Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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This is to all you nay sayers about our first named system of the year.



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I nave also notice the SAL this year is very weak,which will limit the effect of dry air disrupting the development of these waves.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
3" to 6" of rain fell yesterday just west of Orlando with the seabreeze collision. Also had a severe storm come thru Downtown Orlando and blew out some of the windows in the high rise buildings. The Trade Winds hotel lost several windows yesterday.



You marked that boundary collision correctly, props :)
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1016. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, maybe get a lot of it, too.
will be interesting to see how it plays out.
so far Miami is doing a better job with it than Oklahoma is...lol But that makes sense, doesn't it.
yeah Miami is doing a great job alright
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Quoting Hernando44:
Largo: It looks like we will stay pretty much high and dry today, while south of Tampa Bay will once again get
hit with alot of rain.


You are wrong there. Tampa is in store for atleast 5" of rain the next few days.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Kori, you would agree that being gay doesnt matter right? Doesn't change anything about a person. Yet when you turned on the tv all you heard about Collins. If it doesnt matter then having hour specials would have the opposite affect have intended right? Singling him out instead of just him being another basketball player.



That is what is so stupid about the whole thing, the man says hes gay, who cares? I'm pretty darn sure he didn't come out with that because he wants attention, rather hes just sick of keeping it a secret. People need to get over themselves and move on...
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Largo: It looks like we will stay pretty much high and dry today, while south of Tampa Bay will once again get
hit with alot of rain.
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morning
it looks like the 1st tropical wave, is about to exit the African coast ,the next 24 hrs.
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Very heavy rain getting drawn NE into the Tampa Bay area in a couple of hours.

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1010. LargoFl
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3" to 6" of rain fell yesterday just west of Orlando with the seabreeze collision. Also had a severe storm come thru Downtown Orlando and blew out some of the windows in the high rise buildings. The Trade Winds hotel lost several windows yesterday.

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Quoting LargoFl:
..you know I am going to be Very watchful today, if you follow the radar that huge blob is not moving due east, its growing and moving ENE..we in the tampa bay area just might get a little of this when it comes ashore..i'd like to see the radar around lunchtime,my guess is we do get some of it today.

yeah, maybe get a lot of it, too.
will be interesting to see how it plays out.
so far Miami is doing a better job with it than Oklahoma is...lol But that makes sense, doesn't it.
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1007. LargoFl
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SPC must work 8 to 5 Central Time.



Link SPC Outlook

maybe they're sequestered...
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I got to say for the time of year it is ,1 month later and we would  have at least an invest if not a depression in the gulf ,It looks like some outflow in the northwest side of the blob and the thing has held together for over 24 hours
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1004. LargoFl
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1003. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:
they must be factoring in the tampa shield Largo.
we're going to have some day time heating.
Link wundermap
..you know I am going to be Very watchful today, if you follow the radar that huge blob is not moving due east, its growing and moving ENE..we in the tampa bay area just might get a little of this when it comes ashore..i'd like to see the radar around lunchtime,my guess is we do get some of it today.
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Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday. Aussie, have a great Thursday!
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Maybe at least a candidate for being Invest briefly?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14007
they must be factoring in the tampa shield Largo.
we're going to have some day time heating.
Link wundermap
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Lee County 100 yr Flood Zones..
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7-day for Tampa bay area..i would have made it 90% today huh..
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good one, aussie!
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This GOM blob looks better than TC Zane





TC Zane now Cat 1 on BOM Scale.


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wow...........
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE AREA WITH SEA BREEZES, MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE
NORMAL, AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND EAST COAST
AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FLOODING: THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY IS
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF STREET FLOODING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER ENTERING
CARS OR MAY BE EVEN STRUCTURES IN AREAS HARDEST HIT AND WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.

WIND: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH
WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HAIL: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SMALL HAIL (DIME SIZE OR
LESS) WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TORNADOES: AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WATERSPOUTS: AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH TO MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Just looked at the gulf, the heavy moisture clouds are being drawn out to that blob in the gulf..gee wherever it comes ashore there is going to be flooding rains wow.

that's sure what it looks like now.
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Just looked at the gulf, the heavy moisture clouds are being drawn out to that blob in the gulf..gee wherever it comes ashore there is going to be flooding rains wow.
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south florida,if you flood easily, prepare now..........
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holy poop
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...WET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...
...SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...


THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
Good Morning...

I'm expecting a meso-low to evolve a bit more within that convective complex and lift NE in the SE GOM.
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Quoting Doppler22:
I've been out for a day or two... so I need to know one thing, Grothar, did you name the thing in the Gulf a Blob yet?

He might be looking for his snorkle and fins.

Link HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA (scroll down)

...FLOODING: THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY IS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STREET FLOODING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER ENTERING CARS OR MAY BE EVEN STRUCTURES IN AREAS HARDEST HIT AND WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
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I've been out for a day or two... so I need to know one thing, Grothar, did you name the thing in the Gulf a Blob yet?
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Link WV Loop



water blob in the gulf

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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 66 degrees this morning with a high later of around 81. Chance of rain 50%. Yesterday the rain was a few drops here and there only. My garden would love a good drizzle to give it a good soaking. But we do get to take the kids out of recess.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Pancakes with syrup or fresh fruit, bacon and sausage, eggs and toast, yogurt and fresh squeezed orange juice. Enjoy
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

A very rainy pattern will unfold starting today and lasting thru early next week for the Eastern Caribbean islands. Stay tuned for more information as time goes by.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST WED MAY 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS LARGELY
UNINTERRUPTED THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
STRONGLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE JET STREAM
ARCHES TO THE NORTH. FLEETING AREAS OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 6 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE AREA.
RIDGING REPLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AFTER TUESDAY. MID
LEVELS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY AND INCREASES AREA-WIDE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE GFS IS BEST ON TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AND BRING UP MUCH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW DOES NOT RETURN
TO NORMAL UNTIL VERY LATE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL ENHANCE TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING
INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF
PUERTO RICO. NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ALTHOUGH SAINT CROIX DID PRODUCE A STREAMER WITH A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS MORE THAN 100 MILES LONG. SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
PUERTO RICO EXCEEDED ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT WITH QUITE THE
SAME INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE BECOME MOSTLY EASTERLY
WHILE WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST SO THE EXACT
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. SPECIFICALLY THIS COULD MEAN HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER SAN JUAN AND MORE ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO THE
EVENING AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES AND BETTER DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND EVERY DAY THIS WEEK UNTIL TUESDAY
WITH ONLY ONE INTERRUPTION NOTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL VENTILATED BY THE JET STREAM THAT
REMAINS CLOSE OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND AIDED BY THE FLEETING
AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT OFTEN CORRESPOND TO THE BEST
HEATING AT THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VEERING WINDS
TODAY WITH A MORE CONTINUOUS CHANGE ON SUBSEQUENT SOUNDINGS AND
INDEED AFTERNOON BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS REMAIN BELOW 120 AND GO
AS LOW AS 14 SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUGGEST THAT
UPDRAFTS CAN BE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. ALSO SOUNDINGS BECOME
MORE AND MORE SATURATED AS THEY GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY WHEN THE
BEST MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOW AROUND 1.5 INCHES THEY DID PEAK TO 2 INCHES
OVER BAYAMON WHEN CONVECTION BEGAN PUSHING MOISTURE HIGHER INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LED TO MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 48 MM MOVING OVER SAINT CROIX THIS MORNING
AND POSSIBLY PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER TO CONFIRM THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.

FORECASTS ARE CONTINUING TO SET THE AREA UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION SINCE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ADD TO THE SATURATION OF SOILS AND RIVER
RUN-OFF EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WEEKEND AT THE
LATEST. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO POSTPONE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EACH
DAY...AND 5 DAY TOTALS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 12 TO 16 INCH
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS OF PUERTO RICO WITH
AT LEAST 4 INCHES DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EMERGENCY AND WATER MANAGERS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN PRELIMINARY PREPARATIONS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT MOSTLY VFR. BUT OCNL MVFR/ISOLD IFR BY AFT 01/16Z AT
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE ISOLD/SCT
MVFR IN SHRA. LLVL WINDS E-ESE 6-14 KT BLO FL050 VEERING TO WEST ABV
AND INCR WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
INCLEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL TUESDAY WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 76 / 60 40 60 20
STT 84 74 84 77 / 30 40 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14007
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alot of moisture with that blob in the gulf huh.............
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

GARCIA
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like i said my forecast for storms is 19-22 an early start to this year
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Good Morning Folks!....................
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.
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Zane appears to be weakening with the degrading cloud structure and warming of the cloud tops due to increasing northwesterly shear.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


They're actually quite marginal where that convection is now. However, there are no signs of lowering pressures in the area, although some of the global models, particularly the GFS, suggest that could happen over the next 12-24 hours.
wow are u serious? so we could see somthing out of this
?
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Tropical Cyclone Zane heading to Cape York Peninsula

Zane should be the first tropical cyclone in seven years to cross
Queensland's Cape York Peninsula, likely reaching category three.

Tropical Cyclone Zane formed off the Queensland coast on Tuesday
morning as it quickly developed and sped westwards. The cyclone will
move west-northwest and should cross the coast between Orford Ness and
Lockhart River late on Wednesday as a category two or three cyclone.

The last time a tropical cyclone crossed the Peninsula was in April
2006 when Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica crossed just south of
Lockhart River as a category three system.

The primary difference between Zane and Monica is that Zane is moving
quicker and should bring less rainfall. Winds from Zane will be quite
similar to Monica with a cyclone warning issued from Cape Grenville to
Cape Tribulation. Tropical Cyclone Zane brings the risk of gusts to
150km/h from Gape Grenville to Cape Sidmouth. When Monica hit the
coast it brought gusts to approximately 150km/h with Lockhart River
recording a gust of 109km/h and gaining over 300mm in the period of a
few days. Due to the fast moving nature of Zane this cyclone should
bring less rainfall, but flash flooding is still a risk for parts of
far northern Queensland.

Zane will quickly dissipate on Thursday as the system crosses into the
Gulf of Carpentaria. It will become a low rather than developing into
a category five system like Monica did seven years prior. Wind and
rain will ease, particularly for areas south of Cooktown. On Friday
the tropics should only experience scattered showers and fresh
southeasterly winds.

© Weatherzone 2013
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
I see some folks predicting a busy year for hurricanes
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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