Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on April 26, 2013

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"There's no place on Earth that is changing faster--and no place where that change matters more--than Greenland." So said 350.org founder Bill McKibben, in a 2012 Rolling Stone magazine interview. As Earth Week 2013 draws to a close, I want to draw your attention to a unique effort to learn more about why Greenland is melting so fast--a crowd-funded research project that anyone can contribute to, which aims to answer the "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? The Dark Snow Project, the first-ever Greenland expedition relying on crowd-source funding, hopes to raise $150,000 to mount a field research campaign to find out. The project is the brainchild of Dr. Jason Box, Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and one of the world's leading experts on Greenland's glaciers. He has set up a website called darksnowproject.org to help raise the funds for the field campaign, and has raised about half of the needed amount as of mid-April.


Figure 1. Over the course of several years, turbulent water overflow from a large melt lake carved this 60-foot-deep (18.3 meter-deep) canyon in Greenland's Ice Sheet (note people near left edge for scale). Image credit: Ian Joughin, University of Washington.

2012: Unprecedented melting in Greenland
Watching the weather events of 2012 over Greenland made all seasoned climate watchers a little queasy. The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and the ice melt season of 2012 gave notice that an epic melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet may be underway. According to NOAA's 2012 Arctic Report Card, the duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2012 was the longest since satellite observations began in 1979, and the total amount of summer melting was nearly double the previous record, set in 2010 (satellite records of melting go back to 1979.) A rare, near-ice sheet-wide surface melt event melted 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet on July 11 - 12. While a similar melt event at the summit occurred 1889, but the 1889 event has no basis in the instrumental record from coastal Greenland. It's instead likely that 2012 was Greenland's warmest summer in at least 863 years, since the medieval warm period (see http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 and http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=725). The incredibly warm temperatures have been blamed on highly unusual atmospheric circulation and jet stream changes, which were also responsible for 2012's unusually wet summer weather in England. It would not be a surprise if this sort of summer began occurring more often, since temperatures on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been rising six times faster than the global average during the past twenty years. A May 2013 Geophysical Research Letters paper by McGrath et al., "Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications", concluded that by 2025, there is a 50% chance of ice sheet-wide melt events happening annually. The ice sheet reached its darkest value on record in 2012. The darkened surface was due to below average summer snow, soot particles from pollution and forest fires, and record melting. A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown, which is why Dr. Box is determined to find out, via the Dark Snow Project.


Figure 2. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Greenland causing 25% of global sea level rise
In a landmark study published in November 2012 in Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories reported that the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica has tripled since the 1990s, with Greenland contributing more than twice as much to global sea level rise than Antarctica. The study, "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance", found that the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011. The remainder of the rise was due to expansion of the water due to heating of the oceans, melting of mountain glaciers, and unsustainable pumping of ground water. Said co-author Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "The pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s." As of 2011, Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise on its own had risen to 20 - 25%, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters on 1 June 2012. If the current exponential ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022, the researchers said. Many sea level rise researchers expect global sea level to rise by about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100. During the 20th century, global sea level rise was about 0.18 meters (7 inches.)


Figure 3. Monthly smoothed (purple) and unsmoothed (blue) values of the total mass lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gigatons, Gt) from measurements by the GRACE satellites between March 2002-September 2012. An approximate equivalent global sea level rise figure is on the right axis. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. Image credit: 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Will Antarctica be more important than Greenland for sea level rise?
Although melting from Greenland is currently raising global sea level by about a factor of two more than Antarctica melting is, that situation may change later this century. A 2013 study by Dahl-Jensen et al. looked at a new ice core drilled from the bottom-most depths of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core suggests that the ice in Greenland may have partially survived the warm Eemian period before the Ice Age, approximately 118,000 - 126,000 years ago, when Greenland temperatures were 5- 8°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Global sea level during the Eemian was 4 - 8 meters (13 - 26 ft) higher than the present sea level, and the scientists estimated that melting from Greenland was responsible for 2 meters (6.6 ft) of this sea level rise. This implies that Antarctica was responsible for 50 - 75% of global sea level rise during the Eemian, and thus we might expect Antarctica to take over as the dominant source of sea level rise later this century, when global temperatures may to rise to levels similar to those experienced during the Eemian.

Related posts
Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July (July 25, 2012)
Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (July 18, 2012)
Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt (May, 2012)
Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

Dr. Jason Box's blog on Greenland and the Dark Snow Project is at http://www.meltfactor.org.

The http://www.greenlandmelting.com/ website looks like a great resource for following this year's melt progression in Greenland.


Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and 350.org founder Bill McKibben plug the Darksnow project in this January 2013 video by Peter Sinclair. There's some impressive footage of the record Greenland snow melt of summer 2012 sweeping away a 20-ton tractor that was attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland. The driver escaped unharmed.

Support the Dark Snow Project
One of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to support the Dark Snow Project. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Dark Snow Project Expedition Plan 2013
Prepare and gather science equipment including a field spectrometer, snow and ice coring device, and snow metrics kit.

Travel to Iqualuit, on Baffin Island, Nunavut from home locales in California, Ohio, Michigan, Vermont and rendezvous with Dash-6 "Twin Otter" ski-equipped airplane and flight crew.

Organize cold weather survival kit.

Ferry team from Iqualuit to Kangerlussuaq, Greenland.

Fly to and land at sampling sites high on the inland ice sheet.

At each site collect snow samples from a snow pit and obtain snow cores to a minimum depth of the previous year's snow surface, and record snow properties.

Transport of team and snow samples to Greenland's capital Nuuk, where the team will rest after hustling at field sites.

Return to Iqualuit, then to respective home locales to start the data analysis and reporting phase of campaign.

Jeff Masters

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1382. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:10 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Quoting Andrebrooks:
What do you think of this hurricane season

You're on the wrong blog...

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31867
1381. Andrebrooks
9:07 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
What do you think of this hurricane season
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
1380. Andrebrooks
7:58 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
T-28 days til hurricane season.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
1379. Andrebrooks
7:58 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
How is everybody,
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
1378. 1900hurricane
4:38 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting stormchaser19:


Link

Thanks, I appreciate it!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
1377. Neapolitan
3:46 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting luvtogolf:


Interesting read. Now let the deniers come in and shoot this down as unsubstantiated garbage and claim that the science has proven the earth will continue to bake until the end of the world.
As anyone reading that newspaper clipping will quickly realize, the opinions and assumptions inserted by the article's writer are not supported by the scientists quoted in the piece. Who are these "scientists from Britain and the US" of which the writer speaks? Who are these "some experts"? Who are the "they" who say that a "cold spell will set in"?

This is the problem with falling for popular journalism while ignoring mountains of peer-reviewed science: you'll almost always get a bum steer, just as we see here.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
1376. weathermanwannabe
3:46 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting Chicklit:
If you look at the extent of damage both Isaac and Sandy did, then you will see that our definition of "major" needs to change.


Great point. If sea levels do rise in the coming decades, a tropical storm alone, with storm surge issues, will cause much more damages and coastal losses than in past decades..........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9024
1375. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1374. FunnelVortex
3:43 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting luvtogolf:


Interesting read. Now let the deniers come in and shoot this down as unsubstantiated garbage and claim that the science has proven the earth will continue to bake until the end of the world.


Ugh, now the anti AGW crowd is using the term "denier" now.

The anti AGW crowd saying "denier" is just as childish as the AGW crowd saying it!
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1373. Neapolitan
3:41 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting yonzabam:
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 399.72 parts per million (ppm) and is likely to pass the symbolically important 400ppm level for the first time in the next few days.

Readings at the US government's Earth Systems Research laboratory in Hawaii, are not expected to reach their 2013 peak until mid May, but were recorded at 399.72ppm on 25 April. The weekly mean average stood at 398.5 on Monday.

The last time CO2 levels were so high was probably in the Pliocene epoch, between 3.2m and 5m years ago, when Earth's climate was much warmer than today.

Link
Actually, a handful of hourly average CO2 readings at Mauna Loa were over the 400 ppm line this week, and since NH atmospheric CO2 hits its annual peak in the next two weeks, there will almost certainly be one or more daily averages over that line.

co2
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
1372. SouthDadeFish
3:40 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


When you say recently what does that mean? Ever since the AMO transitioned into a warm phase in 1995 we have seen many more major hurricanes. That is what I would call "recent." There is definitely a correlation between warm AMO and greater numbers of major hurricanes.

While it is true just because you have warmer SSTs doesn't mean you will have many more major hurricanes, we have observed increases in the numbers of major hurricanes over decadal time spans due to SST changes.

To clarify, I don't necessarily agree with the paper about storm surges either, just wondering if you were referring to the part about an increase in the number of major hurricanes.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1371. FunnelVortex
3:39 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Hey Scot, are the models still showing your potential subtrop?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1370. luvtogolf
3:38 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting NRAamy:
‘We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim

Date: 29/04/13

Voice of Russia


‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040.’

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.


Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.

“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.

“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.


Interesting read. Now let the deniers come in and shoot this down as unsubstantiated garbage and claim that the science has proven the earth will continue to bake until the end of the world.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 968
1369. LargoFl
3:36 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1368. weathermanwannabe
3:35 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Good Morning. Gray & Klotzbach currently reject any potential GW impacts on Atlantic season hurricanes (the basin they focus on). The low numbers of majors last year, as opposed to the predictions where everyone turned out wrong, is an interesting outcome and linked to higher trade wind speeds and very stable air over the Atlantic basin. We don't know exactly what will happen this year but these are two additional factors to consider outside of the normal "summer" baselines (low shear/ssts/MJO/SAL/EAW formation/rise of the ITCZ above 10 degrees/moist ITCZ, etc).

These baselines are "nature" driven and have existed for thousands of years as they fall into place every summer in the Atlantic basin. Don't expect these mechanisms to change significantly anytime soon but they all have to "gel" at one time to make a viable development environment for any particular storm.

SST's and low shear are not enough in and by themselves to create a reasonable number of majors in any given season......Will be interesting to see if any of these baselines do in fact alter somewhat in the coming decades and what the impact, if any, will be on what has typically been defined as a "normal" hurricane season by analog standards.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9024
1367. Chicklit
3:34 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
If you look at the extent of damage both Isaac and Sandy did, then you will see that our definition of "major" needs to change.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11267
1366. seminolesfan
3:31 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting Jedkins01:


haha yep!

I'm actually ill with a pretty severe flu right now so I'm a little worried about being prepared for my finals as it has been quite hard to study, hopefully I'll still make it through ok, by the time I'm home I should be back to normal health as well.


One of the things that too many students do not seem to understand: The harder you study for an exam, the less you actually know coming out of that class.

The material should be understood and answers to questions and details should be available for quick recall.

The more you structure your brain by last minute studying, the more you ingrain an "order" to the material in the storage medium of your grey-matter- "connections" and make dis-ordered recall of the details even harder to perform at exam time.

This is the reason you should take notes, read the material in the text both before and after the lecture, reread your notes before the weekend...etc.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
1365. LargoFl
3:30 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1364. Sangria
3:28 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
RE: Posts 1259 and 1346

I don't post often, but I read this blog, along with other sites, daily. Most often, it is pretty valid info, but I have to say.....either I need a new prescription, for my glasses......or a new monitor, with better color resolution.......

I'm sorry, Will Robinson.....this does not compute.....this does not compute......

Even the QPF, from HPC, is taken with a micro grain of salt.....





Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
1363. LargoFl
3:27 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1362. LargoFl
3:25 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1361. LargoFl
3:23 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
STAY INDOORS JEDKINS..DONT KNOW HOW FAR THIS IS FROM YOU....TALLAHASEE --
About 1,100 people have been evacuated from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles office in Tallahassee after the DMV received a threatening letter mentioning "anthrax" and said to contain a suspicious powder.

Hazmat crews at the scene said they have begun investigating the powder, which was not immediately identified.
"Following standard protocol, local, state and federal authorities were notified, and the building was temporarily evacuated until the area is deemed safe to return," said Florida Highway Patrol Capt. Nancy Rasmussen.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1360. LargoFl
3:20 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BECOMING NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1359. LargoFl
3:19 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
12Z NAM onboard with Nogaps, Euro, & GGEM with showing a very heavy rain event for FL (especially eastern FL) with some areas easily getting 10" of rain by the end of the week.


gee if that verifies, some lakes and stream will flood huh..we'll see what happens..i think my area is 4-7 inches below normal,not sure on that but if we got 5 inches this week i'd be happy.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1358. RTSplayer
3:16 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
The annual average is the center line. It appears we'd need another 9 or 10 year for that to reach 415ppm at Hawaii, or about 7 or 8 years in Alaska.



and

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1357. VR46L
3:16 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting NRAamy:
‘We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim

Date: 29/04/13

Voice of Russia


‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040.’

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.


Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.

“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.

“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.



You are going to wake them up and make them mad !!!


But Interesting Piece !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6877
1356. NRAamy
3:08 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
‘We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim

Date: 29/04/13

Voice of Russia


‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040.’

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.


Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.

“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.

“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
1355. evilpenguinshan
3:06 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
What Does 400 ppm Look Like?

The Pliocene is the geologic era between five million and three million years ago. Scientists have come to regard it as the most recent period in history when the atmosphere’s heat-trapping ability was as it is now and thus as our guide for things to come.

Recent estimates suggest CO2 levels reached as much as 415 parts per million (ppm) during the Pliocene. With that came global average temperatures that eventually reached 3 or 4 degrees C (5.4-7.2 degrees F) higher than today’s and as much as 10 degrees C (18 degrees F) warmer at the poles. Sea level ranged between five and 40 meters (16 to 131 feet) higher than today.

The Keeling Curve
Member Since: March 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 506
1354. StormTrackerScott
3:03 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yes very beneficial rain appears to be on the way. I'll be home later this week from FSU since finals are this week, so I'll be in Tampa Bay for the rainy season :)


A fairly strong ESE wind and a cut off upper low looks like it is going to set the stage for some very high rain totals across FL especially on the eastern side of the state.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
1353. Jedkins01
3:02 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hey buddy your coming back down just in time for some fun.


haha yep!

I'm actually ill with a pretty severe flu right now so I'm a little worried about being prepared for my finals as it has been quite hard to study, hopefully I'll still make it through ok, by the time I'm home I should be back to normal health as well.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7385
1352. StormTrackerScott
2:59 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting Jedkins01:



A simple yet monumental truth. I've always emphasized this at well. Technically water temps only near to hit the mid 80's for even a high end category 5 given the right atmospheric conditions.

It's kind of like getting excited about a new refined fuel the boosts your engines horsepower by 50 but you don't even have an efficient enough engine to take advantage of.

Thankfully, even under the greatest conditions, hurricanes are still not that efficient in utilizing the available energy. What most people don't think about is what is far more important than temperature is heat capacity. The total heat capacity of water is VERY high which is why it is such a good "fuel" source for hurricanes.

It is the reason you get so cold going in the water, because the process of thermodynamics is transfer of heat. Your body's heat is literally being depleted quickly and transferred into the water.

Since heat moves from a warmer to a cooler object, as long as your body is warmer than the water temperature, you can still get hypothermia given enough time in it thanks to the impressive heat capacity of water. However, once water becomes warmer than your body, the same happens. That is why you could touch a 212 degree surface like metal, and yes your hand would get quite hot, but no real burns. However, we all no that boiling water feels like liquid fire. In fact I've been burned by both fire and boiling water, I'd actually take fire over boiling water...


Hey buddy your coming back down just in time for some fun.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
1351. Jedkins01
2:59 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Coastal areas of C & S FL may pull a Houston this week as flooding would be likely with that amount of rain.


Yes very beneficial rain appears to be on the way. I'll be home later this week from FSU since finals are this week, so I'll be in Tampa Bay for the rainy season :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7385
1350. Jedkins01
2:58 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.



A simple yet monumental truth. I've always emphasized this at well. Technically water temps only near to hit the mid 80's for even a high end category 5 given the right atmospheric conditions.

It's kind of like getting excited about a new refined fuel the boosts your engines horsepower by 50 but you don't even have an efficient enough engine to take advantage of.

Thankfully, even under the greatest conditions, hurricanes are still not that efficient in utilizing the available energy. What most people don't think about is what is far more important than temperature is heat capacity. The total heat capacity of water is VERY high which is why it is such a good "fuel" source for hurricanes.

It is the reason you get so cold going in the water, because the process of thermodynamics is transfer of heat. Your body's heat is literally being depleted quickly and transferred into the water.

Since heat moves from a warmer to a cooler object, as long as your body is warmer than the water temperature, you can still get hypothermia given enough time in it thanks to the impressive heat capacity of water. However, once water becomes warmer than your body, the same happens. That is why you could touch a 212 degree surface like metal, and yes your hand would get quite hot, but no real burns. However, we all no that boiling water feels like liquid fire. In fact I've been burned by both fire and boiling water, I'd actually take fire over boiling water...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7385
1349. stormchaser19
2:57 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Paper on whether coupling hurricane models to underlying waves is necessary for accurate hurricane prediction released online by the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society



Link
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
1348. stormchaser19
2:54 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Paper on the understanding and forecasting of rapid changes to tropical cyclones published in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review...
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
1347. StormTrackerScott
2:54 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Coastal areas of C & S FL may pull a Houston this week as flooding would be likely with that amount of rain.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
1346. StormTrackerScott
2:51 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
12Z NAM onboard with Nogaps, Euro, & GGEM with showing a very heavy rain event for FL (especially eastern FL) with some areas easily getting 10" of rain by the end of the week.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
1345. stormchaser19
2:50 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Do you have a link to the paper available to you? I would love to give that one a read.


Link
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
1344. yonzabam
2:47 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 399.72 parts per million (ppm) and is likely to pass the symbolically important 400ppm level for the first time in the next few days.

Readings at the US government's Earth Systems Research laboratory in Hawaii, are not expected to reach their 2013 peak until mid May, but were recorded at 399.72ppm on 25 April. The weekly mean average stood at 398.5 on Monday.

The last time CO2 levels were so high was probably in the Pliocene epoch, between 3.2m and 5m years ago, when Earth's climate was much warmer than today.

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2918
1343. RTSplayer
2:47 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


RE: 1334.

Would be interesting to see the averages by decade for each of the past 3 decades.

It would seem that one year below 25 percentile more than makes up for the over-active years we've had.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1342. AussieStorm
2:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
did anyone get that BaseBall sized hail yesterday..cant imagine being in that whew.....

If I did, I would of got out swinging i.e got "struck-out"
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1341. AussieStorm
2:43 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting Grothar:


I find your entry to be highly offensive. I know where there TROPICS are and it does not have to be pointed out to me like a two year old. I joke around but I am nobody's fool, including yours. I was pointing out to Levi in a joking way about the different climates in Florida, (of which we have four in case you didn't know). I know damn well Florida does not lie in the """""TROPICS""""", geographically. The climate in South Florida is considered tropical, and the rest varies.

Chillax mate. It was meant in a sarcastic way, No offence intended. Peace
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1340. aspectre
2:43 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
1261 trunkmonkey: I have more information the Drought Monitor is full of...

Water flooding down streets and rivers then onward to the ocean does not alleviate drought.
Dumping lemonade down the drain does not quench your thirst.
Claiming that it does so does not make you look smart.

Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1339. RTSplayer
2:40 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


The study is a fallacy, since it focuses on alleged "category 4 and 5 hurricanes," and obviously assumes the worst surges are associated with the highest landfall intensities, which we already know is not entirely true.

This is why I would favor a two-tiered classification and warning system. It's true local mets and even NHC already use two-tiered terminology sometimes, "The storm has category 3 winds, but may make a storm surge typical of category 4".

However, the fact that such terminology is not used as an official classification, even though the original SS Hurricane scale was obviously intended to be used that way, ends up ultimately being less effective, I think, in warning people of the conditions.

The old scale was not communicated properly, and surge values were associated with a fixed wind value or wind category, which was never intended to be the case, as the original scale used, "either winds between X and Y, or surge between A and B" language.


So to my mind, if they want to talk about the effects of SST changes on storm surges, they first need to classify storms by their surge potential, so that they aren't mixing terminology, the way the incorrectly used SS Hurricane scale was doing.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1338. 1900hurricane
2:40 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Quoting stormchaser19:

Paper on how hurricanes gain energy from boundary-layer turbulence published in Geophysical Research Letters

Do you have a link to the paper available to you? I would love to give that one a read.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
1337. stormchaser19
2:30 PM GMT on April 29, 2013

Paper on how hurricanes gain energy from boundary-layer turbulence published in Geophysical Research Letters
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
1336. LargoFl
2:24 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
some nice rains coming to you later gainesville etc.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1335. LargoFl
2:22 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
nature coast stay alert,some heavy rain coming..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1334. GeorgiaStormz
2:10 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
1333. JRRP
2:05 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5694
1332. LargoFl
2:03 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.