Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:28 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Hello everyone, it's Shaun again.
Gamma is here!
A hurricane hunter investigating the remnants of Twenty-seven discovered the system has re-organized into a broad area of low pressure. The aircraft also observed winds of 49 knots at 1500 feet along with a couple other areas of 45 knots winds north of the center. These two bits of information have lead to the issuing of advisories for Tropical Storm Gamma.
Gamma has formed in an area of strong wind shear (15-25 kt) and models forecast the wind shear to increase over the next few days.
Models handle the storm in very different ways. What the models do agree on is the strong high pressure north of Gamma is expected to weaken over the next few days. A trough is then expected to move into the Southeast. The official NHC forecast reflects the GFDL which turns the storm towards Florida. But it doesn't not represent the GFDL in some way as the GFDL takes the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Some of the other models do not even strengthen the storm due to the high wind shear that is forecast, and the GFS takes it east across the Caribbean.
The moral of the story is that it is too early to tell what the storm is going to do. We will have to wait for a few more model runs to make a better guess.
I tend to be a little pessimistic on the intensity of these types of storms until some further development occurs, and you can definately see uncertainty in the NHC discussion.
Nonetheless, it is quite impressive to take a look at the GFDL in the long term to see the heck of a Nor-easter over the Northeast with the help of the remnants of Gamma.
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