Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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I hope this verifies,we really need this rain....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting LargoFl:
This is Wonderful,everything is soaking wet!!!..


Looks like a hook echo just east of the Bay.

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This is Wonderful,everything is soaking wet!!!..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Here in Spring Hill, about 50 miles N. of Tampa, my rain gauge display is still showing 0.00 inches of rain. This is getting a little rediculous. LOL
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GFS is showing our first named STS of the season in the eastern Gulf. I'm surprised nobody has noticed this.




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Tampa has been getting dumped on this morning.

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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

I want some of that rain!!!


Lots of lightning came with that as well. Which C FL is the lightning capital of North America.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
2" of rain in Tampa last night.

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What a storm last evening here on the NW side of Orlando. I picked up just over 2" of rain, winds of atleast 50mph and dime size hail. That brings my total for April to 8" and it's raining good right now.

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Quoting Davesmind:
Hurricane on Saturn

Video Here...
Link

Yes, one of the outer bands has a hexagonal structure.


Hey Dave.. glad you decided to join us!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
Everyone have a great Tuesday! Aussie, have a great Wednesday!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nor did I and no we don't have a military we share it with the British and for fast response the US military jumps in till the British come however quite a few Caymanians serve in both UK and US military some in the Jamaican Defense force however we do have the Police Task Force which is like SWAT but less of the T in SWAT which somewhat does the "its just for situations where police need extra personnel during some crazy event"
Yay for America helping! :p Well im glad everybody is ok down there. One of these days i'd really like to go to the Cayman Islands
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Quoting trunkmonkey:


With the cold weather staying until now, many of our trees still don't have foliage, I'm kinda old, and I never remember the trees not having foliage at the first of May!

Interesting what you say there.
WE in southern Europe had a lot of wet cold weather all winter until about 2 weeks ago when it felt like spring and the temps got up to about 28/C or around 80s/F.
This weekend we got a massive low came up of Africa and the temps have dropped to well below freezing in many areas. (I am at 36 degrees north.) This brought a lot of dust storms to the Barcelona areas called "calimars here, plus over 8 inches of rain in the Valencia region in one day. "The low must be pulling the cold air to us from the alps and the Pyrenees
We had blizzards yesterday in the north of Spain and on the Mediterranean coastal mountains to the south of me where there is quite a lot of snow cover.
At this time of year it should be at least very warm all the time here.
With all this cold weather and snow, its bound to have an effect on the spring processes as here in about 2 weeks around the third week in May normally most of the vegetation dies off due to the heat. At the moment the place looks like the Emerald Ireland not the semi desert of southern Iberia.
Needless to say a spin off of this cold is its bad effect on the vital tourist industry.
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399. MahFL
I got 0.4 inches of rain yesterday in NE Florida.
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 61 degrees this morning, with a high later of around 83. There's rain to the south and I'm debating if I need to water the flowers or wait for it, but it looks like it could possibly go just west of me and leave my flowers high and dry. I need my coffee before I make decisions...

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Steak and eggs, blueberry muffins, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.


The big rain event for PR and adjacent islands is still in the forecast to begin from Friday and extending thru next mid-week. Is still uncertain how much rain will fall but the rain that has fallen in the past few days has saturated the grounds and if the anticipated event unfolds,then flash flooding is probable.So stay tuned for more information as time goes by.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST TUE APR 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA BUT WINDS OVER SAN JUAN AND PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 KNOTS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY IN WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DROP DOWN TO 35 NORTH 55
WEST BY MONDAY BEFORE PULLING OUT AGAIN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FADE
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ON THURSDAY
THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MULTI-CENTERED LOW WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF IT WILL JOIN WITH A
WEAKER LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUCH THAT THE LOCAL AREA
IS AFFECTED BY THIS TROUGHING THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
LOW WILL FORM JUST EAST OF GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LOW. GOOD
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN AND AFFECTS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL PULL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT DRIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT RETURNS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC HAVE MOVED INLAND
OVER PUERTO RICO AND HAVE DAMPENED THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTS...HOWEVER MUCH LESS RAIN FELL THIS MORNING THAN DURING
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK BRINGING HEAVY AND PERSISTENT
RAIN TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT MOVES
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY IN THE WEEK IT RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CONTINUES A TREND OF BOTH AN EASTERLY SHIFT AND
POSTPONEMENT OF THE WETTEST CONDITIONS. THE 30/00Z GFS RUN SHOWS A
PEAK IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON FRIDAY AND ON SUNDAY WITH A DIP
ON MONDAY AND A NEW BETTER SURGE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS TO REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY. MODEL GENERATED SOUNDINGS OVER THE AREA SHOW NOT QUITE AS
MUCH MOISTURE AS IN THE PREVIOUS SOUNDINGS...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINS FOR FLOODING TO REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
BECAUSE OF THE EAST WARD SHIFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...IT IS
LIKELY THAT PUERTO RICO WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS OVERALL RAIN THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED SINCE THE PLUME RESIDES OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LONGER THAN BEFORE...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOW A
SHIFT OUT OF THE EASTERLIES TOWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS NOT ONLY BRINGS MOISTURE UP FROM THE ITCZ BUT
CONTRIBUTES TO SOME OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN A GENERALLY LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THAT WE MUST CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT HEAVY RAINS
WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND AND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK OR TO
PREPARE FOR SUCH AN EVENTUALITY...RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR FLOOD OPERATIONAL PLANS
AND MAKE SURE THAT NECESSARY RESOURCES WILL BE AVAILABLE IF
NEEDED. IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS IS INEVITABLE AND SOILS ARE BEGINNING TO
SATURATE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT TO DOMINATE. ISOLD SHRA MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. NRMS SHRA/SCT TSTM MAIN LY INLAND BY AFT WITH OCNL IFR/MVFR/
OBSCG MTNS. HIGH CHC OF SHRA/TSTM AT TJMZ...WL PROB UPDATE THERE FOR
AFT ACTIVITY. LLVL WIND E 5-15 KT BLO FL080 BCMG W AND INCR SPD ABV.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE ALMOST 7 FEET AT BUOY 41043 AND HAD DROPPED
UNDER 6 FEET AT THE SAN JUAN BUOY 41053. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE UNTIL SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED
AT 9 AM AST PROVIDING SEAS REMAIN AT OR BELOW CURRENT LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 75 / 30 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 76 / 40 20 20 10
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Quoting 47n91w:
The last six days have gone from looking like the middle of winter to an early spring day. From my webcam at work in far northern Wisconsin:





With the cold weather staying until now, many of our trees still don't have foliage, I'm kinda old, and I never remember the trees not having foliage at the first of May!
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1.5 inches..... Storms redeveloping upstream!
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.NOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY FROM TAMPA TO CAPE CANAVERAL THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARDS. IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS LINE...A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR
TAMPA WILL ALSO REACH INTO FAR WESTERN OSCEOLA...ORANGE...AND LAKE
COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY CAN PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN.

ELSEWHERE...OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING LINE OF STRONG STORMS OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEYOND 20 NM WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. ANY ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOCUSED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR URBAN FLOODING AT
ISOLATED LOCALES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT IS LOW.

LIGHTNING WILL BE A RISK EACH DAY AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
SET UP AND TRAIN OVER ANY GIVEN LOCALE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
These storms are only halfway past me and I've already recorded an inch of rain in half an hour! Keep it coming!
good morning yes..some great rain here this morning.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
These storms are only halfway past me and I've already recorded an inch of rain in half an hour! Keep it coming!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Good Morning Folks and its RAINING!!!!!!!!!! lol..finally..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TAMPA


* UNTIL 545 AM EDT

* AT 352 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting Civicane49:
31 days left until the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.


And another 40 days after that until the average date of the first named storm.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I think all of this is sparking now along all outflow boundaries left over by yesterday's sea breezes. This part of the atmo never got the chance to be worked over in the afternoon.
There's a frontal boundary there, and low pressure is setting up over florida for most of this week. It's gonna be a wet week. Not that I mind.
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Quoting Forsaken:
I think Largo is getting some surprise storms this morning.
I think all of this is sparking now along all outflow boundaries left over by yesterday's sea breezes. This part of the atmo never got the chance to be worked over in the afternoon.
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Frequent lightning with the storms moving through the Bay Area. This is the first heavy thunderstorm for me of 2013!
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I think Largo is getting some surprise storms this morning.
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Cyclone Zane:

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TC Zane's eye now on Radar....


Loop
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M5.6 - 40km NW of Codrington, Barbuda
2013-04-30 06:56:49 UTC
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376. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZANE, CATEGORY TWO (18U)
4:52 PM EST April 30 2013
===========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Zane (989 hpa) located at 14.0S 149.5E or 680 km east southeast of Lockhart River and 485 km east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center in northern quadrants
30 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center in northern quadrants
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZANE, CATEGORY 2, with wind gusts up to 70 knots is expected to develop a west northwest track tonight and cross the far northern Queensland coast between Orford Ness and Lockhart River late Wednesday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds of up to 80 knots may develop between Cape Grenville and Cape Sidmouth late Wednesday. GALES are expected to develop about coastal areas between Orford Ness and Cape Tribulation during Wednesday and may extend further north and west to the Torres Strait Islands and the western side of Cape York, north of Mapoon, later on Wednesday.

Coastal residents between Cape Grenville and Cape Sidmouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop across parts of far northern Queensland later today and during Wednesday as the system approaches the coast.

People between Orford Ness and Cape Tribulation should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Orford Ness to Cape Tribulation

Tropical Cyclone Watch
========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Mapoon to Orford Ness, including the Torres Strait Islands

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 13.9S 147.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.1S 145.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 11.0S 139.5E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 09.0S 134.0E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 1.0 degree wrap on a log10 spiral, giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT suggest 3.5 and 4.0 respectively. FT based on DT as it appears clear.

A significant amount of development has occurred over the last 6 hours with a tight curved band signature now evident on the satellite imagery. The 2222 UTC SSMI microwave image indicated an area of well organized convection near the system center prior to this quite rapid intensification. Confidence in the location of the centre is good based on radar imagery from Willis Island and it appears that the system is a midget with quite a small radius of maximum winds. Winds are likely to be strongest on the southern side of the system in the east/southeast flow assisted by synoptic forcing and storm motion.

The broadscale environment is generally conducive for further development with the vertical shear being low and with reasonable upper level outflow. Tropical Cyclone Zane is expected to intensify into a category 3 system tonight. The intensity of the system closer to landfall will be heavily dependent upon any increased wind shear that may develop with the next upper trough moving across central Australia during Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Zane should continue moving to the west northwest and accelerate somewhat under the influence of a developing mid-level ridge across Queensland and the central Coral Sea.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 APR 2013 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 13:56:20 S Lon : 148:58:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 999.4mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -73.2C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.0 degrees

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00 gfs total precip accum out to hr 144

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267
Quoting Grothar:
rains a coming
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267
Quoting Civicane49:
31 days left until the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

yeah but I say we starting early in may around the 15th or so
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31 days left until the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.