Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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ATCF is testing the GOM area
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13995
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ034-055-075-011445-
/O.NEW.KKEY.MA.W.0053.130501T1344Z-130501T1445Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT...
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT


* AT 941 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS FROM
42 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF TORTUGAS ECOLOGICAL RESERVE NORTH TO 29
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TORTUGAS ECOLOGICAL RESERVE SOUTH...MOVING
EAST AT 25 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

DRY TORTUGAS...
PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT...
REBECCA SHOAL LIGHT...
HALFMOON SHOAL LIGHT...

PREPARE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS
...STEEP AND
FAST-BUILDING SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BLINDING
DOWNPOURS. STAY LOW OR GO BELOW...AND MAKE SURE ALL ON BOARD ARE
WEARING LIFE JACKETS.

INTENSE AND CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER...STAY LOW OR GO BELOW.

LAT...LON 2458 8328 2495 8318 2502 8313 2502 8250
2358 8246 2361 8291 2366 8310 2375 8320
2381 8323 2412 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 272DEG 24KT 2541 8302 2515 8294
2480 8292 2461 8292 2423 8307 2397 8325
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1216. hydrus
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1214. VR46L
GulfOfMexico-cloudtops/goes

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
From the Twin Cities NWS:

It is looking more likely that tonight into Thursday morning will feature not just a rare, but potentially unprecedented May snowfall event across parts of the area, with a swath of 6+ inches of snow expected to fall from south central Minnesota into east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The deep and cold upper low bringing us the rain today and snow tonight will be slow to move out of the region, with clouds, cool temperatures, and periods of rain expected to remain across the area through the weekend. The good news, by the start of next week, temperatures look to warm back up closer to their early May normals of the mid to upper 60s.



TWC has named that snow storm. Winter Storm Achilles
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Massive is not the word, lol.

INCOMING......

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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well considering the fact that looking at both years up through April we have ~37900 record warm temps and ~15800 record cold temps (a 2.4 to 1.0 ratio), it actually doesn't look like it. The 2.5 to 1.0 ratio is actually pretty close to the ratio we've seen over the last decade or so... "balanced" wouldn't be a term to describe the warm vs. cold records as of late.

I think he's referencing the much closer balance of record highs vs record lows this year across the CONUS, as they are much closer in number to each other as opposed to last year's large disparity.

*EDIT: nope, nevermind...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
VR46, thanks for that animation #1148.
You can really see one of the cloud seeds due west of Tampa and south of Apalachicola.
They really kick up impressive amounts of condensation.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
From the Twin Cities NWS:It is looking more likely that tonight into Thursday morning will feature not just a rare, but potentially unprecedented May snowfall event across parts of the area, with a swath of 6 inches of snow expected to fall from south central Minnesota into east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
That's definitely interesting. I know many people are unhappy when meteorologists or climatologists use the word "unprecedented" because of what that word means, but, well, if the shoe fits...
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
It depends on which location they are referring to. ;-)
No, I'm pretty sure "balanced" means the same thing in every location. But I'll check my dictionary to be certain... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FXUS62 KMFL 011343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.UPDATE...
MASSIVE CLOUD FIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GOFMEX ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROTATING BENEATH CUT-OFF LOW WHICH
IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PRODUCING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING WITH NEARLY 800
STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES.
THE CONVECTIVE FIELD IS MOVING
EAST BUT THE QUESTION IS IF IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE REACHING
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND HOW MUCH EFFECT THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD
WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE MAINLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
HEATING WILL BE HELD OFF ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS
TO OCCUR. THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST BUT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MAINLAND AS SOME HEATING TAKES PLACE WITH MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A STORM MOTION TO
THE EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. ALL OF THIS SAID, CURRENT THINKING IS
TO ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXTEND HIGHER POPS BACK TO THE WEST COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
APPROACHING CONVECTION.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well considering the fact that looking at both years up through April we have ~37900 record warm temps and ~15800 record cold temps (a 2.4 to 1.0 ratio), it actually doesn't look like it. The 2.5 to 1.0 ratio is actually pretty close to the ratio we've seen over the last decade or so... "balanced" wouldn't be a term to describe the warm vs. cold records as of late.
Some people use an odd definition of the term "balanced", don't they? ;-)

Speaking of temperatures, cold as parts of the US were during April--and it was indeed a cool month for much of the nation--April nonetheless had 34% more warm temperature records than did March. It'll be interesting to see what the rest of the year holds...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
If this was say middle of July and this feature was in the GOM. This place would be gong hella crazy.


You got that right Aussie! I think it will stay a surface low for now. Shear is not as high as yesterday but still, it's only May 1st... thankfully
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ034-055-075-011445-
/O.NEW.KKEY.MA.W.0053.130501T1344Z-130501T1445Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT...
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT

* AT 941 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS FROM
42 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF TORTUGAS ECOLOGICAL RESERVE NORTH TO 29
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TORTUGAS ECOLOGICAL RESERVE SOUTH...MOVING
EAST AT 25 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

DRY TORTUGAS...
PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT...
REBECCA SHOAL LIGHT...
HALFMOON SHOAL LIGHT...

PREPARE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...STEEP AND
FAST-BUILDING SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BLINDING
DOWNPOURS. STAY LOW OR GO BELOW...AND MAKE SURE ALL ON BOARD ARE
WEARING LIFE JACKETS.

INTENSE AND CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER...STAY LOW OR GO BELOW.


Nice loop
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1201. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
1199. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:



Hey now thats what I call unique imagery !!

Very Cool!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
1196. LargoFl
nice blob headed towards Pinellas ..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Heading straight across the Dry Tortugas. May have to change the name for the day.

Florida is the coolest state!
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If this was say middle of July and this feature was in the GOM. This place would be gong hella crazy.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's moving NE at 10mph. That low seems to moving toward Fort Myers or Sarasota.


Very overcast here in Fort Myers right now. Yesterday's rain total in my rain guage .61"
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1192. hydrus
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Heading straight across the Dry Tortugas. May have to change the name for the day.

Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
@wxbrad What's the feature moving east towards Florida in the GOM.


Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 4m
@gsdavo1975 thats a little vort max that has turned into a small surface low.

Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975 3m
@wxbrad If this was in 2 months time, could it form into a cyclone?

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 2m
@gsdavo1975 it sure could be. Early in the season we do get some to form this way, old thunderstorm complexes sitting over warm water.

Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975 33s
@wxbrad Thanks for the explanation, Have a great day.
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1188. hydrus
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 01, 2013 - 12:45 UTCGOES Imager Spectral Difference
May 01, 2013 - 12:45 UTC
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Geesh.

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West central Florida will get plenty of action throughout the day, I am totally confident. If you live in hillsborough/Pinellas south, you should experience a few hours of moderate rainfall with our main blob. If you live north of there, then the light east wind we are experiencing will encourage a sea breeze collision and boundary chaos in the afternoon with heavy thunderstorms. A widespread 2-3 inches seems reasonable to me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting luvtogolf:
What a difference a year makes here in NA.

Year to date through April:

Hi Max Hi Min Low Max Low Min
2013 4,030 5,596 7,723 5,313
2012 15,538 12,775 1,669 1,082
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Balancing out nicely.


Well considering the fact that looking at both years up through April we have ~37900 record warm temps and ~15800 record cold temps (a 2.4 to 1.0 ratio), it actually doesn't look like it. The 2.5 to 1.0 ratio is actually pretty close to the ratio we've seen over the last decade or so... "balanced" wouldn't be a term to describe the warm vs. cold records as of late.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3167
1183. hydrus
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Key West radar showing 38,000" cloud tops and 100% chance of 1" hail. You don't see that every day!!!

That does look interesting.
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Key West radar showing 38,000" cloud tops and 100% chance of 1" hail. You don't see that every day!!!

Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do you see that!!
mid level
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!:)


I do love your enthusiasm :)
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!:)


It's moving NE at 10mph. That low seems to moving toward Fort Myers or Sarasota.
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!!!!!!!!:)
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Do you see that!!
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Here it comes Tampa!



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The NE Caribbean islands will get a big rain event in the next few days.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13995
1173. bappit
Quoting indianrivguy:


Lolita came out that year..... or was it Ursala in Dr. No?

Watched Dr. No on a channel with Chinese subtitles. Odd experience mainly because the movie was so bad.
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1172. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
What a difference a year makes here in NA.

Year to date through April:

Hi Max Hi Min Low Max Low Min
2013 4,030 5,596 7,723 5,313
2012 15,538 12,775 1,669 1,082
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 934
Quoting Grothar:


I've been looking at that for a few days. Even VRL saw it a few days ago. It is very low, but not unusual to see these form. The rainy season is beginning on the African continent and these form all the time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I do believe we will have an early TC formation around the 15th to 17th of May this year. But I would look closer to home.

Even the blob next to Florida doesn't have me too excited. It is very common to see these features in that area. As a matter of fact, I haven't been excited since 1962, but that's another story.





Lolita came out that year..... or was it Ursala in Dr. No?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.