Gamma has formed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:28 PM GMT on November 18, 2005

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Hello everyone, it's Shaun again.

Gamma is here!

A hurricane hunter investigating the remnants of Twenty-seven discovered the system has re-organized into a broad area of low pressure. The aircraft also observed winds of 49 knots at 1500 feet along with a couple other areas of 45 knots winds north of the center. These two bits of information have lead to the issuing of advisories for Tropical Storm Gamma.

Gamma has formed in an area of strong wind shear (15-25 kt) and models forecast the wind shear to increase over the next few days.

Models handle the storm in very different ways. What the models do agree on is the strong high pressure north of Gamma is expected to weaken over the next few days. A trough is then expected to move into the Southeast. The official NHC forecast reflects the GFDL which turns the storm towards Florida. But it doesn't not represent the GFDL in some way as the GFDL takes the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Some of the other models do not even strengthen the storm due to the high wind shear that is forecast, and the GFS takes it east across the Caribbean.

The moral of the story is that it is too early to tell what the storm is going to do. We will have to wait for a few more model runs to make a better guess.

I tend to be a little pessimistic on the intensity of these types of storms until some further development occurs, and you can definately see uncertainty in the NHC discussion.

Nonetheless, it is quite impressive to take a look at the GFDL in the long term to see the heck of a Nor-easter over the Northeast with the help of the remnants of Gamma.

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175. TampaSteve
5:38 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
...and the hits just keep on coming!!!
174. 7daysnopowerfrancis
11:40 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
there has to be an end to this madness
Member Since: October 17, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 387
173. hurricanechaser
9:21 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Link

soory about that..lol..goodnight all :)
172. hurricanechaser
9:19 AM GMT on November 19, 2005

Not sure if anyones still up..just wanted to leave the link to the latest forecast track from the NHC regarding Gamma that just came out taking her south of Fl.now trending away from the keys as of late.. Hope everyone has a great weekend..goodnight all.
Link
171. hurricanechaser
8:19 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
oops...Ladychemist..sorry, more typos..lol

thanks again.
170. hurricanechaser
8:19 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Ladtchemist,

Thanks so much for the thoughtful comments..I will do just that..I hope you have a great weekend. Ill try to check bk in from time to time. YOu guys make this community what it is.



169. theboldman
6:49 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
whats up everyone
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
168. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:23 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
well i am out of her so night to you all and if snowboy come back on would any of you tell him to put me down for 970-990mb thank you and good night to ever one
167. billsfaninsofla
4:00 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
One...no kidding.......do not trust them....sorry..I understand their position, they have to be "accountable" ..that's what they say....yes, tell people to prepare for the worst, hope for the best....times and storms are not what we have known as "normal" now....times, she be a changing.....

I rely on sites like this, not local news or NHC..where are you One?
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
166. mouseybabe
3:57 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
just checked the 10pm update, and they are optimistic about it not strengthening... i hope they're right, but like some others here, i will hope for the best but plan for the worst... and on that note, i am off to bed... have a good night everyone...
165. mouseybabe
3:55 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
7days seems a bit confused... jeanne and francis did more damage fpl-wise in the north county last year, but wilma was worse in the south... we were 3 days no power for francis, 3 hours for jeanne.. 7 days for wilma (and my son in hollywood was over two weeks w/o power)... just because one place got it more than another at one time doesn't mean others haven't had a rougher time this year... it wasn't that fpl did repairs faster, it was that the storm was worse in the south... just my two cents worth
164. onestopoutlets
3:34 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
I agree with bills...they said the same thing with Wilma and look what it did and came on the coast as.
163. billsfaninsofla
3:30 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
sorry Baha.......don't know if I trust their conservative outlook..hope they are right.
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
162. billsfaninsofla
3:23 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Baha....absolutely.....be prepared....short story, going back to Andrew 1992......forecasting was a bit more primitive then, I had 30 gallons of water, plus you name it everything else...my neighbors laughed.....well, had Andrew not wobbled Ft Laud could've been Homestead....you can never over-prepare.....after watching Homestead, neighbors never laughed again....
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
161. BahaHurican
3:18 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Link

The new discussion is up.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
160. billsfaninsofla
3:17 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Code...yep, absolutely.....I swear, I'm still working on my Wilma water supply, but more today, just in case....ran low on paper platers, got them...filled gas cans, most important, don't know where you are, but gas stations pretty active tonight...people can be stupid....they will be waiting in line for water after the storm,claiming they didn't know........
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
159. BahaHurican
3:17 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Billsf. . . .

All I can say is, I'm with the people who are doing the prep. We've had years when, like Hurricane Michelle, we boarded up and bought water and everything, got into the lockdown position expecting at least category 2 winds. In the end the power didn't even go off until after the eye was gone and was on again in 24 hours.

But I'd rather be ready than be like some people in the Bahamas during Wilma, who thought it would be only a TS or a minimal Cat. 1 and had to swim for their lives in the middle of the storm because of the storm surge and heavy rains . . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
158. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
3:17 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
no hurricane this time around this may be some winds up to 40 to 50 mph and that wound be all from this storm and big snow storm next week
157. billsfaninsofla
3:12 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Gamma.......we're filled up on gas cans and food...biggest thing for us is to have to relocate....we don't dare ride it out here...depends on how strong...I have plenty of everything, perhaps except nerves at this point
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
156. code1
3:10 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Smart move Gamma. I emptied gas into cars, thawed gallon jugs of ice to put jugs (I keep them now!), ran generator for an hour with load and put away last of plywood this past weekend. Hope I won't have to do what you are doing later in Dec., and hope for all of S. FL for this to be a non-event. It is always better/easier to prepare before the masses. :)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
155. billsfaninsofla
3:09 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Baha..don't bite your tongue....we all need to give them heck...I don't care what anyone says, Gamma was Gamma at 11 am (perhaps earlier)....they didn't name it until 3 PM, which forced numerous South Florida cities to call emergency meetings at 4PM to go into "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Alert"......stupid......and just watch, maybe they've learned , but I doubt it, how long it will take for TS or I hope not Hurricane warnings to go up.....
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
154. BahaHurican
3:06 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
I'm just waiting for the discussion to update. Somehow I think that may take a while . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
153. seflagamma
3:05 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Wow, nice to see so many familiar names again. Welcome back. I really can't stay on late; got work again early tomorrow. When I got off around 7pm tonight I did fill up my car; it was really low anyway and needed it. Then I stop at Publix on way home to replenish my water and sodas and papergoods. Stupid me, I gave away most of my non-parishable goods a week ago along with a few other suplies to people that really needed them. But I am sure we can make it a week with food and drinks. If it continues to develope must get 8 bags of ice to fill my really good big cooler (keeps for 5-6days). Also hubby must get those gas cans refilled. Too much work to do; thought it was over for the year! LOL..
If it is still coming tomorrow I know the stores will be crazy when I get off tomorrow night that is why I did it tonight; just to be a little safe!
I will be lurking for awhile. Again, good to see everyone.
Gamma (the good one)
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
152. BahaHurican
3:01 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
I keep wanting to bite my tongue when people say "it's only a TS". Wilma was "only a TS" in a very similar location a couple weeks ago; 24 hours later she was the strongest recorded storm in the Atlantic basin.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
151. billsfaninsofla
2:59 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
hi...saw the posts about the tarps...even with all the rain we received lately tarps have done their job, but , a big BUT, my husband has the tarps tied to the hurricane awnings which we plan to put down, but like coco's sister, 2/3 of our roof gone to bare wood.....and please forgive me if I've duplicated a post.....just stressed out. I think we'd be OK with this storm maybe not boarding up, to try to keep the tarps in place to save whatever we can, but some much twisted debris all around.......any advice? (we're trying to get what we can out, just in case, but)
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
150. LakeWorthFinn
2:59 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
to all tose who complain about FPL, welcome to Lake Worth. We are totally independent of FPL - and totally scr...d, some people still without power!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
149. sebastianjer
2:55 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
CCFL, they did and it lokks like they slowed it down too, later in the day Monday before landfall.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
148. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:55 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
ok all the 10pm up date is now her winds up to 150mp cat 4 hurricane 905mb not this jokeing


her it is 10 pm winds 45 mph 1006mb movieing NW at 4 mph and 29.70in this is the the right one
147. CoconutCreekFLA
2:52 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
I think they moved the cone south
Link
146. tornadoty
2:51 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Dirunal max should be taking effect.
145. ProgressivePulse
2:42 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Last frames in the loop, appears to be flaring up a bit.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
144. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:42 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
you mean the 30th and any one see snowboy at all he need to put me in for 970-990mb
143. CoconutCreekFLA
2:40 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
There is supposed to be an update at 10pm. Hopefully, gamma decided to go home for Thanksgiving!

Yes, hurricane season ends on the 31st but at this rate I wouldn't be surprised by a Christmas storm. :)
142. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:37 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
is it next week the last week of the hurricane year?
141. ProgressivePulse
2:37 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Try to get a little vacation and look what happens, I can't freakin believe it, anyone's input on the future of Gamma. Stressed out West Palm Resident here, Flying home on Sunday evening.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
140. CoconutCreekFLA
2:35 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Goodnight, 7 days!
139. dcw
2:35 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
If anyone wants to forecast for the -hopefully- last storm of the season...Link
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
138. 7daysnopowerfrancis
2:35 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Alas, my 2 year is demanding a bubble bath. I must attend to my parental duties....

Have a great night all.
Member Since: October 17, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 387
137. CoconutCreekFLA
2:32 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Not power-dance-interruptus!!
136. 7daysnopowerfrancis
2:31 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
FPL played a nasty joke on us. We had power for 1/2 hour after Wilma. Then it went off again for 2 days. It was embarrassing. I did the power dance, and they took that away from me.
Member Since: October 17, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 387
135. CoconutCreekFLA
2:30 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
That was definitely a nice thing. Neighbors really pulled together. We did the same thing. We just put our patio table on the driveway and had communal dinners and lunches every day. The kids loved it. I didn't mind the electricity so much but I hated the boil water order. We didn't have any water pressure for a couple days and then you couldn't drink it. I had wanted to make use of the time to do some good cleaning but didn't want to put that water all over my house.

I don't know about the power. By me it is obviously a temporary fix. The poles all snapped and they just have the wires sort of hanging everywhere. They are still using generators at the traffic lights.
134. wpb05
2:29 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
well, I don't........live at summit and military, but not in lake worth, and on the same grid as a fire station...only lost power for three days last time
133. subtropic
2:28 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
LMAO 7daysnopowerfrancis!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
132. 7daysnopowerfrancis
2:26 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
It will if you live in the People's Republic of Lake Worth.
Member Since: October 17, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 387
131. wpb05
2:25 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
this thing will not knock power out...will be a quick weak TS over us
130. sebastianjer
2:24 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hi Finn, sorry didn't get your mail about gas until it was too late to help you anyway.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
129. ladychemist
2:24 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
hurricanechaser,

you said: "I'm sorry guys that I type so poorly..its annoying for me to read my comments and see so many typos"

My comment--keep feeding and quit rereading. I believe your audience appreciates your informative commentary and fully comprehends your posts, "proofed" or not.

Thanks for taking the time to share your well researched and insightful thoughts.

LC
128. code1
2:24 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
The tarps do pretty well believe it or not in a TS, if it is not too strong.
Hi everyone!!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
127. 7daysnopowerfrancis
2:22 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
I am a coach, and one of my cheerleaders left her cooler which supplied water at a football game. She repeatedly forgot to pick it up to my benefit. It kept ice for four days straight. She's never getting it back now.

We had constant block parties because with no fences around, the neighborhood went from yard to yard to get what we needed whether it was a hot shower (you really appreciate those after 3 days of cold ones) or the generator that was using the TV to entertain the kids.
Member Since: October 17, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 387
126. CoconutCreekFLA
2:22 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hi Lakeworth! I haven't been around since Wilma. It's nice to see everyone back.
125. CoconutCreekFLA
2:21 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
Glad to hear that about the tarps. My sister's roof was down to bare wood in parts. Operation Blue Roof just put a tarp on yesterday. Just in time!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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