Survey says: 97% of climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:14 PM GMT on May 07, 2013

Share this Blog
40
+

Two studies done in 2009 and 2010 found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming. But what would a larger sample of the scientific literature show, extended all the way up to 2011? You're invited to help find out, by participating in an anonymous 10-minute survey where you will be reading the abstracts (summaries) of ten randomly selected technical papers on Earth's climate published between 1991 and 2011. The survey was created by physicist John Cook of The Global Change Institute at Australia's University of Queensland. Mr. Cook is the creator of one of my favorite climate change websites, skepticalscience.com. He authored one of our special Earth Day 2013 essays, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change, from which I have pulled Figure 1 below. Mr. Cook is lead author on a new paper called "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," to be published in the next month or so in Environmental Research Letters. The paper analyzes the same papers included in the survey you're asked to participate in, and the researchers plan to compare the results. Each of these 11,944 papers written by 29,083 authors and published in 1,980 journals included the keywords "global warming" or "global climate change" in their listing in the ISI Web of Science database. After reading each abstract, you will be asked to rate the level of endorsement within the abstract for the proposition that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is causing global warming. There will be these choices available on a drop-down menu for you to choose from:

1. Explicit Endorsement with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing more than half of global warming.
2. Explicit Endorsement without Quantification: abstract explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a given fact.
3. Implicit Endorsement: abstract implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
4. Neutral: abstract doesn't address or mention issue of what's causing global warming.
5. Implicit Rejection: abstract implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming.
6. Explicit Rejection without Quantification: abstract explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming.
7. Explicit Rejection with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming.
8. Don't know.

When you are all done, the survey will let you know how your average score for the ten papers compares to the rating given by the authors. The survey took me about 8 minutes to complete, and it was interesting to see the tremendous diversity of research being done on global warming in my random sample. I'll post about Mr. Cook's results when his paper is published in the next few months.


Figure 1. Two recent studies have sought to measure the level of agreement in the scientific community in different ways and arrived at strikingly consistent results. A 2009 study led by Peter Doran surveyed over 3,000 Earth scientists and found that as the scientists' expertise in climate change grew, so did the level of agreement about human-caused global warming. For the most qualified experts, climate scientists actively publishing peer-reviewed research, there was 97% agreement. Alternatively, a 2010 analysis led by William Anderegg compiled a database of scientists from public declarations on climate change, both supporting and rejecting the consensus. Among scientists who had published peer-reviewed climate research, there was 97% agreement. However, it is worth pointing out that science is not decided by majority vote. This is articulated concisely by John Reisman who says: "Science is not a democracy. It is a dictatorship. It is evidence that does the dictating." Figure and text taken from Mr. John Cook's special Earth Day essay, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change.

Thanks for participating!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 527 - 477

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Quoting VR46L:
me gigle

LMAO that made laugh out loud


LAWL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
526. VR46L
Quoting Torito:


Get the black and white images out too. its time to party. XD



LMAO that made me laugh out loud
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tropics trying to act innocent here...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rjsenterp:
Considering that 100% of climatologists get their funding from the government to further their studies, I'm not surprised. What I find funny is that everytime an extreme weather event happens it has to be due to people induced global warming. No, in some cases these things just happen.

But the true genius of the climatologists is that they used to be all about global warming. But now they say that in some cases global warming results in global cooling. That way that get their funding no matter what happens. Pure genius. But of course us 53%ers pay their salaries which annoys me. Get a real job.


Can you source that statement please..
TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


There ya go !;)

92B Funktop



94S funktop






Get the black and white images out too. its time to party. XD

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Considering that 100% of climatologists get their funding from the government to further their studies, I'm not surprised. What I find funny is that everytime an extreme weather event happens it has to be due to people induced global warming. No, in some cases these things just happen.

But the true genius of the climatologists is that they used to be all about global warming. But now they say that in some cases global warming results in global cooling. That way that get their funding no matter what happens. Pure genius. But of course us 53%ers pay their salaries which annoys me. Get a real job.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:


Oh, oil it up a bit, Neap. You're squeakin'.
Have a good 'un.
Yep: the graphic's designers definitely assumed too much. But I hope nobody here is offended if they don't dumb it down for them...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
520. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I see the same bickering with the same cast of characters. Sigh.

I guess weather got too boring to blog about...


There ya go !;)

92B Funktop



94S funktop




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Look at the Wind direction


It could just be a tropical low. Because the GFS as the possible TS hitting shear, cooler waters, and Cuba.

Maybe Accuweather is forcasting it's remnants?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
waiting for the invests in the indian ocean to update satellite images at 11:00 EST...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at the Wind direction
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It says thunderstorms. Nothing about a TD
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4379
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Exactly KoritheMan.One can never say never.I wished I understood weather better and could understand the language you all speak.But that's why I am glad I have all you guys and gals to keep me up to date on the tropics.You are the greatest.


We are ready to jump on the first storm we see xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather have a TS or TD in SFL on June 1

Link


It says thunderstorms. Nothing about a TD
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I see the same bickering with the same cast of characters. Sigh.

I guess weather got too boring to blog about...



LOL i already posted all the satellite images...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather have a TS or TD in SFL on June 1

Link


That is really far out, wait for some consistancy so we know if it is true or not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Accuweather have a TS or TD in SFL on June 1

Link
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4379
Quoting K8eCane:



that was an amazing forecast



Indeed, it was :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Torito:



Forcast




Actual track



that was an amazing forecast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:


Oh, oil it up a bit, Neap. You're squeakin'.
Have a good 'un.


But Nea hates oil XD
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873



Forcast




Actual track
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

Eventually it will be.

Regardless, I suspect 2013 will be 2013. :)
Exactly KoritheMan.One can never say never.I wished I understood weather better and could understand the language you all speak.But that's why I am glad I have all you guys and gals to keep me up to date on the tropics.You are the greatest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
505. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Morning VR46L..
Dennis was a pain for sure..
But we made through quite well actually..
I personally don't want another Cape Verde strom like Ivan..

Beautiful pic of Ivan's Eyewall from ISS..






And if anyone tells you a hurricaine can't make a right turn just before landfall, you can show them this MIMIC Image..
Approx. 100 mile ..



Good Morning to you ... Yes Ivan was a terrible storm .. and I hope you are spared something like that again !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:
We truly have come a long way. I guess Im a throwback to the era when they were all willy nilly out there and nobody knew where they were going



Our ablility to track hurricanes was shown during hurricane sandy, it was predicted within 20 miles of where the landfall occured.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
503. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, the graphic's designers obviously assumed that those interested enough to view it in the first place would be likely to understand percentages. You know: (75/77) = 0.974, and 0.974 x 100 = 97.4, and 97.4 rounded down to the next whole number and converted to a percentage is 97%.

Guess they assumed too much, huh?


Oh, oil it up a bit, Neap. You're squeakin'.
Have a good 'un.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Actually, according to the Doran survey, that should be 75 of 77...
Well, the graphic's designers obviously assumed that those interested enough to view it in the first place would be likely to understand percentages. You know: (75/77) = 0.974, and 0.974 x 100 = 97.4, and 97.4 rounded down to the next whole number and converted to a percentage is 97%.

Guess they assumed too much, huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We truly have come a long way. I guess Im a throwback to the era when they were all willy nilly out there and nobody knew where they were going
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanes2018:
hurricane!!!!


How many hours out is that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Torito:


Thats what the hurricane hunters are for :)


God bless those brave souls
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:


I support hurricane research


Thats what the hurricane hunters are for :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:
What grates on my nerves is knowing when one is out there swirling but not knowing if its going to slam you or go elsewhere


I support hurricane research
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What grates on my nerves is knowing when one is out there swirling but not knowing if its going to slam you or go elsewhere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Strong high pressure building over Atlantic





Strong High could spell more landfalls.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873

Quoting mrsalagranny:
I pray you are not right.That was a devastating two years.
Eventually it will be.

Regardless, I suspect 2013 will be 2013. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I suspect this year will resemble 2004 & 2005 landfall wise.
I pray you are not right.That was a devastating two years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Strong high pressure building over Atlantic



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:
Bastardi on a rant this morning. Warning: pro-AGW'ers - Do Not Read !!

Link
A) I can't say that I pay much attention to Bastardi's frequent--and increasingly incoherent--Twitter tantrums. Lots of reasons for that, of course, but mostly because it pains me to see a supposed professional meteorologist still confused about the difference between "weather" and "climate".

B) What exactly is a "pro-AGW'er"? Someone who insists on keeping the fossil fuel-only paradigm alive for ideological and/or financial motives is obviously someone who wants the planet to warm. As such, why would you warn them away from JB? After all, he's one of them, no?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


Watch closly to the Mimic and you will see Ivan move to the right at landfall..
Approx. 100 miles..


Saw it.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873

Quoting hurricanes2018:
hurricane!!!!
The somewhat broad nature of the isobars suggests some southerly shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


I remember aquak..
Just Ivan was a nightmare for me.. :)


6 years ago, on memorial day weekend, I went to Destin with loved ones, my first time ever to the gulf. Most shoreline homes had been rebuilt, some had not. It's, scarey.

So peace to all of you, as like K8ecane, I am flat out of xanax, and can not stay for further elaborations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Not sure about the MJO. Good question though.
Quoting stormchaser19:

Maritime Continent is this:


Thanks both of you I really appreciated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
486. beell
Actually, according to the Doran survey, that should be 75 of 77...
:-0


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:

I suspect this year will resemble 2004 & 2005 landfall wise.

One more thing- looking at soon-to-come temp anomalies north of CONUS and trying to understand Levi's latest video, I do not disagree with you. Many trends point to your words being correct. I just hope not.

K8cane- good to see you.



you too Aquak.... Be Safe!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanes2018:
hurricane!!!!



Pressure looks low for a hurricane....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2012 went out with a bang too. Hurricane sandy will be remembered forever.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hurricane!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:

I suspect this year will resemble 2004 & 2005 landfall wise.

One more thing- looking at soon-to-come temp anomalies north of CONUS and trying to understand Levi's latest video, I do not disagree with you. Many trends point to your words being correct. I just hope not.

K8cane- good to see you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting lobdelse81:
I still find it interesting that even with last year's 19 named systems and 10 hurricanes, not one of the hurricanes got to peak out with maximum sustained winds greater than 115mph.  Even several El Nino years with their suppressed overall activity have managed to crank out something stronger.
I find it more remarkable that we didn't even have one major hurricane day.

Also, most tropical activity in 2012 was concentrated in the subtropics, with only Ernesto and Sandy attaining hurricane strength of south 20N.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


I remember aquak..
Just Ivan was a nightmare for me.. :)



I hated hugo too...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:
Bastardi on a rant this morning. Warning: pro-AGW'ers - Do Not Read !!

Link


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:


Or a charlie, frances, jean, rita, wilma, dean, felix....


I remember aquak..
Just Ivan was a nightmare for me.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 527 - 477

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
78 °F
Scattered Clouds