Extreme Drought to Flood in Georgia: Weather Whiplash Strikes Again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:57 PM GMT on May 06, 2013

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The remarkable storm that brought record-breaking May snows and cold to the Midwest last week continues to spin over the Southeast U.S. The storm is unleashing flooding rains, bringing a case of "Weather Whiplash" to Georgia: flooding where extreme drought had existed just a few months ago. The storm formed when a loop in the jet stream of extreme amplitude got cut off from the main flow of the jet over the weekend, forming a "cutoff low" that is now slowly spinning down as it drifts east over the Southeast U.S. On Sunday, the storm dumped 3.4" of rain on Atlanta, Georgia--that city's sixth heaviest May calendar day rain storm since record keeping began in 1878. Remarkably, the rains were also able to bring rivers in Central Georgia above flood stage. This portion of the country was in "exceptional drought"--the worst category of drought--at the beginning of 2013.


Figure 1. The record May snowstorm that hit the Midwest U.S. on May 1 - 3, 2013, got cut off from the jet stream and was seen spinning over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, May 5, in this image from NASA's MODIS instrument. The 3.4" of rain that fell on Atlanta, Georgia on May 5 was that city's sixth heaviest May calendar day rainfall since record keeping began in 1878.

Weather Whiplash
Weather Whiplash--a term originally coined by science writer Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org to describe extreme shifts between cold and hot weather--is also a excellent phrase we can use to describe some of the rapid transitions between extreme drought and floods seen in recent years. I brought up a remarkable example in mid-April, when a 200-mile stretch of the Mississippi River north of St. Louis reached damaging major flood levels less than four months after near-record low water levels restricted barge traffic, forcing the Army Corp to blast out rocks from the river bottom to enable navigation. As the climate warms, the new normal in coming decades is going to be more and more extreme "Weather Whiplash" drought-flood cycles like we have seen in the Midwest and in Georgia this year. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. But you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.


Figure 2. Weather Whiplash in Georgia, 2013: the center of the state was in exceptional drought as the beginning of the year, but heavy rains in February, March, and April busted the drought. Heavy May rains have now brought flooding. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Weather Whiplash in the Southeast U.S. more likely due to an intensification of the Bermuda High
This year's "Weather Whiplash" in Georgia is the second time in the past decade the state has gone from exceptional drought to flood. In September 2007, Atlanta, Georgia was in the midst of a 1-in-100 year drought, and was just weeks away from running out of water. Yet just two years later, the drought had been busted, and a phenomenal 1-in-500 year flood ripped through the city, killing ten and causing $500 million in damage. According to a 2011 study by a Duke University-led team of climate scientists, "Changes to the North Atlantic Subtropical High and Its Role in the Intensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States", the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the southeastern United States has more than doubled in recent decades, due to an intensification of the Bermuda High. The scientists found that the Bermuda High, which is centered several hundred miles to the east of the Southeast U.S., has grown more intense during summer and has expanded westwards over the past 30 years. Since high pressure systems are areas of sinking air that discourage precipitation, this has made abnormally dry summers more common over the Southeast U.S. However, in summers when the Bermuda High happens to shift to the east, so that high pressure is not over the Southeast U.S., the stronger winds blowing clockwise around the Bermuda High bring an increased flow of very moist subtropical air from the south to the Southeast U.S., increasing the incidence of abnormally wet summers. Thus, the intensification of the Bermuda High has made extreme droughts and extreme floods more likely over the Southeast U.S. Using climate models, the scientists determined that human-caused global warming was likely the main cause of the significant intensification in the Bermuda High. Thus "Weather Whiplash" between drought and flood will probably become increasingly common in the coming decades over the Southeast U.S.


Figure 3. Observed June-July-August departure of precipitation from average over the SE United States for a 60-yr period (mm day−1). Horizontal dashed lines represent 1 standard deviation of the summer rainfall. Note that summer precipitation extremes exceeding one standard deviation have more than doubled during the most recent 30-year period compared to the previous 30-year period. Image credit: Li et al., 2011, Journal of Climate.

New climate change blog at The Guardian
In these days of steadily decreasing media coverage of climate change (and all science, in general), its good to see a fresh new source of good science appear in a major newspaper. The Guardian, a prominent UK news source, has a new blog called Climate Consensus – The 97%. The primary authors are Dana Nuccitelli of SkepticalScience and John Abraham, Associate Professor at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. The first post at the new blog is titled “Why is Reuters puzzled by global warming’s acceleration?”

Related Links
Don't miss the summary post on last week's remarkable snow storm by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, The Phenomenal May Snowstorm of May 1-3, 2013

Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest: my April 19, 2013 blog post.

Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed: my April 2012 post describing how 20% - 50% of all droughts in the Southeast U.S. are broken by tropical storms or hurricanes.

Study: Global warming is driving increased frequency of extreme wet or dry summer weather in southeast, so droughts and deluges are likely to get worse: October 2010 post by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
LOL Plaza..........Go back one page

Please don't let me be misunderstood!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
That would be incorrect. Global warming is one facet--or symptom, if you will--of climate change. The two terms are not interchangeable by scientists, nor have they ever been; while some may be confused about the terminology, climatologists certainly aren't.

I'm very pleased to see that the Guardian is filling in where other outlets, swayed by perhaps by a lazy desire to provide "balance" where none truly exists, have become lax in their journalistic duties. Kudos to them for providing an invaluable service...

Hi!
It doesn't matter what you, or them, or it call it.
Its a fact now new to life on the third stone from the sun!
Global warming, climate change. Big problems coming and all that the opposition have on their side is time in the form of, "it wont probably happen in you lifetime?"
If you have a problem with the weather, you can call it climate change, as its going to cover most scenarios for the foreseeable future.
If you have a problem surviving then you can call it global warming.
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter how the brand is marked on the product! Planet Earth is on the road to change and in a big way.
Given a few more years and those of you or maybe even the older ones like me will start to see things straight out od Si-Fi.
Tip of the iceberg? Well you might have a problem finding one of those soon as well.
Then again we might all be wrong and its baton down the hatches for the next ice age!
Which ever way you, me, us, them, it looks at it! Times they are a changing.
Oh Hi Pedley!
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Quoting Dakster:


Winning lotto numbers.


I wish, that's too hard. Hurts my widow head.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Already posted it, awhile back. Requests?

@176


Winning lotto numbers.
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Loop
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2 big swirls for conus....

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Yep Allan.........Francis and Jeanne in 2004, and the B**ch Wilma in 2005
If I remember correctly Frances was not a major when it struck Florida but I still understand.for what I see Wilma was the worst for you.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4257
Quoting PlazaRed:

Animals!
About 1968!
Pedley, where for art thou?


Already posted it, awhile back. Requests?

@176
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Today in History:

May 6, 1976... 37 years ago

A strong 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck Italy, the eastern Alps near Venice.
The deadly quake was strongly felt all across northern Italy and many other neighboring counties like Switzerland and Austria
939 people die, over 2,400 people were injured and over 157,000 homeless.
Lots of damage in Venezia, Italia

The quke struck at 20:00 UTC or 4:00 PM EDT
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting allancalderini:
I know its until 2004 and I think from the start because another majors that hit Florida were Jeanne and Dennis and Wilma.
Yep Allan.........Francis and Jeanne in 2004, and the B**ch Wilma in 2005
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Animals!
About 1968!
Pedley, where for art thou?
LOL Plaza..........Go back one page
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Quoting Grothar:
I know its until 2004 and I think from the start because another majors that hit Florida were Jeanne and Dennis and Wilma.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4257
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Coldest May day in Florida that I can remember today.
Yes Cybr....Very cool morning.I was shocked when I walked outside this morning
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh Lord, Please don't let me be mis-understood

Animals!
About 1968!
Pedley, where for art thou?
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Today was an awesome day for sure. Not too hot, not too cool, and a tad overcast to help with the bright/hot sun.
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Coldest May day in Florida that I can remember today.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It is sad. We desperately need a fuel alternative.


We have plenty of them - just need to be willing to invest in the infrastructure to utilize them.

IMHO, I believe that multiple fuel and alt-fuel technologies should be utilized. Not just one, for many reasons. Too bad the automotive and fuel industry just won't let that happen.

I have planted many trees in my yard as well. One area was so arid during the South Florida dry season my grass turned dark brown and it always very hot. Now that an Oak, Mango, Avocado, and Loquat trees have all reached maturity it is a pleasant place to be, plus I get to enjoy fruit every so often.
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
PRC143-145-070230-
/O.COR.TJSJ.FF.W.0005.130506T2037Z-130507T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 PM AST MON MAY 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA
VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 430 PM AST...VEGA ALTA EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED ROUTE 620 IN
BARRIO CANDELARIA IN VEGA ALTA CLOSED TO RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS.
THE CIBUCO RIVER IS ALSO RISING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE WITH A CREST NEAR 16.5 FEET. LOW LYING AREAS AND
HIGHWAYS ALONG THE CIBUCO RIVER AND MAVILLA RIVERS IN VEGA ALTA
AND VEGA BAJA ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6633 1837 6633 1835 6637 1835 6639
1836 6639 1837 6640 1849 6641 1850 6636

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14231
GFS is forecasting below normal wind shear in western caribbean at 384 hours, but is very stupid take this forecast as legit!!!

Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
179 RitaEvac: The Ecuadorian government is currently planning to sell an enormous area of pristine rainforest to oil companies. Amazon Rainforest Up for Auction
183 RitaEvac: The government in Ecuador made a pitch to Chinese oil companies in Beijing last week as part of an effort to auction off more than three million hectares -- that's more than 11,500 square miles -- of Amazonian rainforest.

Ecuador vs Chevron in which the Ecuadoran legislature allowed itself to be bought in a manner that limited Texaco's liability to millions of dollars, which the Chevron subsidiary used as permission to create billions of dollars of environmental damage and cleanup costs.

Just remember that when corporations such as Monsanto, WRGrace, Chevron, etc are sponsoring PublicBroadcastingSystem shows, they're also in a legal battle over the health effects of workplace pollution and the ensuing cost of environmental cleanup.
The instant the lawsuits are decided, their sponsorships cease.
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197. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Big upper low


Its got a classic comma look to it ...
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Big upper low
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Levi32:


Except the MJO wasn't anywhere close to the Caribbean during the last two weeks when the GFS was being funny in the Caribbean.

Here's where my website's model archive can be useful.

This is the 384hr GFS forecast from 18z April 28th:



Mischievous right? Looks like a lot of convective activity in this area of the world.

Except that the MJO wasn't even close. That batch of convection in the Caribbean was a random, spurious area in the middle of the sinking portion of the MJO wave.



So the GFS hasn't been showing these things because the MJO will be there, though I don't doubt more disturbances will show up once the end of the model run reaches the last week of May when the MJO will be arriving there. Even then they will be almost useless. The GFS ensemble mean will be far more useful, and if I make videos, that is what you will see me using the most.


Yeah, I agree about the ensembles. They are very useful and I don't use them quite enough.

Anyway, it still doesn't change my original statement that we should have something to watch in that area of the world towards the end of May/beginning of June for the 4th year in a row. Actually, I take that back. Arlene in 2011 wasn't until the end of June and it didn't develop until it crossed the Yucatan. However, that's a great place to look for early season development anyway. We had a disturbance there last year that ended up not developing, but was an invest nonetheless.

Alex 2010:



Edit: And actually, Alex wasn't a disturbance until the middle of June. Anyway, point being that's a great area for disturbances early.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It seems different to me than just normal "ghost storms" or ghost disturbances. The fact that the MJO should be in that area of the world makes it a different situation to me.


Except the MJO forecast wasn't anywhere close to the Caribbean during the last two weeks when the GFS was being funny in the Caribbean.

Here's where my website's model archive can be useful.

This is the 384hr GFS forecast from 18z April 28th:



Mischievous right? Looks like a lot of convective activity in this area of the world.

Except that the MJO forecast wasn't even close. That batch of convection in the Caribbean was a random, spurious area in the middle of the sinking portion of the forecasted MJO wave.



So the GFS hasn't been showing these things because the MJO will be there, though I don't doubt more disturbances will show up once the end of the model run reaches the last week of May, when the MJO will be arriving there. Even then they will be almost useless. The GFS ensemble mean will be far more useful, and if I make videos, that is what you will see me using the most.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
That would be incorrect. Global warming is one facet--or symptom, if you will--of climate change. The two terms are not interchangeable by scientists, nor have they ever been; while some may be confused about the terminology, climatologists certainly aren't.

I'm very pleased to see that the Guardian is filling in where other outlets, swayed by perhaps by a lazy desire to provide "balance" where none truly exists, have become lax in their journalistic duties. Kudos to them for providing an invaluable service...
Guess you are wrong southern illinois.. The king has spoken...!!!
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Quoting OrchidGrower:


I guess the rest of us will have to start planting our own forests! I've planted over 125 trees and palms on my little patch of South Florida, and just received 57 more palms.

Seriously, I DO think a lot more tree planting will be needed to capture some portion of airborne carbon. It's a shame nonprofits don't have the funds to buy up some of the Amazon that's being auctioned off. So sad....


It is sad. We desperately need a fuel alternative.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OrchidGrower:


I guess the rest of us will have to start planting our own forests! I've planted over 125 trees and palms on my little patch of South Florida, and just received 57 more palms.

Seriously, I DO think a lot more tree planting will be needed to capture some portion of airborne carbon. It's a shame nonprofits don't have the funds to buy up some of the Amazon that's being auctioned off. So sad....
I am with you on that, we do need much more planting of tree's..every single one helps.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
The government in Ecuador made a pitch to Chinese oil companies in Beijing last week as part of an effort to auction off more than three million hectares thats more than 11,500 square miles of Amazonian rainforest. The meeting was the fourth leg of a roadshow to publicize the bidding process. Ecuadors ambassador to China called the prospective relationship a win-win, Jonathan Kaiman reported in the Guardian.


I guess the rest of us will have to start planting our own forests! I've planted over 125 trees and palms on my little patch of South Florida, and just received 57 more palms.

Seriously, I DO think a lot more tree planting will be needed to capture some portion of airborne carbon. It's a shame nonprofits don't have the funds to buy up some of the Amazon that's being auctioned off. So sad....
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Quoting sm0k3ymcl3ud:
Shameless advertising... I got here from a link in a severe weather alert header, what the hell guys? I stopped paying for a premium account because of tactics like this... Tisk, tisk...

That is like crying wolf. Eventually people are going to learn to ignore the yellow header at the top of the page, and then they will miss the real life-or-limb warnings. Though I should hope they have a weather radio they can TRUST.

Put simply, with as many people as visit this site; your advertising tactics will almost certainly endanger lives. That's like using the "Emergency Broadcast System" to tell people about a two-for-one sale on khakis at Wal-Mart!


Wait.. There's a two for one at Wal-mArt?

Quoting SouthTampa:
But, will they ship your pants?


Wouldn't you rather ship your own pants?

--

Gro - I don't like that Hurricane return graphic, that means we are overdue for a return...
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I just saw this on another site and I had to share. I'm quite the dog/cat lover, so this makes me all giggly. LOL.



Sorry, back to weather. :-)
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Quoting Levi32:


The 12-15 day GFS has had "something" in the western Caribbean literally almost every run for the last 3 weeks. It is next to useless in the early season because it has a bias of allowing the monsoonal circulation to invade the Caribbean.

If it shows a robust cyclone that leaves the Caribbean Sea, then that might be a clue to the future, but "rumblings in the deep" at the end of the GFS run almost never mean anything this time of year.

All of that said, ever since the twin Indian TCs were forecasted back in late April, I've been saying it could set up the EPAC / Caribbean in late May or early June, so I think we will have to watch that region soon enough.


It seems different to me than just normal "ghost storms" or ghost disturbances. The fact that the MJO should be in that area of the world makes it a different situation to me.
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184. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:
It was really coming down here for a few minutes. I hope they have all the drains cleared out properly.

Rain Song


But ya need it.....

BTW prefer Eurythmics - Here Comes The Rain Again
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The government in Ecuador made a pitch to Chinese oil companies in Beijing last week as part of an effort to auction off more than three million hectares thats more than 11,500 square miles of Amazonian rainforest. The meeting was the fourth leg of a roadshow to publicize the bidding process. Ecuadors ambassador to China called the prospective relationship a win-win, Jonathan Kaiman reported in the Guardian.
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182. VR46L
94SINVEST Navy IR

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It was really coming down here for a few minutes. I hope they have all the drains cleared out properly.

Rain Song
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Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14231
Quoting wxmod:


What about the part of the story that says robust forests need compost and good soil to grow on and they won't grow on bare boreal rock. Further more, the climate will be changing so fast pretty soon that no forest will have a chance, and neither will we. The Amazon will be dead and burned up. There is no bright side to climate change.


And it gets worse: Remember when cattle ranching was the biggest threat to the Amazon rainforest? Now add the relentless quest for oil. The Ecuadorian government is currently planning to sell an enormous area of pristine rainforest to oil companies.

Amazon Rainforest Up for Auction

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178. wxmod
Quoting barbamz:
As Climate Changes, Boreal Forests to Shift North and Relinquish More Carbon Than Expected

May 5, 2013 — It's difficult to imagine how a degree or two of warming will affect a location. Will it rain less? What will happen to the area's vegetation?

New Berkeley Lab research offers a way to envision a warmer future. It maps how Earth's myriad climates -- and the ecosystems that depend on them -- will move from one area to another as global temperatures rise.

The approach foresees big changes for one of the planet's great carbon sponges. Boreal forests will likely shift north at a steady clip this century. Along the way, the vegetation will relinquish more trapped carbon than most current climate models predict.

The research is published online May 5 in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Boreal ecosystems encircle the planet's high latitudes, covering swaths of Canada, Europe, and Russia in coniferous trees and wetlands. This vegetation stores vast amounts of carbon, keeping it out of the atmosphere where it can contribute to climate change.


Read the whole article on Science Daily


What about the part of the story that says robust forests need compost and good soil to grow on and they won't grow on bare boreal rock. Further more, the climate will be changing so fast pretty soon that no forest will have a chance, and neither will we. The Amazon will be dead and burned up. There is no bright side to climate change.
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Locust Fork,Al-yesterday from cold core hail
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Don't Let Me be Misunderstood



Raining again and I thought it had passed..... kinda hard too...
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174. wxmod
Arctic sea ice is falling apart quickly. Here's an article in the Guardian this week.

White House warned on imminent Arctic ice death spiral

National security officials worried by rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice overlook threat of permanent global food shortages

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insig ht/2013/may/02/white-house-arctic-ice-death-spiral


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Oh Lord, Please don't let me be mis-understood
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Ya ever have one of those days? or weeks? I'm having one
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The first solar eclipse of 2013 occurs at the Moon's descending node in eastern Ares. An annular eclipse will be visible from Australia, eastern Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and the Gilbert Islands.


The moon will block the sun in a potentially spectacular solar eclipse this week — a celestial event that will transform the sun into a cosmic "ring of fire" in the daytime sky.

The ring-shaped solar eclipse, known as an annular eclipse, will occur Thursday and Friday (May 9 and 10) Eastern time. Weather permitting, the eclipse will be visible in certain parts of Australia and the Southern Pacific Ocean, where the local time will be Friday.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

School Bus Accident In Northeast Nebraska


NORFOLK, Neb. (AP) - Authorities say 13 students were injured when a school bus collided with a semitrailer at a foggy intersection in northeast Nebraska.

The collision occurred around 7:15 a.m. Monday on U.S. Highway 275 on the west side of Norfolk. Officials say the northbound bus was crossing highway when it and the westbound truck collided. Nebraska State Patrol trooper Justin Koch says neither driver saw the other vehicle because of the dense fog.


Ray Spencenbaugh of Faith Regional Health Services in Norfolk says two of the students suffered serious head injuries and were transferred to Omaha hospitals. He says the other 11 students were expected to be treated and released on Monday.

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
As Climate Changes, Boreal Forests to Shift North and Relinquish More Carbon Than Expected

May 5, 2013 — It's difficult to imagine how a degree or two of warming will affect a location. Will it rain less? What will happen to the area's vegetation?

New Berkeley Lab research offers a way to envision a warmer future. It maps how Earth's myriad climates -- and the ecosystems that depend on them -- will move from one area to another as global temperatures rise.

The approach foresees big changes for one of the planet's great carbon sponges. Boreal forests will likely shift north at a steady clip this century. Along the way, the vegetation will relinquish more trapped carbon than most current climate models predict.

The research is published online May 5 in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Boreal ecosystems encircle the planet's high latitudes, covering swaths of Canada, Europe, and Russia in coniferous trees and wetlands. This vegetation stores vast amounts of carbon, keeping it out of the atmosphere where it can contribute to climate change.


Read the whole article on Science Daily
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Lots of those tracks criss cross Orlando.


Yes, they do.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26057
Quoting MississippiWx:


We've had something to watch in the Western Caribbean in late May/early June the past 3 years. I have been watching with interest the long range GFS which has been hinting at tropical stirrings in this area of the world around that time. It will be something to keep an eye on for sure.


The 12-15 day GFS has had "something" in the western Caribbean literally almost every run for the last 3 weeks. It is next to useless in the early season because it has a bias of allowing the monsoonal circulation to invade the Caribbean.

If it shows a robust cyclone that leaves the Caribbean Sea, then that might be a clue to the future, but "rumblings in the deep" at the end of the GFS run almost never mean anything this time of year.

All of that said, ever since the twin Indian TCs were forecasted back in late April, I've been saying it could set up the EPAC / Caribbean in late May or early June, so I think we will have to watch that region soon enough.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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