Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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The general long-range pattern depicted by the GFS ensembles is for a ridge of high pressure across the Desert Southwest, extending into the Pacific Northwest, a ridge of high pressure across the Southeast States and eastern Gulf States, and a dip in the jet stream across the Northeast.

Tornado season remains closed for business through the middle portion of May.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It has been interesting to watch the progression of sea surface temperature anomalies in the MDR over the past week and a half of so. Despite low trade winds, waters are not warming as quickly as others -- including myself -- had forecast they would.

Perhaps a further weakening of trade winds will get the job done, as forecast by the CFSv2 for week 2 especially.

Cooler anomalies look to return not too long afterwards.




The NAO is forecast to go negative very soon so that will do the trick.

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its odd..way back in the mid 80's when i moved to florida and was looking for a house to buy..the first thing i did when i saw the house im in now was..to see the flood plain, watch where the water flowed when it downpoured and how many feet above sea level the house was...im safe as i can be 48 feet above..im guessing many many people who live near the sea didnt do that OR..didnt think at the time it mattered...sea level rise wasnt on peoples minds back then...being close to the water was.....now in retrospect..it was a bad move on their part IF..what the experts are now saying comes true.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting DFWdad:


Yep, read other articles like that. In the past, the sea level has been much higher and much lower than it is now. Forests were found 60 feet in depth off the Mississippi Gulf Coast. They were able to bring up well preserved wood that was uncovered by Katrina.

They are wise to plan ahead.

Ancient forest lies 10 miles off the Alabama coast


Amazing story in today's Telegraph about the ancient city of Heraclieon, which has been submerged under 150 feet of water off the coast of Egypt.

It was only discovered a few years ago and archaeologists have been excavating it ever since. Could take 200 years to be fully excavated. Statues etc are amazingly preserved. No one has much of an idea how it came to be 150 feet under water.

Link
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Quoting DFWdad:
You know, all of these estimates of worst case scenarios in 2100 are not helping, IMHO, the cause to take action.

I can follow research of what is happening now. I read the linked articles here, by Dr. Masters and all.

Tell me what will happen in 5 years, 10 years, 15 years. That is what most people alive now are concerned about. Stick signs in the ground that say, "This is where the water will be, on xx/xx/xx!".

When I hear about something that might happen 87 years from now, natural sensibilities tell me that is quite a stretch, and a lot of could change between now and then. I know why it is done, to extrapolate larger numbers, to be more attention getting. But I think it works against the cause.
yes your right of course..i read somewhere today..they are expecting in MY area..a 3-5 foot sea rise by 2020 and are just now starting to plan for it...i saw a map today of what would happen...most if not all of our beach area's under water etc..well all we can do is talk about it..the govt planners have to really decide what to do.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

FLZ066-070-292030-
HENDRY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
346 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HENDRY
COUNTY...NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED
HAIL...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF FELDA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
DEVILS GARDEN...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
You know, all of these estimates of worst case scenarios in 2100 are not helping, IMHO, the cause to take action.

I can follow research of what is happening now. I read the linked articles here, by Dr. Masters and all.

Tell me what will happen in 5 years, 10 years, 15 years. That is what most people alive now are concerned about. Stick signs in the ground that say, "This is where the water will be, on xx/xx/xx!".

When I hear about something that might happen 87 years from now, natural sensibilities tell me that is quite a stretch, and a lot of could change between now and then. I know why it is done, to extrapolate larger numbers, to be more attention getting. But I think it works against the cause.
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WPB if your lurking-severe storm headed towards your area in a bit..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Tropical Atlantic is almost steady around +0.5C with small fluctuations up and down.


It has been interesting to watch the progression of sea surface temperature anomalies in the MDR over the past week and a half of so. Despite low trade winds, waters are not warming as quickly as others -- including myself -- had forecast they would.

Perhaps a further weakening of trade winds will get the job done, as forecast by the CFSv2 for week 2 especially.

Cooler anomalies look to return not too long afterwards.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
WPC
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXC391-292015-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130429T2015Z/
REFUGIO-
251 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY...

AT 250 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS DETECTED AROUND 11 MILES SOUTH OF
MCFADDIN...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY...
RURAL EASTERN REFUGIO COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2844 9687 2834 9696 2835 9711 2838 9712
2850 9707 2851 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 268DEG 6KT 2839 9703

$$

MB
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting LargoFl:
Florida Keys could be lost due to Rising Seas...Link


Yep, read other articles like that. In the past, the sea level has been much higher and much lower than it is now. Forests were found 60 feet in depth off the Mississippi Gulf Coast. They were able to bring up well preserved wood that was uncovered by Katrina.

They are wise to plan ahead.

Ancient forest lies 10 miles off the Alabama coast
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Quoting VR46L:


Thats a shame Largo ! BTW Thanks :)


Looks like the blobs just Fizzling out before Tampa :(



Yes i dont know why that happens..the cells move towards here and just before they hit, they die out..been that way for a very long time now..oh well we'll see what happens this week..good chances for rain the next few days here.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Today, we can scratch our heads over the news that the island nation of Kiribati is making plans to relocate to someplace higher. But in mere decades from now, thousands of residents of New York City, New Orleans, Boston, Washington, D.C., and southeast Florida could be making similar grim preparations. These are some of the places most at risk from grand-scale floods exacerbated by climate change, according to the study. In human terms, that's 284,000 people in New Orleans whose homes could be underwater by 2100, 141,000 in NYC and 312,000 in the Florida counties of Miami-Dade and Broward.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
203. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
still no rain by me besides that lil shower early this morning


Thats a shame Largo ! BTW Thanks :)


Looks like the blobs just Fizzling out before Tampa :(



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6971
Tornadoes in rural Ohio, The Weather Channel is all over it. Tornadoes in Texas today and no mention... Really???????????????????
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Caribbean is warmer this year than in 2012 on the April 28 date.

2012.



2013.

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Quoting BobChecks:


It's time to start limiting flood insurance for those who choose to build in flood plains.

No new federal flood insurance. If someone wants to build in a floodplain they can purchase insurance from a private company or go without.

"One loss" federal insurance for existing buildings in floodplains. If someone gets flooded out they can use the settlement to repair/rebuild in place but they won't be eligible for federal flood insurance going forward.


I agree. I called it the sand castle rule, since for us that mostly applies to coast lines.
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Florida Keys could be lost due to Rising Seas...Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting BobChecks:


80 years in geological time is a mere flicker of the eye.

The important thing is that they predicted the Arctic sea ice was going to melt. Something that humans had never experienced and many still have trouble accepting.



Yes, in geological time 80 years is a mere flicker if you are forecasting something out thousands to millions of years. We're talking forecasting just 100 years and according to you, missed by 80.

And by the way, I don't believe that the sea ice hasn't melted yet
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still no rain by me besides that lil shower early this morning
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting pcola57:


Here's a link to a Coastal Flood Pane adjustable Map..

Adjuster Tab on upper right..Click HERE
Quoting DFWdad:


Thanks. Fun map, can adjust the see level rise. With this map, a 7 meter rise takes it to I-10.

That mapping app doesn't appear to be all that good with Louisiana's flat coastal marshes. A 7m (23ft) rise would virtually flood all of Slidell, most of the northshore Lake Pontchartrain suburbs, and threaten some New Orleans river levees. It shows very odd, noisy results at even 1-2m levels, which by themselves should flood numerous neighborhoods. Water would probably be nearing the interstate by 4-5m.
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Quoting pcola57:


Here's a link to a Coastal Flood Pane adjustable Map..

Adjuster Tab on upper right..Click HERE



7 meter rise here pretty much looks exactly like flooding from Ike's surge. A lot would go under that's for sure.
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From Local news in Corpus Christi:

SAN PATRICIO COUNTY -- A tornado touched down in a field northwest of Taft Monday afternoon, authorities said.
Police said the tornado touched down in an empty field near Highways 77 and 188 around 1:00 p.m.
There are conflicting reports on how long it lasted. Police said it
was only on the ground for about 20 seconds, but a viewer shot cell
phone video that appears to show the tornado on the ground for a few
minutes.
Police said while they have received several calls about the tornado, there are no reports of any damage or injuries.
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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue1 min
ECMWF 12z drops significant snow from Denver to Iowa to Minneapolis w/cut-off low. Reinforcing shot of Arctic air follows in 8-10 day range
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The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northeastern Refugio County in south Texas...

* until 315 PM CDT

* at 232 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists have
detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near
Quintana... or 13 miles south of McFaddin... moving southeast at 5
mph.

* Locations impacted include...
rural central Refugio County...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.


Lat... Lon 2844 9684 2830 9698 2831 9713 2838 9718
      2850 9711 2851 9701
time... Mot... loc 1932z 302deg 5kt 2838 9707
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Quoting luvtogolf:


Case in point. The climate models were wrong - by 80 years. I give that a grade of an "F". So they are no better at forecasting climate versus weather.


80 years in geological time is a mere flicker of the eye.

The important thing is that they predicted the Arctic sea ice was going to melt. Something that humans had never experienced and many still have trouble accepting.

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The Tropical Atlantic is almost steady around +0.5C with small fluctuations up and down.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Business Insider‏@businessinsider2 min
Extraordinary New Images Show How Far The Jersey Shore Has Come In The 6 Months Since Hurricane Sandy Link
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Quoting BobChecks:


We know that our weather models are fairly good for a few days forward, but limited to a few days.

We know our climate models have done a good job of predicting the type of change but have in some cases underestimated the amount.

Take, for example, Arctic sea ice melt. Early models predicted the first meltout about 100 years from now. As we made more observations and tuned the models we're now seeing our first melt event happening before 2020.



Case in point. The climate models were wrong - by 80 years. I give that a grade of an "F". So they are no better at forecasting climate versus weather.
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HAPPY BDAY VR..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Happy Birthday VR! I hope it's been a special day for you!
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184. VR46L
Thanks Ped ,AtHome and SouthernIllinois !!!


And adding thanks to FMG !!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6971
Quoting pcola57:


Here's a link to a Coastal Flood Pane adjustable Map..

Adjuster Tab on upper right..Click HERE



Thanks. Fun map, can adjust the see level rise. With this map, a 7 meter rise takes it to I-10.
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BOCA RATON — If you're worried about rising sea levels but you still want to live in Florida, Palm Beach County is a relatively safe place to own property, but probably not Pinellas County.

If oceans continue to rise in the coming decades, the areas most likely to be under water are Pinellas, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Lee counties, said scientists who gathered Thursday for Florida Atlantic University's Sea Level Rise Summit.

Palm Beach County benefits from elevations that are about 2 feet higher than those lower-lying areas, said Jayantha Obeysekera, director of modeling at the South Florida Water Management District.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


We need it! As even though some areas have seen 3" to 6" of rain so far this month we are still dry.



Agreed, just not all at once!!!
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180. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 4:00 AM EST a Tropical Low (1000 hpa) located at 13.7S 151.1E or 850 km east of Lockhart River and 660 km east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours.

A deepening tropical low over the northwest Coral Sea is expected to deepen further and track west northwest towards the far north Queensland coast.

STRONG GALES may develop about coastal areas between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation during Wednesday morning and extend further north to Thursday Island, and into the Gulf of Carpentaria north of Mapoon, later on Wednesday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop across parts of far northern Queensland late Tuesday and during Wednesday as the tropical low approaches the coast.

People between Mapoon to Thursday Island to Cape Tribulation should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Mapoon to Thursday Island to Cape Tribulation

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 13.8S 149.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.2S 146.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 11.6S 141.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 09.6S 140.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
The tropical low was located using infrared and microwave imagery. Moderate convection persists near the centre with increasing curvature over the last four to six hours. FT based on poorly defined DT of 2.5 [curved band of 0.4 on IR], MET and PAT give 2.5. Winds are likely strongest on the southern side in the east/southeast flow assisted by synoptic forcing and storm motion.

The broadscale environment is generally conducive for development, the vertical shear being low and reasonable upper level outflow. Slow development has been observed over the past 6 hours and there is the potential for further development overnight with the diurnal convective cycle so it may intensify into a tropical cyclone from late this morning. Gales remain most likely in the southern sector.

The low should continue moving to the west-northwest and accelerate somewhat under the influence of a developing mid-level ridge across Queensland and the central Coral Sea.
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By the year 2100, the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay could be two to five feet higher. A tidal gauge at the U.S. Coast Guard station at Bayboro Harbor has already documented a six-inch rise since the 1950s.

Read more: http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/story/21849517/2013/0 4/01/planning-for-rising-sea-levels#ixzz2RsjSKdvf
Follow us: @myfoxtampabay on Twitter | FOX13TampaBay on Facebook
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Well, Happy Birthday. Have one of those for me. 72.5 here Forecast 85F
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Speaking of New Orleans, have any of you seen a map of the area with just a relatively modest 1-meter rise? From Climate Central:

NOLA

In case you can't make that out, just that bit of rise places I-10 underwater, turns I-12 into a coast-hugging highway, and renders New Orleans utterly unlivable. Think about that: Even if there are no more Katrinas, New Orleans is very likely to become a ghost city well before the end of the century.

Laissez les bons temps rouler! :\


1 meter by 2020? Seems a bit much. Got link?

National Geographic, How High Will It Go?

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and likely will accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the amount is an inexact science. A recent study says we can expect the oceans to rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet (0.8 and 2 meters) by 2100,...

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Quoting DFWdad: Post# 161


Does that map imply a 1 meter rise by 2020? Have a link? That seems a bit much. The outlier estimates I've seen say 20' by 2100. But that is an extreme estimate, and most are less.


Here's a link to a Coastal Flood Pane adjustable Map..

Adjuster Tab on upper right..Click HERE

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Quoting luvtogolf:


So what you are saying is that our models are pretty poor (and they are) at forecasting our weather (short term) but are really good at forecasting climate (long term).


We know that our weather models are fairly good for a few days forward, but limited to a few days.

We know our climate models have done a good job of predicting the type of change but have in some cases underestimated the amount.

Take, for example, Arctic sea ice melt. Early models predicted the first meltout about 100 years from now. As we made more observations and tuned the models. We're now seeing our first melt event happening before 2020.

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Quoting VR46L:



Na NC ... I dont believe in the ignore button ... I would argue my corner but today is my Birthday and I dont feel like arguing... Will be having a Remi Martin or two shortly LOL


Happy Birthday! :)
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172. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


oh HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!..I'm buying!!! LOL!


Quoting pcola57:
Happy B'Day Vr46L..!!



Many Happy's to ya.. :)



AW thanks you Guys...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6971
Quoting ncstorm:


yep..Florida is the sweet spot right now..


We need it! As even though some areas have seen 3" to 6" of rain so far this month we are still dry.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but they are all converging on FL. Some totals of 10" to 20" can not be ruled out.

well IF those totals verify it wont be so bad if the rainfall is spread out from now thru sunday as the GFS predicts..we'll see..im hoping for at least 5 inches here..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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