Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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669. VR46L
darn I hate my previous post number *shudders*
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
668. etxwx
Hurricane Sandy released billions of gallons of sewage
By Associated Press /via CSM April 30, 2013

New York - Superstorm Sandy released 11 billion gallons of sewage from East Coast treatment plants into bodies of water from Washington, D.C., to Connecticut.

That's according to a study by the nonprofit science journalism group Climate Central. It says that's equivalent to having Central Park covered 41 feet high with sewage.

Most of the overflow was due to storm-surge flooding that inundated sewage treatment facilities. The sewage spilled into surrounding waters and even some city streets, most of it in New York City and northern New Jersey. The study found one-third of the spilled sewage was untreated. Ninety-four percent was due to coastal flooding damage.

It estimated the cost of repair to damaged plants at nearly $2 billion for New York and $2.7 billion for New Jersey. The report was based on data from state agencies and treatment plant operators.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
666. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
"our house, Is a very very fine house,
With two cats in the yard


In case Ped is not around...

Our House Crosby Stills Nash & Young
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
Quoting docrod:


I found an opossum in my backyard two nights ago!!
I saw on the local news a lady adopted a possum as a pet.......... Very cool
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
docrod.........Which key?


I'm in Key Colony Beach; first Big Pine, then Duck Key, then here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo................Lot's of rain all over.........................
yes i was thinking about the lakes,stream and culverts down there..i forget now, what was it..one inch of rain equals 1 foot of water on the ground?..6-8 inches could..put some of those over its banks..and..this rain we in florida will get..all week long,maybe til monday..whew...well we here in central florida can use more if you'd like to send it up north to us lol..stay safe down there.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
"our house, Is a very very fine house,
With two cats in the yard


I found an opossum in my backyard two nights ago!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting docrod:
I've been in the Keys +20 years and never seen hail yet ...

from the NWS historical discussion this morning

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...ON APRIL 30TH...IN 1979...
HAIL AS LARGE AS 3/4 INCHES FELL IN KEY WEST...ALONG WITH 1.77
INCHES OF RAIN WHICH BROKE THE DAILY RECORD IN KEY WEST. THIS 1979
TOTAL HAS SINCE BEEN BESTED BY A 3.37 INCH TOTAL IN 2003. IN 1883...
THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F WAS RECORDED. IN 1901...THE
DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 72F WAS RECORDED. IN
1991...THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 81F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN APRIL. IN 1992...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 59F
WAS RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE LATEST IN THE SPRING THAT A
TEMPERATURE BELOW 60 DEGREES HAS EVER BEEN RECORDED IN KEY WEST.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
docrod.........Which key?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
I've been in the Keys +20 years and never seen hail yet ...

from the NWS historical discussion this morning

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...ON APRIL 30TH...IN 1979...
HAIL AS LARGE AS 3/4 INCHES FELL IN KEY WEST...ALONG WITH 1.77
INCHES OF RAIN WHICH BROKE THE DAILY RECORD IN KEY WEST. THIS 1979
TOTAL HAS SINCE BEEN BESTED BY A 3.37 INCH TOTAL IN 2003. IN 1883...
THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F WAS RECORDED. IN 1901...THE
DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 72F WAS RECORDED. IN
1991...THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 81F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN APRIL. IN 1992...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 59F
WAS RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE LATEST IN THE SPRING THAT A
TEMPERATURE BELOW 60 DEGREES HAS EVER BEEN RECORDED IN KEY WEST.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
wow nws says 6 to 8 inches of rain has fallen already..stay safe down there..thats alot of water on the ground.
Largo................Lot's of rain all over.........................
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

PRC001-003-027-071-081-099-115-131-141-302130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0029.130430T1830Z-130430T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-MOCA PR-UTUADO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ISABELA PR-
CAMUY PR-AGUADA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
230 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...MOCA...UTUADO...SAN SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS...ISABELA...
CAMUY...AGUADA AND QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 229 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST 530 PM AST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6681 1832 6682 1833 6676 1825 6665
1822 6675 1825 6679 1822 6684 1819 6685
1822 6691 1826 6692 1828 6703 1830 6704
1832 6713 1838 6723 1842 6718 1839 6713
1846 6707 1847 6698

$$

ER
Omg don't tell me i won't get anything!
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2000
"our house, Is a very very fine house,
With two cats in the yard
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
My Freekin' goodness... Over 3 inches in the last 2 hours here in Palm Beach county.... Geeeez


Wow, good for you PBW! I got nothing yesterday and nothing so far today here on the west coast. I think tomorrow is my lucky day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh hell.............. I can't take any more "over my house" crap.... Enough already... Go to some where else today
wow nws says 6 to 8 inches of rain has fallen already..stay safe down there..thats alot of water on the ground.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

PRC001-003-027-071-081-099-115-131-141-302130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0029.130430T1830Z-130430T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-MOCA PR-UTUADO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ISABELA PR-
CAMUY PR-AGUADA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
230 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...MOCA...UTUADO...SAN SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS...ISABELA...
CAMUY...AGUADA AND QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 229 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST 530 PM AST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6681 1832 6682 1833 6676 1825 6665
1822 6675 1825 6679 1822 6684 1819 6685
1822 6691 1826 6692 1828 6703 1830 6704
1832 6713 1838 6723 1842 6718 1839 6713
1846 6707 1847 6698

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14883
652. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
deja vu all over again


YEP LOL

serious totals being forecast for your area next few days and the blob in the gulf is becoming very fat ... good job for the shear and temps there at the moment...

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
651. LargoFl
6:39 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
151 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-302200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
151 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

.NOW...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST...
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN HAZARD
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
650. PalmBeachWeather
6:39 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting Grothar:


Is is right over your house?
Oh hell.............. I can't take any more "over my house" crap.... Enough already... Go to some where else today
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
649. LargoFl
6:38 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

FLC086-302030-
/O.CON.KMFL.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130430T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
233 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
STREET FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CORAL GABLES. THE LOCATION AT GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING
IS WEST OF U.S. 1...EAST OF THE PALMETTO EXPRESSWAY...AND SOUTH OF
THE DOLPHIN EXPRESSWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 2578 8033 2578 8022 2573 8025 2572 8035

$$
KONARIK
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
648. Grothar
6:37 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
This is over our area right now...and it's coming down!

... A significant weather advisory is in effect for eastern Palm Beach
County... for frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to
55 mph and the development of funnel clouds...

* until 230 PM EDT

* at 154 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm near Lake Worth... and moving southeast at 10
mph.

* The storm will affect...
Hypoluxo...
Manalapan...
Ocean Ridge...
Briny Breezes...
and surrounding communities.

A waterspout may move onshore. Although typically weak and short
lived... a landfalling waterspout can cause property damage, serious
injury, or even death. Nearby piers... marinas... docks... and beach
facilities are particularly vulnerable. Homes and businesses in the
path of this waterspout may experience some damage... especially to
roofs... porches... awnings... and pool enclosures.


Is is right over your house?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
647. CybrTeddy
6:37 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Wow! It's hot here today with high dew points and humidity. I honestly thought all that rain this morning would have hung around and kept on going. There could be some strong thunderstorms later today.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
646. PalmBeachWeather
6:36 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Wow... menos mal que no hay eventos significantes n este momento
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
645. LargoFl
6:36 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
wow you guys are getting soaked down there..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
644. aspectre
6:33 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Top down views of Machu Picchu, the Pyramids of Giza, and Stonehenge

And far larger versions of those images, plus those of ruins not shown above
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
643. PalmBeachWeather
6:33 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Yeah I know the feeling ... deja vu ... every other week LOL
deja vu all over again
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
642. VR46L
6:32 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
VR... I'll give it a second chance.....LOL


Yeah I know the feeling ... deja vu ... every other week LOL
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
641. MrMixon
6:32 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
You know it's spring when winter storm warnings are mentioned in the same blog as the Grocon index...

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
640. PalmBeachWeather
6:31 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Good To see Ya !!

Thats a lot of rain !!
First time I have actually seen the pool over flowing
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
639. MrMixon
6:31 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Here we go again...

For Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet:

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Wednesday...

* timing... snow will be widespread this evening and continue through Wednesday afternoon.

* Snow accumulations... 10 to 20 inches... heaviest along east facing slopes.




I live just southwest of Boulder, near the line between the 15-18" and 18-20" predicted totals.



It's been a very snowy spring here... the dark blue line in the plot above shows snowpack for this year. You can see how our April snows have put us almost within striking distance of our normal snowpack (the red line), though significant melting has occurred over the past week. It will be interesting to see the little bump we get from tonight's/tomorrow's storm.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
638. VR46L
6:30 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
My Freekin' goodness... Over 3 inches in the last 2 hours here in Palm Beach county.... Geeeez


Good To see Ya !!

Thats a lot of rain !!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
637. PalmBeachWeather
6:30 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
VR... I'll give it a second chance.....LOL
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
636. PalmBeachWeather
6:29 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
My Freekin' goodness... Over 3 inches in the last 2 hours here in Palm Beach county.... Geeeez
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
635. Tropicsweatherpr
6:18 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC061-127-302015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0004.130430T1813Z-130430T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO
SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 203 PM AST...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAN JUAN AND GUAYNABO HAS
CAUSED SHARP RISES ON THE RIO PIEDRAS. AT 230 PM AST...USGS SENSOR
INDICATED THE RIVER AT 10.21 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY AND FLOOD STAGE
IS 11 FEET. URBAN AREAS ALSO CAN EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6603 1834 6604 1832 6608 1839 6612
1840 6613 1844 6612 1845 6611 1845 6608

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14883
634. HarryMc
6:16 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
I was taking time out to work on my boat getting it out of hibernation for the season and got side tracked by the weather.

It has been almost perfect here in New England if you like warm, dry, sunny days and cool nights (which I do) for a week now. The sky today is the most gorgeous dark blue with no clouds and a light breeze with temperature about 70.

I'm taking the rest of the day off and just lounge and enjoy. We're in an awesome pattern for a couple weeks and after the lousy winter, it's great!
Member Since: March 30, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 343
633. psetas23
6:13 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
looks like maybe one of tampas severe rain wind and possible tornado weather events hopefully whatever the blob forms doesnt stall or stick around
Member Since: June 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
632. robintampabay
6:04 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting indianrivguy:
Have a protest rally tomorrow late afternoon in Rockledge Florida.. 60 percenter for T-storms.. got lucky for the last one, Ima crossin' my fingers. :)

Ya know, one of the huge issues in food production soon to be felt is the uncertainty of the wet and dry, hot and cold. We are quickly depleting aquifers worldwide, while we allow industry to pollute them even faster than we are sucking them dry. Soon, most farms will be "dry" farms, completely dependent upon rain. Rising sea levels will exacerbate this water issue.

For a long time our numbers were controlled by rain.. where, how much, and how dependable, because it controlled most of our agriculture. It is no accident that before steam we thrived around sources of fresh water, because it grew food. Once the industrial revolution began, "we" crowded into cities and began to move places that did not grow food, nor have good water. Because of improved transportation, and because we brought "our own" water we could get away with that.

Well, right now, clean ground water is running out worldwide and transportation will get nothing but more expensive. Soon, drinkable, swimmable, fishable water and mobility aside from walking will be for the rich, or more properly, the ones with the guns. The bread baskets of the world will soon dry up as even greater pressure is put upon production, and the depleting aquifers that sustain them in drought, become completely dependent upon rain. What untreated water that is left in our lakes pond rivers and streams, will be toxic, and chock full of chemicals and compounds that kill and impair our fish, animals and HUMAN children.

A human driven mass extinction of planet earth is underway, and the human herd will be hard pressed to prevent our own. The last couple of generations that have brought us here.. well, I would imagine that what humans are left in a hundred years will damn us for all time... and they will be right.



I wish I could plus this post more than once +++++++++++!
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
631. indianrivguy
6:02 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Have a protest rally tomorrow late afternoon in Rockledge Florida.. 60 percenter for T-storms.. got lucky for the last one, Ima crossin' my fingers. :)

Ya know, one of the huge issues in food production soon to be felt is the uncertainty of the wet and dry, hot and cold. We are quickly depleting aquifers worldwide, while we allow industry to pollute them even faster than we are sucking them dry. Soon, most farms will be "dry" farms, completely dependent upon rain. Rising sea levels will exacerbate this water issue.

For a long time our numbers were controlled by rain.. where, how much, and how dependable, because it controlled most of our agriculture. It is no accident that before steam we thrived around sources of fresh water, because it grew food. Once the industrial revolution began, "we" crowded into cities and began to move places that did not grow food, nor have good water. Because of improved transportation, and because we brought "our own" water we could get away with that.

Well, right now, clean ground water is running out worldwide and transportation will get nothing but more expensive. Soon, drinkable, swimmable, fishable water and mobility aside from walking will be for the rich, or more properly, the ones with the guns. The bread baskets of the world will soon dry up as even greater pressure is put upon production, and the depleting aquifers that sustain them in drought, become completely dependent upon rain. What untreated water that is left in our lakes pond rivers and streams, will be toxic, and chock full of chemicals and compounds that kill and impair our fish, animals and HUMAN children.

A human driven mass extinction of planet earth is underway, and the human herd will be hard pressed to prevent our own. The last couple of generations that have brought us here.. well, I would imagine that what humans are left in a hundred years will damn us for all time... and they will be right.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2635
630. GeoffreyWPB
6:00 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
This is over our area right now...and it's coming down!

... A significant weather advisory is in effect for eastern Palm Beach
County... for frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to
55 mph and the development of funnel clouds...

* until 230 PM EDT

* at 154 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm near Lake Worth... and moving southeast at 10
mph.

* The storm will affect...
Hypoluxo...
Manalapan...
Ocean Ridge...
Briny Breezes...
and surrounding communities.

A waterspout may move onshore. Although typically weak and short
lived... a landfalling waterspout can cause property damage, serious
injury, or even death. Nearby piers... marinas... docks... and beach
facilities are particularly vulnerable. Homes and businesses in the
path of this waterspout may experience some damage... especially to
roofs... porches... awnings... and pool enclosures.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
629. ncstorm
5:58 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
GGEM is showing 10" to 15" of rain for most of FL over the next 7 to 10 days. Infact this model is saying FL is now in the Rainy Season.



it has the disturbance developing into a low and sitting there through 180 hours..the low dissapates around the 114 hour but its still raining into the 180th hour..

get your boats out!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
628. beell
5:55 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
617. beell 1:39 PM EDT on April 30, 2013

As I noted this am; sheer is very high over the Gulf at the moment:

Link

And sst's a little cooler in that Northern edge of the Gulf;

Link

Nice looking blob nonetheless even though it is headed in the wrong direction at the wrong time..........


For true, WW. Just a nowcast and perhaps a couple of links if needed by anyone. A surface expression is fairly common under a cool/cold core upper level system at any time of the year. Over land or over water, irrespective of any tropical development or wind shear-which can be beneficial to surface development in some cases.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
627. StormTrackerScott
5:54 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4645
626. JRRP
5:49 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Y eso pasa cuando vamos a tener un gran evento de lluvia en los proximos dias.

And that occurs when a big rain event is on tap for the comming days.




acaso no podian poner otra fecha ?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
625. StormTrackerScott
5:49 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Looking like another stormy evening around Orlando as the seabreezes come in and collide over the center of the state.



Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4645
624. NRAamy
5:48 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Jed, you are a very well spoken young man.....

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
623. weathermanwannabe
5:47 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
617. beell 1:39 PM EDT on April 30, 2013

As I noted this am; sheer is very high over the Gulf at the moment:

Link

And sst's a little cooler in that Northern edge of the Gulf;

Link

Nice looking blob nonetheless even though it is headed in the wrong direction at the wrong time..........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9400
622. StormTrackerScott
5:46 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
GGEM is showing 10" to 15" of rain for most of FL over the next 7 to 10 days. Infact this model is saying FL is now in the Rainy Season.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4645
621. JRRP
5:44 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting MississippiWx:


I've been on this handle for 3 more years than you have been on yours and you are only 500 comments behind me. I don't post enough. Lol. That's probably a good thing because when I get bored I start pointing out very stupid things. :-)


LOL!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
620. Jedkins01
5:43 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting MahFL:


If you really have flu, you won't be doing any studying, beleive me. I was in bed 24 hours with the flu, did not and could not even get out of bed.


Ok, so using terms like if you "really" have the flu?

Really? I'm in my early 20's and I'm very athletic so maybe I handle the flu a bit better than your assume? Michael Jordan played a BASKETBALL game with a violent flu. I don't mean to be rude, but since you made a blatant judgment and assertion against me, I'll say this. It's possible you're exaggerating its intensity and your actual inability to get out of bed, maybe you could have actually gotten out bed, you just didn't have the will to. I didn't even really have the ability to eat, but should I do? It's final exam week, I can't make an excuse. I couldn't just not try and then tell the professor I quit because I was too sick? I don't think so, I've fought through it and studied, although not nearly as effective of course as if I was not ill. However, I tried my best instead of telling myself I can't do anything. Certainly, if I didn't have exams coming up, for my own good and recovery I would have just stayed in bed as that's the wisest thing to do.

Or maybe you aren't exaggerating, and maybe you had just a really bad strain. Regardless though, you do realize the flu doesn't require one to be bedridden right?

Also, just getting up and walking across my apartment was a real struggle that required a lot of effort, I was sweating severely all day and felt out of breath along with a fever above 100 degrees and had severe fatigue and the "shakes". I was severely ill with a bad flu, so please, don't make ridiculous statements like that from behind a computer screen when you have no idea what I went through and what I still feel like today, and don't tell someone they can't do something or they didn't experience something as bad just because of your personal experience. Apparently, you don't know what constitutes a flu either, the virus like any virus can very significantly and each one is unique to some degree otherwise we wouldn't get the flu again since when you fight something off you become immune to that particular strain. Also, people can react differently to the same strain. Factors that determine this include the physical health of the individual, the genetics, and the condition of their immune system which may be affected by genetics alone, or by a combination of health condition or of both. Additionally, there's also factors such as how much sleep and nutrition you've had during the period as well.

Finally, I'm not saying your exaggerating, or lying, or are weak, or any of those things, however, for you to make the claim that i didn't have a severe flu virus is ridiculous, I could likewise assume all those things I've mentioned since I have no way of knowing. With that being said, I like to assume the best of people so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Just remember there is no point in making statements like that.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014
619. Slamguitar
5:43 PM GMT on April 30, 2013
Also, Lake Michigan started out around a full degree C higher average this year, but is now near normal.

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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