Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
134 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

PRC003-011-081-083-099-131-292030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0026.130429T1734Z-130429T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-AGUADA PR-
134 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 133 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS
WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST
430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6717 1825 6682 1819 6687 1831 6718

$$

EM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14209
From the previous blog.

We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim
Date: 29/04/13 Voice of Russia

We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040.’Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries. Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says. “Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”. Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments. “Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn't bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”. Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments. “The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Not to mention that the federal government had already bought the easement rights to flood that land. People were paid for that land to be used as a storage location for Mississippi River water. Some chose to remain, both for residential and agricultural purposes, after the "flood rights" were purchased.


As they are on the Red River too...

"Not All in Moorhead are Interested in a Home Buyout."

Link

"Buyout approval bids well for several homeowners by Red River."

Link
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Quoting VR46L:
I really think this maybe our first wave of the season ...



Let's find out if there are surface observations to see if there is a wind shift.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14209
Quoting Jedkins01:
The map on precip trends is very strange to me, the midwest, Texas and California seem to be suffering drought more often than not for many years now. Those maps seem to be saying the opposite, again, weird.

The northeast makes sense, but some of those other regions are bit confusing to me. I'm not stating they aren't true, I'm just surprised...

I'm wondering if it could be related to increases in "extremes." Droughts might be occurring more frequently and there are larger breaks between wet periods, but when it does rain, it's a deluge. We'd probably need to really dig into the paper and associated data deeper to be sure.
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Quoting aspectre:
11 AussieStorm: Didn't all this happen with the Mississippi River a few years ago, they had to blow up a bank and release the floodwater over prime farm land. Was that 2010?

2011 into the BirdsPoint-NewMadrid Floodway on the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
Some folks got upset because they like the profits they could make from farming in that floodway... conveniently forgetting that it was the rich soil deposited over the ages by such flooding that made it prime farmland.

Not to mention that the federal government had already bought the easement rights to flood that land. People were paid for that land to be used as a storage location for Mississippi River water. Some chose to remain, both for residential and agricultural purposes, after the "flood rights" were purchased.
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I really think this maybe our first wave of the season ...

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6877
Beautiful new image of the "hurricane" at Saturn's north pole, as captured by the Cassini spacecraft. This false color image was created using three different near-infrared bands. With this color scheme red clouds are lower and green clouds are higher in Saturn's atmosphere.



Click image for more info.
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
123 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

PRC023-067-093-121-125-291915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0025.130429T1723Z-130429T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-
123 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 122 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS
WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST
315 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6716 1814 6697 1806 6698 1812 6717

$$

EM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14209
33 biff4ugo P.S. isn't the ice pack over Greenland hundreds of meters thick? Why is it showing hundreds of centimeters?

KeeperOfTheGate's comment27 contains a map showing the accumulation from this year's snowfall but excluding the firn and glacial ice accumulated in previous years.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



i think a few tropical storms need to head inland into TX

Yeah, that coupled with El Nino winters is where we get a large amount of our precipitation. We haven't had either in quite a while.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Will accept donations.






i think a few tropical storms need to head inland into TX
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In other news: VirginGalactic just sent SpaceShipTwo on the first powered manned flight. Completed a 16 second burn that went past Mach 1. Plan is to go into space this year with commercial astronaut (soon to be) David Mackay.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Lakes are well above full now.
Hopefully they stay that way







Will accept donations.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting aspectre:
16 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: 7 regions of tropical storm activity in tropical and subtropical regions of the world

The map appears to highlight where the TropicalCyclones originate rather than the total area in which they are active as cyclones with fully tropical characteristics.
ya i know i was just showing where the arrows were pointing
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Looks like Fargo needs to Adapt. If it is flooding every other year, there must be changes in building codes and flood insurance, right? I read FEMA isn't factoring in Sandy damage for rebuilding on the east coast, but Flooding has gone on long enough on the Red River to make a difference, I hope.

Ogallala aqufer area seems to be getting 15% more rain over most of it. Has any of that helped stop water mining or helped to reacharge water levels there?

P.S. isn't the ice pack over Greenland hundreds of meters thick? Why is it showing hundreds of centimeters?


It's time to start limiting flood insurance for those who choose to build in flood plains.

No new federal flood insurance. If someone wants to build in a floodplain they can purchase insurance from a private company or go without.

"One loss" federal insurance for existing buildings in floodplains. If someone gets flooded out they can use the settlement to repair/rebuild in place but they won't be eligible for federal flood insurance going forward.
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Quoting Grothar:


Interesting article. I already have a list of people for whom I would gladly buy a one-way ticket.



For Gro Hope this brings you a calm !

Madame Butterfly - Maria Callas
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6877
"Corps blows Birds Point levee, floodway open" May 2011.

Link

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Lakes are well above full now.
Hopefully they stay that way






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Here is a land use practice that is also a contributor. A great deal of time and effort has also went into channels/ditches (surface drainage), and such to drain fields as quickly as possible so they can be planted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tile_drainageLink

Tile drainage
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

Tile drainage (in agriculture) is an agriculture practice that removes excess water from soil subsurface. Whereas irrigation is the practice of adding additional water when the soil is naturally too dry, drainage brings soil moisture levels down for optimal crop growth. While surface water can be drained via pumping and/or open ditches, tile drainage is often the best recourse for subsurface water. Too much subsurface water can be counterproductive to agriculture by preventing root development, and inhibiting the growth of crops. Too much water also can limit access to the land, particularly by farm machinery. In terms of access, most modern agriculture depends on the usage of large machinery—tractors and implements—to prepare the seedbed, plant the crop, carry out any cultivation and applications during the growing season, and ultimately, to harvest the crop. Operating most machinery in excessively wet conditions may result in soil degradation because of excessive soil compaction, and inhibit the operation of the machinery (i.e., "getting stuck").
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Rain coming!:)
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Off topic but Virgin Galactic is one step closer...

"A private spaceship designed to carry space tourists made its first rocket-powered test flight today (April 29), reaching supersonic speeds as it paved the way toward commercial flights in the near future."

Link




Interesting article. I already have a list of people for whom I would gladly buy a one-way ticket.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25972
16 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: 7 regions of tropical storm activity in tropical and subtropical regions of the world

The map appears to highlight where the TropicalCyclones originate rather than the total area in which they are active as cyclones with fully tropical characteristics.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
12Z 120HR
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These graphs pretty much sum up how late spring is this year.

http://nd.water.usgs.gov/floodtracking/charts/050 54000.htmlLink


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Off topic but Virgin Galactic is one step closer...

"A private spaceship designed to carry space tourists made its first rocket-powered test flight today (April 29), reaching supersonic speeds as it paved the way toward commercial flights in the near future."

Link


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Quoting aspectre:
11 AussieStorm: Didn't all this happen with the Mississippi River a few years ago, they had to blow up a bank and release the floodwater over prime farm land. Was that 2010?

2011 into the BirdsPoint-NewMadrid Floodway on the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
Some folks got upset because they like the profits they could make from farming in that floodway... conveniently forgetting that it was the rich soil deposited over the ages by such flooding that made it prime farmland.
Good afternoon all. I remember hearing that due to pollution of the waterways, the flooding leaves the fields in a mess. the real concern for them was the fact that their homes were going to be flooded.
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Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
11 AussieStorm: Didn't all this happen with the Mississippi River a few years ago, they had to blow up a bank and release the floodwater over prime farm land. Was that 2010?

2011 into the BirdsPoint-NewMadrid Floodway on the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
Some folks got upset because they like the profits they could make from farming in that floodway... conveniently forgetting that it was the rich soil deposited over the ages by such flooding that made it prime farmland.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Sun just came out here. Marine layer has backed away enough.



62.3 here right now.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Nice forecast Keeper, all in the 60's. You got any snow left on the ground?
nothing snow pack is gone up to about hr north of city grass is going green from the rains and trees finally got some buds starting
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Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
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Nice forecast Keeper, all in the 60's. You got any snow left on the ground?
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Looks like Fargo needs to Adapt. If it is flooding every other year, there must be changes in building codes and flood insurance, right? I read FEMA isn't factoring in Sandy damage for rebuilding on the east coast, but Flooding has gone on long enough on the Red River to make a difference, I hope.

Ogallala aqufer area seems to be getting 15% more rain over most of it. Has any of that helped stop water mining or helped to reacharge water levels there?

P.S. isn't the ice pack over Greenland hundreds of meters thick? Why is it showing hundreds of centimeters?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1566
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:31 PM EDT
Monday 29 April 2013
Condition:Cloudy
Pressure:30.0 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:55.2°F
Dewpoint:52.0°F
Humidity:88%
Wind:SE 9 mph
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all. Hope your day is sunny.


It's sunny and 70F here. :) Goodnight!
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Interesting entry Doc. Thanks!
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night aussie sleep well
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Thanks. I hope this isn't as bad and the warm up is slow and the melt is slower
being so late into spring melt will be very quick now as it warms fast asn opposed to being early in spring and melt is slow

current northern hemisphere snow pack in cm

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Goodnight all. Hope your day is sunny.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Red is Numerous to widespread thunderstorms (60-100% coverage) possible
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 10:58 pm EST on Monday 29 April 2013



A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Thursday Island to Cooktown.

At 10:00 pm EST a tropical low was estimated to be
990 kilometres east of Lockhart River and
820 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and
moving west at 9 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

A deepening tropical low over the northern Coral Sea is moving slowly to the
west and is expected to deepen further as it tracks west towards the far north
Queensland coast.

STRONG GALES may develop about coastal areas between Cooktown and Cape Melville
during Wednesday morning and extend further north to Thursday Island later on
Wednesday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop
across parts of far northern Queensland late Tuesday and during Wednesday as
the tropical low approaches the coast.
People between Thursday Island and Cooktown should consider what action they
will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 12.9 degrees South 152.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Tuesday 30 April

................................................. .............................................

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1445 UTC 29/04/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 152.4E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/0000: 13.0S 150.7E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 998
+24: 30/1200: 12.8S 148.4E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 996
+36: 01/0000: 12.2S 146.0E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 996
+48: 01/1200: 11.3S 143.3E: 130 [235]: 045 [085]: 996
+60: 02/0000: 9.9S 140.1E: 150 [275]: 030 [055]: 1004
+72: 02/1200: 7.6S 136.8E: 165 [310]: 030 [055]: 1005
REMARKS:
The tropical low was located using IR and microwave imagery. Convection has
redeveloped near the centre in the past four hours however there is little
curvature to enable a Dvorak DT to be determined. Hence the Dvorak FT based on
adjusted MET of 2.0. The CI maintained at 2.5. Winds are likely strongest on the
southern side in the E/SE flow assisted by synoptic forcing and storm motion.

The broadscale environment is generally conducive for development, the vertical
shear being low and reasonable upper level outflow. Although there has been
limited development in the past 12 hours, being a small system, there is the
potential for development overnight with the diurnal convective cycle so may
intensify into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Gales remain most likely in the
southern sector.

The low should continue moving to the west and accelerate somewhat under the
influence of a developing mid-level ridge across Queensland and the central
Coral Sea and is likely to reach the far north Queensland coast late on
Wednesday or Thursday morning.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

996mb now, up from 994mb earlier
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Nice Post Doc,
Good Day All,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaneben:


2011...that was quite a historical and destructive event. Around this time of the year too (April/May).

Thanks. I hope this isn't as bad and the warm up is slow and the melt is slower
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Short on temper and long on meanness. So watch your step!!!!


We are watching; we are watching!

Hi there Grothar. Hope your day improves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Short on temper and long on meanness. So watch your step!!!!


is that like i can't sing but can dance

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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