Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

Share this Blog
44
+

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 319 - 269

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index



Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167


Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Zane is looking pretty good.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Anyone listen to Knife Party? I have the leaked EP and I'm excited!!!

That is all

Back to the weather

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane on Saturn

Video Here...
Link

Yes, one of the outer bands has a hexagonal structure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Makes me excited to think we'll be getting beautiful developing tropical cyclones like this in a few months time. Perfect inflow on all quadrants with a nice CDO.


Very nice looking storm. :)



Surprising JTWC hasn't designated it yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I look at 'climate change' and what we should be doing about it this way.

What is the harm in creating a cleaner environment?

Maybe we can slow it down, maybe we can prevent it, maybe not... I don't see the harm in burning less fossile fuels, less pollution, and more efficient use of natural resources. But let's face it, as a whole we (humans) only react to something when imminent disaster is facing us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Makes me excited to think we'll be getting beautiful developing tropical cyclones like this in a few months time. Perfect inflow on all quadrants with a nice CDO.

Well, hopefully our storms will have perfect outflow in all quadrants and a nice CDO, unlike some of last season's storms. I can't wait, just a little over a month until the official start of the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWdad:
You know, all of these estimates of worst case scenarios in 2100 are not helping, IMHO, the cause to take action.

I can follow research of what is happening now. I read the linked articles here, by Dr. Masters and all.

Tell me what will happen in 5 years, 10 years, 15 years. That is what most people alive now are concerned about.


Unfortunately, that's why I don't really think the human race will have much longevity as a species unless we change how we think. Long term sustainability will be key to our survival, and right now we are doing a tremendously bad job. But I digress.

Predictions for 5 or 10 years out have way too much noise to be useful. One or two anomalous years and suddenly your prediction will be on the high or low side. Climate predictions require longer timescales by nature, as over short timescales weather adds way too much noise to get a decent climate signal.

When I hear about something that might happen 87 years from now, natural sensibilities tell me that is quite a stretch, and a lot of could change between now and then.


True, however climate change is a high probability event. For all we know an asteroid could slam into the planet tomorrow and kill everyone. But using something like that as an excuse not to do something about a current issue (such as climate change) doesn't make a lot of sense.

Short of major global events (of which all are low probability), the planet will continue to warm. Unless we take active countermeasures to the warming (which we lack the technology to do) and change the way we do things (which we lack the will to accomplish) then more warming is inevitable. Even if we stopped all CO2 production tomorrow we would still see warming temperatures for the next several decades.

I know why it is done, to extrapolate larger numbers, to be more attention getting.


Umm....no. The reason the projections are put out there is to WARN the world community in advance of what we can expect.

Also, the models do not "extrapolate". Climate models are simulations of the climate system. They are designed to replicate the physical processes of our climate, just like weather models are used the replicate physical processes involved in weather.

Climate projections show the state of the future climate system. This is based on physics, chemistry, math, etc. . Extrapolations are a statistical tool that may or may not have any relevance to reality.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Err...sorry.

The Australian region has a cyclone year, running from November 1 to April 30, and a cyclone season, running from July 1 to June 30 of that next year. Either way I got my post mixed up.

From the WMO TC Operation Plan.

They need to do a review of that plan.

Why make it confusing. They can just say The Australian Region has a Cyclone season running from November 1 til April 30. Tropical Cyclone formation outside of this time is possible but rare.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Gro- Can you slow it down please. That is way too fast for me...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Makes me excited to think we'll be getting beautiful developing tropical cyclones like this in a few months time. Perfect inflow on all quadrants with a nice CDO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:



huh???? Our season is November 1 to April 30. NOT July 1 to June 1. Where did you pull that information from? source please.

Err...sorry.

The Australian region has a cyclone year, running from November 1 to April 30, and a cyclone season, running from July 1 to June 30 of that next year. Either way I got my post mixed up.

From the WMO TC Operation Plan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

LOOP
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting DDR:
Good evening
Rain is refusing to let up here in Trinidad.River levels are dangerously high.


Not only Trinidad & Tobago is going thru ths rainy period but other islands in the Eastern Caribbean are going thru the same. Here is information from Martinique.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
For West Palm Beach...Nice weekend ahead...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
















Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
here is a global northern hemisphere compare 2012 2013 april sst ice coverage


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Welcome Category 1 tropical cyclone Zayne, the ninth named storm of the Australian region cyclone season that typically runs from July 1 to June of the following year (in this case July 1, 2012 to June 1, 2013).




huh???? Our season is November 1 to April 30. NOT July 1 to June 1. Where did you pull that information from? source please.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
299. DDR
Good evening
Rain is refusing to let up here in Trinidad.River levels are dangerously high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i use this sst map
compare temp change from mar 28 till april 28 2013

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Going Home. Have a good evening all...........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The main MDR in the mid-Atlantic notwithstanding as noted below by Tom Taylor, the regions closer to home in the Caribbean Basin are plenty warm at the moment per today's Navy SST chart:

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Is this fast enough?




no faster and faster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Does anyone know if the NWS/NHC still does the Orion hurricane hunter plane tours? Where they tour several cities along the east coast/ gulf of mexico?

I visited one of the stops several years ago, but haven't been able to find any information relevant to this year.


Don't know where to find the schedule but they still tour......They flew into Tallahassee Regional Airport last year for the local NWS Weatherfest. Unfortunately, that fly-in happened on a week-day/school day and I was unable to go or take the kids.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
As a follow up to the above post...

Some have wondered (myself included) why SST anomalies haven't really increased in the last week, despite below average tradewinds. It's hard to say definitively what the causes for this are but one thing which certainly didn't help was having enhanced precipitation and cloud cover in the western MDR




More cloud coverage will obviously limit heating from solar radiation and precipitation will also act to cool the top shallow layer of water. Furthermore, the zonal wind anomaly, although present in the tropics, was not expansive outside of the tropics (subtropics). Ideally, for a large basin-wide warm up of the MDR region, we would want a zonal wind anomaly like we saw in late March. During late March we had a large zonal wind anomaly extending across the entire subtropical Atlantic region (see above post). In the last week, this is what we've got instead



Yep,that high cloud plume from the Windwards to West Africa that has persisted for a few days has done that.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
Does anyone know if the NWS/NHC still does the Orion hurricane hunter plane tours? Where they tour several cities along the east coast/ gulf of mexico?

I visited one of the stops several years ago, but haven't been able to find any information relevant to this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As a follow up to the above post...

Some have wondered (myself included) why SST anomalies haven't really increased in the last week, despite below average tradewinds. It's hard to say definitively what the causes for this are but one thing which certainly didn't help was having enhanced precipitation and cloud cover in the western MDR




More cloud coverage will obviously limit heating from solar radiation and precipitation will also act to cool the top shallow layer of water. Furthermore, the zonal wind anomaly, although present in the tropics, was not expansive outside of the tropics (subtropics). Ideally, for a large basin-wide warm up of the MDR region, we would want a zonal wind anomaly like we saw in late March. During late March we had a large zonal wind anomaly extending across the entire subtropical Atlantic region (see above post). In the last week, this is what we've got instead




As a result, SST anomalies in the western MDR (60-40W 10-20N) actually cooled. SST anomalies in the eastern half of the MDR (40-20W 10-20N) haven't really changed much. This region was anomalously warm already, however, so we shouldn't expect much additional warming given slower tradewinds.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interestingly, when we saw the large warm up in SSTs in late March as seen here




The zonal wind anomaly in the MDR itself was actually nonexistent. The real trade wind anomaly was occurring outside of the tropics.





It appears that below average tradewinds in the tropics are helpful but lowering the tradewinds just outside of the tropical region has the most significant effect on SST anomalies within the tropics. This makes sense since when we realize that tradewinds themselves originate just outside of the tropics. These winds then drive ocean currents which help push cooler subtropical waters toward the tropics (no different than temperature advection in the atmosphere). With this in mind, it makes sense that the tradewinds along the waters along and just outside the boundary of the tropics are most influential to SSTs within the tropics. Once inside the tropics, waters are already warm so slowing down the tradewinds really only reduces the evaporative cooling effect. The cooler SST advection isn't really an issue since SSTs within the tropics are pretty uniform.


Tradewind Climo for March-April. Notice where tradewinds originate -- outside of the tropical latitudes.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Much Better, as scary as the other one. Good Day, Sensei...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:


You need to find shorter videos... lol Thanks for posting that. Everyone should be motivated(sic) to watch that...


Is this fast enough?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Landsea said it is possible and I accept that it is too, but it certainly isn't showing it on the 18Z GFS.


thanks for answering my questions :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


Thanks but Landsea said...

Landsea said it is possible and I accept that it is too, but it certainly isn't showing it on the 18Z GFS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's a result of the big cutoff that will form later this week on this run. There is some upper divergence on the east side of it, causing surface pressure falls. With such cold air aloft (shown with the thickness contours), it's not even remotely close to going subtropical this model run.


Thanks but Landsea said...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


You need to find shorter videos... lol Thanks for posting that. Everyone should be motivated(sic) to watch that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
However the situation unfolds in terms of that low near Florida downstream, the ridging to the North as noted on the charts below is not going to let it move away from those parts anytime soon; a real wet week coming up for parts of the Gulf and SE.

Here is a portion of the PM Tallahassee NWS discussion:

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Weak flow will be in place aloft on Tuesday as a shortwave exits the forecast area to the east. The weak ridging aloft and subsidence behind the shortwave is expected to limit rain chances
to slight or low chance categories. With additional sunshine,temperatures should be able to warm into the middle 80s on Tuesday.

By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak upper low is forecast to move into Louisiana, pushing deep moisture into the northeastern Gulf Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure is forecast to build down the eastern seaboard. The interaction between the deep moisture, upper low, and leading edge of surface ridge should provide plenty of lift for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. With this in mind, have raised PoPs to high chance or likely for the region on Wednesday. The increased cloud cover and expected rain should keep temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
The extended period will be dominated by an omega block over the eastern CONUS, with the ridge parked over the northeastern states and upper low in place over the plains and western Atlantic. This will leave the tri-state area in a relatively disturbed region south of the col of the block. Expect to see several disturbance undercut the ridge from Thursday through the weekend, keeping rain chances elevated. The timing of the individual systems is varies from run to run and model to model, so will go with a broad brush approach to PoPs for the extended. With the expected rain and associated cloud cover, temperatures should be near or a bit below normal through the period.

&&

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


1900, what does that mean? LOL..

It's a result of the big cutoff that will form later this week on this run. There is some upper divergence on the east side of it, causing surface pressure falls. With such cold air aloft (shown with the thickness contours), it's not even remotely close to going subtropical this model run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Unstacked surface reflection of the Bowling Ball of Misery.



1900, what does that mean? LOL..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
for the experts out there..whats with the huge low pressures on the 18z GFS?


Slightly offset surface reflection of the Bowling Ball of Misery.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

I think that answers NC's question pretty much.


We back in business...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Suprise comment from Landsea..... (at least to me)

Marine Weather Discussion


Excerpt:


AS MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...THE CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IS LOW IN THE SOLUTION PROVIDED...WHICH IS A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...GFS...AND ECMWF.

I think that answers NC's question pretty much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
189 hours through 204 hours.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS TOTAL PRECIP OUT TO HR 144

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
for the experts out there..whats with the huge low pressures on the 18z GFS?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Feels like an El Nino year for the SE with all of the recent rain this Spring and like a La Nina Spring for the Midwest in spite of Enso Neutral conditions.

From Wiki:

Across Alaska, La Niña events lead to drier than normal conditions, while El Niño events do not have a correlation towards dry or wet conditions. During El Niño events, increased precipitation is expected in California due to a more southerly, zonal, storm track.[4] During La Niña, increased precipitation is diverted into the Pacific Northwest due to a more northerly storm track.[5] During La Niña events, the storm track shifts far enough northward to bring wetter than normal winter conditions (in the form of increased snowfall) to the Midwestern states, as well as hot and dry summers.[6] During the El Niño portion of ENSO, increased precipitation falls along the Gulf coast and Southeast due to a stronger than normal, and more southerly, polar jet stream.[7] In the late winter and spring during El Niño events, drier than average conditions can be expected in Hawaii.[

Kinks in the jet stream can throw a big monkey wrench in things from time to time......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So what's the latest with the developing surface low off Florida that models keep pointing out? If someone can summarize that would be amazing! I love reading these posts! I learn so much about weather on here :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL..Florida is doomed..anyone that suffers from migraines..oh boy..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
Florida should be paying attention..that is one big area of low pressure covering the whole state



Could be a slight tornado risk down in the sunshine state. There should also be a decent hail risk the farther north you go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If that pans out,many of the Eastern Caribbean islands would get a relief from the drought conditions they have been going thru in the past few months.


I'm praying for a nice rain event in the NE Caribbean Islands... We didn't have significant rainfalls since TS Rafael in october 2012! The drought began right after in mid october! 6 months... we need a relief!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 319 - 269

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
78 °F
Partly Cloudy