Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on April 26, 2013

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"There's no place on Earth that is changing faster--and no place where that change matters more--than Greenland." So said 350.org founder Bill McKibben, in a 2012 Rolling Stone magazine interview. As Earth Week 2013 draws to a close, I want to draw your attention to a unique effort to learn more about why Greenland is melting so fast--a crowd-funded research project that anyone can contribute to, which aims to answer the "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? The Dark Snow Project, the first-ever Greenland expedition relying on crowd-source funding, hopes to raise $150,000 to mount a field research campaign to find out. The project is the brainchild of Dr. Jason Box, Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and one of the world's leading experts on Greenland's glaciers. He has set up a website called darksnowproject.org to help raise the funds for the field campaign, and has raised about half of the needed amount as of mid-April.


Figure 1. Over the course of several years, turbulent water overflow from a large melt lake carved this 60-foot-deep (18.3 meter-deep) canyon in Greenland's Ice Sheet (note people near left edge for scale). Image credit: Ian Joughin, University of Washington.

2012: Unprecedented melting in Greenland
Watching the weather events of 2012 over Greenland made all seasoned climate watchers a little queasy. The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and the ice melt season of 2012 gave notice that an epic melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet may be underway. According to NOAA's 2012 Arctic Report Card, the duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2012 was the longest since satellite observations began in 1979, and the total amount of summer melting was nearly double the previous record, set in 2010 (satellite records of melting go back to 1979.) A rare, near-ice sheet-wide surface melt event melted 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet on July 11 - 12. While a similar melt event at the summit occurred 1889, but the 1889 event has no basis in the instrumental record from coastal Greenland. It's instead likely that 2012 was Greenland's warmest summer in at least 863 years, since the medieval warm period (see http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 and http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=725). The incredibly warm temperatures have been blamed on highly unusual atmospheric circulation and jet stream changes, which were also responsible for 2012's unusually wet summer weather in England. It would not be a surprise if this sort of summer began occurring more often, since temperatures on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been rising six times faster than the global average during the past twenty years. A May 2013 Geophysical Research Letters paper by McGrath et al., "Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications", concluded that by 2025, there is a 50% chance of ice sheet-wide melt events happening annually. The ice sheet reached its darkest value on record in 2012. The darkened surface was due to below average summer snow, soot particles from pollution and forest fires, and record melting. A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown, which is why Dr. Box is determined to find out, via the Dark Snow Project.


Figure 2. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Greenland causing 25% of global sea level rise
In a landmark study published in November 2012 in Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories reported that the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica has tripled since the 1990s, with Greenland contributing more than twice as much to global sea level rise than Antarctica. The study, "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance", found that the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011. The remainder of the rise was due to expansion of the water due to heating of the oceans, melting of mountain glaciers, and unsustainable pumping of ground water. Said co-author Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "The pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s." As of 2011, Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise on its own had risen to 20 - 25%, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters on 1 June 2012. If the current exponential ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022, the researchers said. Many sea level rise researchers expect global sea level to rise by about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100. During the 20th century, global sea level rise was about 0.18 meters (7 inches.)


Figure 3. Monthly smoothed (purple) and unsmoothed (blue) values of the total mass lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gigatons, Gt) from measurements by the GRACE satellites between March 2002-September 2012. An approximate equivalent global sea level rise figure is on the right axis. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. Image credit: 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Will Antarctica be more important than Greenland for sea level rise?
Although melting from Greenland is currently raising global sea level by about a factor of two more than Antarctica melting is, that situation may change later this century. A 2013 study by Dahl-Jensen et al. looked at a new ice core drilled from the bottom-most depths of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core suggests that the ice in Greenland may have partially survived the warm Eemian period before the Ice Age, approximately 118,000 - 126,000 years ago, when Greenland temperatures were 5- 8°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Global sea level during the Eemian was 4 - 8 meters (13 - 26 ft) higher than the present sea level, and the scientists estimated that melting from Greenland was responsible for 2 meters (6.6 ft) of this sea level rise. This implies that Antarctica was responsible for 50 - 75% of global sea level rise during the Eemian, and thus we might expect Antarctica to take over as the dominant source of sea level rise later this century, when global temperatures may to rise to levels similar to those experienced during the Eemian.

Related posts
Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July (July 25, 2012)
Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (July 18, 2012)
Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt (May, 2012)
Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

Dr. Jason Box's blog on Greenland and the Dark Snow Project is at http://www.meltfactor.org.

The http://www.greenlandmelting.com/ website looks like a great resource for following this year's melt progression in Greenland.


Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and 350.org founder Bill McKibben plug the Darksnow project in this January 2013 video by Peter Sinclair. There's some impressive footage of the record Greenland snow melt of summer 2012 sweeping away a 20-ton tractor that was attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland. The driver escaped unharmed.

Support the Dark Snow Project
One of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to support the Dark Snow Project. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Dark Snow Project Expedition Plan 2013
Prepare and gather science equipment including a field spectrometer, snow and ice coring device, and snow metrics kit.

Travel to Iqualuit, on Baffin Island, Nunavut from home locales in California, Ohio, Michigan, Vermont and rendezvous with Dash-6 "Twin Otter" ski-equipped airplane and flight crew.

Organize cold weather survival kit.

Ferry team from Iqualuit to Kangerlussuaq, Greenland.

Fly to and land at sampling sites high on the inland ice sheet.

At each site collect snow samples from a snow pit and obtain snow cores to a minimum depth of the previous year's snow surface, and record snow properties.

Transport of team and snow samples to Greenland's capital Nuuk, where the team will rest after hustling at field sites.

Return to Iqualuit, then to respective home locales to start the data analysis and reporting phase of campaign.

Jeff Masters

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
846 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

NCC075-281500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FA.Y.0033.130428T1246Z-130428T1500Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GRAHAM NC-
846 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN...
GRAHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 845 AM EDT...A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY. RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BETWEEN AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN SINCE 745 AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE GEORGIA TENNESSEE LINE WILL TRACK ACROSS GRAHAM THROUGH
MID MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH TO INCH.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ROBBINSVILLE...FONTANA VILLAGE... AND SANTEETLAH LAKE.

MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION AND CLOSELY WATCH FOR WATER ACROSS LOW
LYING AREAS ALONG COOLOSKA...JACKSON AND MASSEY
BRANCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG JIMMY DAVIS...JACKSON AND SNOWBIRD ROADS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting yonzabam:
Just did some googling on Atlantic named storms in June and was surprised to find they're rarer than I thought.

Tropical storms average one every other year, while hurricanes are one every 7.5 years. Last year, there were two tropical storms in May, and one of them was the strongest pre-June storm ever to make a US landfall.

It's logical that global warming could cause the hurricane season to lengthen.

1887 had 2 May tropical cyclones, a late November cyclone, and two December cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting indianrivguy:


Casual day today Marvin.. breakfast with a lady friend, afternoon with my sister. Then getting prepared for trying to sell our school board into bringing a marine science curriculum into Martin County schools, and then our protest rally in Rockledge Weds against fertilizer.

Stand up to Big Fertilizer, Stand up for Indian River Lagoon.

We were successful in Tallahassee at the Environmental Regulatory Commission.. of a sorts. The delayed their vote until June, so we have time to go back at them. I beat them up HARD about the cancer they are about to force upon our children. They could not look me in the eyes... I will WU mail you what Linda Young, Director of the Florida Clean Water Network had to say... so heads up:)
Thanks for what you're doing!

I was a student at FIT for a couple years, and really came to love coastal east central Florida. I love to hike and quickly found so many beautiful places to explore from Canaveral national shore down to Sebastian Inlet.

The "riverside" of the barrier islands are extremely diverse. Once got stung by a stingray while walking out in the water to get closer to a pod of dolphins lol.

I have noticed the malevolent effect of humanity in the region though, which is disturbing considering how unique of an area that is in Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:
Just did some googling on Atlantic named storms in June and was surprised to find they're rarer than I thought.

Tropical storms average one every other year, while hurricanes are one every 7.5 years. Last year, there were two tropical storms in May, and one of them was the strongest pre-June storm ever to make a US landfall.

It's logical that global warming could cause the hurricane season to lengthen.
now thats a good point there..i also was wondering IF GW is real would they be adding months to the hurricane season officially?....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Just did some googling on Atlantic named storms in June and was surprised to find they're rarer than I thought.

Tropical storms average one every other year, while hurricanes are one every 7.5 years. Last year, there were two tropical storms in May, and one of them was the strongest pre-June storm ever to make a US landfall.

It's logical that global warming could cause the hurricane season to lengthen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morning. Things that make you go hmmm....

I love new math. Only in America can a gvt agency get away with rounding numbers the wrong way. Since there is a climate fight going on, I will again ask the question.. why the heck cant we just put in a decimal and make it correct?

[snip]
Basically, what JB is clearly unaware of--and in his anti-government fervor is far too quick to jump to erroneous conclusions about--is that the whole numbers displayed on any station's F-6 data pages have already been rounded up or down from the underlying data, while departure calculations are based on the actual numbers in the underlying data.

Look at a non-weather example and you'll see why there appears to be discrepancy where none really exists. Take the following seemingly nonsensical equation:

2 plus 2 = 5

Wrong, no? JB might say that's evidence that some serious hanky-panky is going on. But once you realize that was simply the whole number representation of the following equation, you understand:

2.4 plus 2.3 = 4.7

Bastardi is looking at the rounded top equation while ignoring that the bottom one exists, and leaping to the assumption that something evil is going on. Furthermore, he's just talking nonsense when he says, "Everytime I see a rounding, its to a higher number," for a glance at any of the F-6 pages will show roughly the same number of temperatures rounded down as rounded up--exactly as one might expect.

You'd think that sometime during JB's meteorological education, he would have covered this kind of stuff. Guess not... ;-)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Morning peeps. Another cold shot coming for the plains and east?
Maybe not so bad for the nation's center, but it doesn't look too toasty for the southeast next week, no...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:Post# 821


Casual day today Marvin.. breakfast with a lady friend, afternoon with my sister. Then getting prepared for trying to sell our school board into bringing a marine science curriculum into Martin County schools, and then our protest rally in Rockledge Weds against fertilizer.

Stand up to Big Fertilizer, Stand up for Indian River Lagoon.

We were successful in Tallahassee at the Environmental Regulatory Commission.. of a sorts. The delayed their vote until June, so we have time to go back at them. I beat them up HARD about the cancer they are about to force upon our children. They could not look me in the eyes... I will WU mail you what Linda Young, Director of the Florida Clean Water Network had to say... so heads up:)


Hammer down!!
They have no conscious..
June won't help them..
Good luck today with everything..
I'll be looking for the WU mail and thanks for the Link..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Morning peeps. Another cold shot coming for the plains and east?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


Mornin' Marty..
Whats up this am??
Anything?


Casual day today Marvin.. breakfast with a lady friend, afternoon with my sister. Then getting prepared for trying to sell our school board into bringing a marine science curriculum into Martin County schools, and then our protest rally in Rockledge Weds against fertilizer.

Stand up to Big Fertilizer, Stand up for Indian River Lagoon.

We were successful in Tallahassee at the Environmental Regulatory Commission.. of a sorts. The delayed their vote until June, so we have time to go back at them. I beat them up HARD about the cancer they are about to force upon our children. They could not look me in the eyes... I will WU mail you what Linda Young, Director of the Florida Clean Water Network had to say... so heads up:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:


....the sun has gone down and the moon has come up,
and long ago somebody left with the cup.
but he's driving and striving and hugging the turns.
and thinking of someone for whom. he. still. burns.

:)

Going the Distance


Cake..In the morning..
Marty your gonna have a good day.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Quoting pcola57:


Happy belated B'Day wunder..
I learned about shots along time ago..
I don't do alcohol anymore..
Dr. says nada.. :)


yeah I learnt years too but normally they were not mixed with rum and 6 different vodkias and and a few others that I don't really remember at this time
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9560
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Moon is up here.


....the sun has gone down and the moon has come up,
and long ago somebody left with the cup.
but he's driving and striving and hugging the turns.
and thinking of someone for whom. he. still. burns.

:)

Going the Distance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hmm well rather not speak as cayman as a whole but for myself I had a wonderful birthday but darn NO MORE Birthday Shots for a very very long while


Happy belated B'Day wunder..
I learned about shots along time ago..
I don't do alcohol anymore..
Dr. says nada.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Moon is up here.

yep and the sun here
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9560
Quoting pcola57:


I know right?
Lol..
It's a cool one though.. :)



Moring to you wunder..
How are the Cayman's this am..?
Are they still located where they were yesterday??

hmm well rather not speak as cayman as a whole but for myself I had a wonderful birthday but darn NO MORE Birthday Shots for a very very long while
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9560
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Moon is up here.


Here Ya Go Aussie..



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning early guys whats up

The Moon is up here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


aaaaarrrrhhhhh that's to bright. Where are my sunglasses. LOL

Hey pcola.


I know right?
Lol..
It's a cool one though.. :)

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning early guys whats up


Moring to you wunder..
How are the Cayman's this am..?
Are they still located where they were yesterday??
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
morning early guys whats up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9560
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning Aussie.. :)



aaaaarrrrhhhhh that's to bright. Where are my sunglasses. LOL

Hey pcola.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Did any of those 15 Tornadoes damage any houses or businesses?

Good Morning everyone on the other side of the biggest pond on earth.


Good Morning Aussie.. :)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The SPC has highlighted a severe weather risk for Day 4 (Wednesday).



In their discussion they said it looks similar to April 17 but with weaker shear. The 17th was a moderate risk day that some thought could get upgraded to high risk but ended up being mostly a bust.


Did any of those 15 Tornadoes damage any houses or businesses?

Good Morning everyone on the other side of the biggest pond on earth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:
Hey Marvin, Geoff and Doug, good morning!


Mornin' Marty..
Whats up this am??
Anything?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morning. Things that make you go hmmm....


Hmmm.
Morning Doug..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Hey Marvin, Geoff and Doug, good morning!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JB this morning. Things that make you go hmmm....

I love new math. Only in America can a gvt agency get away with rounding numbers the wrong way. Since there is a climate fight going on, I will again ask the question.. why the heck cant we just put in a decimal and make it correct?



the normal mean in Chicago today is 53.5. As you can see by the data



The high was 4 above normal, the low, normal, which gives us a mean of 2 above normal, but they round it up to 3.

If I saw some cases ( I was on this in NYC in Feb) where its rounded down,then I would trust it.But I have never seen a case rounded down and what is worse ITS AWAY FROM THE ACTUAL NUMBER







WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
.................................................. ................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 68 259 PM 87 1986 64 4 54
MINIMUM 43 507 AM 29 1945 43 0 35
AVERAGE 56 53 3 45






By why would you round it AWAY FROM THE ACTUAL ANSWER WHICH IS 2 ABOVE NORMAL.



Its astounding. Look at that: 4 divided by 2 equals 3?



I understand all the different methods of doing this, but this is absurd. Everytime I see a rounding, its to a higher number.

The normal mean in Chicago today is 53.5 So that SHOULD BE ROUNDED TO 54 if we are going to play this game. There is no way when the high is 4 above normal and the low is normal, you should come out with 3 as the mean . How someone thinks thats a good idea is beyond me.



And No , I dont trust that all these are double checked correctly and come out in the wash. Can you blame me?



He would have the time to do an independant analysis of this to find out how many stations due to rounding errors up are warmer than they should be?
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Good Morning to you Geoff..

Miami, FL (KAMX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Miami NWS Disco Excerpt

AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOWS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND AN
UPPER RIDGE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MORE DIFFERENCES NOW
FOR THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS THE
SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT...AND NO LONGER DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS THEN BRINGS IN
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF STILL BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST...AND
DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVED EAST...WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES. SO THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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Good Morning All..
Pensacola NAS (KNPA)
Currently 66.9 degrees..
A sticky 100% rh..Dew at 67..
Winds 4 from the South..
A slight misty/fog this am..

Webcam from the beach needs wiping off..



Regional..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Watching this little feature here..

Houston, TX (KHGX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
Quoting pcola57:Post# 536


With this much moisture moving, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a cut-off Low in the GOM somewhere..


Still got that gut feeling..
(I hate Quoting myself.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
going to be a wet day in the southeast huh......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Good Morning folks! looks like the rainy season has begun here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting Grothar:

Hei, Xandra. (Hvis du er her) Nå bloggen skriver til meg på norsk. LOL

Grothar, nu är jag här men det verkar inte du vara ;) Sover du? Här är lite musik från Sverige att vakna till,


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Quoting Jedkins01:



I suspect the 53 degree reading was do to very dry air and calm winds or maybe some anomalous upper low/cold pool bringing colder air to the surface from a thunderstorm, I don't see how it would be possible any other way. I've heard of rare summer fronts in Florida but every time they occur from what I'm aware of it only means a drop in rain chances for a few days along with actually much hotter temps.

Highs could fall into the 70's providing a strong enough frontal passage with lows in the 50's but naturally I'm going to doubt it until there is consist model agreement on it happening. the CPC seems to be going a bit premature by showing such dramatically below average temps when there isn't even model agreement or consistency to support what is already rare for this time of year.

Again, if models become in agreement with consistency it needs to be taken more literally but its not at this point yet.
Looking at the record, Orlando has been in the 40s as late as mid-May. In fact, the record low for every day in May is in either the 40s or 50s. Too, Orlando has even experienced several days in May where the high couldn't get out of the 60s. Bottom line: while such cold is unusual, it wouldn't be unprecedented. Having said that, though, I agree with you that it's unlikely to happen. With the sun more than 2/3 of the way toward the summer solstice and snow cover virtually non-existent in the Eastern US (just a thin sliver of the northern tier of states has any left), any air mass will be greatly moderated before extending deep into Florida. And as you state, the lack of model support says that, for the moment at least, this probably won't happen.

(Then again, with this year's wacky weather, and with that cold pool sitting over the Eastern US for most of the past two months, just anything is possible, no?)
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Good morning everyone!

Good evening Mr. Aussie!
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Good morning. The SPC has highlighted a severe weather risk for Day 4 (Wednesday).



In their discussion they said it looks similar to April 17 but with weaker shear. The 17th was a moderate risk day that some thought could get upgraded to high risk but ended up being mostly a bust.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Some scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today. For the ladder part of this week,a big increase in moisture is expected so stay tuned for more information about that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST SUN APR 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW SUPPORTED BY A 1006
MILLIBAR LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES
INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALSO
CONTINUE TO INDUCE AND MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...LEADING TO A
LOOSENING OF LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS DECREASING THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MOST OF THE ISLANDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING... WITH LESSER CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL HOWEVER BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER MOISTURE PATTERN
WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES AS A DEEP LAYERED TONGUE
TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE
STILL LOOKING FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND BETTER CHANCE FOR EARLY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. MORE TO COME ON THIS AS
THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST 28/12Z
AND ACROSS TJPS BETWEEN 28/18Z-22Z DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT...
INCREASING TO 10-15KT AFTER 28/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...BOTH OF THE BUOYS 41043 AND 41044 INDICATED THAT THE NORTHEAST
SWELLS HAD PEAKED...BUT WERE STILL GENERATING SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 9 FEET
AROUND 15 SECS. THE SAN JUAN BUOY ALSO SHOWED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET AROUND
16 SECS. BASED ON THE RECENT DATA THESE SWELLS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. IN ADDITION THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AT
LEAST UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS AND HEIGHTENED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN JUAN OFFICE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 76 / 20 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
...let's do a Science

Puerto Rico Teams Take Top Spots at 20th NASA Great Moonbuggy Race

NASA today declared the winners of the 20th NASA Great Moonbuggy Race at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center in Huntsville, Ala. Team 1 from Teodoro Aguilar Mora Vocational High School of Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, won first place in the high school division; racers from the University of Puerto Rico at Humacao claimed the college-division trophy.

The winning teams outraced more than 89 teams from 23 states, Puerto Rico, Canada, India, Germany, Mexico and Russia. Approximately 600 student drivers, engineers and mechanics -- plus their team advisors and cheering sections -- gathered April 26-27 for the 20th "space race."

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/technology/moonbuggy/m oonbuggy_2013_results.html
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Thunderstorm woke me up. Will keep an eye out for training...

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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, Central FL (and certainly South FL) will not see chilly temperatures from this next front. As Jedkins01 said, it will be a drop in humidity and slightly cooler. I predict lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for a night or two and highs 79F - 83F. In May, it is not impossible to get below 50F here, but it is RARE. According to the record, we've been recorded as low as 53F even in June (in Orlando), which I cannot imagine.



I suspect the 53 degree reading was do to very dry air and calm winds or maybe some anomalous upper low/cold pool bringing colder air to the surface from a thunderstorm, I don't see how it would be possible any other way. I've heard of rare summer fronts in Florida but every time they occur from what I'm aware of it only means a drop in rain chances for a few days along with actually much hotter temps.

Highs could fall into the 70's providing a strong enough frontal passage with lows in the 50's but naturally I'm going to doubt it until there is consist model agreement on it happening. the CPC seems to be going a bit premature by showing such dramatically below average temps when there isn't even model agreement or consistency to support what is already rare for this time of year.

Again, if models become in agreement with consistency it needs to be taken more literally but its not at this point yet.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
786. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:32 PM EST April 28 2013
==========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, A tropical low was situated approximately 830 km east southeast of Port Moresby and 1,050 km northeast of Cairns and moving slowly in a south southwest direction.

The tropical low is expected to develop a west southwest track towards the far northeast Queensland coast, while deepening, during Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: High
Wednesday: High
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
784. beell

Hail yes.

SPC may add a risk area on the Day 2 along the boundary centered over the MO/IA border for Monday.

Today's Day 3:


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY FROM THE
ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE A SLOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
U.S. DISTURBANCE WEAKENS FURTHER. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THIS
REGION. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST/MO RIVER
VALLEY AREA. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THESE AREAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WIDE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AMONGST THE NAM/GFS AND ENSEMBLES IS
SUCH THAT IT APPEARS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE EVEN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS FORECAST RANGE.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm suspicious that Central and South Florida will experience much of it besides a drop in temps by a few degrees and drier air.


Yeah, Central FL (and certainly South FL) will not see chilly temperatures from this next front. As Jedkins01 said, it will be a drop in humidity and slightly cooler. I predict lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for a night or two and highs 79F - 83F. In May, it is not impossible to get below 50F here, but it is RARE. According to the record, we've been recorded as low as 53F even in June (in Orlando), which I cannot imagine.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.