Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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1269. pcola57
12:36 PM GMT on May 07, 2013
Good Morning Andre..
Dr. Masters has a new blog..


Click HERE
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
1268. Andrebrooks
12:30 PM GMT on May 07, 2013
It has been unusally cool in the south the beginning of this week and last weekend.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
1267. danconine
1:02 PM GMT on May 04, 2013
Quoting indianrivguy:


welp.. you know how it is... there is no failsafe :)

"Did you just call me BUB!?"

Sorry, quoted the wrong one. "It's now officially a blob"
Member Since: January 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1266. danconine
1:01 PM GMT on May 04, 2013
Quoting StormHype:
Global warming gone wrong. Live mobile May 1st winter storm video from MN:
Live mobile wx video

Technically, I would say it is "Global Warming Gone Right", because it represents heat redistribution effects. Convection knows what it's doing: we don't.
Member Since: January 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1265. franklincounty
4:34 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
http://www.whitecityweather.com/wx10.html

glad its not july or sept. noticable spin just south of me here
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
1264. Chicklit
2:25 AM GMT on May 02, 2013
nary a drop in ecfl this afternoon or tonight...goodnight.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
1263. StormHype
12:06 AM GMT on May 02, 2013
Global warming gone wrong. Live mobile May 1st winter storm video from MN:
Live mobile wx video
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
1262. Grothar
2:48 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1261. hydrus
2:48 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Here is Zane getting whacked with shear.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
1260. hydrus
2:45 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
The gulf blob has an invest number..78L..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
1259. aspectre
2:44 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
AussieStorm: TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles.
1229 Tazmanian: You're late, they named it over the weekend.

He was telling another WUber who reported that a big snow was forecast for her/his area that it had already been named.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1258. indianrivguy
2:44 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting nofailsafe:
Welp. The earth exploded.



welp.. you know how it is... there is no failsafe :)
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2638
1257. LargoFl
2:43 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting Grothar:
OK. It's a blob.

LOL Gro..they have been waiting for that.,
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42039
1256. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:42 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1255. LargoFl
2:42 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Light rain to the south of me already.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42039
1254. FunnelVortex
2:42 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
All around Florida, people are cheering for the approaching MCV.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
1253. Grothar
2:42 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
OK. It's a blob.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1252. weathermanwannabe
2:41 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
FWTIW, that low in the Gulf is deepening at bit; we are getting counter-clockwise rotation on the lower cloud decks at the moment in the FL Big Bend. Not used to seeing the clouds rotate in from the East up here unless we have a big low or storm in the Gulf.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9400
1251. LargoFl
2:40 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ876-011515-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0029.130501T1417Z-130501T1515Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 1012 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF DON PEDRO ISLAND TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SANIBEL...MOVING EAST AT 35 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PASSED.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42039
1250. ndscott50
2:39 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Good Snow in Colorado. Only a two inches have stuck east of Longmont this morning but it is coming down hard enough to make my TV go out.

The mountains east of the divide got hit hard overnight. The Joe Wright snotel west of Ft. Collins at 10,120 feet showed a bunch of snow.
Link
Between 6pm and 2am it indicated 19 inches of snow (1.3 inches liquid)
Member Since: March 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1249. LargoFl
2:38 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:

Offshore Waters Forecast (Gulf of Mexico)


000
FZNT24 KNHC 011431
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ001-012145-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...REACHING GALE FORCE FRI MORNING OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE
AND WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI AND SHIFT E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

$$
yes we get a one-two punch of rain this week with these low pressure systems..great rainfall
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42039
1248. LargoFl
2:36 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Light rain here now with some boomers out in the gulf.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42039
1247. aspectre
2:35 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
1218 Tropicsweatherpr: ATCF is testing the GOM area

Good to know they haven't changed the site address like they did last year.
Annoying to read that an Invest has been declared, but being unable to find the ATCF history on it.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1246. JTDailyUpdate
2:35 PM GMT on May 01, 2013

Offshore Waters Forecast (Gulf of Mexico)


000
FZNT24 KNHC 011431
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ001-012145-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...REACHING GALE FORCE FRI MORNING OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE
AND WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI AND SHIFT E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

$$
Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
1244. ProgressivePulse
2:33 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
The line should weaken a bit as it hits land then get refreshed in a big way when it gets to the east coast. The complex should arrive over here right about peak heating and sea breeze time.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1243. muddertracker
2:33 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
come on baby..thats it..keep coming..gimme that rain.....


Uh...wow. Even the best foreplay is still, well, foreplay. A month or so away from any real action.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1242. weathermanwannabe
2:32 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
Hope not...Dont want none i say..:)
\

Yup.....The trajectory for this non-entity at the moment reminds me of Wilma.....The warm waters of the lower Everglades did not slow her down one bit before she hit the East Coast of Florida. At least we have good local doppler coverage to keep an eye on things.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9400
1241. nrtiwlnvragn
2:30 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
ATCF is testing the GOM area


75kt Test? Not very realistic. Now the Test in the East Pacific (20 kt) is more realistic.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
1240. LargoFl
2:30 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
come on baby..thats it..keep coming..gimme that rain.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42039
1239. Grothar
2:29 PM GMT on May 01, 2013


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1238. ProgressivePulse
2:27 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
That's quite a line of storms there.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1237. hydrus
2:25 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting muddertracker:


Terracane?
Hope not...Dont want none i say..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
1236. AussieStorm
2:25 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting AussieStorm:


TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles




your late they named it overe the weekend

Obviously not everyone knew about it.

Remember, when they first came out and said they would be naming Winter Storms. They said they expected to only name less than 10. Winter Storm Achilles is now Winter Storm 27.

Btw Taz, Some people do have a life outside of this blog.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
1235. nofailsafe
2:23 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Welp. The earth exploded.

Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
1234. stormchaser19
2:23 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is just one month away. Do you have a personal hurricane plan ready? This is the time to get one, before there is a hurricane on your doorstep.


Link

Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
1233. hydrus
2:23 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
This is some of the strangest news I have seen in a very long time, and it seems legit....
Image Album:
Image Gallery: Odd Alien-Looking Skeleton Poses Medical Mystery
Jeanna Bryner, LiveScience Managing Editor
Date: 30 April 2013 Time: 11:21 AM ET
...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
1231. VR46L
2:21 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Both you two are on fire today!!



Thank you!!


Its a good excuse to air out the links and get re- acquainted with Imagery that has hardly been looked at for Months
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
1230. muddertracker
2:17 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1229. Tazmanian
2:17 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:


TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles




your late they named it overe the weekend
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
1228. muddertracker
2:16 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting hydrus:


Terracane?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1226. hydrus
2:16 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
1225. hydrus
2:14 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
The forecast upper low looks rather familiar.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
1224. AussieStorm
2:14 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Not really much left of TC Zane



Can't see any circulation on microwave now.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
1222. RitaEvac
2:11 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Ria Persad (Carlo)
President of StatWeather


Dear Friends,

I have put together a special study for you that I thought you would find informative.

Best wishes,
Ria

Who or What are Anti-Forecasts?

Anti-Forecasts are weather predictions that are more wrong than right. They're forecasts that, if you follow them, will bring you bad trades, poor crops, untold amounts of wasted energy dollars, cheat you out of a raise and even send you on the fast track to the unemployment line.

How is data collected? I sit at my laptop every day, every week, every month, and every year, and I google search. When I find those long-range (monthly and seasonal) forecasts, press releases, and maps, I save them and then I skill-test the forecasts at the end of the month or season. There are many forecasts which are not on the web, whose results are not posted here. It's a very simple system: If you're on the correct side of climate normals (Above, Normal, Below), you get it right. If not, you get it wrong. If the regional boundaries on your temperature forecast map aren't as neat as the NOAA climate regions, I give you benefit of the doubt and will score you in your favor. I do this on my own time, and I take full personal responsibility for the contents of this study. Any errors herein are all mine.

Why do I do this? I believe that people in different industries need to know if certain forecasts are providing more harm than help....or, if a simple change of strategy---inverting the forecast---is going to provide the biggest returns as a hedging strategy!

These Anti-Forecasts represent 18 months of skill, including Winter 2011-2012, Summer 2012, Winter 2012-2013, March 2013, and April 2013.
So who have I found to be the Anti-Forecasts?

#1 (Most Inaccurate) Anti-Forecast: Farmer's Almanac; Accuracy score: 26%
#2 Anti-Forecast: NOAA; Accuracy score: 28%
#3 Anti-Forecast: Accuweather; Accuracy score: 31%
#4 Anti-Forecast: MDA EarthSat; Accuracy score: 32%
#4 Anti-Forecast (tied): WSI; Accuracy score: 32%


All of these forecasters were on average worse than going with Climate Normals over the last 18 months.
The accuracy score of Climate Normals: 35%.
In other words, if you went with any of the 5 "Anti-Forecasts", and then INVERTED their forecasts, you would have made money.

StatWeather's best hedging recommendation is to INVERT any of the above forecasts or go with a straight StatWeather forecast (accuracy score: 74%).

To view more accuracy reports, go to www.statweather.com
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
1221. VR46L
2:10 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Quoting biff4ugo:
VR46, thanks for that animation #1148.
You can really see one of the cloud seeds due west of Tampa and south of Apalachicola.
They really kick up impressive amounts of condensation.


Thank you very much ! Yeah I like RGB as a view it kind of tells more of a story than a normal Vis does!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
1220. AussieStorm
2:09 PM GMT on May 01, 2013

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