Survey says: 97% of climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:14 PM GMT on May 07, 2013

Share this Blog
40
+

Two studies done in 2009 and 2010 found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming. But what would a larger sample of the scientific literature show, extended all the way up to 2011? You're invited to help find out, by participating in an anonymous 10-minute survey where you will be reading the abstracts (summaries) of ten randomly selected technical papers on Earth's climate published between 1991 and 2011. The survey was created by physicist John Cook of The Global Change Institute at Australia's University of Queensland. Mr. Cook is the creator of one of my favorite climate change websites, skepticalscience.com. He authored one of our special Earth Day 2013 essays, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change, from which I have pulled Figure 1 below. Mr. Cook is lead author on a new paper called "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," to be published in the next month or so in Environmental Research Letters. The paper analyzes the same papers included in the survey you're asked to participate in, and the researchers plan to compare the results. Each of these 11,944 papers written by 29,083 authors and published in 1,980 journals included the keywords "global warming" or "global climate change" in their listing in the ISI Web of Science database. After reading each abstract, you will be asked to rate the level of endorsement within the abstract for the proposition that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is causing global warming. There will be these choices available on a drop-down menu for you to choose from:

1. Explicit Endorsement with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing more than half of global warming.
2. Explicit Endorsement without Quantification: abstract explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a given fact.
3. Implicit Endorsement: abstract implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
4. Neutral: abstract doesn't address or mention issue of what's causing global warming.
5. Implicit Rejection: abstract implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming.
6. Explicit Rejection without Quantification: abstract explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming.
7. Explicit Rejection with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming.
8. Don't know.

When you are all done, the survey will let you know how your average score for the ten papers compares to the rating given by the authors. The survey took me about 8 minutes to complete, and it was interesting to see the tremendous diversity of research being done on global warming in my random sample. I'll post about Mr. Cook's results when his paper is published in the next few months.


Figure 1. Two recent studies have sought to measure the level of agreement in the scientific community in different ways and arrived at strikingly consistent results. A 2009 study led by Peter Doran surveyed over 3,000 Earth scientists and found that as the scientists' expertise in climate change grew, so did the level of agreement about human-caused global warming. For the most qualified experts, climate scientists actively publishing peer-reviewed research, there was 97% agreement. Alternatively, a 2010 analysis led by William Anderegg compiled a database of scientists from public declarations on climate change, both supporting and rejecting the consensus. Among scientists who had published peer-reviewed climate research, there was 97% agreement. However, it is worth pointing out that science is not decided by majority vote. This is articulated concisely by John Reisman who says: "Science is not a democracy. It is a dictatorship. It is evidence that does the dictating." Figure and text taken from Mr. John Cook's special Earth Day essay, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change.

Thanks for participating!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 27 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 — Blog Index

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



See the yellow in the same spot as the other point of interest??? it just changed from a 1% to 3% in the next 24 hours.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
The last several years have featured atleast an invest in the western Caribbean come the 3rd week of May.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Torito:


I agree :D from the last blog...



Pulse in the carribian.

P.S. thanks funnelvortex :D


Yeah, myself and others posted those MJO maps yesterday and on last Friday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Expect those chances to increase big time later this week and into next week.


I agree :D from the last blog...



Pulse in the carribian.

P.S. thanks funnelvortex :D
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Anything that forms in the Caribbean will likely target FL and the Bahamas.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Torito:


already chances of a "named storm" out there.



Expect those chances to increase big time later this week and into next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Welcome to hurricane season!



already chances of a "named storm" out there.



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
17. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Thanks Dr Masters. Man, I just read your story "Hunting Hugo: Awesome, Terrifying, Supernatural" again for the 1st time in quite a while. Your Weather Channel should do a story on this or have they done it before and I missed it? I would love to see you tell the story with some of the other crew firsthand. Enjoy your day!!!

Quoted from the last blog:



Let's hope it stays looking that clean!!!

An incredible story by Dr Masters about his flight into Hugo for those might not have read it before.

Link









The cockpit G-meter, pegged at 5.6 G's and -3.9 G's. Some serious G's for a bird that size!!!


National Geographic's "Air Crash Investigation" series will have a full 1-hour show on the flight in 2014. Six people on the flight (including me) will be interviewed, and there will be never-before seen video taken from the nose camera of the P-3 during the penetration. There will be a CGI sequence of stuff flying around the cabin during the turbulence, and they have hired actors to re-enact the flight, complete with a mock cockpit of the P-3 in a studio in Toronto.

Jeff Masters

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Welcome to hurricane season!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Torito:


I turned off the filters, hold on ill fix it.


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Gearsts:
Why is the loop so fuzzy?


I turned off the filters, hold on ill fix it.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Thanks Dr Masters. Man, I just read your story "Hunting Hugo: Awesome, Terrifying, Supernatural" again for the 1st time in quite a while. Your Weather Channel should do a story on this or have they done it before and I missed it? I would love to see you tell the story with some of the other crew firsthand. Enjoy your day!!!

Quoted from the last blog:

Quoting stormchaser19:
NOAA43 (NOAA P-3) is empty upon returning from routine maintenance last week. Ms. Piggy's Hurricane instrumentation installation begins today!

We are preparing for Hurricane Season, are you ready??

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1.



Let's hope it stays looking that clean!!!

An incredible story by Dr Masters about his flight into Hugo for those who might not have read it before.

Link









The cockpit G-meter, pegged at 5.6 G's and -3.9 G's. Some serious G's for a bird that size!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i usually use GFS...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
-
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316


Found this in an old blog, figured i would post it since it helps with a general amount of reliablilty behind each model...

POOR NOGAPS xD-
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Torito:
94S Getting some rotation now.

Why is the loop so fuzzy?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Yay, moderate rain falling here now :D
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Jeff Masters, any newer survey data? Just wondering...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
94S Getting some rotation now.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doc!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doc!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 27 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
34 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron