Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on April 26, 2013

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"There's no place on Earth that is changing faster--and no place where that change matters more--than Greenland." So said 350.org founder Bill McKibben, in a 2012 Rolling Stone magazine interview. As Earth Week 2013 draws to a close, I want to draw your attention to a unique effort to learn more about why Greenland is melting so fast--a crowd-funded research project that anyone can contribute to, which aims to answer the "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? The Dark Snow Project, the first-ever Greenland expedition relying on crowd-source funding, hopes to raise $150,000 to mount a field research campaign to find out. The project is the brainchild of Dr. Jason Box, Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and one of the world's leading experts on Greenland's glaciers. He has set up a website called darksnowproject.org to help raise the funds for the field campaign, and has raised about half of the needed amount as of mid-April.


Figure 1. Over the course of several years, turbulent water overflow from a large melt lake carved this 60-foot-deep (18.3 meter-deep) canyon in Greenland's Ice Sheet (note people near left edge for scale). Image credit: Ian Joughin, University of Washington.

2012: Unprecedented melting in Greenland
Watching the weather events of 2012 over Greenland made all seasoned climate watchers a little queasy. The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and the ice melt season of 2012 gave notice that an epic melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet may be underway. According to NOAA's 2012 Arctic Report Card, the duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2012 was the longest since satellite observations began in 1979, and the total amount of summer melting was nearly double the previous record, set in 2010 (satellite records of melting go back to 1979.) A rare, near-ice sheet-wide surface melt event melted 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet on July 11 - 12. While a similar melt event at the summit occurred 1889, but the 1889 event has no basis in the instrumental record from coastal Greenland. It's instead likely that 2012 was Greenland's warmest summer in at least 863 years, since the medieval warm period (see http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 and http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=725). The incredibly warm temperatures have been blamed on highly unusual atmospheric circulation and jet stream changes, which were also responsible for 2012's unusually wet summer weather in England. It would not be a surprise if this sort of summer began occurring more often, since temperatures on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been rising six times faster than the global average during the past twenty years. A May 2013 Geophysical Research Letters paper by McGrath et al., "Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications", concluded that by 2025, there is a 50% chance of ice sheet-wide melt events happening annually. The ice sheet reached its darkest value on record in 2012. The darkened surface was due to below average summer snow, soot particles from pollution and forest fires, and record melting. A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown, which is why Dr. Box is determined to find out, via the Dark Snow Project.


Figure 2. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Greenland causing 25% of global sea level rise
In a landmark study published in November 2012 in Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories reported that the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica has tripled since the 1990s, with Greenland contributing more than twice as much to global sea level rise than Antarctica. The study, "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance", found that the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011. The remainder of the rise was due to expansion of the water due to heating of the oceans, melting of mountain glaciers, and unsustainable pumping of ground water. Said co-author Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "The pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s." As of 2011, Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise on its own had risen to 20 - 25%, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters on 1 June 2012. If the current exponential ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022, the researchers said. Many sea level rise researchers expect global sea level to rise by about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100. During the 20th century, global sea level rise was about 0.18 meters (7 inches.)


Figure 3. Monthly smoothed (purple) and unsmoothed (blue) values of the total mass lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gigatons, Gt) from measurements by the GRACE satellites between March 2002-September 2012. An approximate equivalent global sea level rise figure is on the right axis. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. Image credit: 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Will Antarctica be more important than Greenland for sea level rise?
Although melting from Greenland is currently raising global sea level by about a factor of two more than Antarctica melting is, that situation may change later this century. A 2013 study by Dahl-Jensen et al. looked at a new ice core drilled from the bottom-most depths of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core suggests that the ice in Greenland may have partially survived the warm Eemian period before the Ice Age, approximately 118,000 - 126,000 years ago, when Greenland temperatures were 5- 8°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Global sea level during the Eemian was 4 - 8 meters (13 - 26 ft) higher than the present sea level, and the scientists estimated that melting from Greenland was responsible for 2 meters (6.6 ft) of this sea level rise. This implies that Antarctica was responsible for 50 - 75% of global sea level rise during the Eemian, and thus we might expect Antarctica to take over as the dominant source of sea level rise later this century, when global temperatures may to rise to levels similar to those experienced during the Eemian.

Related posts
Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July (July 25, 2012)
Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (July 18, 2012)
Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt (May, 2012)
Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

Dr. Jason Box's blog on Greenland and the Dark Snow Project is at http://www.meltfactor.org.

The http://www.greenlandmelting.com/ website looks like a great resource for following this year's melt progression in Greenland.


Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and 350.org founder Bill McKibben plug the Darksnow project in this January 2013 video by Peter Sinclair. There's some impressive footage of the record Greenland snow melt of summer 2012 sweeping away a 20-ton tractor that was attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland. The driver escaped unharmed.

Support the Dark Snow Project
One of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to support the Dark Snow Project. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Dark Snow Project Expedition Plan 2013
Prepare and gather science equipment including a field spectrometer, snow and ice coring device, and snow metrics kit.

Travel to Iqualuit, on Baffin Island, Nunavut from home locales in California, Ohio, Michigan, Vermont and rendezvous with Dash-6 "Twin Otter" ski-equipped airplane and flight crew.

Organize cold weather survival kit.

Ferry team from Iqualuit to Kangerlussuaq, Greenland.

Fly to and land at sampling sites high on the inland ice sheet.

At each site collect snow samples from a snow pit and obtain snow cores to a minimum depth of the previous year's snow surface, and record snow properties.

Transport of team and snow samples to Greenland's capital Nuuk, where the team will rest after hustling at field sites.

Return to Iqualuit, then to respective home locales to start the data analysis and reporting phase of campaign.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not surprised at all; I get the distinct impression that most people here appreciate Dr. Masters' writing about the many facets of climate change, especially when there's nothing at all going on in the tropics. And I for one am happy he has chosen to do so on a Friday, as that affords the forum possibly three full days of sometimes productive talk. Let's be honest here: it's still only April, and the rapid rise of the planet's oceans is of far greater concern--and vastly greater importance--than a possible sub- (or non-) tropical system 150 or more hours away from initialization.


For you, maybe. Don't get me wrong, I understand the need for global warming awareness and I fully support funding and research into fixing the problems we face - after all, a good ship still needs maintenance, and when your ship is about to sink it's a pretty good idea to patch up the wounds. And what bigger and better ship is there but Earth, sailing through the cosmos with us as its passengers? However, I go on this blog solely for the community and the incredible amount of knowledge given off by people about one of my great passions - observing tropical cyclone genesis and forecasting them.

The majority of Dr. Masters posts during the summer are almost (with the exception of various footnote stories and during the slow time, some GW) entirely dedicated to various Atlantic invests, tropical storms. We have sometimes up to 7,000 posts in a day when a major storm is threatening land vs maybe the 800-1000 in a week we get during the off-season from as you mentioned from productive GW talk. Many of us share this strong fascination with tropical cyclones, and most of us are on here during this time of year to share that fascination - been like that every season.
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This ones for you ncstorm

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's our gift for being patient.
yeah sure looks like our area's will be getting rain this time..IF all this pans out.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
129. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah the gfs has something around florida on both sides around wens...I want to see if anyone else has the gfs run for 126 hours..


Lots of rain Largo

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Looks like an all day rain Thursday man we can sure use it..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
1029 High over SE Canada and a strong ULL over the north Atlantic blocking this possible STS from moving away from FL.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
192 hours (8 days) on the 12z Euro:

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144 hrs..whatever is in the gulf comes real close to me if not IN..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
Quoting LargoFl:
and for Thursday...whew..whats That..........
That's our gift for being patient.
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Some basics on the european news site:

When weather becomes climate

Together with:

Bonus interview: Adam Scaife, Head of Climate Prediction, Met Office Hadley Centre.
25/04 12:11 CET
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General capeverde tracks similar to that of Frances is what iam expecting this season if things don't change. Easily see few impacts in Florida and Gulf of Mexico. Very active across the mdr
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and for Thursday...whew..whats That..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
120. VR46L
Quoting Gearsts:
Those are the boring models ;)


I am actually interested to see how the Navegam does ...
The NAM not really of any interest at all to me


The Navegam is finally jumped on board for a bit of mischief not the storm of the CMC


CMC


Navegam



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's probably the result of this "subtropical" cyclone the models are showing. Interesting times ahead. If the models are showing it developing in a weeks time, it has a good shot happening.
yeah the gfs has something around florida on both sides around wens...I want to see if anyone else has the gfs run for 126 hours..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
118. txjac
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
After Jedkins's pic yesterday some good news

Ceramic Foam Cleans Up Exhaust Gases


That certainly is good news. I hope that by the time it's required in cars that the expense is not excessive
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Scott..check out Your GFS for midweek..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
Quoting LargoFl:
Tampa Bay southward, THIS has Changed for next week...


That's probably the result of this "subtropical" cyclone the models are showing. Interesting times ahead. If the models are showing it developing in a weeks time, it has a good shot happening.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Surprised with all these models showing a possible STS near FL & the SE US next week that we have a GW Blog. Not even a mention from DOC. It's time to dust off your Tropical Blogs Doc as we are nearing Hurricane Season.
I'm not surprised at all; I get the distinct impression that most people here appreciate Dr. Masters' writing about the many facets of climate change, especially when there's nothing at all going on in the tropics. And I for one am happy he has chosen to do so on a Friday, as that affords the forum possibly three full days of sometimes productive talk. Let's be honest here: it's still only April, and the rapid rise of the planet's oceans is of far greater concern--and vastly greater importance--than a possible sub- (or non-) tropical system 150 or more hours away from initialization.
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Quoting barbamz:

Image credit: Y. Schaub/ Geographisches Institut, Uni. Zürich

Some melting glacier news from Switzerland (including a photo gallery and some maps) on Spiegel English:

Land O' Lakes: Melting Glaciers Transform Alpine Landscape

By Axel Bojanowski

Climate change is dramatically altering the Swiss Alps, where hundreds of bodies of water are being created by melting glaciers. Though the lakes can attract tourists and even generate electricity, local residents also fear catastrophic tidal waves.

Read the whole article

And a happy weekend Friday from (today and tommorrow) very rainy and cold snapped Germany.
you can see how the glacier shaped the coast.Nice pic.
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COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1111 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG BAY SIDE OF SOUTH BEACH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

FLZ173-262315-
/O.CON.KMFL.CF.S.0001.000000T0000Z-130428T0600Z/
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
1111 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG BAY SIDE OF SOUTH BEACH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

* COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING AROUND HALF OF A
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY LEAD TO MINOR STREET FLOODING AROUND
THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF SOUTH BEACH
IN THE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS EXTENDING NORTH FROM 5TH
STREET.

* TIMING...AROUND HIGH TIDE...WHICH ARE SCHEDULED LATER THIS
EVENING AROUND 930 PM.

* IMPACTS...STANDING WATER ON ROADS ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF SOUTH
BEACH EXTENDING NORTH FROM 5TH STREET. STANDING WATER COULD
LINGER ON STREETS A FEW HOURS PAST HIGH TIDE AND LEAD TO
PARTIAL ROAD CLOSURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY!

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
Tampa Bay southward, THIS has Changed for next week...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
The Euro is running. 6 days out there's low pressure in the Gulf, probably drenching parts of the SE:

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Quoting VR46L:


LOL ...

Dont forget he also has the Navagem and NAM too ;)
Those are the boring models ;)
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After Jedkins's pic yesterday some good news

Ceramic Foam Cleans Up Exhaust Gases
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Quoting yonzabam:


It would be great if another Otzi emerged from the melting ice.



Not another Otzi yet, but his clothes
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106. VR46L
Quoting Gearsts:
Yep now we all spam Levi's MDR sst anomaly map and the GEM doom with a little MSLP anomaly.


LOL ...

Dont forget he also has the Navagem and NAM too ;)
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Quoting fortpiercecane1:
Sand is being added back to the beaches in Martin and Saint Lucie counties here in Florida after last years season in which we took bad erosion. A decent sts could wash away a lot of time and tax payers money real fast.

You realize that it is going to be washed away regardless?
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hey guys Breaking News from Grand Cayman
the post office headquarters in the capital was evacuated not too long age due to suspicious packages its currently not clear whether these packages have IED's or chemical substance however police, Task Force(Local S.W.A.T.)Fire, and HazMat teams are at the location
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Quoting barbamz:

Image credit: Y. Schaub/ Geographisches Institut, Uni. Zürich

Some melting glacier news from Switzerland (including a photo gallery and some maps) on Spiegel English:

Land O' Lakes: Melting Glaciers Transform Alpine Landscape

By Axel Bojanowski

Climate change is dramatically altering the Swiss Alps, where hundreds of bodies of water are being created by melting glaciers. Though the lakes can attract tourists and even generate electricity, local residents also fear catastrophic tidal waves.

Read the whole article

And a happy weekend Friday from (today and tommorrow) very rainy and cold snapped Germany.


It would be great if another Otzi emerged from the melting ice. I found the story fascinating, particularly the tatoos on his body which correlated with acupuncture points.

I watch all the tv documentaries about him (except the 'curse of Otzi' ones). I bet there are guys wandering the Alps, hoping to find another mummified ice man.

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Quoting ScottLincoln:

We're already there... that is how Greenland is contributing to sea level rise, otherwise there would be no net gain.


True, I was trying to say that the difference between annual freeze and annual melt would increase as time goes along. Said it poorly. (Hopefully better this time.)
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Quoting VR46L:


Cool ... because I prefer them to Raleigh or Instant Maps !

I will be taking use out of your site ... Thats a promise LOL
Yep now we all spam Levi's MDR sst anomaly map and the GEM doom with a little MSLP anomaly.
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Sea Surface Temperatures Reach Highest Level in 150 Years On Northeast Continental Shelf

Apr. 26, 2013 — Sea surface temperatures in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem during 2012 were the highest recorded in 150 years, according to the latest Ecosystem Advisory issued by NOAA's Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC). These high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are the latest in a trend of above average temperature seen during the spring and summer seasons, and part of a pattern of elevated temperatures occurring in the Northwest Atlantic, but not seen elsewhere in the ocean basin over the past century.
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Quoting BobChecks:
But as time goes along the amount melted will become larger and larger than the amount reformed in the winter.

We're already there... that is how Greenland is contributing to sea level rise, otherwise there would be no net gain.
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Image credit: Y. Schaub/ Geographisches Institut, Uni. Zürich

Some melting glacier news from Switzerland (including a photo gallery and some maps) on Spiegel English:

Land O' Lakes: Melting Glaciers Transform Alpine Landscape

By Axel Bojanowski

Climate change is dramatically altering the Swiss Alps, where hundreds of bodies of water are being created by melting glaciers. Though the lakes can attract tourists and even generate electricity, local residents also fear catastrophic tidal waves.

Read the whole article

And a happy weekend Friday from (today and tommorrow) very rainy and cold snapped Germany.
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Quoting Levi32:


You are more than welcome to. That is the entire point of my model page. I want the graphics used and reposted by people who find them useful. If I didn't want them used, there would be a paywall or I would disable remote linking.


Cool ... because I prefer them to Raleigh or Instant Maps !

I will be taking use out of your site ... Thats a promise LOL
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Quoting VR46L:


Levi is it ok to use your graphics? ... I really like your model section !


You are more than welcome to. That is the entire point of my model page. I want the graphics used and reposted by people who find them useful. If I didn't want them used, there would be a paywall or I would disable remote linking.
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Zager and Evans who wrote/performed "In the year 2525" made music chart history. Their first song released made it to #1 in the US and UK.  None of their next songs made it into the top 100 in either country--the only music artist for which that is true.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



the bowling ball on the GFS just sits there with a low inside of it circling around the east US


this is crazy....


Flooding?
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Surprised with all these models showing a possible STS near FL & the SE US next week that we have a GW Blog. Not even a mention from DOC. It's time to dust off your Tropical Blogs Doc as we are nearing Hurricane Season.



Every friday we get a GW blog to argue us into the weekend..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Surprised with all these models showing a possible STS near FL & the SE US next week that we have a GW Blog. Not even a mention from DOC. It's time to dust off your Tropical Blogs Doc as we are nearing Hurricane Season.

The Doc is being cautious because it's still a week plus out and he wants to do something that he is concerned with now.I'm hope you don't see this as coming off mean.I just want rain what ever it becomes.
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Quoting DFWdad:
What exactly would it take for all of it to melt? Seriously, I want to know. How many years of no additional snow, and no winter temperatures?




Even when the last ice melts we would still be having winter temperatures and snow. It's still going to be dark for a large part of the year and with no sunshine is will get cold.

The cold won't be as cold, but still cold enough to form annual ice and to snow.

Melting will take place in the sunny part of the year like we're seeing right now in the Arctic Ocean. We've melted away most of the older, thicker ice. We still see the surface of the ocean freeze over during the winter.

Soon we should settle into a routine in which the Arctic Ocean freezes over in the winter and becomes ice free in the summer like the Great Lakes do (or did).

Greenland will melt in the hot months and gain a little back from snowfall in the cold months. But as time goes along the amount melted will become larger and larger than the amount reformed in the winter.
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WPC Discussion

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1120 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 12Z MON APR 29 2013 - 12Z FRI MAY 03 2013

EARLY NEXT WEEK BREAKDOWN OF REX BLOCKING NWD FROM THE N-CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND SUBSEQUENT ENERGY TRANSFER AND NRN STREAM/ALASKAN
INFLUENCE LEADS TO MID-LATE WEEK AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPMEMNT OVER THE GULF OF AK. THIS COMPLEX
TRANSITION LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER WRN NOAM
THAT ALLOWS FOR MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO CARVE AN
EMERGING AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED AND EVENTUAL
STRONG CONVECTION FOCUSING FRONTAL/LOW SYSTEM SLATED TO DIG SEWD
FROM THE NWRN US MON/TUE AND THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL US FRI.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY OFFERS A REASONABLY CONSISTENT FLOW
PATTERN AT LARGER SCALES DESPITE SMALL-MID SCALE EMBEDDED SYSTEM
INTERACTION/WAVELENGTH SPACING UNCERTAINTY. TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
AND PROGRESSION LATE WEEK TOWARD THE ERN US SEEMS PROBLEMATIC DUE
TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING EMINATING FROM THE N ATLANTIC SO GUIDANCE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WRESTLE WITH PROGRESSION AND AMPLITIDE
SPECIFICS...WITH FORECAST SPREAD INCREASING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
DAYS 6/7 THU/NEXT FRI.

MEANWHILE...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO EVIDENT WITHIN A LESS
DEFINED SRN STREAM WHOSE LINGERING LEAD GULF COAST TROFFING ALOFT
AND ASSOCIATED AND WEAKENING/WAVY LEAD STATIONARY FRONT OFFERS
POTENTIAL FOR LATER WEEK SERN US/FL COASTAL LOW FORMATION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

OVERALL GIVEN NATURE OF THE FLOW AND GUIDANCE...THE WPC MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00
UTC GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER...OUR SOLUTION FOR DAYS 3
INTO 5 MON-WED IN ADDITION TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO ADDED IN A
COMPOSITE DETERMINITSIC MODEL BLEND (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET) TO INFUSE MORE DETAIL IN A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY LOWER FORECAST SPREAD. THE WPC SOLUTION MAINTAINED
GOOD WPC FORECAST CONTINUITY.

SCHICHTEL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225



the bowling ball on the GFS just sits there with a low inside of it circling around the east US


this is crazy....
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Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC total accumulated precipitation through 240 hours:



Levi is it ok to use your graphics? ... I really like your model section !
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Levi, if you are still here, are you doing a Tidbit today?
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Quoting indianrivguy:


in the year 2525, if man is still alive...


That is going back some..... :0
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Surprised with all these models showing a possible STS near FL & the SE US next week that we have a GW Blog. Not even a mention from DOC. It's time to dust off your Tropical Blogs Doc as we are nearing Hurricane Season.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
Quoting indianrivguy:


I'm curious as to why that would interest you..what generated that question?

it interests "me" now.. :)


I was thinking about ocean evaporation, climate change, tropical storms. Just started wondering!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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