Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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Both our local Miami news said the blob will be over Florida tomorrow and perhaps linger for a few days. The we should be looking to the East of Florida for the low to develop.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
The NAM gives folks a soaking and they already have had plenty.
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One of the bouys due South of LA....Looks ominous but winds only gusting at 12 knots...........:)

Station KVQT
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 28.270N 92.264W
Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2013 20:35:00 UTC

Winds: N (0°) gusting to 12.0 kt
Air Temperature: 69.8 F
Dew Point: 64.4 F
Visibility: 3.5 nmi
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
Quoting VR46L:


It It were not for the temps and the shear people would be very concerned ... but I do think at the very least its a Massive rain event in the making


Yup; no lack of rain in Florida over the past few weeks for sure..........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
765. VR46L
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


One of the best "looking" non-entities I have seen in a long time in the Gulf in that shot........almost had me fooled.....Commas flying in all directions today on that one.


If It were not for the temps and the shear people would be very concerned ... but I do think at the very least its a Massive rain event in the making
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
Statement as of 4:34 PM EDT on April 30, 2013

... A significant weather advisory is in effect for central Miami-Dade
County... for frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to
55 mph...

* until 500 PM EDT

* at 431 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm 3 miles northeast of PA-Hay Okee Overlook... and
moving southeast at 10 mph.

* The storm will affect...
rural central Miami-Dade County
and surrounding communities.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty
winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related
killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Lat... Lon 2552 8049 2526 8062 2543 8087 2558 8078
time... Mot... loc 2034z 293deg 10kt 2547 8076
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:
Vis Goes Image of the Gulf ... lots of popcorn



One of the best "looking" non-entities I have seen in a long time in the Gulf in that shot........almost had me fooled.....Commas flying in all directions today on that one.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
762. VR46L
Vis Goes Image of the Gulf ... lots of popcorn

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
Quoting islander101010:
dear friends in s. fl dont forget to start getting your hurricane preparations ready. back in the 30s and 40 you all took some major hits other than andrew and wilma youve been lucky


Why only prep for hurricane season? There's EMP' s, the crash of the dollar, drought, nuclear bombs, dirty bombs, etc.....

Just prep!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Grothar:
Tell me when to stop folk. I've got hundreds of this images.






STOP!!!!!

Just kidding Gro. Hope you are having a good week.
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Hail? Bring it on!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
well this is it for me for awhile dogs need walking and the dinner bell approaches lol..stay safe out there...........SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC061-093-302130-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0016.130430T2032Z-130430T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
432 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTH CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

* AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT DRUM...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
BLUE CYPRESS LAKE...VERO LAKE ESTATES AND FELLSMERE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Quoting PedleyCA:
You guys are hogging all the rain....
Not all of it Ped, I'd send you everything coming (N of what S IL wants) if I could, we need to dry out, haven't seen a tractor in a field for 4 wks. Had another .7" in guage from weekend, morels have plenty for now, need to get some corn in the ground. Hope something keeps that L from getting cut off, but I doubt it.

Surprised dew point has dropped, doesn't feel like it (59 to 56), 83 w/ 10 mph S wind, gust to 20, 29.83". Top of WU page says StL & Spfld 87! 40s & 50s by Fri.
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Dr. Masters started the month with his Invisible Improbable Rain Discovered! post, little did he know that Intel was working on it!

Intel developing headlights that make rain invisible [w/video]
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Too bad I am alergic to possum snot. Gives me hives.
They are only cute as babies anyway.

This blob is going to make for an "interesting" morning in Florida.

Houston must be WAY flooded since it doesn't take much to fill up roads there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
754. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:
Somebody has their prom this week. Who is it?



SFL Weatherman I think

and Post away I like any imagery and maps
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
dear friends in s. fl dont forget to start getting your hurricane preparations ready. back in the 30s and 40 you all took some major hits other than andrew and wilma youve been lucky
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

FLC021-051-302045-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130430T2045Z/
HENDRY FL-COLLIER FL-
427 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL COLLIER AND SOUTH CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTIES...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HENDRY CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Quoting hurricaneben:


Well I'm in the direct path of the storm (West Boca Raton) so this may be the action I've been long awaiting--hopefully it doesn't cause major damage or even more so, no one gets hurt.
oh boy, yes stay safe down there..i sure hope it weakens
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Tell me when to stop folk. I've got hundreds of this images.




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting LargoFl:
I dont know but this particular storm is getting stronger by the minute..folks in wpb and the coastal towns should be highly alert now..its moving eastward...


Well I'm in the direct path of the storm (West Boca Raton) so this may be the action I've been long awaiting--hopefully it doesn't cause major damage or even more so, no one gets hurt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Quoting Grothar:


Good call Scott. Even though I saw it first, you gave very good coverage on this system this past week. :)


After this week I think the drought will be over for most of FL. I have received 8" of rain this month and it looks as if I will add to that today.
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Quoting Grothar:


Good call Scott. Even though I saw it first, you gave very good coverage on this system this past week. :)


Someone posted a pic the other day of a Houston back patio with two inches of almost quarter-sized hail. I guess 'paintball' sized.
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Somebody has their prom this week. Who is it?

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
408 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

FLZ043-048-049-302100-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
408 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PASCO...SOUTHEASTERN
HERNANDO AND SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM
LOCATED NEAR GARDEN GROVE...OR NEAR BROOKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
5 MPH...WILL AFFECT BROOKSVILLE...GARDEN GROVE...HERNANDO COUNTY
AIRPORT AND MASARYKTOWN...UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 293 AND 309.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IS
EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Good call Scott. Even though I saw it first, you gave very good coverage on this system this past week. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting hurricaneben:


Is that a 'bow echo' or 'derecho' forming then? I'm not very good with identifying these type of storms and 70 MPH winds are rare for South Florida.
I dont know but this particular storm is getting stronger by the minute..folks in wpb and the coastal towns should be highly alert now..its moving eastward...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Quoting LargoFl:
OMG THIS IS GETTING BAD..SOUTH FLORIDA PAY ATTENTION.............
* AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HENDRY CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.


I had that yesterday at my house except the hail was dime size. Looking nasty around Orlando this evening once the seabreezes collide.

3 boundries are going to collide over Orlando. Folks in and around Orlando stay safe this evening!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

PRC039-073-107-302145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0031.130430T1949Z-130430T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-JAYUYA PR-OROCOVIS PR-
349 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...JAYUYA AND OROCOVIS

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 348 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS URBAN FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1835 6655 1829 6646 1825 6645 1826 6642
1823 6637 1818 6644 1816 6652 1817 6665

$$

2
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14898
Quoting LargoFl:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC021-051-302045-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0031.130430T2009Z-130430T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HENDRY CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
HENDRY CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&


Is that a 'bow echo' or 'derecho' forming then? I'm not very good with identifying these type of storms and 70 MPH winds are rare for South Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
OMG THIS IS GETTING BAD..SOUTH FLORIDA PAY ATTENTION.............
* AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HENDRY CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Quoting Grothar:


No, I can't. What do you think I am, the EURO with Debby??? It is going to move east "right over my house"


But .... everyone said you were the one steering all these storms. /pout
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC021-051-302045-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0031.130430T2009Z-130430T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HENDRY CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
HENDRY CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Globe.




Yeah, but over half of mine consist of NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks, cyclone public advisories, cyclone discussions, and cyclone tracks from 2010-2012. If we took all that away, my comment count would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8,000-13,000, which isn't all that bad.



Globe with bumps.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting VR46L:


Gro you are going to scare folk ... the only flagged area is off NOLA....



Ahhh. that is what they want you to think.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EDT
Tuesday 30 April 2013
Condition:Cloudy
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:65.1°F
Dewpoint:56.5°F
Humidity:74%
Wind:SSE 11 mph

forecasting highs of 70 tomorrow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Globe.



Quoting MississippiWx:


Indeed. Get a life, Teddy. LOL.

Don't worry. TA has been on his handle for far less time than you or me and he has about 25k comments. You are A-ok. :-)

Yeah, but a ton of mine consist of NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks, cyclone public advisories, cyclone discussions, and cyclone tracks from 2010-2012. If we took all that away, my comment count would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8,000-13,000, which isn't all that bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
726. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:
Finally picking up something forming.



Gro you are going to scare folk ... the only flagged area is off NOLA....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
FLZ063-302100-
GLADES FL-
357 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

.NOW...
AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUSE MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
PALMDALE AND ORTONA.

GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION.

$$
KONARIK
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
One more month and we kick it into high gear again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
723. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


We were talking about California. I think, weren't we VR46L?


I was addressing you about CA Ped ...

But My Bad .. to me that Florida solution looked tropical in nature with the pattern of troughs coming up from the south over Florida ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
359 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

FLZ040-302030-
MARION-
359 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAINBOW LAKES
ESTATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ROMEO...RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES AND DUNNELLON
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2910 8255 2921 8254 2922 8253 2922 8241
2925 8241 2920 8224 2900 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 296DEG 8KT 2917 8248

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
Quoting redwagon:


Can you make that thing turn left, well, hop OVER Houston first, then go a little North?


No, I can't. What do you think I am, the EURO with Debby??? It is going to move east "right over my house"
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
A big rain event will be unfolding in the Eastern Caribbean later this week and going thru the weekend.Let's see if our friend Cariboy gets what he wants.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS THE NCNTRL ATLC
WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN THRU SUN. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLC WILL INDUCE A
BROAD SFC TROF BETWEEN 60W AND 70W THU THRU SAT WITH A SHEARLINE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRI AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SATURDAY
AND INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN-MON. IT APPEARS THU AND FRI WILL
BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE...LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DEEPEN. STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM EAST TODAY TO NORTHEAST ON WED AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH
THU AND FRI FROM WSW TO ENE. EXPECT NORTHEAST PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI TO BE AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAINS. BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE STILL FCST
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY TOTALS ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SVRL DAYS
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WSW TO ENE LIKELY AFFECTING
JSJ IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS ADJACENT TO THE USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 86 / 20 30 30 60
STT 75 85 76 85 / 10 20 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14898


in 72 hrs the winds begin
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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