Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





Lolita came out that year..... or was it Ursala in Dr. No?
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1168. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning to you VR46L..
I agree with you..
This is gonna be a hit and run day..
Nothing unusual for me..
The ITZ sure is staying south right now..
We need another wave to watch..Lol..
The rest of Florida is looking good for moisture if this feature in the GOM stays together..
Shear is lessening but it may not take much to disrupt..


Hiya Pcola,

Shear is definitely down today was looking yesterday at it but its still too high for TS development IMO

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6833
1167. barbamz
Good morning, and a little sideview to the current auroral oval:

Source Spaceweather.com

Pity it isn't a night in winter right now. That would probably be very bright auroras. I can't remember I've seen the aurora oval such strong for quite a long while.
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Quoting Grothar:
I just got a call to do a little translating. It shouldn't be long. See you guys later.
Aufwieder sehen Later Lata Astala proxima Lota or in wich language you need me to tell you
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Something looks off here...

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1164. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar will only issue Blob Alerts on disturbances that have a potential to develope into Invests.


I called it a blob lastnight & gave it an outside chance of seeing an invest Friday or the weekend. That complex of thunderstorms that came through Central FL the other night went up off the Carolina's the moisture from that may get sheared but the near surface reflection might get shunted down & back across FL with this blob of moisture. That is when things may get even more interesting. The attachment tot he parent low is all so another big if about this gaining invest status.

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1162. pcola57
Quoting VR46L:


I dont think you are going to have a deluge .... the bulk of the rain is way south in the Gulf.. There a bit of popcorn to the North maybe with day time heating it might spawn some for ya

RGB


Good Morning to you VR46L..
I agree with you..
This is gonna be a hit and run day..
Nothing unusual for me..
The ITZ sure is staying south right now..
We need another wave to watch..Lol..
The rest of Florida is looking good for moisture if this feature in the GOM stays together..
Shear is lessening but it may not take much to disrupt..
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Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





Agree with you thoughts about this. You think the Atlantic side will have the first TC over the EPAC?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
Development issues notwithstanding, the Blob is one heck of a frontal remnant.......If this was August.....
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1159. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





Even VRL????

LOL
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6833
1158. Grothar
I just got a call to do a little translating. It shouldn't be long. See you guys later.
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May 3!:) lol
Quoting Grothar:


What night is your prom?
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1155. 7544
src="http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLo op/eyw_None_anim.gif" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is that a low now?



maybe this thing has been really growing in size in the last 6 hours and looks whats goin on around the southern portion of it and seems to be all heading due east interesting tho
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1154. Grothar
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


What night is your prom?
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Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





I thought the herring balls would of picked your spirits up.
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1152. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Grothar. Maybe our first Tropical Wave? What do you think?

Africa loop


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.



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Blob watch is in full effect! Mornin' ya'll.
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1150. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

And nothing more. No closed LLC. No tropical wave. No developing low. Nothing that the NHC missed. Just squally weather. A big old stinking rainmaker.

:)


Yeah I somehow don't think they will need to send recon out ....;)
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6833
Good Morning. I see the "Blob" made a slow trek overnight right towards South Florida. Grothar has it covered. Sheer appears to be in 30-40 knot range:

Link

And, while winds are gusting to 31 knots due West of Naples, pressures are rising:

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Wed, 1 May 2013 11:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (170°) at 25.3 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (146°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and rising
Air Temperature: 73.8 F
Water Temperature: 77.7 F


Tropical development is not likely but flooding is...
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1148. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
Today the local met stated today would be a washout..
So far I dunno..



I dont think you are going to have a deluge .... the bulk of the rain is way south in the Gulf.. There a bit of popcorn to the North maybe with day time heating it might spawn some for ya

RGB
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6833
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 01 2013

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N20W TO 1N30W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO
3N BETWEEN 3W AND 10W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN
12W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N12W 3N22W 4N26W 5N40W 8N47W 9N51W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 22N92W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT WAS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 24N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY END UP REACHING FLORIDA
IF IT REMAINS INTACT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS...ENDING WITH
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN THE BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR AREA. VISIBILITIES NEAR 3 MILES OR
SO ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST AREA. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN TEXAS
AND FLORIDA. SCATTERED AND BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO APPEAR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
COAST FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA SOUTHWARD.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST
OF THE APALACHEE BAY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS
KGVX...KVBS...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KEIR...AND
KSPR. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE
ICAO STATION KATP.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 30-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES A 29N91W 24N98W COLD FRONT.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A NORTH-
TO-SOUTH LINE FROM MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA...
AND ACROSS HONDURAS. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 15N81.5W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...AND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW
MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...
AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS IN COLOMBIA ALONG 7N72W
TO 7N78W...INTO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...INTO COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 9N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS AND
IN VENEZUELA...IN CLUSTERS...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
71W AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N72W. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 31N76W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 35N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W
AND 50W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A COLD FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N42W...
THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N40W AND 22N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 29N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N36W 24N49W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 78W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N69W TO 26N62W AND 18N57W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 24W/25W FROM 5N BEYOND 32N.

UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N70W 15N60W
16N50W 20N40W 22N30W...BEYOND 23N23W...
TOWARD AFRICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N40W
23N50W. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 44W. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES A 31N77W
29N74W SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.
ALSO EXPECT NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
77W AND 79W.
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1145. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST May 1 2013
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 22F (993 hPa) located at 24.0S 179.0W is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multi-spectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Convection remains poor in the last 12 hours. System lies east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeast with slight intensification.
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1144. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZANE, CATEGORY ONE (18U)
10:45 PM EST May 1 2013
===========================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Zane (993 hpa) located at 13.2S 145.5E or 245 km east of Lockhart River and 195 km north of Cape Flattery has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center in northern quadrants
100 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZANE, CATEGORY 1, with wind gusts up to 65 knots is moving in a west northwest direction towards the east coast of Cape York Peninsula. The system is expected to cross the coast as a weak Category 1 cyclone between Orford Ness and Cape Sidmouth during Thursday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about coastal areas between Cape Grenville and Cape Flattery overnight and during Thursday morning, and may extend through the northwestern Peninsula district during Thursday.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Orford Ness and Cape Melville. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Heavy rain areas, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop from the east across the Peninsula district overnight and during Thursday, particularly near the coast between Cape Grenville and Cape Flattery.

People between Mapoon to Cape York to Cape Flattery should continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape York to Cape Flattery

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.1S 142.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 11.0S 139.2E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 09.2S 130.6E - 15 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Cyclone Zane is weakening steadily under northwesterly shear. DT 3.0 based on shear pattern, however low level centre accuracy is only fair. MET and PAT are 2.5. Final T based on MET. CI held at 3.0.

The system should continue to weaken as it approaches the far northern Queensland coast, as the environment remains unfavourable for development due to the increased shear associated with the upper trough. Currently forecast a minimal category 1 system at landfall.

Winds are still expected to be strongest on the southern side of the system in the east/southeast flow assisted by synoptic forcing and storm motion.

The system is currently moving towards the west-northwest and it is expected that the system will maintain this track under the influence of a mid-level ridge across Queensland and the central Coral Sea.
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Is that a low now?

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
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Hi Grothar. Maybe our first Tropical Wave? What do you think?

Africa loop
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
update
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1139. pcola57
Latest GOES East..

Click HERE to Enlarge

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Quoting Grothar:


You know me, I never want to get the blog excited.


Grothar will only issue Blob Alerts on disturbances that have a potential to develope into Invests.
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1136. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Beautiful image, VR.


Thank you very Much !

I like it, just shows what it is, a big old rainmaker !
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1135. pcola57
Today the local met stated today would be a wash out for us here..
So far I dunno..

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1134. Grothar
Quoting 7544:



looks like you may have throw in the towel soon and declare this a offical BLOB gro ! morning everyone


You know me, I never want to get the blog excited.
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1133. pcola57




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1130. VR46L
Gulf Of Mexico vap_images/goes


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6833
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Some one who is more intelligent than I, can maybe answere

That feather like feature to the northwest of the blob, is that not indicative of an outflow





found on google
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1128. pcola57
Good Morning All..
72 degrees 93%rh with dews at 69..
Mostly cloudy with winds 14mph out of the East gusting to 21 so far..
Misty outside..
Good for the new plantings.. :)

Cloudy at the beach with the surf starting to kick up some..

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1127. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Indeed. It seems like the region in Southern & Western Illinois up to Peoria is bullseye for the 3-5" totals. The Illinois River just crested recently. All that water flowing south will create havoc on where you mentioned.

Luckily, I don't reside in the Mississippi floodplain in extreme Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri (along the New Madrid Fault Zone).


That bullseye will continue to shift with each model run. Also both the NAM and GFS are overestimating the moisture return with this next system. So those totals might need to be cut in half, but it's still a lot of rain.

Discussion from Lincoln NWS
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Why does the system off the West coast of Florida look like a tropical storm forming yet everyone is saying that it won't form into anything? Is it just because of the pressure difference or sheer?
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1124. 7544
Quoting Grothar:


No.
Quoting Grothar:


No.



looks like you may have throw in the towel soon and declare this a offical BLOB gro ! morning everyone
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1123. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Link Heat index calculator if someone ever needs one
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1121. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
That is big rain coming!!!


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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