Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on April 26, 2013

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"There's no place on Earth that is changing faster--and no place where that change matters more--than Greenland." So said 350.org founder Bill McKibben, in a 2012 Rolling Stone magazine interview. As Earth Week 2013 draws to a close, I want to draw your attention to a unique effort to learn more about why Greenland is melting so fast--a crowd-funded research project that anyone can contribute to, which aims to answer the "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? The Dark Snow Project, the first-ever Greenland expedition relying on crowd-source funding, hopes to raise $150,000 to mount a field research campaign to find out. The project is the brainchild of Dr. Jason Box, Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and one of the world's leading experts on Greenland's glaciers. He has set up a website called darksnowproject.org to help raise the funds for the field campaign, and has raised about half of the needed amount as of mid-April.


Figure 1. Over the course of several years, turbulent water overflow from a large melt lake carved this 60-foot-deep (18.3 meter-deep) canyon in Greenland's Ice Sheet (note people near left edge for scale). Image credit: Ian Joughin, University of Washington.

2012: Unprecedented melting in Greenland
Watching the weather events of 2012 over Greenland made all seasoned climate watchers a little queasy. The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and the ice melt season of 2012 gave notice that an epic melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet may be underway. According to NOAA's 2012 Arctic Report Card, the duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2012 was the longest since satellite observations began in 1979, and the total amount of summer melting was nearly double the previous record, set in 2010 (satellite records of melting go back to 1979.) A rare, near-ice sheet-wide surface melt event melted 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet on July 11 - 12. While a similar melt event at the summit occurred 1889, but the 1889 event has no basis in the instrumental record from coastal Greenland. It's instead likely that 2012 was Greenland's warmest summer in at least 863 years, since the medieval warm period (see http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 and http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=725). The incredibly warm temperatures have been blamed on highly unusual atmospheric circulation and jet stream changes, which were also responsible for 2012's unusually wet summer weather in England. It would not be a surprise if this sort of summer began occurring more often, since temperatures on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been rising six times faster than the global average during the past twenty years. A May 2013 Geophysical Research Letters paper by McGrath et al., "Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications", concluded that by 2025, there is a 50% chance of ice sheet-wide melt events happening annually. The ice sheet reached its darkest value on record in 2012. The darkened surface was due to below average summer snow, soot particles from pollution and forest fires, and record melting. A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown, which is why Dr. Box is determined to find out, via the Dark Snow Project.


Figure 2. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Greenland causing 25% of global sea level rise
In a landmark study published in November 2012 in Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories reported that the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica has tripled since the 1990s, with Greenland contributing more than twice as much to global sea level rise than Antarctica. The study, "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance", found that the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011. The remainder of the rise was due to expansion of the water due to heating of the oceans, melting of mountain glaciers, and unsustainable pumping of ground water. Said co-author Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "The pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s." As of 2011, Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise on its own had risen to 20 - 25%, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters on 1 June 2012. If the current exponential ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022, the researchers said. Many sea level rise researchers expect global sea level to rise by about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100. During the 20th century, global sea level rise was about 0.18 meters (7 inches.)


Figure 3. Monthly smoothed (purple) and unsmoothed (blue) values of the total mass lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gigatons, Gt) from measurements by the GRACE satellites between March 2002-September 2012. An approximate equivalent global sea level rise figure is on the right axis. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. Image credit: 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Will Antarctica be more important than Greenland for sea level rise?
Although melting from Greenland is currently raising global sea level by about a factor of two more than Antarctica melting is, that situation may change later this century. A 2013 study by Dahl-Jensen et al. looked at a new ice core drilled from the bottom-most depths of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core suggests that the ice in Greenland may have partially survived the warm Eemian period before the Ice Age, approximately 118,000 - 126,000 years ago, when Greenland temperatures were 5- 8°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Global sea level during the Eemian was 4 - 8 meters (13 - 26 ft) higher than the present sea level, and the scientists estimated that melting from Greenland was responsible for 2 meters (6.6 ft) of this sea level rise. This implies that Antarctica was responsible for 50 - 75% of global sea level rise during the Eemian, and thus we might expect Antarctica to take over as the dominant source of sea level rise later this century, when global temperatures may to rise to levels similar to those experienced during the Eemian.

Related posts
Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July (July 25, 2012)
Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (July 18, 2012)
Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt (May, 2012)
Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

Dr. Jason Box's blog on Greenland and the Dark Snow Project is at http://www.meltfactor.org.

The http://www.greenlandmelting.com/ website looks like a great resource for following this year's melt progression in Greenland.


Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and 350.org founder Bill McKibben plug the Darksnow project in this January 2013 video by Peter Sinclair. There's some impressive footage of the record Greenland snow melt of summer 2012 sweeping away a 20-ton tractor that was attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland. The driver escaped unharmed.

Support the Dark Snow Project
One of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to support the Dark Snow Project. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Dark Snow Project Expedition Plan 2013
Prepare and gather science equipment including a field spectrometer, snow and ice coring device, and snow metrics kit.

Travel to Iqualuit, on Baffin Island, Nunavut from home locales in California, Ohio, Michigan, Vermont and rendezvous with Dash-6 "Twin Otter" ski-equipped airplane and flight crew.

Organize cold weather survival kit.

Ferry team from Iqualuit to Kangerlussuaq, Greenland.

Fly to and land at sampling sites high on the inland ice sheet.

At each site collect snow samples from a snow pit and obtain snow cores to a minimum depth of the previous year's snow surface, and record snow properties.

Transport of team and snow samples to Greenland's capital Nuuk, where the team will rest after hustling at field sites.

Return to Iqualuit, then to respective home locales to start the data analysis and reporting phase of campaign.

Jeff Masters

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1332. LargoFl
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1331. LargoFl
STAY ALERT THIS EVENING EAST COAST FLORIDA..................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL SEA AND LAKE
BREEZES WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR...AND HIGHEST COVERAGE OF...LIGHTNING STORMS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN ABOUT 400 PM AND 1000 PM. EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM TO INITIALLY FORM FROM THE TREASURE
COAST TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND SEA AND LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND INLAND AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES PUSH TOWARD THE INTERIOR...AND INTERACTIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE FREQUENT.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. DUE TO
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...COIN SIZED HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE
PERIOD. MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...OR IF SKIES
LOOK THREATENING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH A STORM MOTION OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
OR GREATER...HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING OVER INLAND
LAKES...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY...AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC. SEEK
SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
THERE IS A VERY SMALL...BUT DISCERNIBLE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS OR
FUNNEL CLOUDS TO FORM IN SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY...BARRIER ISLANDS AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC. ANY SPOUT WHICH
FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO.
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1330. LargoFl
this one is gonna miss me i think.............
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1329. LargoFl
gulf waters warming up now..............
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1326. LargoFl
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FL
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1324. LargoFl
Getting closer..................
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CMC big big big rain on SFL!

1001MB on FL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


Did you rip that right our of Landsea's previous remarks?

Lol jk,
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


A perfect post.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


+100
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1317. pcola57
Re: Post 1312

Very interesting post John..
Important studies with substantial info on Major Hurricaines..
An estimated 40% increase in Katrina type storm surges being proven by the data..
Wow..
Thats quite an increase..
Thanks so much for the post this am.. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


Great post TA13
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4737
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.
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1314. LargoFl
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1313. LargoFl
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I hope THAT does not verify. I'll take the rain but not the straight line winds or lighening and hail
Hiya, yes we need to stay alert this afternoon and evening
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New Research Shows Humans Causing More Strong Hurricanes


"The link between human-caused global warming and extreme weather is often difficult to pin down, particularly with regards to hurricanes. As Kevin Trenberth has discussed, all weather now occurs in a climate that humans have altered.


"it is important to recognize that we have a %u201Cnew normal,%u201D whereby the environment in which all storms form is simply different than it was just a few decades ago. Global climate change has contributed to the higher sea surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures, a warmer and moister atmosphere above the ocean, higher water levels around the globe, and perhaps more precipitation in storms."

Two new papers have recently been published examining the link between global warming and hurricane intensity. In both cases, the scientists have found evidence that the most intense hurricanes are already occurring more often as a result of human-caused global warming. However, their predictions about future hurricane changes differ somewhat."

Grinsted on Hurricane Storm Surges


In a new paper, Grinsted et al. (2013) constructed a storm surge index beginning in 1923 from six long tide gauge records in the southeastern USA. The idea is that surges in sea level recorded at tide gauge stations can tell us about strong hurricane events. Consistent with their 2012 results, the authors found:


"The strong winds and intense low pressure associated with tropical cyclones generate storm surges. These storm surges are the most harmful aspect of tropical cyclones in the current climate, and wherever tropical cyclones prevail they are the primary cause of storm surges."

They compared their storm surge index to changes in global surface temperature, to temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR; a part of the Atlantic Ocean where most hurricanes form), and to MDR warming relative to the tropical mean temperatures (rMDR). They found that averaged sea surface temperatures over the MDR are the best predictor of Atlantic cyclone activity, followed by global average surface temperature, with MDR warming relative to the tropics being the worst predictor of hurricane activity (Figure 1).

Figure 1: (A) Average surge index over the cyclone season. (B) Observed frequency
of surge events with surge index greater than 10 units per year (surge index > 10 units). (C) Global average temperature, MDR temperature, and rMDR temperature anomaly. Inset shows locations along the US coast of the six tide gauges used in the surge index.

Grinsted et al. then used the relationships between hurricane storm surges and global and MDR temperatures to predict how storm surges will change in the future. The used the Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, which represents a future in which we slowly reduce human greenhouse gas emissions such that they peak around the year 2040. In this scenario, there is approximately 2.4%uFFFDC global surface warming over the 21st century. The results are shown in Figure 2.

"The response to a 1%uFFFDC warming is consistently an increase [in Katrina-level storm surges] by a factor of 2%u20137 ... This increase does not include the additional increasing surge threat from sea level rise"

http://skepticalscience.com//pics/Grinsted13Fig3. png

Figure 2: Number of Katrina magnitude surge events per decade (B) hindcast and projected changes in temperatures from climate model BNU-ESM under for RCP4.5 (A). The thick blue line shows the projection using the full spatial gridded temperatures and confidence interval (5%u201316%u201384%u201395%); magenta and black show the projections using only Main Development Region (MDR) and global average surface temperature.

In short, the Grinsted results suggest that by the end of the century, we will see 2 to 7 times more Katrina-like intense hurricanes. Moreover, their storm surges and associated damage will be even larger because sea levels will also be higher.

In another important result, Grinsted et al. found that on average, the frequency of Katrina-magnitude storm surges doubles for every approximately 0.4%uFFFDC average global surface warming. Since human-caused global surface warming over the past century has already exceeded 0.4%uFFFDC,


"we have probably crossed the threshold where Katrina magnitude hurricane surges are more likely caused by global warming than not."

Holland and Bruy%uFFFD

Holland and Bruy%uFFFD (2013) developed an Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) to investigate the potential global warming contribution to current tropical cyclone activity. Their ACCI is the difference between climate model runs including human climate influences (greenhouse gases and aerosols) and runs without those human influences.

The study concluded that while they don't see any human influence in the total number of hurricanes, there is a strong signal with global warming causing more strong (Category 4 and 5) and fewer weak (Category 1 and 2) hurricanes (Figure 3).


"We find an observed change in the proportion of global Cat 4%u20135 hurricanes (relative to all hurricanes) at a rate of ~40% increase in proportion per %uFFFDC increase in ACCI ... We conclude that since 1975 there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase in the proportion of Cat 4%u20135 hurricanes of 25%u201330% per %uFFFDC of anthropogenic global warming."




Figure 3: Human influence on hurricane proportions in the highest (Category 4-5) and lowest (Category 1-2) Saffir%u2013Simpson hurricane categories

This result means more than a doubling of strong hurricanes for every %uFFFDC of warming, similar to that of Grinsted et al. (2%u20137 times more Katrina-like events), though a bit lower.

The good news is that the model used by Holland and Bruy%uFFFD anticipates that we are approaching a limit in this trend of increasing proportionality of intense hurricanes


"An important finding is that the proportion of intense hurricanes appears to initially increase in response to warming oceans, but then approach a saturation level after which no further increases occur. There is tentative evidence that the saturation level will differ across the tropical cyclone basins and that the global proportion of Cat 4%u20135 hurricanes may already be near it%u2019s saturation level of ~40%u201350%."

Summary

These two papers add to the growing body of evidence that we are seeing more intense hurricanes as a result of human-caused global warming. The Grinsted paper also notes that the most harmful aspect of hurricanes %u2013 storm surges %u2013 have become larger over the past few decades.

The future of hurricanes remains an open question. While Grinsted predicts that the most intense hurricanes will continue to become more and more frequent in a warming world, the results of Holland and Bruy� suggest that we may be near the peak of intense hurricane frequency. The Grinsted results are more in line with most previous hurriane modeling research, but for the sake of people living in areas subject to hurricanes, we hope that Holland and Bruy� are correct about the hurricane saturation level.






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Quoting LargoFl:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.


I hope THAT does not verify. I'll take the rain but not the straight line winds or lighening and hail
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1310. Grothar
Quoting AussieStorm:


So I am still geographically correct... Thanks


I find your entry to be highly offensive. I know where there TROPICS are and it does not have to be pointed out to me like a two year old. I joke around but I am nobody's fool, including yours. I was pointing out to Levi in a joking way about the different climates in Florida, (of which we have four in case you didn't know). I know damn well Florida does not lie in the """""TROPICS""""", geographically. The climate in South Florida is considered tropical, and the rest varies.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1309. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
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1308. LargoFl
did anyone get that BaseBall sized hail yesterday..cant imagine being in that whew.....
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1307. LargoFl
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hi Largo, this may be your week to get some much needed rains! Jedkins said his yard is drying up so I hope you guys can join in on the action as well.
Hi, yes we need this rain badly, looks like a good possibility all week long, if we DO get this it will help out with our drought situation.
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good morning guys
hmm it looks like NHC is on board with models lets see what happens


and also there is what looks to be a good tropical wave in east central africa
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Quoting LargoFl:


Hi Largo, this may be your week to get some much needed rains! Jedkins said his yard is drying up so I hope you guys can join in on the action as well.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4737
1304. pcola57
Quoting LargoFl: Post#1299
a wet evening rush hour if this verifies............


I agree Largo..
Messy day for them..



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1303. LargoFl
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1302. LargoFl
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 3h
A mix of sun & clouds today with sct shwrs & storms, mainly during the afternoon #FLwx http://ow.ly/i/1ZHEL
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Quoting pcola57:


Interesting feature Scott..
I'm curious..
Do you have a Good GOM 3 day out forecast model??


I prefer the Euro out of all the models in the 3 to 5 day range as it is the most consistant.

This little yellow dot over Louisiana is the upper low that is over TX now.

72hrs
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4737
1300. LargoFl
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
RE 1245 Tropicsweatherpr:

IMPACTS: SHOULD THE MODELS VERIFY THEIR SOLUTIONS...WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL TO CREATE SERIOUS FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE AREA
IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORM. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERAL CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE MOVE LITTLE AND BE CONCENTRATED
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND LEEWARD VALLEYS. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE PLUME FORMS OVER THEM SATURDAY AND CONTINUES OVER THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EVEN BETTER DYNAMICS THAN APPEAR OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO COULD EXCEED 12 TO 16 INCHES IN PLACES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 4 INCHES...OR MORE THAN WHAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS SOLUTION.


Good morning/afternoon/evening all

That's some pretty significant rain on its way! I would suspect some extensive flooding as the ground is so dry here.

And true to form, Carnival came and went, and the rains arrive!
Good Luck over there Lindy..stay safe
Lindy
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1299. LargoFl
a wet evening rush hour if this verifies............
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RE 1245 Tropicsweatherpr:

IMPACTS: SHOULD THE MODELS VERIFY THEIR SOLUTIONS...WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL TO CREATE SERIOUS FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE AREA
IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORM. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERAL CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE MOVE LITTLE AND BE CONCENTRATED
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND LEEWARD VALLEYS. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE PLUME FORMS OVER THEM SATURDAY AND CONTINUES OVER THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EVEN BETTER DYNAMICS THAN APPEAR OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO COULD EXCEED 12 TO 16 INCHES IN PLACES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 4 INCHES...OR MORE THAN WHAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS SOLUTION.


Good morning/afternoon/evening all

That's some pretty significant rain on its way! I would suspect some extensive flooding as the ground is so dry here.

And true to form, Carnival came and went, and the rains arrive!

Lindy
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Quoting AussieStorm:
The Weather Channel
Today is the official launch of Tornado Hunt 2013! Tune-in all week as the Tornado Hunt crew puts themselves at risk in order to document a tornado's development! Stay up-to-date with our livestream and be sure to 'LIKE' our Tornado Hunt Facebook page.


Lets hope this doesn't end badly for one of there reporters.


The only thing is they won't have any tornadoes to track atleast for the next 2 weeks. Maybe they'll see a thunderstorm with large hail and gusty winds later this week.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4737
1296. LargoFl
wens might turn out to be interesting for the coastal area's..
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1295. pcola57
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That upper low could be the ignitor of our possible STS later this week.


Interesting feature Scott..
I'm curious..
Do you have a Good GOM 3 day out forecast model??
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The Weather Channel
Today is the official launch of Tornado Hunt 2013! Tune-in all week as the Tornado Hunt crew puts themselves at risk in order to document a tornado's development! Stay up-to-date with our livestream and be sure to 'LIKE' our Tornado Hunt Facebook page.


Lets hope this doesn't end badly for one of there reporters.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Those wave are starting to move up in latitude now.


Yes, those waves still need to gain some latitude before we'll have something to track
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1292. LargoFl
Tampa put the shields down we need this here lol.........
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Quoting pcola57:
Lots of moisture aloft in Texas this am..



That upper low could be the ignitor of our possible STS later this week.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4737
1290. pcola57
Lots of moisture aloft in Texas this am..

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1289. pcola57
Monday Morning blues for Mid-Atlantic this am

Raleigh/Durham, NC (KRAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Wilmington, NC (KLTX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Dover AFB, DE (KDOX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

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1288. LargoFl
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1287. pcola57




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1286. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Chance of rain all week 40% to 70%!!:)
sounds great..nice to see the rains returning for us in florida.
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1284. LargoFl
HAD A LIGHT SHOWER EARLIER,STRONG ONES LATER ON MAYBE.....
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Chance of rain all week 40% to 70%!!:)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron