Extreme Drought to Flood in Georgia: Weather Whiplash Strikes Again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:57 PM GMT on May 06, 2013

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The remarkable storm that brought record-breaking May snows and cold to the Midwest last week continues to spin over the Southeast U.S. The storm is unleashing flooding rains, bringing a case of "Weather Whiplash" to Georgia: flooding where extreme drought had existed just a few months ago. The storm formed when a loop in the jet stream of extreme amplitude got cut off from the main flow of the jet over the weekend, forming a "cutoff low" that is now slowly spinning down as it drifts east over the Southeast U.S. On Sunday, the storm dumped 3.4" of rain on Atlanta, Georgia--that city's sixth heaviest May calendar day rain storm since record keeping began in 1878. Remarkably, the rains were also able to bring rivers in Central Georgia above flood stage. This portion of the country was in "exceptional drought"--the worst category of drought--at the beginning of 2013.


Figure 1. The record May snowstorm that hit the Midwest U.S. on May 1 - 3, 2013, got cut off from the jet stream and was seen spinning over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, May 5, in this image from NASA's MODIS instrument. The 3.4" of rain that fell on Atlanta, Georgia on May 5 was that city's sixth heaviest May calendar day rainfall since record keeping began in 1878.

Weather Whiplash
Weather Whiplash--a term originally coined by science writer Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org to describe extreme shifts between cold and hot weather--is also a excellent phrase we can use to describe some of the rapid transitions between extreme drought and floods seen in recent years. I brought up a remarkable example in mid-April, when a 200-mile stretch of the Mississippi River north of St. Louis reached damaging major flood levels less than four months after near-record low water levels restricted barge traffic, forcing the Army Corp to blast out rocks from the river bottom to enable navigation. As the climate warms, the new normal in coming decades is going to be more and more extreme "Weather Whiplash" drought-flood cycles like we have seen in the Midwest and in Georgia this year. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. But you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.


Figure 2. Weather Whiplash in Georgia, 2013: the center of the state was in exceptional drought as the beginning of the year, but heavy rains in February, March, and April busted the drought. Heavy May rains have now brought flooding. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Weather Whiplash in the Southeast U.S. more likely due to an intensification of the Bermuda High
This year's "Weather Whiplash" in Georgia is the second time in the past decade the state has gone from exceptional drought to flood. In September 2007, Atlanta, Georgia was in the midst of a 1-in-100 year drought, and was just weeks away from running out of water. Yet just two years later, the drought had been busted, and a phenomenal 1-in-500 year flood ripped through the city, killing ten and causing $500 million in damage. According to a 2011 study by a Duke University-led team of climate scientists, "Changes to the North Atlantic Subtropical High and Its Role in the Intensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States", the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the southeastern United States has more than doubled in recent decades, due to an intensification of the Bermuda High. The scientists found that the Bermuda High, which is centered several hundred miles to the east of the Southeast U.S., has grown more intense during summer and has expanded westwards over the past 30 years. Since high pressure systems are areas of sinking air that discourage precipitation, this has made abnormally dry summers more common over the Southeast U.S. However, in summers when the Bermuda High happens to shift to the east, so that high pressure is not over the Southeast U.S., the stronger winds blowing clockwise around the Bermuda High bring an increased flow of very moist subtropical air from the south to the Southeast U.S., increasing the incidence of abnormally wet summers. Thus, the intensification of the Bermuda High has made extreme droughts and extreme floods more likely over the Southeast U.S. Using climate models, the scientists determined that human-caused global warming was likely the main cause of the significant intensification in the Bermuda High. Thus "Weather Whiplash" between drought and flood will probably become increasingly common in the coming decades over the Southeast U.S.


Figure 3. Observed June-July-August departure of precipitation from average over the SE United States for a 60-yr period (mm day−1). Horizontal dashed lines represent 1 standard deviation of the summer rainfall. Note that summer precipitation extremes exceeding one standard deviation have more than doubled during the most recent 30-year period compared to the previous 30-year period. Image credit: Li et al., 2011, Journal of Climate.

New climate change blog at The Guardian
In these days of steadily decreasing media coverage of climate change (and all science, in general), its good to see a fresh new source of good science appear in a major newspaper. The Guardian, a prominent UK news source, has a new blog called Climate Consensus – The 97%. The primary authors are Dana Nuccitelli of SkepticalScience and John Abraham, Associate Professor at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. The first post at the new blog is titled “Why is Reuters puzzled by global warming’s acceleration?”

Related Links
Don't miss the summary post on last week's remarkable snow storm by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, The Phenomenal May Snowstorm of May 1-3, 2013

Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest: my April 19, 2013 blog post.

Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed: my April 2012 post describing how 20% - 50% of all droughts in the Southeast U.S. are broken by tropical storms or hurricanes.

Study: Global warming is driving increased frequency of extreme wet or dry summer weather in southeast, so droughts and deluges are likely to get worse: October 2010 post by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Snowlover123:
Not at all ridiculous. The pause now...[has been] captured well from HadCruT4:
You surely know that HadCRUT measures surface temperatures only. You also surely know that, as has been empirically shown (Levitus et al. [2012]), recent prolonged and recurring La Nina episodes have been forcing the vast majority of warming into the oceans. And you also surely know that the amount of heat being stored in the oceans right now is astounding, the energy equivalent of several Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs being detonated every second. In fact, there's so much heat that "...if this heat were somehow instantly transferred to the lower 10 km of the global atmosphere it would result in a volume mean warming of this atmospheric layer by approximately 36C (65F)."

warming

So people really need to stop with the "pause" bit. There's been no pause in warming. Absolutely none whatsoever. The planet is continuing to heat at a rapid rate because of the increasing concentrations of CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere (more than 3.4 million tonnes per hour, every hour of every day of every year). So anytime someone says, "The planet hasn't warmed in X years," I simply toss them unceremoniously into the same bin as those low-information types who believe in a flat Earth or a young Earth.
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Lake Lanier is 0.02' off the 10th place highest water level.



Historical Crests for Chattahoochee River at Lake Lanier

(1) 1,077.15 ft on 04/14/1964
(2) 1,076.20 ft on 04/05/1977
(3) 1,075.99 ft on 04/15/1979
(4) 1,075.75 ft on 04/01/1976
(5) 1,075.19 ft on 03/19/1990
(6) 1,074.57 ft on 02/03/1996
(7) 1,073.91 ft on 05/02/1963
(8) 1,073.79 ft on 05/07/2003
(9) 1,073.58 ft on 08/18/1994
(10) 1,073.58 ft on 09/19/2004



Lake allatoona is a little further off 10th place(.44)




Historical Crests for Etowah River at Lake Allatoona

(1) 861.19 ft on 04/10/1964
(2) 857.65 ft on 03/30/1980
(3) 856.12 ft on 04/18/1979
(4) 853.25 ft on 09/23/2009
(5) 851.39 ft on 05/05/1963
(6) 850.36 ft on 07/15/2005
(7) 848.89 ft on 03/25/1952
(8) 848.41 ft on 06/24/1989
(9) 847.95 ft on 02/06/1981
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How do they know there is no ocean under the Saturn Hurricane? I haven't seen a map of the surface of Saturn. With it's increased gravity and atmospheric depth, when do dense liquid/gasses become an ocean there?
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Hey all

Well, yesterday and today in the high 60's here in North Wales, a few places reporting 73' right now, that's about a heatwave here and indeed feels roasting when I was in the garden earlier LOL If I didn't have to wait for the water company person, I'd be at the beach today!

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Vega lifts off with Success with PROBA V Aboard

For complete Media release Click HERE



N 12 2013: ESAs Vega launcher scores new success with Proba-V

7 May 2013

The second flight of ESAs newest launch vehicle has been completed from Europes Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. Two Earth observation satellites, ESAs Proba-V and Vietnams VNREDSat1A, were released into different orbits, demonstrating the rockets versatility. Estonias first satellite, the ESTCube1 technology demonstrator, was also released into orbit.

Vega lifted off at 02:06 GMT on 7 May (23:06 local time 6 May; 04:06 CEST 7 May) on a complex mission requiring five upper-stage boosts and lasting about twice as long as its first launch, in February 2012.

The three solid-propellant stages performed flawlessly and, after two burns of the liquid-propellant upper stage, ProbaV was released into a circular orbit at an altitude of 820 km, over the western coast of Australia, some 55 minutes into flight.

The satellite is now being controlled by ESAs centre in Redu, Belgium, where it is undergoing a health check and testing before the operational phase starts to monitor the vegetation coverage on Planet Earth.

After releasing Proba-V, the upper stage performed a third burn and the top half of the egg-shaped Vega Secondary Payload Adapter was ejected. After a fourth burn to circularise the orbit at an altitude of 704 km, VNREDSat-1A was released 1 hour 57 minutes into flight. ESTCube1 was ejected from its dispenser three minutes later.


For Launch Replay Click HERE
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Good Morning folks and good evening Aussie. Pleasant cool morning in Fort Myers. Temp at 59°

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Quoting Torito:


According to that chart, global warming has slowed in the past 2 years..


Two years is far, far too short to establish a long-term trend. How can you do that on only two or three annual data points? Even ENSO cycles can have longer periods than that.

Good morning, everyone. It's a sunny day in Southern Ontario.
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Everyone have a great Tuesday! Aussie, have a great Wednesday!
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Going to a meeting... L8rs, and im still watching those invests out there :D
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Snowlover123:


Not at all ridiculous. The pause now, and the rapid warming period in the 1990s are both captured well from HadCruT4:



According to that chart, global warming has slowed in the past 2 years..
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
I don't know if this has already been said but the Mayon Volcano in the Philippines erupted, killing 5.


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Quoting BobChecks:


Ridiculous.




Decade Average Temp 75% Sized photo DecadeAverageTemp75Size.jpg">



Not at all ridiculous. The pause now, and the rapid warming period in the 1990s are both captured well from HadCruT4:

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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A cool 59 degrees with a high later of 82.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Steak and eggs, toast, blueberry muffins, yogurt and orange juice. Enjoy.
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Another day with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for PR and adjacent islands as a trough lingers nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST TUE MAY 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC THE REST OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE MINIMAL. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SURROUND THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES. FOR
TODAY...A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...AS BEST MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO AND NEAR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.

SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THETAE VALUES AT
700MB RUNNING AROUND 335-340K. THEREFORE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE AREA. A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
07/15Z. LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL RETROGRESS TODAY RESULTING IN
SHRA/TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
ALL TAF SITES ARE AT RISK EXCEPT ST. KITTS WHERE WEATHER WILL BE
IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 77 / 40 20 20 20
STT 85 76 87 77 / 50 10 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13992
Morning Largo... I almost need a jacket this a.m. ... quite unseasonable...
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Just took a look outside... it's calm and drafty. My extremely informal outdoor thermometer has 62 degrees, and the airport is reporting 68, which is rare for the end of the first week in May.
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Good Morning Folks,nice cool morning here..love it.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36830
Quoting BobChecks:


The regulations I've heard about prevent one from installing panels on a roof facing the street. What you do out of sight of the street is your business.

If you've got some backyard space then there are options such as on top of a pergola or tool shed. Or attached to a back fence.

East and west facing roofs will give you about 80% as much power per panel as south-facing roofs. If you can't use a south-facing roof you still have the option of installing a few extra panels to get what you need.

And then there are community solar projects in which you can purchase a partial ownership. One buys enough panels to cover their personal needs and the math works the same way.

Solar and Florida are made for each other.
Hi in My subdivision every third house has the solar panels on the roof for heating hot water etc..smart idea i think.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36830
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmmmm...what have we here?

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
GFS is similar before whisking it off to the NE and spawning another behind it. Obviously far out but interesting. :)

Hm.... early subtropical? It would be right on time, given recent years, and could easily spin up from one of these cutoff lows we've been seeing...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Get well soon Baha!!
:)
Thanks, Max... a little rest can work wonders... lol

Morning all... the coffee's on, and there's a choice between egg-white omelet with salsa on wheat toast and beignets for those with a sweet tooth...

Enjoy your day!



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GFS is similar before whisking it off to the NE and spawning another behind it. Obviously far out but interesting. :)

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Hmmmmm...what have we here?

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Quoting txjac:


I just need to win the lottery now to make is all happen ...I'll have to makes my dream of solar something that I will be working towards for my future ...a piece at a time


Work on the math. You may find the payments on a loan for a solar system may be mostly paid for by utility bill savings. Then once the loan is paid off you get to keep a bunch of money in your pocket.

Every system I've seen priced out turns out to a pretty danged good rate of return on investment. And low risk.

Then there's always the lease route. Not as good a deal in the long run, but better than having no solar at all.
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Quoting Skyepony:
North pole yesterday..


Um, what am I looking at exactly? That image just baffled me for some reason.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very strange temperature pattern for the first week of May.



Indeed, It was 87F in Seattle today. It's not very often Seattle has the same temperature as Pheonix...
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442. Skyepony (Mod)
North pole yesterday..
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441. Skyepony (Mod)
Florida law forbids ordinances, deed restrictions, covenants, or similar binding agreements from prohibiting solar equipment use. Under this law, a homeowner may not be denied by "any entity granted the power or right in any deed restriction, covenant or similar binding agreement to approve, forbid, control, or direct alteration of property..." permission to install a solar collector, clothesline, or other energy device using renewable resources.

While a homeowner cannot be prevented from installing a solar energy system, certain restrictions may be imposed without violating the law. However, those restrictions must be reasonable, not arbitrary, and uniformly imposed on homeowners in a subdivision. The restrictions cannot act to impair the performance of a solar system or it may be seen as "effectively" prohibiting solar.


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439. txjac
Quoting BobChecks:


Pictures...


I just need to win the lottery now to make is all happen ...I'll have to makes my dream of solar something that I will be working towards for my future ...a piece at a time
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Quoting txjac:


A problem ...so many "subdivision" rules and regulations dont allow for solar ...it takes away from the integrity of the area ,,,errr ...ugh! ... too many rules and regulations ....

I think that I want to make a small solar farm somehow in my back yard


Pictures...
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EXPERIMENTAL WORLD GLOBAL 2M TEMP 00Z GFS
HR 192
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Grothar:


I don't believe they are allowed in my area. However, if I could get our electric bill down below $500 per month, it would be manageable.


The regulations I've heard about prevent one from installing panels on a roof facing the street. What you do out of sight of the street is your business.

If you've got some backyard space then there are options such as on top of a pergola or tool shed. Or attached to a back fence.

East and west facing roofs will give you about 80% as much power per panel as south-facing roofs. If you can't use a south-facing roof you still have the option of installing a few extra panels to get what you need.

And then there are community solar projects in which you can purchase a partial ownership. One buys enough panels to cover their personal needs and the math works the same way.

Solar and Florida are made for each other.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EXPERIMENTAL WORLD GLOBAL 2M TEMP 00Z GFS
HR 144 HR 174


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Civicane49:


Thanks for posting this article. Hawaii has been pretty lucky to not get hit much by hurricanes in the past. But, I am well aware that the change in climate will allow conditions in the Pacific to be more favorable for more hurricanes to hit Hawaii in the future. One of the things I am concerned for Hawaii is that there is a shortage of emergency shelters.


Oh you're welcome. Hopefully your state will work on their shelter situation. Here we evacuate - A LOT! But I know that's not an option for islands.
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433. txjac
Quoting BobChecks:


Solar panels, gentlemen.

Become the seller rather than the buyer. Lock in some of that good low, low priced electricity that you can make from the sunshine that hits your roof almost every day in sunny Florida.

In a few years your panels will have paid for themselves and then you will be able to enjoy almost free electricity as grid prices rise for others.


A problem ...so many "subdivision" rules and regulations dont allow for solar ...it takes away from the integrity of the area ,,,errr ...ugh! ... too many rules and regulations ....

I think that I want to make a small solar farm somehow in my back yard
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Quoting BobChecks:


Solar panels, gentlemen.

Become the seller rather than the buyer. Lock in some of that good low, low priced electricity that you can make from the sunshine that hits your roof almost every day in sunny Florida.

In a few years your panels will have paid for themselves and then you will be able to enjoy almost free electricity as grid prices rise for others.


I don't believe they are allowed in my area. However, if I could get our electric bill down below $500 per month, it would be manageable.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Stormier Paradise: More Hurricanes Predicted for Hawaii

Scientists have suggested climate change may mean fewer tropical cyclones in coming years, but a closer look at how global warming affects regional weather patterns reveals Hawaiians should expect more hurricane-force gales.

Tropical cyclones include hurricanes and typhoons, storms that form in the world's tropical latitudes and spin ferociously around a center called an eye. Only eight named tropical cyclones hit Hawaii between 1979 and 2010, said scientists at the University of Hawaii's International Pacific Research Center. But the researchers' new model predicts a two-to-three-fold increase in such storms between 2075 and 2099. The study is detailed in the May 5 issue of the journal Nature Climate Change.

In the Pacific Ocean, tropical cyclones that could threaten Hawaii typically arise off the west coast of Mexico from June through November. But lack of moisture over the Pacific and strong westerly winds usually stop the storms from reaching the islands.

But the new model predicts that these westerly winds %u2014 called a subtropical jet and similar to the polar jet stream %u2014 will shift northward in the next 60 years, removing the roadblock. The projections also suggest the eastern Pacific Ocean will warm, giving storms more fuel in the form of rising moisture.


Thanks for posting this article. Hawaii has been pretty lucky to not get hit much by hurricanes in the past. But, I am well aware that the change in climate will allow conditions in the Pacific to be more favorable for more hurricanes to hit Hawaii in the future. One of the things I am concerned for Hawaii is that there is a shortage of emergency shelters.
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POSS LATE SEASON FROST
LOWER LAKES AND INTERIOR NE REGIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The weather has changed for sure Gro.
We have to change with the times, and in calculating the present value of what I'm going to have to pay Florida Power & Light, it's clear to me that I need more bitcoins.


Solar panels, gentlemen.

Become the seller rather than the buyer. Lock in some of that good low, low priced electricity that you can make from the sunshine that hits your roof almost every day in sunny Florida.

In a few years your panels will have paid for themselves and then you will be able to enjoy almost free electricity as grid prices rise for others.
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I love when the MJO is in this mode,is rotating and is reaching all over the globe :)




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Quoting RitaEvac:


And it gets worse: Remember when cattle ranching was the biggest threat to the Amazon rainforest? Now add the relentless quest for oil. The Ecuadorian government is currently planning to sell an enormous area of pristine rainforest to oil companies.

Amazon Rainforest Up for Auction



That's disgusting...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
WED HIGH TEMPS FORECAST 00Z GFS

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
tusedays high temp forecast 00z GFS

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The weather has changed for sure Gro.
We have to change with the times, and in calculating the present value of what I'm going to have to pay Florida Power & Light, it's clear to me that I need more bitcoins.


I hear ya.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
Quoting Grothar:


The weather has changed since we were youngins, eh, Cosmic?
The weather has changed for sure Gro.
We have to change with the times, and in calculating the present value of what I'm going to have to pay Florida Power & Light, it's clear to me that I need more bitcoins.
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Stormier Paradise: More Hurricanes Predicted for Hawaii

Scientists have suggested climate change may mean fewer tropical cyclones in coming years, but a closer look at how global warming affects regional weather patterns reveals Hawaiians should expect more hurricane-force gales.

Tropical cyclones include hurricanes and typhoons, storms that form in the world's tropical latitudes and spin ferociously around a center called an eye. Only eight named tropical cyclones hit Hawaii between 1979 and 2010, said scientists at the University of Hawaii's International Pacific Research Center. But the researchers' new model predicts a two-to-three-fold increase in such storms between 2075 and 2099. The study is detailed in the May 5 issue of the journal Nature Climate Change.

In the Pacific Ocean, tropical cyclones that could threaten Hawaii typically arise off the west coast of Mexico from June through November. But lack of moisture over the Pacific and strong westerly winds usually stop the storms from reaching the islands.

But the new model predicts that these westerly winds — called a subtropical jet and similar to the polar jet stream — will shift northward in the next 60 years, removing the roadblock. The projections also suggest the eastern Pacific Ocean will warm, giving storms more fuel in the form of rising moisture.
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Very strange temperature pattern for the first week of May.

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
It does throw retirement planning right out the cave door, doesn't it?


The weather has changed since we were youngins, eh, Cosmic?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
Quoting Grothar:


I have always hated these 50,000 year heat waves myself.
It does throw retirement planning right out the cave door, doesn't it?
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Quoting docrod:


hit sky and telescope dot com for additional info and links. chao


Thanks for link... Has this video....

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.