Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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Quoting Levi32:


Wow it really was hot there today apparently. Sorry about your chickens.

I'll take the lost its only 20% some people lost 50% but that map shows my temps were 8 degrees above normal if i read correct
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Quoting Grothar:


No name yet. I just want to check my vertical instability and MJO functions first, just to be sure. Although 1900 is right. It looks like a lot of wet weather heading somebody's way.


Well, it is always good to check one's vertical instability before proceeding!
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Quoting belizeit:
It happens every year here its just having the chickens big at the wrong time i think temps here are belowe normal but its still a big loss


Wow it really was hot there today apparently. Sorry about your chickens.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37025
The highest Heat Index ever recorded was 172 F with global warming adding more moisture to the atmosphere that record could soon be broken
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Tampa area is getting pounded again tonight..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37025
Quoting belizeit:
i wander what is the highest heat index ever recorded


I don't know, but a heat index of 136 is really bad, I've seen it get into the low 120's here before but that's it.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7301
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
814 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

FLC057-010115-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0009.130501T0014Z-130501T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-
814 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 814 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2794 8242 2787 8240 2786 8241 2789 8241
2789 8244 2790 8246 2792 8249 2794 8249

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37025
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Has Grothar named it? I don't think he should because it has no chance of turning into anything tropical.


No name yet. I just want to check my vertical instability and MJO functions first, just to be sure. Although 1900 is right. It looks like a lot of wet weather heading somebody's way.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


A heat index of 136? That is disgusting, I don't want to experience that...
i wander what is the highest heat index ever recorded
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Quoting DDR:

Sorry to hear/see your lost my friend,we had temperatures 3 to 4 degrees celcius above average a little more than one week ago her in Trinidad.
It happens every year here its just having the chickens big at the wrong time i think temps here are belowe normal but its still a big loss
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858. DDR
Quoting belizeit:
My chickens could not take the the high Heat Index of 136 degrees i lost 20 % of them today

Sorry to hear/see your lost my friend,we had temperatures 3 to 4 degrees celcius above average a little more than one week ago here in Trinidad before the rains came.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Yeah, shear won't allow it to organize into anything tropical for sure, but all of that divergence will continue to kick up a bunch of convection.



Upper divergence rules!


The upper divergence is due to a shortwave, it will lead to additional beneficial rains for Florida, probably more severe weather too.

I agree that if it weren't for shear, it would have a shot at developing.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7301
Quoting indianrivguy:


stop it, make it leave, this is a bad time for blobage.


Has Grothar named it? I don't think he should because it has no chance of turning into anything tropical.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
Quoting Grothar:


I posted the convergence and divergence maps earlier. Other than a lot of wind shear on both sides, it looks pretty good to me, too.

Yeah, shear won't allow it to organize into anything tropical for sure, but all of that divergence will continue to kick up a bunch of convection.



Upper divergence rules!
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Quoting zoomiami:


I believe this, the rain has been crazy today. But everything looks beautiful green!


Zoo! Very good to see you dear, I hope all is well on Snapper Creek!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2521
Quoting Grothar:




stop it, make it leave, this is a bad time for blobage.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2521
There have been a number of severe warnings around the Orlando area.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7301
Quoting zoomiami:


I believe this, the rain has been crazy today. But everything looks beautiful green!


ZOO!!!!

Haven't seen your name pop up in a while!
Just had to pop in here and say HI!

Missed you!

Yeah...crazy rainy this week.
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Quoting belizeit:
My chickens could not take the the high Heat Index of 136 degrees i lost 20 % of them today


A heat index of 136? That is disgusting, I don't want to experience that...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7301
Quoting Slamguitar:


Looks like a beast.


Thank you.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

That thing is sitting in two very favorable jet regions; the left exit region of the SW jet streak, and the right entrance region of the NE jet streak. That right entrance region looks particularly divergent.



I posted the convergence and divergence maps earlier. Other than a lot of wind shear on both sides, it looks pretty good to me, too.
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Quoting Grothar:



That thing is sitting in two very favorable jet regions; the left exit region of the SW jet streak, and the right entrance region of the NE jet streak. That right entrance region looks particularly divergent.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


by may 24th ye be warming may see some 50's possible 60's by then warm for 3 months till winter again
we may get our first above 70 degree day tomorrow here in the lower lakes south central ontario region


Out and about today, was thinking about what a late spring it is this year. Being in the UK for 13 years, haven't seen it this late. May 1st now....And the trees are 'just' starting to leave, the daffodil's are all finally in bloom (after some had started early end of Jan at the early part of winter being mild, but then stalled and froze up and nothing finished til last few weeks). We've been hitting round 50'. Felt like a beach day in the sun today after the months of freezing temps (and not even close to you there!).

Been too busy to really enjoy the nice days we've had though! Did clear up at right time for full moon/lunar eclipse last week and set up camera with telescope mounted...but was too much cloud on the horizon, missed it!
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Quoting Grothar:


Grothar has declared a blobb watch
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Keep your eye on this one:





Looks like a beast.
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Keep your eye on this one:



Quoting Slamguitar:
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Here is the latest Global Hazard update

Let's see how the MJO behaves in the next couple of weeks.
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My chickens could not take the the high Heat Index of 136 degrees i lost 20 % of them today
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Achilles? Are they starting off on next years list now they've exhausted the old one?

Yeah, it appears that TWC is planning on keeping the naming lists fluid like they are in the WPac.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 7:00 PM EDT
Tuesday 30 April 2013
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:60.1°F
Dewpoint:53.4°F
Humidity:79%
Wind:SE 10 mph
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Achilles? Are they starting off on next years list now they've exhausted the old one?



i gust
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have winter storm ACHILLES


Achilles? Are they starting off on next years list now they've exhausted the old one?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23611
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Quoting MrMixon:


You may be right, but I really liked the idea of someone painstakingly hollowing out each little lentil and stuffing a tiny morsel of something else inside...

Snow has started falling on the higher peaks of Rocky Mountain National Park and should start spreading down to lower elevations imminently:




I was imagining stuffing a herring ball!



Sometimes Islands, now known as Isles of Sometimes Lake Travis. 40+ft low and still no rain.
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we now have winter storm ACHILLES
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From this afternoon's Miami NWS Disco...

THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, AN OFFSET TO THIS WAS THAT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE HAVE ALSO WARMED SO THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION THAN ON
MONDAY. PWAT IS ALSO VERY HEIGHT FOR LATE APRIL AND THIS THE
REASON FOR THE EXTREME RAIN. OUR RADAR HAS ESTIMATED NEAR 10 INCH
TOTAL IN CORAL GABLES AREA JUST WEST OF MIRACLE MILE.


I believe this, the rain has been crazy today. But everything looks beautiful green!
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Quoting Levi32:


You want to know what my "spring" weather has been like? Well I'll tell you. It's been kind of like this - for the last 8 weeks:



by may 24th ye be warming may see some 50's possible 60's by then warm for 3 months till winter again
we may get our first above 70 degree day tomorrow here in the lower lakes south central ontario region
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829. Ighuc
Who is ready for some May snow!!

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS HEAVY BAND OF SNOW. CONTRARY TO POPULAR
BELIEF...THESE RATES WILL OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GROUND WILL NOT
FREEZE...SO THE SNOW WILL CONTINUALLY BE MELTING FROM BELOW.
THIS...TOGETHER WITH COMPACTION WILL PRODUCE SNOW TOTALS MUCH LESS
THAN A SIMPLE ADDITION OF THE HOURLY RATES WOULD INDICATE. WITH
THAT SAID...ONE MUST ACKNOWLEDGE THE COBB OUTPUT FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
FAIRMONT...TO MINNEAPOLIS...AND RICE LAKE WI. THE SREF 30.09
PLACES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL...WITH
PLUMES SHOWING MEAN TOTALS OF 6-9 INCHES.
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Four days change

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Quoting Levi32:


You want to know what my "spring" weather has been like? Well I'll tell you. It's been kind of like this - for the last 8 weeks:



You poor one!
And this is snowy Mt. Redoubt right now (near Anchorage). At least some hope for sunshine to come ...

Link

I'm out. Good night.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I sure would like to know the OSHA safety record for this job.."421 days free of Alligator Injuries" and then this guy almost goes and ruins the streak..


I don't think this was those Deputy's first rodeo...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2521
As promised would happen if the previous naming list was exhausted..

Winter Storm Achilles has been named by The Weather Channel.
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Heeding Sandy’s Lessons, Before the Next Big Storm
Published: April 30th, 2013 , Last Updated: April 30th, 2013 on Climate Central

------------------------------------------------- -


Brocken Mountain in Germany (source Wiki)

Good night from Germany. We've got a holiday on Mai,1 in Germany as it's the International worker's day. The night before (= tonight) is the Walpurgis Night, when weird things happen and all the witches will ride on their broom to "Blocksberg" = Brocken Mountain, which is the highest mountain (3,743 ft) in northern Germany and very often hit by severe weather.

"The Brocken has always played a role in legends and has been connected with witches and devils; Johann Wolfgang von Goethe took up the legends in his play Faust. The Brocken spectre is a common phenomenon on this misty mountain, where a climber's shadow cast upon fog creates eerie optical effects." (Source Wiki)

So I have to leave now, my broom is waiting ...


"The little witch". Famous children's book in Germany from 1957.


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Quoting Levi32:


You want to know what my "spring" weather has been like? Well I'll tell you. It's been kind of like this - for the last 8 weeks:

Thats below normal , I don't know if ours is above nornal but hummity is a killer.
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Quoting redwagon:


After due meditation, I've been illuminated he meant *stewed* lentils and *stuffed* herring balls. His servants printed the menu wording backwards.

Man, Austin needs rain.


You may be right, but I really liked the idea of someone painstakingly hollowing out each little lentil and stuffing a tiny morsel of something else inside...

Snow has started falling on the higher peaks of Rocky Mountain National Park and should start spreading down to lower elevations imminently:


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Quoting belizeit:
Levi hows the weather in Alaska ? I need to cool of!!!!!


You want to know what my "spring" weather has been like? Well I'll tell you. It's been kind of like this - for the last 8 weeks:

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...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N70W PRODUCING SE
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N92W TO 25N91W MOVING E.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-31N BETWEEN 88W-93W.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N E OF 82W. ALSO OF
NOTE...SMOKE IS REPORTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS
NEAR 30N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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