Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

Share this Blog
44
+

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1069 - 1019

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Grothar, you may have to revisit this un-named blob in post-season analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1068. intampa
tradition shows that the more we hype rain for tampa bay area the less likely it really happens. therefore i dont think there will be any more rain in the tampa area this week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1067. Grothar
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


2" PWAT coming into that blob.


Scott, should I give a Grocon level on this now?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting stoormfury:
the area in the GOM only has aa mid level circulation. there is no indication that it will move down to the surface. Floridians should expect a big rain event with gusty winds.



Well the chances of anything being tropical is unlikely, however upper divergence is sufficient enough for surface low genesis. It's not striking, but certainly possible.

Tropical development is not impossible though.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
1065. Grothar
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This is to all you nay sayers about our first named system of the year.





I posted that TC formation yesterday and got no response. I just hope that when we warned SFLweatherman last week about his prom, he remembered. People never listen to us. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting Jedkins01:



It looks like a surface low wants to organize in the southern gulf to the WSW of that complex.


And holy moisture flow batman:




2" PWAT coming into that blob.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting WxLogic:
Will be interesting to see if some tropical characteristics are acquired by that low pressure if it stays long enough over water.

Assuming the ULL to it's NW retrogrades a bit more. For now shear has decreased... not optimal but enough for a sheared system.


I'm thinking at most 40mph Sub-TS and that is really pushing it though shear is kinda expected to drop below 25 in the area as early as 36 hours so... you know
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1061. VR46L
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
it looks like the 1st tropical wave, is about to exit the African coast ,the next 24 hrs.


If it is , its coming off Africa to far south .. but I doubt its viability

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6972
1060. LargoFl
one good thing..my county's drought index will get lowered bigtime ...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Just because.

CFSv2 500mb geopotential height anomaly forecast for September 2013.

This sort of pattern is very conducive for multiple hurricane strikes on the East Coast.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting icmoore:


Good morning Scott and everybody. So what do you think about us in Madeira Beach we've been very dry lately. A lot more moisture to our north in the nature coast as well as inland and south of us. The cooler shelf waters have caused a lot of rain coming our way to dissipate before reaching the shore.


Not this time 1" to 2" of rain for you today alone. Get ready it's coming.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting WxLogic:
Will be interesting to see if some tropical characteristics are acquired by that low pressure if it stays long enough over water.

Assuming the ULL to it's NW retrogrades a bit more. For now shear has decreased... not optimal but enough for a sheared system.



GGEM
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
the area in the GOM only has aa mid level circulation. there is no indication that it will move down to the surface. Floridians should expect a big rain event with gusty winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1054. icmoore
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


No you won't. Hang in there today I bet you get easily 2" of rain. It's coming just sit back grab a fresca and watch the rain come in.



Good morning Scott and everybody. So what do you think about us in Madeira Beach we've been very dry lately. A lot more moisture to our north in the nature coast as well as inland and south of us. The cooler shelf waters have caused a lot of rain coming our way to dissipate before reaching the shore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1053. LargoFl
IF you read ncstorms NHC report..the actual low in the gulf..wont come ashore in west central florida coast til Saturday?...wow thats a LONG time to stay out there and build huh..and we are now..in May whew.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
WOW! This whole complex is rotating.




It looks like a surface low wants to organize in the southern gulf to the WSW of that complex.


And holy moisture flow batman:


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
1051. Grothar
Quoting Doppler22:
I've been out for a day or two... so I need to know one thing, Grothar, did you name the thing in the Gulf a Blob yet?


No.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
1050. WxLogic
Will be interesting to see if some tropical characteristics are acquired by that low pressure if it stays long enough over water.

Assuming the ULL to it's NW retrogrades a bit more. For now shear has decreased... not optimal but enough for a sheared system.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1049. LargoFl
clipped from ncstorms post...we in tampa bay area need to really Watch this storm.........................ALTHOUGH SOME DISCORD IN
THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO SAT. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR NOW SHOWING THE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE W CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY SAT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
1048. VR46L
Good Morning Folks ...


This water vapour loop conjurs thoughts of Dante's Inferno






Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6972
WOW! This whole complex is rotating.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting indianrivguy:


Brooksville? cold up there...

Dang Scott.. sure don't want a bunch of rain on the Kissimmee river watershed... looks like we will anyway :(

Guess my protest rally in Rockledge will be blobbed.. a pox on that Grothar guy for causing this...


No, it has been beautiful! low to mid 60's at night and upper 80's daytime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1045. LargoFl
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Something else interesting today. The high in Midland TX is 96 today the high tomorrow? 47! What a front!
yeah they say texas might see some near record lows from this system
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
1044. ncstorm
longest marine discussion I have seen this year from the NHC in reference to the GOM

000
AGXX40 KNHC 010801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SECTORIZED GFS IN WESTERN GULF TO CAPTURE HIGHER WINDS BEHIND
FRONT.

A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF. A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 0330 UTC
CAPTURED A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT MESOSCALE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
DOMINANT SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE
SURFACE CONSISTS OF A SERIES OF SUCH TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE GULF
MIGRATING ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES WELL NE OF THE AREA...WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TODAY AHEAD OF A MAJOR DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
TEXAS COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS BETTER ACCORD CONCERNING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALES BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS IN GMZ017 EARLY FRI. THE GEFS IS CONSISTENTLY BULLISH
WITH PROBABILITIES OVER 90%...IN LEAGUE WITH THE SREF. THE UKMET
HAS JOINED THE GFS OPERATIONAL SHOWING GALES AT THIS TIME AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL WEAKER WITH ONLY 30 KT.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OUTSIDE THE
AREA OF SUSTAINED GALES. JUDGING BY SST'S AND MODEL STABILITY
GUIDANCE...THE AREA FROM 24N TO 26N W OF 96W WILL LIKELY HAVE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WILL INCLUDE THIS AS PART OF THE
GENERAL GALE WARNING AREA IN THE FORECAST AS A GENERAL GALE FOR
CLARITY REASONS. THE VERACRUZ COAST FARTHER SOUTH IN GMZ023
REMAINS MORE TROUBLING. SREF GUIDANCE STILL CONTENDS A 50% CHANCE
FOR GALES THERE BY AFTERNOON...S OF 22N W OF 95W. THIS IS A USUAL
AREA FOR GALES BEHIND COLD FRONTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS
MAY...AND THE SUN ANGLES ARE HIGH...THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE MODIFIED ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
GALES FOR GMZ023. SEAS ARE BASED ON MWW3 OUTPUT WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD MADE IN THE NW GULF LATE THU TO ACCOUNT FOR
FASTER WAVE GROWTH BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER CONSENSUS AS WELL IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW IN THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME DISCORD IN
THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO SAT. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR NOW SHOWING THE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE W CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY SAT.
THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE
THROUGH SAT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF DIMINISH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT INTO
SUN REMAIN LESS CERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER IN PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GENERAL WEAKNESS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT ENDS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE GEFS AVERAGING OUT A MORE GENERAL TROUGH OVER
FLORIDA. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS AN OUTLIER...SHOWING ONLY A VERY BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. EXTENDED FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS/ECMWF
BLEND.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something else interesting today. The high in Midland TX is 96 today the high tomorrow? 47! What a front!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1042. LargoFl
Tampa nws says we got good rain chances thru tuesday..which is great news...lightning yesterday started a brush fire in polk county..................................
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting Neapolitan:
Amarillo, Texas, reached 97 yesterday afternoon. The forecast calls for snow tonight and tomorrow, and a Friday morning low of 28.

Temperatures in the Los Angeles area are expected to reach the upper 90s tomorrow.

It was 106 in Death Valley yesterday. It's -22 in Deadhorse, Alaska right now.

Parts of Denver that saw temperatures near 80 on Monday are expecting up to 20" of snow today and tomorrow.

Ain't this a fun year? ;-)


talk about extremes!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Picked up 8.76" of rain for the month of April. Unheard of as April is the driest month of the year!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Amarillo, Texas, reached 97 yesterday afternoon. The forecast calls for snow tonight and tomorrow, and a Friday morning low of 28.

Temperatures in the Los Angeles area are expected to reach the upper 90s tomorrow.

It was 106 in Death Valley yesterday. It's -22 in Deadhorse, Alaska right now.

Parts of Denver that saw temperatures near 80 on Monday are expecting up to 20" of snow today and tomorrow.

Ain't this a fun year? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



LOL, its interesting because we actually had an extremely wet May a few years ago from almost the same type of blocking pattern. An upper level low developed along the gulf coast followed by a surface low in the gulf and the features hung out a lot longer than even originally anticipated and half of May was a drencher.


Yup, up to 36" of rain NW of Daytona Beach in Bunnel. I picked up 17" of rain the last 2 weeks in May.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
deleted
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Scott has been talking about this event for days!
Looks like it will play out as the models predicted.
No flooding predicted yet for Central Florida according to NWS Melbourne.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1035. LargoFl
some nice thunderstorms just about 30 miles off bradenton
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
1034. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:


Are you being sarcastic?
I think they do a great job and are really the hub now that hurricane season is almost here.
no i wasnt i meant they DO a good job, i follow miami more that any others when a storm is close to florida..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
The Euro still has this low over FL at 144hrs. This is gearing up to be major flood set up for FL.





LOL, its interesting because we actually had an extremely wet May a few years ago from almost the same type of blocking pattern. An upper level low developed along the gulf coast followed by a surface low in the gulf and the features hung out a lot longer than even originally anticipated and half of May was a drencher.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Long Range Reflectivity out of Key West and Tampa Backs up what the Infrared shows.

Link

Link

Looks to me like Keys will pick up a little more than the 5 day shows.


Yeah the whole state of FL is in line for this. Major rain event state wide for the next 5 days.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting Hernando44:


I'm 50 miles N of Tampa, and we miss alot of the rain that Tampa receives.


Brooksville? cold up there...

Dang Scott.. sure don't want a bunch of rain on the Kissimmee river watershed... looks like we will anyway :(

Guess my protest rally in Rockledge will be blobbed.. a pox on that Grothar guy for causing this...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hernando44:


I'm 50 miles N of Tampa, and we miss alot of the rain that Tampa receives.



Don't be plagued by forgetfulness, your region gets plenty of rain on average as well. Its just natural to feel the weather is behaving as you say when your in a prolonged dry period. It will return in earnest for you as well in due time.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
The Euro still has this low over FL at 144hrs. This is gearing up to be major flood set up for FL.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
GGEM precip accum


GFS precip accum


Long Range Reflectivity out of Key West and Tampa Backs up what the Infrared shows.

Link

Link

Looks to me like Keys will pick up a little more than the 5 day shows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah Miami is doing a great job alright


Are you being sarcastic?
I think they do a great job and are really the hub now that hurricane season is almost here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


No you won't. Hang in there today I bet you get easily 2" of rain. It's coming just sit back grab a fresca and watch the rain come in.



LOL, thanks. We shall see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hernando44:


I'm 50 miles N of Tampa, and we miss alot of the rain that Tampa receives.


No you won't. Hang in there today I bet you get easily 2" of rain. It's coming just sit back grab a fresca and watch the rain come in.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You are wrong there. Tampa is in store for atleast 5" of rain the next few days.


I'm 50 miles N of Tampa, and we miss alot of the rain that Tampa receives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GGEM precip accum


GFS precip accum
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
1021. LargoFl
Quoting Hernando44:
Largo: It looks like we will stay pretty much high and dry today, while south of Tampa Bay will once again get
hit with alot of rain.
I dont know about that..I think Tampa Bay will get alot of rain the next 3 days or so..models say all the way til tuesday we'll see how this all plays out day by day...BUT..i say we in florida are sure lucky..this is still our DRY season..any rain we get now is a blessing.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, maybe get a lot of it, too.
will be interesting to see how it plays out.
so far Miami is doing a better job with it than Oklahoma is...lol But that makes sense, doesn't it.



Miami is a severe weather hotspot too, its just nobody wants to admit it or dare declare it that because its a tropical vacation site, its also one of the wettest places in the U.S. but most people don't know that either.

The difference is that severe diurnal thunderstorm events just get payed no attention by the SPC because they aren't MCS events or frontal related. The local NWS deals with things nicely and always point out the severe threat along with local forecasters. People who live here long enough come to expect occasional severe weather as well during the summer rainy season.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
This is to all you nay sayers about our first named system of the year.



Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438

Viewing: 1069 - 1019

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
18 °F
Overcast