March 2013 the globe's 10th warmest March; a billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on April 24, 2013

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March 2013 was the globe's 10th warmest March since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 9th warmest March on record. The year-to-date period of January - March has been the 8th warmest such period on record. March 2013 global land temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 9th warmest on record. March 2013 was the 337th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 12th or 8th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during March 2013 was the 16th largest in the 47-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March 2013 in his March 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. He notes that one nation set an all-time heat record: on March 6th, Navrongo, Ghana reached 43.0°C (109.4°F), the warmest temperature reliably ever measured in the country (for any month.)


Figure 1. March 2013 was the 2nd coldest winter in the U.K. since 1910, exceeded only by March 1962. In this photo taken by wunderphotographer tonylathes on March 24, 2013, we see one of March's heavy snowstorms that affected Wardlow Village in Derbyshire, United Kingdom.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for March 2013, the 10th warmest March for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), a large-scale climate pattern that can influence temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, set a record low for March. This negative phase was associated with frigid Arctic air spilling southward into the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes, leading to unusually cold conditions in the Eastern U.S., most of Europe, and northern Siberia.This phase of the AO also contributed to much warmer than average and even record warm temperatures in northeastern Canada and southeastern Greenland. A large swath of China and several regions in central and northern Africa in the 0°–20°N latitude belt were also record warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

First U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2013: March 18 - 20 severe weather outbreak
Two billion-dollar weather disasters occurred globally in March, bringing the 2013 total to five, according to the March 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker AON Benfield. The five billion-dollar weather disasters for 2013 so far:

1) Flooding in Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
2) Flooding in Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
3) Winter weather in Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
4) Drought in Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 3/31, $1.71 billion
5) Severe weather in the Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $1 billion

The first billion-dollar weather disaster in the U.S. was a severe weather outbreak that began on March 18, featuring a long-lived squall line of severe thunderstorms called a "derecho" that dropped hail up to softball size from Louisiana to South Carolina. Mississippi was hardest hit, with up to 60,000 insurance claims. Ten tornadoes touched down and two fatalities were reported during the outbreak. The U.S. has averaged 4.4 billion-dollar weather disasters per year from 1980 - 2012, but experienced 25 in the two-year period 2011 - 2012.

The deadliest March weather disaster was an outbreak of severe weather that swept across parts of eastern Bangladesh on March 22. The outbreak included a tornado that struck the regions of Sadar, Akhaura and Bijoynagar in Brahmanbaria district. At least 35 people were killed and 388 injured.


Figure 3. Hail up to the size of tennis balls fell on McComb, Mississippi, as documented by wunderphotographer sirencall On March 18, 2013. The hailstorm was part of a severe weather outbreak that gave the U.S. its first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2013.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 12th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during March 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer. The large majority of the El Niño models predict neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C below average as of April 22, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since March 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 5th lowest March extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during March reached its fifth lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 10th consecutive March and 142nd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen nine of the ten lowest March extents in the satellite record.

Jeff Masters

Storm in the gulf (myvalleylil)
Storm in the gulf
Do you like my hat! (sandiquiz)
For the third time in as many weeks, we have snow. Luckily not as much in this area as further north, where there are 15 foot snowdrifts in Cumbria, North West UK.
Do you like my hat!
Freezing Fog on Crocus (WurzelDave)
In the fog was small patches of freezing fog.
Freezing Fog on Crocus

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Finally working for me again, kept locking up on pages 2 & 3 (50 comments). Anyway, up to 45 and slowly clearing out. Another .7" in the guage. Some puddles with last weeks 8" still soaking the ground. Flood levels on MS peaking today, all below the IL river. N of that levees and sandbagging held, no cuts in the ag levees that were overtopped. Birds looking good for sweep of Nats (sorry DC area bloggers) and winning road trip, Blues in the playoffs, and morels should be popping with 70s coming for weekend, not much to complain about (since I'm not a farmer).
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Quoting txjac:


I've never seen an amber alert come out by the National Weather Service ...is that a normal thing?
amber alerts are broadcasted over all forms of media tv and radio same in canada as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting VR46L:


I don't know !

But From what I have noticed the more pink on a map the more impact it has For the People who solely believes Man is responsible for GW....
There is no doubt about it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:


The anomaly map uses the period 1980 - 2010 as the "normal", whereas the percentile map references temperatures to the entire period of record, back to 1880. Either are valuable, depending upon whether you want to compare things to what people are used to (the globally-warmed climate of the past 30 years) or want to look at the long-term picture (how does this year rank compared to the entire 134-year period of record.) NCDC just started producing the percentile maps, and I think they are more interesting than the old anomaly maps.

Jeff Masters
Why not post both since the temp anomaly pic is the one people are familiar with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
213. txjac
Quoting Doppler22:
Idk of this was posted already but here it is: CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY IN TEXAS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
149 PM CDT WED APR 24 2013

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS
DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE LOCKHART POLICE DEPARTMENT IS SEARCHING FOR PAMELA WARREN...
WHITE... FEMALE... 14 YEARS OLD... DATE OF BIRTH OCTOBER 18TH...
1998... HEIGHT 5 FEET... 11 INCHES TALL... WEIGHT 152... BROWN
HAIR... BROWN EYES... WEARING A BLUE AERO JACKET... BURNT ORANGE
SHORTS WITH A CAST ON HER LEFT HAND... AND ALYSSA NEAUR...
WHITE... FEMALE... 12 YEARS OLD... DATE OF BIRTH... JUNE 26TH...
2000... HEIGHT 5 FEET... 4 INCHES TALL... WEIGHT 130 POUNDS...
BROWN HAIR... BLUE EYES... WEARING BLUE HURLEY JACKET... AND GRAY
BASKETBALL SHORTS.

POLICE ARE LOOKING FOR AN UNKNOWN... WHITE... MALE... WITH BROWN
SHOULDER LENGTH HAIR.

THE SUSPECT IS DRIVING A GRAY EXTENDED CAB PICKUP TRUCK WITH
BLACK BUMPERS. THE SUSPECT WAS LAST HEARD FROM AT 700 CARVER
STREET... LOCKHART... TX.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THESE CHILDREN ARE IN GRAVE OR
IMMEDIATE DANGER.



I've never seen an amber alert come out by the National Weather Service ...is that a normal thing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i like the new map myself
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
211. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting nymore:
He has always used the Temp Anomaly one except for the past two months. Why the change?


The anomaly map uses the period 1980 - 2010 as the "normal", whereas the percentile map references temperatures to the entire period of record, back to 1880. Either are valuable, depending upon whether you want to compare things to what people are used to (the globally-warmed climate of the past 30 years) or want to look at the long-term picture (how does this year rank compared to the entire 134-year period of record.) NCDC just started producing the percentile maps, and I think they are more interesting than the old anomaly maps.

Jeff Masters
National Weather Service Roadmap 2.0 leads the way to a Weather-Ready Nation

Date Posted: April 24, 2013

On April 24, 2013, NOAA’s National Weather Service, in partnership with the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO), released The Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap 2.0.  The updated Roadmap blends an understanding of social and physical sciences and lends itself to building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather and water events. After achieving the goals of the Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap, NWS will empower emergency managers, first responders, government officials, businesses, and the public to make faster, smarter decisions to save lives and protect livelihoods.

“The NWS recognizes that issuing excellent forecasts and warnings may not always be enough to save lives,” said NWS Director Louis W. Uccellini.  “The Weather-Ready Nation initiative is first and foremost to save lives and protecting livelihoods by providing useful, relevant, actionable information on for critical decision support services.”
...
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Quoting Gearsts:
Increiblemente me quede sin nada de lluvia y si miras el radar vez q Aguadilla es casi el unico pueblo q no esta lloviendo -_-


Wow. Eso es increible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST WED APR 24 2013

PRC029-037-053-069-077-085-087-089-103-119-242130 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0022.130424T1831Z-130424T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-FAJARDO PR-
LUQUILLO PR-HUMACAO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
231 PM AST WED APR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CEIBA...NAGUABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...FAJARDO...
LUQUILLO...HUMACAO...RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 229 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS
WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST
530 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1842 6576 1839 6574 1837 6568 1839 6561
1835 6562 1834 6561 1832 6562 1831 6561
1832 6562 1821 6561 1819 6563 1820 6566
1817 6569 1817 6573 1822 6590 1845 6590

$$

AAS
Increiblemente me quede sin nada de lluvia y si miras el radar vez q Aguadilla es casi el unico pueblo q no esta lloviendo -_-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Doppler22:
Idk of this was posted already but here it is: CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY IN TEXAS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
149 PM CDT WED APR 24 2013

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS
DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE LOCKHART POLICE DEPARTMENT IS SEARCHING FOR PAMELA WARREN...
WHITE... FEMALE... 14 YEARS OLD... DATE OF BIRTH OCTOBER 18TH...
1998... HEIGHT 5 FEET... 11 INCHES TALL... WEIGHT 152... BROWN
HAIR... BROWN EYES... WEARING A BLUE AERO JACKET... BURNT ORANGE
SHORTS WITH A CAST ON HER LEFT HAND... AND ALYSSA NEAUR...
WHITE... FEMALE... 12 YEARS OLD... DATE OF BIRTH... JUNE 26TH...
2000... HEIGHT 5 FEET... 4 INCHES TALL... WEIGHT 130 POUNDS...
BROWN HAIR... BLUE EYES... WEARING BLUE HURLEY JACKET... AND GRAY
BASKETBALL SHORTS.

POLICE ARE LOOKING FOR AN UNKNOWN... WHITE... MALE... WITH BROWN
SHOULDER LENGTH HAIR.

THE SUSPECT IS DRIVING A GRAY EXTENDED CAB PICKUP TRUCK WITH
BLACK BUMPERS. THE SUSPECT WAS LAST HEARD FROM AT 700 CARVER
STREET... LOCKHART... TX.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THESE CHILDREN ARE IN GRAVE OR
IMMEDIATE DANGER.



I don't want to sound facetious regarding a child abduction incident . . . but I have never in my life seen a 14 year old girl that was 5' 11" tall. 5' 4" is awfully tall for a 12 year old girl, too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
205. VR46L
Quoting nymore:
He has always used the Temp Anomaly one except for the past two months. Why the change?


I don't know !

But From what I have noticed the more pink on a map the more impact it has For the People who solely believes Man is responsible for GW....
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like FL is getting sandwiched. Very active weather for the Southern & Southeastern US.





uh oh... not good.

Let me check on that a little more to depth..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Idk of this was posted already but here it is: CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY IN TEXAS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
149 PM CDT WED APR 24 2013

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS
DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE LOCKHART POLICE DEPARTMENT IS SEARCHING FOR PAMELA WARREN...
WHITE... FEMALE... 14 YEARS OLD... DATE OF BIRTH OCTOBER 18TH...
1998... HEIGHT 5 FEET... 11 INCHES TALL... WEIGHT 152... BROWN
HAIR... BROWN EYES... WEARING A BLUE AERO JACKET... BURNT ORANGE
SHORTS WITH A CAST ON HER LEFT HAND... AND ALYSSA NEAUR...
WHITE... FEMALE... 12 YEARS OLD... DATE OF BIRTH... JUNE 26TH...
2000... HEIGHT 5 FEET... 4 INCHES TALL... WEIGHT 130 POUNDS...
BROWN HAIR... BLUE EYES... WEARING BLUE HURLEY JACKET... AND GRAY
BASKETBALL SHORTS.

POLICE ARE LOOKING FOR AN UNKNOWN... WHITE... MALE... WITH BROWN
SHOULDER LENGTH HAIR.

THE SUSPECT IS DRIVING A GRAY EXTENDED CAB PICKUP TRUCK WITH
BLACK BUMPERS. THE SUSPECT WAS LAST HEARD FROM AT 700 CARVER
STREET... LOCKHART... TX.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THESE CHILDREN ARE IN GRAVE OR
IMMEDIATE DANGER.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
All of this GW talk is giving me a headache.


Never heard of that one. Hay fever, heat stroke, malnutrition, food poisoning, malaria and other assorted tropical diseases spreading northwards, southwards and upwards, but not headaches.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All of this GW talk is giving me a headache.

FL is getting squeezed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Levi32:


Percentiles give you a sense of what the departure from average actually means in a historical context. At first glance nobody knows what 5C below normal in northern Europe really means. Is that a "normal" anomaly that happens a lot? The percentiles will give you a sense of whether it's record-breaking or within usual variation.


Is the correct answer. The percentiles map shows that parts of Asia, Africa, Australia and South America had their warmest March on record, while no region had a coldest March on record.

Simple, really.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Percentiles give you a sense of what the departure from average actually means in a historical context. At first glance nobody knows what 5C above normal in SE Canada really means. Is that a "normal" anomaly that happens a lot? The percentiles will give you a sense of whether it's record-breaking or within usual variation.
He has always used the Temp Anomaly one except for the past two months. Why the change?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST WED APR 24 2013

PRC029-037-053-069-077-085-087-089-103-119-242130 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0022.130424T1831Z-130424T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-FAJARDO PR-
LUQUILLO PR-HUMACAO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
231 PM AST WED APR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CEIBA...NAGUABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...FAJARDO...
LUQUILLO...HUMACAO...RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 229 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS
WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST
530 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1842 6576 1839 6574 1837 6568 1839 6561
1835 6562 1834 6561 1832 6562 1831 6561
1832 6562 1821 6561 1819 6563 1820 6566
1817 6569 1817 6573 1822 6590 1845 6590

$$

AAS
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Quoting nymore:
Why would Jeff use the temperature percentiles global picture and not the actual temperature anomaly global picture. Here see if you can figure it out.

Percentiles



Temp Anomalies



I can only figure he hates the color blue

The two graphics are showing something slightly different. Regardless of the graphic, the information is the same - the temperature anomaly is the same number.

Some parts of the globe have very stable climates. Other parts of the globe have a more "noisy" pattern. NOAA/NCDC typically uses terciles to delineate areas of above/normal/below. This helps fit the raw anomaly number into a historical perspective... was it cold weather on the fringes of the historical values? Was it near the mean?

For areas of more stable weather, a 0.5C anomaly is more substantial than it would be for an area with variable weather, such as the temperate latitudes.

I would imagine that it has very little to do with the color scale and more to do with those concepts mentioned above.
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Quoting nymore:
Why would Jeff use the temperature percentiles global picture and not the actual temperature anomaly global picture. Here see if you can figure it out.

Percentiles



Temp Anomalies



I can only figure he hates the color blue


Percentiles give you a sense of what the departure from average actually means in a historical context. At first glance nobody knows what 5C above normal in SE Canada really means. Is that a "normal" anomaly that happens a lot? The percentiles will give you a sense of whether it's record-breaking or within usual variation.
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The 'range' is driven by the use of standard deviations when utilizing predictive modeling.
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193. yoboi
Quoting nymore:
Why would Jeff use the temperature percentiles global picture and not the actual temperature anomaly global picture. Here see if you can figure it out.

Percentiles



Temp Anomalies



I can only figure he hates the color blue


nice observation.........
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If these models verify then you can put the stamp on FL's rainy season starting next week. Looking like a very wet 6 months ahead for FLorida.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I agree about the spread not being the best thing to do as a forecaster. Is way better to have one number for each category.


Well it's much easier to say "We nailed it" That way.
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Why would Jeff use the temperature percentiles global picture and not the actual temperature anomaly global picture. Here see if you can figure it out.

Percentiles



Temp Anomalies



I can only figure he hates the color blue
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Mentioned this yesterday when the topic was first brought up on the blog. The orientation of the NAO is such that the anomalous ridging could be too far north to trap anything underneath the high. It will be interesting to see what happens for sure.


Yup, that was me who brought it up. It seems here lately that once we hit May the SW Atlantic gets active with some sort of tropical entity.

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Looks like FL is getting sandwiched. Very active weather for the Southern & Southeastern US.



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Quoting ScottLincoln:

And the point of your 30 words was a good one, and taken.
I'm not sure that Xandra meant the comment to prove you wrong, but was instead showing that a different dataset using the same baseline came to a slightly different answer. Would that not also be a relevant point? Perhaps a relevant point not deserving of a quip suggesting other motives?


Lol...wow.
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looks like some needed rain for texas tomorrow am..........
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Wow! They really go out on a limb to nail that forecast down don't they? Quite a spread.


I agree about the spread not being the best thing to do as a forecaster. Is way better to have one number for each category.
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Quoting Levi32:
I've uttered all of 30 words on the issue today.

And the point of your 30 words was a good one, and taken.
I'm not sure that Xandra meant the comment to prove you wrong, but was instead showing that a different dataset using the same baseline came to a slightly different answer. Would that not also be a relevant point? Perhaps a relevant point not deserving of a quip suggesting other motives?
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stay alert pcola.................."SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 138 PM CDT WED APR 24 2013 ALZ062>064-FLZ001>003-241930- INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-UPPER BALDWIN AL- COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-LOWER MOBILE AL- 138 PM CDT WED APR 24 2013 ...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BALDWIN AND SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...WESTERN SANTA ROSA AND NORTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...THROUGH 230 PM CDT... AT 132 PM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAY MINETTE TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WESTERN DAUPHIN ISLAND... EASTERN DAUPHIN ISLAND... CENTRAL DAUPHIN ISLAND... CODEN... GULF SHORES... MOLINO... THEODORE... BELLE FONTAINE... BAYOU LA BATRE... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 IN ALABAMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 66. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG MAY BLOW OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECT
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99 weathermanwannabe: ...I don't know how in the world they could take accurate ENSO data for this region in the 1800's and early 1900's unless they had ships (in an organized manner) taking SST temps over this period of time. Or, they were using some specific coastal/surf location from a fishing port or something like that located within what we now refer to as sectors 3 and 4.

"Sailors are a superstitious lot." Or rather they've a L O N G history of faithfully making whatever observations they could in hopes of being able to use that info to predict the weather, to predict the direction of travel one should take for smooth sailing and most importantly to avoid bad weather
A storm on land is annoying, a storm at sea is life-threatening.
Approaching the 20thCentury, there would have already been developed a well-established routine of taking scheduled time, position, wind, barometric, and temperature (both air and sea) readings, then entering them into the ships' logs.
Approaching the 20thCentury, there would have been far smaller ships than in a more modern era, and thus, far more ships carrying cargo.
Approaching the 20thCentury, there would have been a large number of ships trafficking between the western (North and South) American coastlines and the SpiceIslands.
Approaching the 20thCentury, there would have been no radio for ship-to-ship communications to provide weather warnings, and thus ships wouldn't have been shunted early onto other routes to avoid bad weather. ie The ships' area coverage would be even more complete in those yesteryears than it would be after the Titanic when nautical radios became mandatory for passenger ships and a cargo ship sinking about 10years later when nautical radios became mandatory for all large ships.

So basicly, the sheer numbers of (weather logs from) ships traveling during the era between the invention of nautical barometers and mandatory nautical radios would provide weather data that would remain unsurpassed until well into the satellite era.
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Quoting seminolesfan:
It sure is amusing to see all the "but how good are the proxies" and "can we really use this data or is it really just a good guess" arguments brought out by the same handles that paradoxically love tree based thermometers and pie in the sky modeling designed to 'prove' a hypothesis...

Seems like there is still a bit of confusion that needs cleared up there. We are actually talking about slightly different things.

1)The time scales are different.
With proxies such as tree rings, we can get a rough idea of temperature on climatic scales, meaning averaged over several years. This is valid for the area around the proxy location.
With the estimates of ENSO, it was indicating an ENSO value for every month.

2) The density of sampling points are likely different.
With the proxies, they are valid for the local area, but become more and more relevant for the globe as more proxies are added into the mix. The more independent techniques and the more sites around the globe, the better. Our estimates of global temperature, and understanding of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period, have evolved as more and more proxy data has become available with increasing validity.

If this ENSO estimate is derived from just a few sampling locations, caution must be taken. There does not appear to be any representation of the uncertainty present in the plot shown. It is not exactly meaningful to find a match between a frequency/amplitude in the past and one from a recent period when looking at that fine of a scale. We are not trying to monthly temperature anomalies from proxies that specifically. The global temperature datasets have become rather robust as analysis after analysis has produced similar results and reduced our uncertainty; I'm not sure that that is the case with this ENSO analysis.

I'm sure now you can see why these situations are not exactly comparable the way you originally suggested?
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol you never take a breath. This blog is relentless. I've uttered all of 30 words on the issue today.
------------------------------------------------- ----

Week 2 mean MSLP from the GFS ensembles illustrates the volatile pattern in the SW Atlantic, though the undoing of any potential subtropical development could be the blocking high being too far north to trap anything long enough.



Mentioned this yesterday when the topic was first brought up on the blog. The orientation of the NAO is such that the anomalous ridging could be too far north to trap anything underneath the high. It will be interesting to see what happens for sure.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
175. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Thats good news Mississippi considering this time of year for trouble your way..
Hope peaceful rain for you..
I hope that lightening stays over the water instead of hammering me here..



You stay safe Pcola !!

Theres a bit of nastiness with that front.... noticed South LA has had some nasty weather ..
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Do you happen to have a source for this picture?


Just a Facebook user sent it into Reed Timmer and 28Storms.com. I guess it's not "official", but seems to be plenty true.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting ScottLincoln:

All right Levi, you've made your point. It's been pointed out that they are different datasets and different baselines. It's not correct to compare different baselines without adjustment, and one must be careful with directly comparing specific values from different datasets, as they are calculated differently.
Let's all take a breath.


Lol you never take a breath. This blog is relentless. I've uttered all of 30 words on the issue today.
------------------------------------------------- ----

Week 2 mean MSLP from the GFS ensembles illustrates the volatile pattern in the SW Atlantic, though the undoing of any potential subtropical development could be the blocking high being too far north to trap anything long enough.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, the more convective storms were able to develop in SE Louisiana. We've had some nice rain up here in Hattiesburg, but very little thunder/lightning.


Thats good news Mississippi considering this time of year for trouble your way..
Hope peaceful rain for you..
I hope that lightening stays over the water instead of hammering me here..

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It sure is amusing to see all the "but how good are the proxies" and "can we really use this data or is it really just a good guess" arguments brought out by the same handles that paradoxically love tree based thermometers and pie in the sky modeling designed to 'prove' a hypothesis...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the NC State University forecast (13-17 / 7-10 / 3-6)


Wow! They really go out on a limb to nail that forecast down don't they? Quite a spread.
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Quoting Levi32:


Again, different dataset - GISS vs. CFSR. Don't be dense.

All right Levi, you've made your point. It's been pointed out that they are different datasets and different baselines. It's not correct to compare different baselines without adjustment, and one must be careful with directly comparing specific values from different datasets, as they are calculated differently.
Let's all take a breath.
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Here is the NC State University forecast (13-17 / 7-10 / 3-6)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.