Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.


Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.


Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanization
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defenses
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasing
Over the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).


Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.


Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

McRoberts, D. Brent, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2011, "A New Homogenized Climate Division Precipitation Dataset for Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change," J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1187–1199.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like everything around Tampa is falling apart.
no worries! We had widespread rains of 1-3" last night, and check out gomex vis sat!
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Levi hows the weather in Alaska ? I need to cool of!!!!!
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Heat index for today reched 136 f i will post some pictures of what happens when its so hot later in the evning
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XX/XX/XX
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm afraid to ask what the dipping sauce for herring balls is made of :(


After due meditation, I've been illuminated he meant *stewed* lentils and *stuffed* herring balls. His servants printed the menu wording backwards.

Man, Austin needs rain.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


So despite that, the PDO will continue negative?


Well no not despite it. The warm pool north of Hawaii is characteristic of a negative PDO in April and May. This is what the PDO pattern looks like (mentally reverse the colors for negative PDO):

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Well firstly it fits well with a typical negative PDO signal, but the pattern the last two weeks with a semi-permanent cut-off low north of Hawaii has reduced the strength of the westerlies north of the subtropical high, which may be allowing the water to warm more than normal.



So despite that, the PDO will continue negative?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Looks like everything around Tampa is falling apart.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi. What is causing that big warm pool located North to Northeast of Hawaii?



Well firstly it fits well with a typical negative PDO signal, but the pattern the last two weeks with a semi-permanent cut-off low north of Hawaii has reduced the strength of the westerlies north of the subtropical high, which may be allowing the water to warm more than normal.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10974
Hi Levi. What is causing that big warm pool located North to Northeast of Hawaii?

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009


Loop
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Starting to look like Fargo dodged a bullet this year.
Crest forecast down from 38 feet a few days ago.
Just shy of the top of the dike.
Live Webcam
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18Z GFS shows a very wet NE Caribbean.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Levi the models predict for the ITCZ to be more north than normal for the hurricane season but at the moment is far below normal. What do you think of this?


It could be due to the MJO hanging out in the Indian Ocean for the next couple weeks on the GFS forecast. I don't think the ITCZ position in the Atlantic matters much until we pass May 20th, which seems to be the magic date when the pattern flips rapidly from spring to summer mode.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is the 25-run CFSv2 2-meter temperature anomaly forecast for May 2013:



Average of the past 7-runs:



Most recent:



No Spring...maybe June? =(



Ugh.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Levi the models predict for the ITCZ to be more north than normal for the hurricane season but at the moment is far below normal. What do you think of this?


Don't like the yellow tongue over the N Leewards.
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Quoting Levi32:
It's time to start watching the northern Indian Ocean as the monsoon kicks in. Full-resolution extended GFS (~0.625° instead of 2.5°) develops major TC in the Arabian Sea, along with another late southern hemisphere cyclone to the south.

Click for full size:

Levi the models predict for the ITCZ to be more north than normal for the hurricane season but at the moment is far below normal. What do you think of this?
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From this afternoon's Miami NWS Disco...

THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, AN OFFSET TO THIS WAS THAT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE HAVE ALSO WARMED SO THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION THAN ON
MONDAY. PWAT IS ALSO VERY HEIGHT FOR LATE APRIL AND THIS THE
REASON FOR THE EXTREME RAIN. OUR RADAR HAS ESTIMATED NEAR 10 INCH
TOTAL IN CORAL GABLES AREA JUST WEST OF MIRACLE MILE.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10974
Quoting Grothar:


Herring balls.



I'm afraid to ask what the dipping sauce for herring balls is made of :(
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10974
See that? Looks like outflow boundaries are going to collide directly down the length of I-4 in Hillsborough. Plant City and Brandon might get something interesting.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
It's time to start watching the northern Indian Ocean as the monsoon kicks in. Full-resolution extended GFS (~0.625° instead of 2.5°) develops major TC in the Arabian Sea, along with another late southern hemisphere cyclone to the south.

Click for full size:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is the 25-run CFSv2 2-meter temperature anomaly forecast for May 2013:



Average of the past 7-runs:



Most recent:



No Spring...maybe June? =(

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Oh boy. Atlanta is getting a new stadium and some of the designs are just awesome. These seem to be one of the two that are in the running. This one does have a retractable roof.



If you wish to see the roof and how it works go to the video on the bottom of the page. Very cool on both. Here is the other one.



Second one really pushes being eco. Link
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Quoting Grothar:
Last image for awhile. I just got an early dinner call. Stuffed lentils and steamed herring balls. mmmm I can't wait.




How do you stuff a lentil? Really tiny pieces of crab meat?

Radar is starting to fill in around here...



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Quoting Grothar:


Herring balls.





Well-hidden, I might add.
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Quoting redwagon:


Perhaps you meant herring 'rolls'.



You'd need to eat about 650,000 herring balls otherwise.


Herring balls.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25358
Interesting, thunderstorms are sort of back building towards the west coast of Florida, lingering boundaries around the West Coast of Florida and approaching upper energy will likely allow for additional heavy rain in areas the need it most by tomorrow morning.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
Quoting Grothar:
Last image for awhile. I just got an early dinner call. Stuffed lentils and steamed herring balls. mmmm I can't wait.




Perhaps you meant herring 'rolls'.



You'd need to eat about 650,000 herring balls otherwise.
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Quoting VR46L:


SFL Weatherman I think

and Post away I like any imagery and maps


I think it was SFL.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25358
The ITCZ is on the last day of April in the equator and IMO, I say is lower than what is supposed to be.(Between 4-6N)

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Michelle Schlachta, April 30, 2013
Community Manager, Weather Underground
Greetings WunderBlog Community,


Link
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Last image for awhile. I just got an early dinner call. Stuffed lentils and steamed herring balls. mmmm I can't wait.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25358
Quoting hurricaneben:


Is that a 'bow echo' or 'derecho' forming then? I'm not very good with identifying these type of storms and 70 MPH winds are rare for South Florida.



70 mph winds are not rare in south Florida, they get thunderstorms throughout the summer that occasionally produce winds that high or stronger.

Widespread events in one day are not that common, but that's the nature of tropical convective air masses not driven by dynamics and frontal systems. However, over the course of the summer, most people experience severe thunder storm events in Central and south Florida.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup; no lack of rain in Florida over the past few weeks for sure..........
Nor C IL, have had 9.2" in last 16 days. Sure hope we get less than shown in models, but forecast has rain chance for 6 days starting Thurs p.m. We're good, would like 10 - 14 days w/ some breeze and lots of sun to dry fields. Then .5"ish rains every week to 10 days for next two months - one can wish anyway!
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Black Dog

Sun is out 72.9 here...
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Hey, hey, Mama, said the way you move,
Gonna make you sweat, gonna make you grove......


Get the Led out!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25358
Quoting CaribBoy:


BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE STILL FCST
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY TOTALS ARE LIKELY.

I like this statement, but I prefer to not believe them until I see the rain beginning to fall... lol and not just a short shower :-)
Don't drown please!
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(Credit: Image courtesy of National University of Ireland, Galway)

Exploring the Saltiness of the Ocean to Study Climate Change

Apr. 30, 2013 — Details are emerging from a recent research expedition to the Sub-Tropical North Atlantic. The objective of the expedition was to study the salt concentration (salinity) of the upper ocean. Scientists aboard the Spanish research vessel Sarmiento de Gamboa, including National University of Ireland Galway’s Dr Brian Ward with two of his PhD students, Graig Sutherland and Anneke ten Doeschate, explored the essential role of the ocean in the global water cycle.

...

Dr Ward explains: “The ocean and atmosphere are a coupled system and therefore need to be studied in unison. A major part of our research is to determine how this system affects and is affected by climate and environmental change.”

This Irish and Spanish collaboration is part of a bigger international effort called SPURS - Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study. There was also an American research ship in the area participating in the SPURS study, and the Spanish ship was visited by Dr Ray Schmitt from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI).

...

One of the biggest motivators for SPURS was the recent launch of two satellites for measuring ocean salinity: the European Space Agency’s Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and NASA’s Aquarius mission. Dr Ward explains: “It is envisioned that with the combination of the in-situ measurements, satellites, and computer models, we can improve our estimates of global climate change and the water cycle. These data will also be used to improve weather forecasting, and we worked with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting during this field experiment.”

Read the whole article on Science Daily
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A big rain event will be unfolding in the Eastern Caribbean later this week and going thru the weekend.Let's see if our friend Cariboy gets what he wants.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS THE NCNTRL ATLC
WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN THRU SUN. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLC WILL INDUCE A
BROAD SFC TROF BETWEEN 60W AND 70W THU THRU SAT WITH A SHEARLINE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRI AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SATURDAY
AND INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN-MON. IT APPEARS THU AND FRI WILL
BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE...LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DEEPEN. STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM EAST TODAY TO NORTHEAST ON WED AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH
THU AND FRI FROM WSW TO ENE. EXPECT NORTHEAST PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI TO BE AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAINS. BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE STILL FCST
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY TOTALS ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SVRL DAYS
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WSW TO ENE LIKELY AFFECTING
JSJ IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS ADJACENT TO THE USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 86 / 20 30 30 60
STT 75 85 76 85 / 10 20 50 50


BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE STILL FCST
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY TOTALS ARE LIKELY.

I like this statement, but I prefer to not believe them until I see the rain beginning to fall... lol and not just a short shower :-)
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Hey, hey, Mama, said the way you move,
Gonna make you sweat, gonna make you grove......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Finnally!
You seen the videos from San Juan? Heavy flooding!Link
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Hi folks over there in blob land. Here's is an update on the flooding situation (including large amounts of hail) on the usual dry Arabian peninsula

30 April 2013 Last updated at 21:32 (Video)
Torrential thunderstorms have brought more than a month's worth of rain in a few hours to parts of the Arabian peninsula, leading to extensive flooding. BBC Weather's Chris Fawkes reports.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Busting the shield!


Finnally!
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Heading home shortly but here is a part of the PM Tallahassee NWS discussion on the Gulf. Confirms what we have been seeing all day.......It is moving real slow.....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
234 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2013


.NEAR TERM [Rest of this afternoon and Tonight]...
The 17 UTC regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary frontal boundary from north central FL, extending westward just off the Gulf Coast to the LA area. A large MCS was propagating eastward along the front near LA, while plenty of deep moist convection continued to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico.


Everyone have a great afternoon and stay safe......WW.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8785
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


After this week I think the drought will be over for most of FL. I have received 8" of rain this month and it looks as if I will add to that today.


Nice and green over here in FLL. It reminds me of the old rainy seasons we used to get. It looks like more for the rest of the week.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25358
Busting the shield!
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Both our local Miami news said the blob will be over Florida tomorrow and perhaps linger for a few days. The we should be looking to the East of Florida for the low to develop.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25358

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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