Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but they are all converging on FL. Some totals of 10" to 20" can not be ruled out.

well IF those totals verify it wont be so bad if the rainfall is spread out from now thru sunday as the GFS predicts..we'll see..im hoping for at least 5 inches here..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
Happy B'Day VR46L..!!



Many Happy's to ya.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6856
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but they are all converging on FL. Some totals of 10" to 20" can not be ruled out.



yep..Florida is the sweet spot right now..
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Quoting ncstorm:


I have to say the models are over the place with rainfall..


Yeah but they are all converging on FL. Some totals of 10" to 20" can not be ruled out.

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Quoting VR46L:



Na NC ... I dont believe in the ignore button ... I would argue my corner but today is my Birthday and I dont feel like arguing... Will be having a Remi Martin or two shortly LOL


oh HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!..I'm buying!!! LOL!
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well there you have it..when you have to use the term crystal ball about a forecast, its looks like a low confidence forecast..if you live in the south/southeast and look outside all this week and see a wet substance falling, its raining..only way to be sure.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1002 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

VALID 12Z THU MAY 02 2013 - 12Z MON MAY 06 2013


THE METEOROLOGICAL CRYSTAL BALL BECOMES INCREASING MURKY THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE--THE PRIMARY CULPRIT BEING WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. RELIED ON THE 00Z/29
ECENS MEAN FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER DAY 4, WHICH WAS
ROBUSTLY CORRELATED WITH THE 00Z/29 GEFS MEAN OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR AT LEAST FOUR MODEL CYCLES NOW--ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE
TO WHAT FEELS LIKE A ROLL OF THE DICE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LATE-SEASON SNOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DAY 3
INTO EARLY DAY 4, WITH A JUICY LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AFTER DAY 4, THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
NESTLE MAKES QPF/POPS RATHER "WASHED OUT" OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THE TENDENCY FOR A NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME DOES SHUT
DOWN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN
GULF IN PLAY--A CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

A LOW ALONG THE TAIL END OF A FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FINALLY, THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
SORTING OUT THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE PACKET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AT
THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE--WITH IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DAYS 6 AND 7. THE
00Z/29 ECMWF AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEND A SHARP COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF WESTERN CANADA--IMPLYING INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WINDS, THERMAL CONTRAST, POPS, AND QPF. THE 00Z/29 ECENS
MEAN OFFERS A MORE DILUTED SYSTEM, WHICH SEEMS A SAFER BET UNTIL
BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED.


CISCO
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
162. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
VR, dont let "them" run you from the blog..just put him on ignore..



Na NC ... I dont believe in the ignore button ... I would argue my corner but today is my Birthday and I dont feel like arguing... Will be having a Remi Martin or two shortly LOL
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6932
Quoting Neapolitan:
Speaking of New Orleans, have any of you seen a map of the area with just a relatively modest 1-meter rise? From Climate Central:

NOLA

In case you can't make that out, just that bit of rise places I-10 underwater, turns I-12 into a coast-hugging highway, and renders New Orleans utterly unlivable. Think about that: Even if there are no more Katrinas, New Orleans is very likely to become a ghost city well before the end of the century.

Laissez les bons temps rouler! :\


Does that map imply a 1 meter rise by 2020? Have a link? That seems a bit much. The outlier estimates I've seen say 20' by 2100. But that is an extreme estimate, and most are less.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Hey Jed.....to answer your question from last night, I live in SE Florida now.....


Oh ok, Enjoy! Vastly different than CA, that's for sure!
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Geesh!



I have to say the models are over the place with rainfall..
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Wow, let's hope that doesn't verify!!!



Here's the GFS. There is going to be some serious rainfall totals all across the state by the end of this week.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
I guess that means the Southernmost Point marker will have to be moved every few years. Bummer; that thing's big and heavy.

sp

(And to save time, someone may wish to use peel-and-stick numerals to show the increasing distance to Cuba. 90 miles, then 135, then 170, then 210...)


Every few years? Certainly sea level rise in the long term, but not an appreciable difference every few years.
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VR, dont let "them" run you from the blog..just put him on ignore..
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Geesh!



Wow, let's hope that doesn't verify!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 689
A top-ten Fargo flood in 4 of the Past 5 years? Meh. I wouldn't read anything into it. I'm sure it's just a coincidence. A fluke. A random roll of the meteorological dice... ;-)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dr. Masters blogs are of such high quality that it can be used as scholarly sources. I feel that we don't give him enough praise where he deserves it.
Agreed; he is an awesome resource, and all he asks in return is that we take the time to read what he takes the time to research and write. It's a shame that some people are so busy chastising him for speaking out about our changing climate that they have no time left to show their appreciation to him for the many things he does do. But, well, that's human nature, I suppose.

I see the southern European heat wave was still going on today, with a number of locations--mostly in Italy--experiencing their warmest ever April temperatures; there were a lot of readings in the upper 80s. Too much, and too soon...
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Geesh!

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Quoting yoboi:



should i really link it????


I don't care. An article from The Hill about a dozen democrats in the House using poor rhetoric to predict future social implications of climate change is hardly "blaming climate change" or facts, just poor, misplaced rhetoric. To say it's representative of Dr. Rood's blog "blaming climate change" or implying agreement with the article is misleading and dishonest. Sad.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I guess that means the Southernmost Point marker will have to be moved every few years. Bummer; that thing's big and heavy.

sp


Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 689
Another, more stunning picture from SpaceShipTwo.
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The FIRST day of real summer pop up storms here in the panhandle. This is the most convective activity I have seen in months from the ground here in Pensacola.
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Image of the Lower Keys with 1 meter rise!!!

I guess that means the Southernmost Point marker will have to be moved every few years. Bummer; that thing's big and heavy.

sp

(And to save time, someone may wish to use peel-and-stick numerals to show the increasing distance to Cuba. 90 miles, then 135, then 170, then 210...)
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Image of the Lower Keys with 1 meter rise!!!

Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 689
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Gearsts,you have a shield where you live.

You don't understand how angry i get when i look outside and the rain just dissipates in front of my eyes :O The great Aguadilla Shield of 2013!
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

That makes my house beachfront property!
So long as it stops at 3', yes. Of course, if--as some scientists predict--we see 20' of rise, your property will only be useful for snorkeling trips. But look at the bright side; your children can always sprout gills, and how cool would that be?!
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nws on twitter.............NWS Tampa Bay %u200F@NWSTampaBay 29m
Storms over South FL develop northward through the afternoon. Best chances for a storm exist east of I-75. #flwx ......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
From Dr. M's blog:

"A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?"

My cynical alter ego (or is it the other way around) got a chuckle from this. I realize that North Dakota has had a fracking boom, but that will be followed by a bust as it plays out. Sending more money into the North Dakota economic bubble seems foolish.

It would seem more practical to require land holders to return part of their farm land to water retention ponds like we do with new development in the cities. We did similar improvements in soil management across the Great Plains after the dust bowl. Seems like we could do the same for water management.

Which would you choose? A lot of small inexpensive projects where the cost is shared vs. a big expensive project where the biggest cost (land lost to the diversion canal) is borne by a few?
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142. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:


Stop misrepresenting facts of what's "being blamed" on climate change on Dr. Rood's blog.



should i really link it????
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
243 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

FLZ070-291915-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
243 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL COLLIER
COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND UP TO NICKEL SIZED
HAIL...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 29 TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COPELAND...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 29...
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 839...
BIG CYPRESS ACCESS AREAS OFF ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND UP TO
NICKEL SIZED HAIL. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER
IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER
IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2624 8119 2599 8124 2600 8143 2623 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 197DEG 9KT 2616 8133 2603 8140

$$
KOB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
243 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

FLZ070-291915-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
243 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL COLLIER
COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND UP TO NICKEL SIZED
HAIL...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 29 TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COPELAND...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 29...
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 839...
BIG CYPRESS ACCESS AREAS OFF ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND UP TO
NICKEL SIZED HAIL. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER
IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER
IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2624 8119 2599 8124 2600 8143 2623 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 197DEG 9KT 2616 8133 2603 8140

$$
KOB
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
Quoting MississippiWx:


You're in Florida, the "lightning capitol of the world". :-)


The lightning we are getting isn't frequent but its close and intense, I've seen a lot worse but its also been a long time, definitely the most impressive lightning so far this year compared to those soggy stable rain events earlier this year.
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Hey Jed.....to answer your question from last night, I live in SE Florida now.....
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Quoting yoboi:


well go to Dr Roods blog and see what is now being blamed on climate change......I am at a loss of words now....


Stop misrepresenting facts of what's "being blamed" on climate change on Dr. Rood's blog.
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Gearsts,there is a shield where you live.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14412
Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like today is yet another bust forecast of rain for the west side of Florida...
GFS has the rain coming in after 5pm thru 8pm and beyond..we'll see how it goes.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
Quoting Neapolitan:
Speaking of New Orleans, have any of you seen a map of the area with just a relatively modest 1-meter rise? ... just that bit of rise places I-10 underwater, turns I-12 into a coast-hugging highway, and renders New Orleans utterly unlivable.

That makes my house beachfront property!
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134. yoboi
Quoting VR46L:


For someone who I has only noticed appeared over the weekend you sure are taking alot of pot shots .....


See you folks later ... Today is a special day for me and I am not in the mood to get upset!!!






Have a great day....
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Looks like today is yet another bust forecast of rain for the west side of Florida...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
82 ScottLincoln: Living in a floodplain vs. living in a federally-designated floodway is a bit different. There is a good read on this in the following document, particularly page 6

And there are a lot of places which are now "flood plains" only (or mostly) because folks upriver built "flood barriers" which shifted the flood risk from their own properties to areas downstream.
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Quoting luvtogolf:


So what you are saying is that our models are pretty poor (and they are) at forecasting our weather (short term)....

If you think about all that we are asking them to do, and all of the things that we are having to approximate, they actually don't do that bad, and they certainly do better than used to.

I guess that's a perspective you gain from actually using models in your education, post-graduate research, and everyday work. You have to understand each model you are using, the data you are using to drive it, and the strengths/limitations of that particular model. Such blanket statements are really of no use.
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Quoting DFWdad:


Yep, happened in New Orleans. Even being required to raise their houses just 3 feet, many are not returning. (See). Would cost Billions to do that there.

Some would say it was crazy to ever let folks build where they did, but New Orleans is an old town, and they did before government intervenes like it does now.

I personally was shocked to see so much of the population affected by Sandy, living so close to the water. But then again, I am from South Louisiana and have grown up knowing first hand what the weather and ocean can do. Residents of the NE were/are flirting with Disaster too.

Speaking of New Orleans, have any of you seen a map of the area with just a relatively modest 1-meter rise? From Climate Central:

NOLA

In case you can't make that out, just that bit of rise places I-10 underwater, turns I-12 into a coast-hugging highway, and renders New Orleans utterly unlivable. Think about that: Even if there are no more Katrinas, New Orleans is very likely to become a ghost city well before the end of the century.

Laissez les bons temps rouler! :\
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128. VR46L
Quoting BobChecks:


And once more the same cast of characters demonstrates that they don't understand the difference between weather and climate.

Is our children learning?


For someone who I had only noticed appearing over the weekend you sure are taking alot of pot shots .....


See you folks later ... Today is a special day for me and I am not in the mood to get upset!!!




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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
126. yoboi
Quoting aspectre:
78 yoboi: The Russians have been the most accurate concerning climate...

Yeah, Pravda is really thorough in checking the bona fides of what they publish... which is why it includes flying saucers evacuating Nazis through the Hole at the NorthPole into their HollowEarth refuges in its articles concerning Arctic exploration.


well go to Dr Roods blog and see what is now being blamed on climate change......I am at a loss of words now....
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
Quoting jonger1150:
So droughts and more precipitation is increasing.... In the same spot.

Right...


That's climate change. It was predicted to happen many years ago. More heat = more evaporation = more precipitation.

The precipitation in a warmer world falls in heavier bursts, with more runoff and reduced irrigation per gallon.

Add in higher evaporation rates, and you get more drought. A twelve year old could understand it.
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Quoting BobChecks:


And once more the same cast of characters demonstrates that they don't understand the difference between weather and climate.

Is our children learning?


So what you are saying is that our models are pretty poor (and they are) at forecasting our weather (short term) but are really good at forecasting climate (long term).
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Quoting jonger1150:
So droughts and more precipitation is increasing.... In the same spot.

Right...

Longer dry periods between rain with more of the rainfall coming in high-end precipitation events - it's something that's been observed. So yes, you can have certain areas that see in increase, on average, of both drought severity and flood severity.
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2 Tornado warnings south of Victoria didn't see that coming.
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

PRC001-019-039-043-073-075-107-113-141-149-292130 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0027.130429T1831Z-130429T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-
OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
231 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
OROCOVIS...PONCE...UTUADO...VILLALBA AND ADJUNTAS

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 229 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS
WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST
530 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6678 1823 6651 1818 6632 1806 6632
1811 6658 1817 6680

$$

EM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14412
Quoting Jedkins01:
Getting some great lightning activity almost right on top of me, have had some really close lightning hits, awesome stuff!


You're in Florida, the "lightning capitol of the world". :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.