Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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blob alert below cuba lol............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
Quoting Grothar:


I don't throw Grocon around easily. However, last night I did say write that pressure would be falling around Florida and a high pressure would probably building to the North. Blobs usually like that. I also wrote back in January that it would be an early season. I do expect to see a strong system by mid-May.

One interesting observation I saw in the Crownweather map was that the "Southwest coast" of Florida seemed to have a higher strike probability than the east coast. Something with which I agree. It would appear that systems this year will be lower altitudes.



I love this map being from Fort Myers (West coast S. of Tampa) its been nearly 5 long years since Fay.
Edited: Gro, have you had your oatmeal today? SWFL "altitude" is 4 feet AMSL :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


They're calling for a 90-95% chance of Florida being hit by a tropical cyclone at some point. Pretty bold prediction.


I don't normally don't pay much attention to those, but this year looks like a very strange and active year. I may have to adjust my Grocon scale.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26486
Quoting Grothar:


You sound like Krushchev.


I was trying to sound like Gromyko. Don't make me take my shoes off!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11274
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gee even into sunday and here comes that strong cold front..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
might be a few strong storms by me saturday...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
this is great all the way thru friday.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
Quoting Grothar: Post# 506


I don't throw Grocon around easily. However, last night I did say write that pressure would be falling around Florida and a high pressure would probably building to the North. Blobs usually like that. I also wrote back in January that it would be an early season. I do expect to see a strong system by mid-May.

One interesting observation I saw in the Crownweather map was that the "Southwest coast" of Florida seemed to have a higher strike probability than the east coast. Something with which I agree. It would appear that systems this year will be lower altitudes.



(gulp)
I'm in the very high quadrant.. :(
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Quoting Grothar:


I don't throw Grocon around easily. However, last night I did say write that pressure would be falling around Florida and a high pressure would probably building to the North. Blobs usually like that. I also wrote back in January that it would be an early season. I do expect to see a strong system by mid-May.

One interesting observation I saw in the Crownweather map was that the "Southwest coast" of Florida seemed to have a higher strike probability than the east coast. Something with which I agree. It would appear that systems this year will be lower altitudes.



They're calling for a 90-95% chance of Florida being hit by a tropical cyclone at some point. Pretty bold prediction.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I posted it first! :)


You sound like Krushchev.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26486

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 AM...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. DRIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME
STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
484. Grothar 9:18 AM EDT on April 30, 2013

Still waiting on Your Grocon factor for this blob; or does your scale go into effect on June 1st?......:)


I don't throw Grocon around easily. However, last night I did say write that pressure would be falling around Florida and a high pressure would probably building to the North. Blobs usually like that. I also wrote back in January that it would be an early season. I do expect to see a strong system by mid-May.

One interesting observation I saw in the Crownweather map was that the "Southwest coast" of Florida seemed to have a higher strike probability than the east coast. Something with which I agree. It would appear that systems this year will be lower latitudes.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26486
That Low in the gulf, is that the low thats supposed to cross over florida thursday?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
I know I said that 2012 and 2011 were my closet analog picks for 2013 in my video updates- but looking at the SST anomalies, TCHP, ENSO, vertical instability, and the PDO signatures, I think that 2007, 2004, and 2012 are the closet recent hurricane seasons that may compare to 2013 with 2007 being the closet and 2012 being similar in vertical instability (or lack of).
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes sirrree Bob. LOL


Aussie, don't mock me publicly please... lol
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501. MahFL
Quoting Jedkins01:


LOL I'm with you on that, I was up light studying for final exams and I have a pretty bad flu, went to bed around 1:30 and woke up at 7, I have my first final at 10:00 so I'll have to drive to school soon.


If you really have flu, you won't be doing any studying, beleive me. I was in bed 24 hours with the flu, did not and could not even get out of bed.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Closer to current than 2005 is.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Significant differences: Warmer anomalies across the equatorial pacific in 2005, far cooler Gulf of Guinea and cooler anomalies off the East Coast in 2005.


The Gulf of Guinea warm as is occurring now means more south in latitude ITCZ than normal.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
499. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Zane (983 hpa) located at 14.1S 148.8E or 610 km east southeast of Lockhart River and 410 km east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center in northern quadrants
40 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center in northern quadrants
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZANE, CATEGORY 2, with wind gusts up to 85 knots is moving towards the west and is expected to develop a west-northwest track tonight and cross the far northern Queensland coast between Orford Ness and Cape Melville on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 85 knots may develop between Cape Grenville and Cape Melville late Wednesday. GALES are expected to develop about coastal areas between Orford Ness and Cape Tribulation during Wednesday morning and may extend further north and west to Cape York and the western side of Cape York Peninsula north of Mapoon, overnight Wednesday or early Thursday.

Coastal residents between Cape Grenville and Cape Melville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop across parts of far northern Queensland north of Cape Tribulation tonight and during Wednesday as the system approaches the coast.

People between Orford Ness and Cape Tribulation should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Orford Ness to Cape Tribulation

Tropical Cyclone Watch
========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Mapoon to Orford Ness, including the Torres Strait Islands

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 13.6S 146.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.8S 144.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 10.4S 138.3E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 08.6S 132.7E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
The system has maintained intensity over the last 3 hours. A curved band pattern was used with a 0.9 degree wrap, giving DT=4.0. FT based on DT. PAT agrees.

Confidence in the location of the center is good based on radar imagery from Willis Island and it appears that the system is a midget with quite a small radius of maximum winds. Winds are likely to be strongest on the southern side of the system in the east/souteast flow assisted by synoptic forcing and storm motion.

The broadscale environment is generally conducive for further development with the vertical shear being low and with reasonable upper level outflow. Tropical Cyclone Zane is expected to intensify into a category 3 system during the early hours of Wednesday morning. The intensity of the system closer to landfall will be heavily dependent upon any increased wind shear that may develop with the next upper trough moving across central Australia during Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Zane has started turning over the last hour and is currently moving towards the west. The system should adopt a west northwest track over the next few hours and accelerate somewhat under the influence of a developing mid-level ridge across Queensland and the central Coral Sea.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I saw it as 40 mph storm before i went to sleep...now it's near "hurricane" intensity.

Yes sirrree Bob. LOL
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so therefore i go back to my math........see you guys later.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Looks to be pointing a finger at FL. LOL


Speaking of pointing fingers..........
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26486
Quoting Grothar:
Typical comma shape. :)



It's doing well. Once it acquires the "blob" shape it might try and give a Grothar a heart attack due to beauty of the system. :O
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Closer to current than 2005 is.


lol at your avatar.
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well my next door neighbor's rain gauge has just a touch over 2 inches, so we got some great rains here overnight..its sunny but sprinkling a lil raindrops..must be alot of moisture up above still...some roads and streets are closed in tampa proper..due to flooding, over there they got close to 3 inches...we really needed this rain.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
484. Grothar 9:18 AM EDT on April 30, 2013

Still waiting on Your Grocon factor for this blob; or does your scale go into effect on June 1st?......:)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9231
Quoting Grothar:
Typical comma shape. :)



I posted it first! :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11274
Quoting AussieStorm:
TC Zane is pushing for Cat 3 on BOM Scale. Will he make it??




I saw it as 40 mph storm before i went to sleep...now it's near "hurricane" intensity.
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Quoting Grothar:
Typical comma shape. :)



Looks to be pointing a finger at FL. LOL
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TC Zane is pushing for Cat 3 on BOM Scale. Will he make it??


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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39237
Typical comma shape. :)

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26486
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning SFLWeatherman..
Interesting comparison..
I wonder how 2004 stacks up with 2005,20013..


Closer to current than 2005 is.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
2005

2013


Significant differences: Warmer anomalies across the equatorial pacific in 2005, far cooler Gulf of Guinea and cooler anomalies off the East Coast in 2005.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
2005

2013


Good Morning SFLWeatherman..
Interesting comparison..
I wonder how 2004 stacks up with 2005,20013..
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2005

2013
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yup, we will do it all over again later this afternoon.


What's interesting is around the time you observed the seabreeze collision yesterday me and some of my friends started getting severe headaches.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


More CV hurricanes taking a more western path towards the Caribbean or the Caribbean islands.


We have all been there saying that for the past few seasons (I have a gut feeling this is going to be a bad season).......... ;)

The anxiety factor is currently pretty high as we have not seen a real devastating major Cape Verde storm enter the Caribbean in some time....... Our luck is going to run out soon if not this year. Not hoping for one but I am not too keen on the analog trajectories that we usually see (as you noted above)during Neutral years.

Also not liking the current ridging patterns out there at the moment.....They will change of course between now and the peak of the season.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9231
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Things can spin in the Gulf and that doesn't necessarily mean they are tropical in nature.


Of course not..
Just a lazy Low IMO..
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Lake Charles, LA (KLCH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)





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472. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


That is a very odd sounding between 800 and 600 mb, you don't typically see lapse rates that look like that.


Low level lapse rates (sfc-3km) were pretty decent. No cap.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You see Caribbean cruisers tracking from the Eastern Atlantic or it will be closer to the islands developments?


More CV hurricanes taking a more western path towards the Caribbean or the Caribbean islands.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181
A little spin to the low heading New Orleans way..

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Interesting to see what looked light a classic seabreeze collision/daytime thunderstorm initiation happen early in the morning. Already starting to clear up as warm weather returns again.


Yup, we will do it all over again later this afternoon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.