Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

Share this Blog
44
+

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 269 - 219

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
Florida should be paying attention..that is one big area of low pressure covering the whole state



I saw that...that little low hangs around for a long time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Model(s) show a lot of rain for south Florida late in the week. Miami NWS doesn't think so...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WHILE THE OTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTH. SO WILL SHOW A GRADUAL LOWERING OF POPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS EACH DAY...DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING
INLAND EACH DAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Florida should be paying attention..that is one big area of low pressure covering the whole state

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208






Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208
SAN JUAN NWS :


MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST FRI AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A SHEARLINE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND FVRBL
RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE NORTH. SO WITH PRETTY
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS I EXPECT FRI TO
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS...USVI AND ERN THIRD OF PR.
SHEARLINE PUSHES INTO ST. CROIX SAT AND INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO MON WHEN IT WILL
START TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. 12Z ECWMF...OP GFS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) INDICATE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THUS
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SRN LEEWARD AND NRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS.
EVEN IF IT DOESNT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CLOUD COVER
LOOKS EXTENSIVE DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVR THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK.

What... not again no!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS is running..

99 hours


102


108
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Welcome Category 1 tropical cyclone Zayne, the ninth named storm of the Australian region cyclone season that typically runs from July 1 to June of the following year (in this case July 1, 2012 to June 1, 2013).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 47n91w:
The last six days have gone from looking like the middle of winter to an early spring day. From my webcam at work in far northern Wisconsin:





it happens very fast when it does
faster than most realize
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWdad:


1 meter by 2020? Seems a bit much. Got link?

National Geographic, How High Will It Go?

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and likely will accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the amount is an inexact science. A recent study says we can expect the oceans to rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet (0.8 and 2 meters) by 2100,...


The people will start moving before then. That means the practical consequences will kick in long before the sea level rises that far.

Sort of like the panic when people left Houston before Rita. That killed more people than the storm did.

Edit: The economic consequences of sea level rise will be especially interesting. A lot of valuable property will become worthless. Other prpoerty will soar in price. Can you spell mega-real estate bubble?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1h

Cut-off low will look like classic, massive comma shape in clouds by weekend. Daytime heating along "feeder bands" likely hail threat.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208
Quoting Gearsts:


If that pans out,many of the Eastern Caribbean islands would get a relief from the drought conditions they have been going thru in the past few months.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
The last six days have gone from looking like the middle of winter to an early spring day. From my webcam at work in far northern Wisconsin:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
216 yonzabam: Heracleion, which has been submerged under 150 feet of water off the coast of Egypt...
...No one has much of an idea how it came to be 150 feet under water.


Built by the Atlanteans after they evolved gills...
...though some archeologists insist it sank during the earthquakes recorded in historical accounts. Sounds like earthquake-induced liquifaction of its sandy base caused the buildings to sink as if into quicksand while much of the underlying sand itself spread into the harbor. Then the sea gradually washed the sand away over the centuries since then to recently re-expose some of its structures.

235 TropicalAnalystwx13: Best globe picture.
239 Grothar: Very funny, TA. Well here is a picture of my very first Globe!!!!!!! It is very old.

Ah yes, back in the good ol' days, when gravity still had the strength of youth...
Then came the BigBang. Never quite got over the hangover from that party
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Gearsts, sounds like a big rain event for PR this weekend. Let's see how it pans out. I can't believe that the NW corner will be spared from this.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JET STREAK WILL BE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY DRYER TREND THROUGH WED. AT LEAST
THAT IS WHAT IT IS INDICATED IN H7 RH FIELDS BUT EXPECT THAT
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL OVERCOME ANY MID LEVEL DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE TO GENERATE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. ALSO STEERING WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT I EXPECT A DECREASE IN CVRG FROM THE
PAST TWO DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST FRI AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A SHEARLINE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND FVRBL
RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE NORTH. SO WITH PRETTY
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS I EXPECT FRI TO
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS...USVI AND ERN THIRD OF PR.
SHEARLINE PUSHES INTO ST. CROIX SAT AND INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO MON WHEN IT WILL
START TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. 12Z ECWMF...OP GFS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) INDICATE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THUS
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SRN LEEWARD AND NRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EVEN IF IT DOESNT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CLOUD COVER
LOOKS EXTENSIVE DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVR THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED OVR THE CORDILLERA BUT WITH STEERING WINDS SO LIGHT
SHOWERS AREN`T LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH 10-FT BREAKERS NO LONGER BEING
GENERATED. SEAS HAVE DROPPED BETWEEN 5-6 FT AT BUOY 41053 SO ALL
SCA FOR NEARSHORE HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 40 40 40 40
STT 75 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 30
I really hope i get something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Explosion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
zerohedge‏@zerohedge8 min
BOSTON BOMB FOUND TO HAVE FEMALE DNA, WSJ SAYS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Despite a couple spring days now, it looks like winter might give (another) last gasp. From the afternoon discussion of the NWS office in Duluth:

THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG FGEN CONTINUES DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS/GEM WERE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA OF MAX PRECIP...RUNNING IT NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THE MN/WI BORDER THE
CUTOFF AREA. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FURTHER WEST...AND HAS
THE AXIS OF MAX QPF NORTH THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO THE
ARROWHEAD. SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SNOW WILL
BE A BIGGER THREAT AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT MORE SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY. WHAT IS STILL A BIG QUESTION THOUGH IS
THE LOCATION. THE FGEN FORCING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AND PWAT
VALUES CLIMB TO 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES.
WE WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED A
WINTER STORM WATCH IF THE MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT
JUST CAN`T PICK ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ironically, the meteorology building was struck today, fortunately they have plenty of lightning rods so it was grounded safely without causing any damage.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7958
Suprise comment from Landsea..... (at least to me)

Marine Weather Discussion


Excerpt:


AS MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...THE CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IS LOW IN THE SOLUTION PROVIDED...WHICH IS A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...GFS...AND ECMWF.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
215 LargoFl: I read somewhere today, they are expecting in MY area a 3-5 foot sea rise by 2020

Oookay, just who're the "they" you're referring to? 3to5centimetres in 7years sounds almost plausible; 3to5inches sounds almost possible if your coastline is also sinking like it is around NewOrleans.
3to5feet sounds like you misread 2120.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Grothar:



Very funny, TA. Well here is a picture of my very first Globe!!!!!!! It is very old.





Not as old as you, gramps!

;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Yes i dont know why that happens..the cells move towards here and just before they hit, they die out..been that way for a very long time now..oh well we'll see what happens this week..good chances for rain the next few days here.



Low level lapse rates are terrible! Double-inversion cap.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Best globe picture.




Very funny, TA. Well here is a picture of my very first Globe!!!!!!! It is very old.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting luvtogolf:


Yes, in geological time 80 years is a mere flicker if you are forecasting something out thousands to millions of years. We're talking forecasting just 100 years and according to you, missed by 80.

And by the way, I don't believe that the sea ice hasn't melted yet


No, prior to the "100 years from now" prediction the expectation was that the planet would undergo another ice age many thousand years from now and possibly another high temperature period many thousands of years past then.

80/many thousands = a very, very small number. A very tiny miss. Sort of like predicting an inch of rain and getting 1.00001 inches.

As for "not yet", you might want to look at what is happening 'up there'. Here's a graph of annual minimum ice volume.

PIOMAS 2012 480w photo PIOMAS2012480s.jpg
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Excerpt from Softpedia. (Full link to article below)


A new NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) investigation says that, this past year, sea surface temperatures in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem were so elevated that they managed to set a new record.

More precisely, specialists say that, when compared to sea surface temperatures recorded in these waters throughout the past 150 years, the ones reported in 2012 were the highest.

The raw numbers are as follows: in 2012, sea surface temperature for the Northeast Shelf Ecosystem reached a whopping 14 degrees Celsius (that's 57.2 degrees Fahrenheit).

During the past 30 years, sea surface temperatures in this part of the world never surpassed 12.4 degrees Celsius (54.3 degrees Fahrenheit).

Because of this, researchers fear that the Northwest Atlantic area is beginning to warm, meaning that spring and summer temperatures in these waters are getting increasingly elevated.

This phenomenon is bound to impact on the stratification of the water column, something which will in turn translate into a disturbance of the patterns according to which nutrients mix in aquatic environments.





Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
Best globe picture.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ESPI continues to crash=-1.77



This means El Nino will not make an appearance anytime soon.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
420 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

FLZ063-066-292100-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
420 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL GLADES
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY...FOR THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE
UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ORTONA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
ORTONA...
PALMDALE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
Quoting yonzabam:


So, what's the link between that and a satellite image of the NE Pacific?


None, just a casual reading article about EMP shared....

Big swirl over the Pacific....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


6 Months After Sandy: Many Recovered, Thousands Still Homeless
Monday, Apr 29, 2013 | Updated 3:21 PM EDT
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXC239-292245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0020.130429T1950Z-130429T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JACKSON TX-
250 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 3.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
EDNA AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED...OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND
ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING
WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
Gearsts, sounds like a big rain event for PR this weekend. Let's see how it pans out. I can't believe that the NW corner will be spared from this.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JET STREAK WILL BE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY DRYER TREND THROUGH WED. AT LEAST
THAT IS WHAT IT IS INDICATED IN H7 RH FIELDS BUT EXPECT THAT
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL OVERCOME ANY MID LEVEL DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE TO GENERATE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. ALSO STEERING WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT I EXPECT A DECREASE IN CVRG FROM THE
PAST TWO DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST FRI AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A SHEARLINE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND FVRBL
RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE NORTH. SO WITH PRETTY
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS I EXPECT FRI TO
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS...USVI AND ERN THIRD OF PR.
SHEARLINE PUSHES INTO ST. CROIX SAT AND INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO MON WHEN IT WILL
START TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. 12Z ECWMF...OP GFS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) INDICATE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THUS
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SRN LEEWARD AND NRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EVEN IF IT DOESNT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CLOUD COVER
LOOKS EXTENSIVE DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVR THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED OVR THE CORDILLERA BUT WITH STEERING WINDS SO LIGHT
SHOWERS AREN`T LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH 10-FT BREAKERS NO LONGER BEING
GENERATED. SEAS HAVE DROPPED BETWEEN 5-6 FT AT BUOY 41053 SO ALL
SCA FOR NEARSHORE HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 40 40 40 40
STT 75 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting sunlinepr:


Interesting???;

E-bomb – The real doomsday weapon
April 26, 2013 Rakesh Krishnan Simha
Electromagnetic pulse weapons that can paralyse a country in a nanosecond are already in the possession of several states. By 2015, North Korea is likely to acquire one. If you are not sweating, check your pulse....

"It’s like a powerful lightning bolt that surges into your house. The strength of the pulse – 30,000 to 50,000 volts per metre – is more than enough to burn your circuits and make your television set explode. Just like in the movies."

Link


So, what's the link between that and a satellite image of the NE Pacific?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 291915
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF HAS NOT
BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL IN HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES THE
PENINSULA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A REDUCED RAIN CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF TAMPA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-75.


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ON SCHEDULE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER LEE COUNTY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN TONIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE AT BEING RAIN
FREE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
INLAND AREAS FAVORED AS SEA BREEZES PUSH EAST AND STEERING FLOW
REMAINS FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE SITUATION GETS EVEN MORE COMPLICATED BY WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW DROPS INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL
SO EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY. IF CLOUDS DETER
HEATING...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE WE SEE A
RATHER LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE GULF THAT NEVER QUITE REACHES
THE PENINSULA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY SURFACE HEATING WOULD
EASILY IGNITE SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW PLAN TO TREAT THIS AS IF
WE HAVE ENOUGH HEATING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE MAIN DISCONTINUITIES REVOLVE AROUND THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WILL
UTILIZE A ROUGHLY 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR
FORECAST DETAILS. THIS RESULTS IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SEA-BREEZE IS MOVING INLAND PAST
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THESE SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WHILE THIS BOUNDARY IS IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER CHANCES MAY
BE FADING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDER THREAT. KLAL HAS BEST SHOT AT
A STORM WITH RESULTING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS
WILL RETURN TO LIGHT EASTERLY OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE BUT TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2 FEET OR LESS. THE ONLY HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY ARE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETTLES
OVER FLORIDA WHILE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE GULF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE HUMIDITY PROBLEMS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT WINDS ALONG A TROUGH AXIS COULD RESULT IN
RATHER POOR DISPERSIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 85 70 83 / 40 30 20 50
FMY 68 88 69 87 / 30 30 20 50
GIF 67 87 68 84 / 50 70 20 70
SRQ 67 85 68 84 / 20 30 20 50
BKV 61 86 64 83 / 40 30 20 50
SPG 72 85 71 82 / 30 30 20 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MROCZKA

Sounds like the same old same old is evolving again. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see much of the west side of Florida rain free or at least nothing significant. Meanwhile the east coast will probably have another good rain event.

Water temps have warmed quite a bit now so I'm not really sure the reason this keeps happening repeatedly despite new weather patterns with completely different systems...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7958
still got a Tornado warning in Texas folks..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585


Interesting???;

E-bomb - The real doomsday weapon
April 26, 2013 Rakesh Krishnan Simha
Electromagnetic pulse weapons that can paralyse a country in a nanosecond are already in the possession of several states. ....

"Its like a powerful lightning bolt that surges into your house. The strength of the pulse 30,000 to 50,000 volts per metre is more than enough to burn your circuits and make your television set explode. Just like in the movies."

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The general long-range pattern depicted by the GFS ensembles is for a ridge of high pressure across the Desert Southwest, extending into the Pacific Northwest, a ridge of high pressure across the Southeast States and eastern Gulf States, and a dip in the jet stream across the Northeast.

Tornado season remains closed for business through the middle portion of May.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 269 - 219

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
45 °F
Overcast