Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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That is big rain coming!!!


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I think the convection in the gulf may cross out into the Atlantic, or may spark more convection farther south, but we will have to wait and see.

But in other news, I got my first thunderstorm of the year (it was actually multiple storms in training) last night.
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1117. LargoFl
TEXANS PAY ATTENTION......................................
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THE 3RD
OF MAY AND SATURDAY THE 4TH OF MAY. RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF
MAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE BROKEN OR APPROACHED. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW LYING SPOTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH LOWER TO
MID 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME LOW LYING AND
WIND SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY MAY EVEN BRIEFLY APPROACH
FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY MAY 3RD AND
SATURDAY MAY 4TH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR AUSTIN...DEL RIO AND SAN
ANTONIO.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM....44 IN 2011 AND 38 IN 2011
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...45 IN 1929 AND 42 IN 1907
DEL RIO.............45 IN 1970 AND 47 IN 1954
SAN ANTONIO.........47 IN 2011 AND 44 IN 1954

THE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY ARE LISTED BELOW.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM....38 ON MAY 4...2011
AUSTIN MABRY........40 ON MAY 1...1925
DEL RIO.............45 ON MAY 3...1970
SAN ANTONIO.........43 ON MAY 9...1984

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
06Z GFS Total Precipitation Amounts out to 6 Days (144 Hours)...

click to enlarge

SIU, its gonna be an active week for us. Go from record low flows to what could be a bad situation between St. Louis points south along the Mississippi in just one year.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

It gets very humid in the Mid-Mississippi Valley where I am in Southern Illinois, but that is usually only confined to the Dog Days of Summer (July & August). And it is unbearable at times. I simply could not image that year round like where you are.
Your body gets adapted to the heat your sweat pours open up and you get dehydrated because of sweating a lot
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1113. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE AREA WITH SEA BREEZES, MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE
NORMAL, AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND EAST COAST
AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FLOODING: THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY IS
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF STREET FLOODING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER ENTERING
CARS OR MAY BE EVEN STRUCTURES IN AREAS HARDEST HIT AND WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.

WIND: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH
WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HAIL: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SMALL HAIL (DIME SIZE OR
LESS) WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TORNADOES: AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WATERSPOUTS: AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH TO MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
The bouy where the West winds were is pretty much right in the middle of the Gulf.

Link
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

I still cannot believe you had a heat index at 126 yesterday. Oh, boy. And sorry to hear about your livestock loss.
Living in the tropics is sometimes unbearable because of the hummidity we rarly get hummidity readings under 60%
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ATCF is making a test with the GOM area.

al88L
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14311
1107. LargoFl
my friend just called me from sarasota,"do you see that HUGE blob in the gulf"??...he was kinda concerned,you could tell in his voice..i told him relax..its JUST alot of rain with maybe some good gusts and lightning..NO eye wall etc..its NOT a hurricane lol..just alot of rain which we do need...he relaxed and laughed..but im wondering just how many in florida are right now thinking the way he was before he called....relax..its just rain..alot of rain.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
Some one who is more intelligent than I, can maybe answere

That feather like feature to the northwest of the blob, is that not indicative of an outflow

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Quoting Jedkins01:


Not quite, I've seen a number of really crazy events in the Tampa Bay area that isn't expected to be much. Its that the Tampa shield thing is a social phenomenon so its perceived that way. Debby last year was a great example. Even when forecasters realized it was heading towards Florida, the Tampa Bay area was expected to get only 1 to 3 inches of rain and gusts "up to 40 mph". Well it ended up being over a 12 inches in spots long with hours of tropical storm force wind gusts upwards of 60 mph and at times stronger with sustained winds at what max gusts were supposed to be, lol. Not to mention we had a local severe weather outbreak from those bands with numerous severe thunderstorm wind damage events and tornadoes touching down across West Central Florida. I was driving towards the beach that day to check out the surf and caught caught in severe weather, I had to dodge a roof that got blown off someones home that was sitting on Ulmerton road.

That's just one of many examples.


One of those severe weather/wind damage events associated with Debby happened right here in my immediate neighborhood. I lost a large hickory tree on my property and one side window was blown out. My next door neighbor was less fortunate, as she lost two large trees and her neighbor on the other side had an oak tree crash down and cause severe damage to the roof of that house. We also lost power for about 12 hours due to downed power lines. The damage path extended for about a mile both north and south from me with similar results in a number of locations.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



It looks like a surface low wants to organize in the southern gulf to the WSW of that complex.


And holy moisture flow batman:




I check bouy obs earlier today and there are winds from the West, North, South East and South confirming that.

Station 42001 had winds from the West but have now switched to the south with pressure rising rapidly.
Station 42360 to its North had North wind and pressure rising.
Station 42003 to the East had South wind 25 gusting to 30. Pressure steady at 29.84.
Station 42099 had South East waves, No pressure reading.
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1103. Grothar
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1102. LargoFl
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Good morning/afternoon/evening all

I'd just like to know (and I'm not being sarcastic here) when LargoFl is not being watchful?? ;)

Great night of fishing over here, about 150 pounds of Yellowtail caught. Six-foot shark decided it was easier to catch our fish we were pulling up (handlining) so we eventually gave up and came home.

Looking forward to the rains forecasted for the island in the next few days.

Lindy
LOL i Love watching the weather,especially so when it threatens florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
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The blogg is exploding with or first area of interest this year .
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Quoting LargoFl:
..you know I am going to be Very watchful today, if you follow the radar that huge blob is not moving due east, its growing and moving ENE..we in the tampa bay area just might get a little of this when it comes ashore..i'd like to see the radar around lunchtime,my guess is we do get some of it today.


Good morning/afternoon/evening all

I'd just like to know (and I'm not being sarcastic here) when LargoFl is not being watchful?? ;)

Great night of fishing over here, about 150 pounds of Yellowtail caught. Six-foot shark decided it was easier to catch our fish we were pulling up (handlining) so we eventually gave up and came home.

Looking forward to the rains forecasted for the island in the next few days.

Lindy
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1096. Grothar


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Data Buoy
1011MB
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Link
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Hello everyone,

I have a question about the small low pressure in the GOM. Is the center over Louisiana, or is it the large convective area over water?
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Quoting indianrivguy:


sorry.. I meant in winter... I lived in Spring Lake. I arrived mid December, just in time for the 82 freeze... after the 85 freeze, I had enough and moved back to Jensen.


I knew what you meant. Yes, can be quite cold here in the winter, but only lasts a few days. But we do have our beautiful weeki wachee river to enjoy no matter what the temp.
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Yea!!!

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1091. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
Quoting Jedkins01:



Miami is a severe weather hotspot too, its just nobody wants to admit it or dare declare it that because its a tropical vacation site, its also one of the wettest places in the U.S. but most people don't know that either.

The difference is that severe diurnal thunderstorm events just get payed no attention by the SPC because they aren't MCS events or frontal related. The local NWS deals with things nicely and always point out the severe threat along with local forecasters. People who live here long enough come to expect occasional severe weather as well during the summer rainy season.


One thing you will not hear mentioned publicly but is known by meteorologists on the "inside" is this.. The May, 1997 EF-1/borderline EF-2 tornado which struck downtown Miami opened up a lot of minds about the nature and significance of severe weather events in the Miami area. No small part of this renewed awareness came about as a result of how well that event was recorded on video and the spectacular visuals which resulted from this. It looked like a typical Kansas tornado framed by the high rise buildings in downtown Miami.

This tornado also served as a landmark for meteorologists in understanding factors that can lead to surprisingly potent events across Florida as a whole, such as sea breeze boundary collisions, the potential effects which can stem from minor shortwave energy impulses crossing Florida during the Springtime months, the importance attached to upper level disturbances which come along from time to time and so on, all of which was less well understood in the recent past.

There is still a lot of room for improvement because Florida is somewhat unique, as you know, in terms of the nature of its somewhat peculiar and often more localized meteorological profile than is true for the vast majority of the landmass in the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. And yes, the SPC still primarily focuses on the larger MCS setups which are most common elsewhere but even so there is now more awareness about localized severe weather impacts in Florida than was true even just two decades ago.
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Almost looks like a TS heading to FLA.




it's not at the surface though
still a blob
from what I understand, it may not have the structure to hold on to all that moisture
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1088. ncstorm
low in the GOM

Surface analysis map
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013



FRI-SUN...THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSHING EAST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA
IN A MOIST ONSHORE WIND FLOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD LOW
OVER THE STATE BY THE WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE GFS
THOUGH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SHOULD SUSTAIN AN ONSHORE WIND. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST WPC PROGS.

WITH BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY FRI AND MAYBE INTO SAT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
TO MOS POPS AND HAVE INDICATED 50-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-
SAT.

TAKEN AT FACE VALUE...THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS LOW LEVEL
VEERING FLOW DUE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THIS COULD BRING
A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES
. BY SUN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DRYING AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3294
I just finished a blog on my preliminary May temp forecast and my weekly local forecast. Feel free to check it out if you want.
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Quoting Hernando44:


No, it has been beautiful! low to mid 60's at night and upper 80's daytime.


sorry.. I meant in winter... I lived in Spring Lake. I arrived mid December, just in time for the 82 freeze... after the 85 freeze, I had enough and moved back to Jensen.
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23-28N 83-90W
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Almost looks like a TS heading to FLA.


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It coming!!!:)



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1081. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
1080. Grothar
If this were December, I would be worried.

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Quoting WxLogic:


We shall see what comes out of it... assuming it stays over water.
I think it would NHC say it will stay untill 7-96 hrs out at least that is what is in there forecast also forecasting a small part to break off and from a Low in the W carib near Hon.
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Quoting intampa:
tradition shows that the more we hype rain for tampa bay area the less likely it really happens. therefore i dont think there will be any more rain in the tampa area this week.


Not quite, I've seen a number of really crazy events in the Tampa Bay area that isn't expected to be much. Its that the Tampa shield thing is a social phenomenon so its perceived that way. Debby last year was a great example. Even when forecasters realized it was heading towards Florida, the Tampa Bay area was expected to get only 1 to 3 inches of rain and gusts "up to 40 mph". Well it ended up being over a 12 inches in spots long with hours of tropical storm force wind gusts upwards of 60 mph and at times stronger with sustained winds at what max gusts were supposed to be, lol. Not to mention we had a local severe weather outbreak from those bands with numerous severe thunderstorm wind damage events and tornadoes touching down across West Central Florida. I was driving towards the beach that day to check out the surf and caught caught in severe weather, I had to dodge a roof that got blown off someones home that was sitting on Ulmerton road.

That's just one of many examples.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7563
1077. LargoFl
see friday..here comes the second low in the gulf..wow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
Quoting Grothar:


:) It looks like it my come right over your house.


If it does, I'll stay at my neighbors. :)
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From the TWD...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 22N92W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT WAS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 24N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY END UP REACHING FLORIDA
IF IT REMAINS INTACT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
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1073. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar, you may have to revisit this un-named blob in post-season analysis.


:) It looks like it might come right over your house.
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1072. LargoFl
so IF i read the models right..we get a one-two punch in florida..first we get that huge blob in the gulf coming into us..then..on thursday another low comes into the gulf from texas..builds..and comes into florida saturday over the weekend.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
1071. WxLogic
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I'm thinking at most 40mph Sub-TS and that is really pushing it though shear is kinda expected to drop below 25 in the area as early as 36 hours so... you know


We shall see what comes out of it... assuming it stays over water.
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1070. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39108
Grothar, you may have to revisit this un-named blob in post-season analysis.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.