Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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Quoting Jedkins01:
Getting some great lightning activity almost right on top of me, have had some really close lightning hits, awesome stuff!


You're in Florida, the "lightning capitol of the world". :-)
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Just in case anyone wondered what "hurricanes" look like on Saturn:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
116. VR46L
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
TORNADO WARNING
TXC391-409-291845-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0002.130429T1814Z-130429T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
114 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 108 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BONNIE VIEW...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAFT...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BONNIE VIEW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2823 9740 2821 9719 2800 9732 2802 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 191DEG 8KT 2808 9735

$$

JR




Very Nasty Cells from Just West Of Matagorda to Corpus Christi

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6832
sunday also whew.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting jonger1150:
So droughts and more precipitation is increasing.... In the same spot.

Right...


Right.

The warming climate has made weather more variable. We're getting more extreme wet/dry and hot/cold events.

Some places will get a lot dryer and some will get a lot wetter. But others are simply going to get hit with a nice big dose of both.

That's exactly what one should expect when they increase the energy in the system.
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78 yoboi: The Russians have been the most accurate concerning climate...

Yeah, Pravda is really thorough in checking the bona fides of what they publish... which is why it includes flying saucers evacuating Nazis through the Hole at the NorthPole down to their HollowEarth refuge in its articles concerning Arctic exploration.
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saturday also..this is good news.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Getting some great lightning activity almost right on top of me, have had some really close lightning hits, awesome stuff!
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Quoting jonger1150:
So droughts and more precipitation is increasing.... In the same spot.

Right...


Well you do know drought includes other factors than just precipitation, right?
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and friday also with storms, hopefully helping end the drought here..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting VR46L:


The Models cant even agree if the storm modelled next week is a Mid US Event ,a NorEaster or Sub Tropical LOL


And once more the same cast of characters demonstrates that they don't understand the difference between weather and climate.

Is our children learning?
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So droughts and more precipitation is increasing.... In the same spot.

Right...
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2nd one comes in thurs evening..going to be a wet week here..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting MrMixon:
Beautiful new image of the "hurricane" at Saturn's north pole, as captured by the Cassini spacecraft. This false color image was created using three different near-infrared bands. With this color scheme red clouds are lower and green clouds are higher in Saturn's atmosphere.



Click image for more info.

What an incredible picture and storm. The linked page says the storm's eye is 1250 miles across and has winds as fast as 330 mph. The scale is one mile per pixel. Very impressive!
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Quoting 5thAgent:
There's no way to get the "extra" water into an aquifer without disturbing the ph and balance of the water natural found in the aquifer. That would be a disaster.


Extra water filtering through the soil is going to have very close to the same characteristics of the water which now filters through soil. Soluble materials would be slightly diluted (sooner rather than later).

Disaster? I really doubt that.
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ok Tampa bay area..54 hours and we get it hard...stay safe folks..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
TORNADO WARNING
TXC391-409-291845-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0002.130429T1814Z-130429T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
114 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 108 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BONNIE VIEW...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAFT...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BONNIE VIEW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2823 9740 2821 9719 2800 9732 2802 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 191DEG 8KT 2808 9735

$$

JR


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south florida..be very alert wenesday...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
100. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


well I really hope its not depictive of how hurricane season will be with the model runs..will be a lot of excessive drinking thats for sure..


The Models are really scaring me at the moment how poorly they are preforming since the new year .. They really need to sort them out quick ......
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Quoting luvtogolf:
From the previous blog.

We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim


That would be wonderful if true.

The planet certainly could use a couple hundred years of less intense warming while those who follow us figure out how to get billions of tons of CO2 re-sequestered.

Of course it would be foolish on our part to assume that those Russian scientists have made an accurate prediction or that the cooling will be soon enough and large enough. We still need to quit burning fossil fuels.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting VR46L:


The Models cant even agree if the storm modelled next week is a Mid US Event ,a NorEaster or Sub Tropical LOL


well I really hope its not depictive of how hurricane season will be with the model runs..will be a lot of excessive drinking thats for sure..
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Unfinished FEMA Flood Maps Put Sandy Victims In Limbo


by Tracey Samuelson
April 28, 2013 5:12 AM

Superstorm Sandy pummeled the East Coast six months ago, and, as with other natural disasters, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was there from day one, finding people temporary shelter and later supporting rebuilding efforts.

FEMA also has a lesser-known role. It oversees the creation of flood maps, which model the risk of flooding in different areas during storms. These maps are also used to set building codes and flood insurance rates. In New York and New Jersey, FEMA is updating those maps, and so far many homeowners don't like what they are seeing.


Yep, happened in New Orleans. Even being required to raise their houses just 3 feet, many are not returning. (See). Would cost Billions to do that there.

Some would say it was crazy to ever let folks build where they did, but New Orleans is an old town, and they did before government intervenes like it does now.

I personally was shocked to see so much of the population affected by Sandy, living so close to the water. But then again, I am from South Louisiana and have grown up knowing first hand what the weather and ocean can do. Residents of the NE were/are flirting with Disaster too.

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Quoting BobChecks:
Seems to me that it would be wise to start a large scale project to move extra precipitation into aquifers rather than speed its way to the ocean. If rainfall patterns get more variable (more droughts and mini-droughts) we'll need to use more irrigation to get us through the dry spells.

Work to make cities/developments/highways "runoff neutral" or even net negative.

Here in CA some farms in the Central Valley are experimenting with intentionally flooding fields and vineyards during the winter and letting the water soak down to the aquifer rather than run off in streams. As long as the condition of the grape vines is monitored and the extra water not left on too long there seems to be no damage to them.

Some years ago rice growers in the Sacramento area started winter-flooding their rice fields rather than burning off the residue. This was done for reasons of air quality and because it provided feeding/resting grounds for migratory waterfowl, but it also probably puts some extra water 'underground'.

Farmers and cities keep having to drill deeper and deeper to reach water. Why not use those existing aquifer areas to store more?
There's no way to get the "extra" water into an aquifer without disturbing the ph and balance of the water natural found in the aquifer. That would be a disaster.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting ncstorm:


it looks like its part of the monsoon trough..(just copying and pasting and learning..)

from Wikipedia

A monsoon trough is a significant genesis region for tropical cyclones. Vorticity-rich low level environments, with significant low level spin, lead to a better than average chance of tropical cyclone formation due to their inherent rotation. This is because a pre-existing near-surface disturbance with sufficient spin and convergence is one of the six requirements for tropical cyclogenesis.[18] There appears to be a 15-25 day cycle in thunderstorm activity associated with the monsoon trough, which is roughly half the wavelength of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO.[19] This mirrors tropical cyclone genesis near these features, as genesis clusters in 2–3 weeks of activity followed by 2–3 weeks of inactivity. Tropical cyclones can form in outbreaks around these features under special circumstances, tending to follow the next cyclone to its poleward and west.[20] This is different than the Atlantic Ocean, where tropical cyclones mainly form from tropical waves which move offshore Africa, although 2010's Tropical Storm Nicole may have been an exception to this rule.



Sandy detatched from the monsoon Trough just before the Caribbean if I recall correctly ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6832
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting yoboi:


the russians have been the most accurate concerning climate......


I've never heard that claim.

Would you please link to a paper which has studied the accuracy of different agencies and backs your assertion?
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Quoting DoctorDave1:
"This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin."

Did anyone predict the cold spring? And you claim predictions 87 years from now? Give me a break!


The Models cant even agree if the storm modelled next week is a Mid US Event ,a NorEaster or Sub Tropical LOL
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6832
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dr. Masters blogs are of such high quality that it can be used as scholarly sources. I feel that we don't give him enough praise where he deserves it.


He deserves an award for sure.
Really cutting edge, too.

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Quoting VR46L:
I really think this maybe our first wave of the season ...



it looks like its part of the monsoon trough..(just copying and pasting and learning..)

from Wikipedia

A monsoon trough is a significant genesis region for tropical cyclones. Vorticity-rich low level environments, with significant low level spin, lead to a better than average chance of tropical cyclone formation due to their inherent rotation. This is because a pre-existing near-surface disturbance with sufficient spin and convergence is one of the six requirements for tropical cyclogenesis.[18] There appears to be a 15-25 day cycle in thunderstorm activity associated with the monsoon trough, which is roughly half the wavelength of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO.[19] This mirrors tropical cyclone genesis near these features, as genesis clusters in 2–3 weeks of activity followed by 2–3 weeks of inactivity. Tropical cyclones can form in outbreaks around these features under special circumstances, tending to follow the next cyclone to its poleward and west.[20] This is different than the Atlantic Ocean, where tropical cyclones mainly form from tropical waves which move offshore Africa, although 2010's Tropical Storm Nicole may have been an exception to this rule.

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Looks a little unstable around the Big Bend/ Tallahassee
area..



(Off for a sandwich.. :)
Be back shortly..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Seems to me that it would be wise to start a large scale project to move extra precipitation into aquifers rather than speed its way to the ocean. If rainfall patterns get more variable (more droughts and mini-droughts) we'll need to use more irrigation to get us through the dry spells.

Work to make cities/developments/highways "runoff neutral" or even net negative.

Here in CA some farms in the Central Valley are experimenting with intentionally flooding fields and vineyards during the winter and letting the water soak down to the aquifer rather than run off in streams. As long as the condition of the grape vines is monitored and the extra water not left on too long there seems to be no damage to them.

Some years ago rice growers in the Sacramento area started winter-flooding their rice fields rather than burning off the residue. This was done for reasons of air quality and because it provided feeding/resting grounds for migratory waterfowl, but it also probably puts some extra water 'underground'.

Farmers and cities keep having to drill deeper and deeper to reach water. Why not use those existing aquifer areas to store more?
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Quoting pcola57:



Afternoon VR46L..
Looks like that wave is heading down a narrowing tunnel..
Dry air to the north and south of it..
Gonna be close..
I'll be watching with you.. :)


Yeah You are Right Close thing !

I just like wave watching ...

but I will say the Atlantic as regards to Sal is not too dusty


BTW Good afternoon to you too !



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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


As they are on the Red River too...

"Not All in Moorhead are Interested in a Home Buyout."

Link

"Buyout approval bids well for several homeowners by Red River."

Link

Living in a floodplain vs. living in a federally-designated floodway is a bit different. There is a good read on this in the following document, particularly page 6:
http://www.floods.org/ace-files/documentlibrary/R esources/Birds_Point-New_Madrid_info_paper.pdf
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168




Tallahassee, FL (KTLH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Land Use is a big factor.

The second Link introduces the Waffle idea of water management.

http://www.nwf.org/~/media/PDFs/Regional/Northern -Rockies/NRPRC-RedRiverFactsheet.pdfLink

Red River Flood Control:
%u201CBillions for a band-aid ...
or millions for a solution?%u201D

Background
Fargo, North Dakota and Moorhead, Minnesota have always been
threatened by flooding from the Red River of the North. In the last two
decades, however, floods have become more frequent and more severe
because of a combination of a changing climate and the drainage of
thousands of wetlands throughout the Red River Basin.

Prairie wetlands that once soaked up thousands of acre feet of water have
been ditched and drained for agricultural production, increasing both the
amount of spring melt water and the rate at which it enters the Red.

.
.
http://www.undeerc.org/Expertise/pdf/Waffle-Overv iew.pdfLink
1
An Overview of the Waffle Concept

.
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Quoting luvtogolf:
From the previous blog.

We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim
Date: 29/04/13 Voice of Russia

We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040.’Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries. Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says. “Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”. Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments. “Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn't bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”. Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments. “The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports.


the russians have been the most accurate concerning climate......
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"This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin."

Did anyone predict the cold spring? And you claim predictions 87 years from now? Give me a break!
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Quoting VR46L: Post# 62
I really think this maybe our first wave of the season ...




Afternoon VR46L..
Looks like that wave is heading down a narrowing tunnel..
Dry air to the north and south of it..
Gonna be close..
I'll be watching with you.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Let's find out if there are surface observations to see if there is a wind shift.


I am not the best at reading that stuff.... but there appears to be something






Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6832

Unfinished FEMA Flood Maps Put Sandy Victims In Limbo


by Tracey Samuelson
April 28, 2013 5:12 AM

Superstorm Sandy pummeled the East Coast six months ago, and, as with other natural disasters, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was there from day one, finding people temporary shelter and later supporting rebuilding efforts.

FEMA also has a lesser-known role. It oversees the creation of flood maps, which model the risk of flooding in different areas during storms. These maps are also used to set building codes and flood insurance rates. In New York and New Jersey, FEMA is updating those maps, and so far many homeowners don't like what they are seeing.
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12z CMC







big rains for Texas

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Vermont To FEMA: Put Our Flooding On Your Maps

by Nancy Cohen
April 28, 2013 5:12 AM

People in Vermont affected by floods in recent years now wish they could be included on the Federal Emergency Management Agency's flood maps.

The maps for the state are old and don't include flooding from fast-rising rivers and streams, the kind of flooding that tore up Vermont during Tropical Storm Irene.

The neighbors applied for a FEMA program that buys flood-damaged property in order to reduce future flood hazards. But FEMA determined these properties, and six others in Vermont, are not eligible for the program, in part because they are not located in "Special Flood Hazard Areas" on national flood maps.

These areas are where FEMA predicts there is a 1 percent chance every year that a flood of a certain size will occur. The maps, however, don't predict all floods, even the largest ones, including those caused by Irene.

Ned Swanberg, Vermont's flood hazard mapping coordinator, says FEMA maps focus on what's known as "flood inundation," when floodwater sits and soaks things. But he says that's not the big problem in the hilly terrain of Vermont.

The state has asked FEMA to include this type of flooding from river erosion on flood maps.

Another problem is the maps are decades old.

"Right now, we have not made any particular changes in those small, river floodplains in a lot of New England," says Michael Goetz, who recently retired from managing FEMA's mapping program for New England. "And that's not only Vermont, but it's throughout New England."

FEMA's mapping budget this year was cut in half, and there are new priorities as well.

"Congress recently told us that we need to focus most of our attention on mapping all of the populated coastline in the United States," Goetz says.

That isn't exactly a description of Vermont. Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., says he's been advocating for FEMA to fix the maps.
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Quoting aspectre:
39 aspectre: ...the BirdsPoint-NewMadrid Floodway...
42 kwgirl: The real concern for them [farmers] was the fact that their homes were going to be flooded.

If those farmers really gave a rat's ptooey, they wouldn't have built in a flood zone, let alone in a legally designated floodway.
But that's welfare queens for ya: UncleSugar 'll take care of 'em no matter how reckless their behaviour is.


I say let em farm it but the risk is theirs.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
12z GFS-that is one BIG Low









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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
134 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

PRC003-011-081-083-099-131-292030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0026.130429T1734Z-130429T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-AGUADA PR-
134 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 133 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS
WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST
430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6717 1825 6682 1819 6687 1831 6718

$$

EM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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