March 2013 the globe's 10th warmest March; a billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on April 24, 2013

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March 2013 was the globe's 10th warmest March since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 9th warmest March on record. The year-to-date period of January - March has been the 8th warmest such period on record. March 2013 global land temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 9th warmest on record. March 2013 was the 337th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 12th or 8th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during March 2013 was the 16th largest in the 47-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March 2013 in his March 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. He notes that one nation set an all-time heat record: on March 6th, Navrongo, Ghana reached 43.0°C (109.4°F), the warmest temperature reliably ever measured in the country (for any month.)


Figure 1. March 2013 was the 2nd coldest winter in the U.K. since 1910, exceeded only by March 1962. In this photo taken by wunderphotographer tonylathes on March 24, 2013, we see one of March's heavy snowstorms that affected Wardlow Village in Derbyshire, United Kingdom.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for March 2013, the 10th warmest March for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), a large-scale climate pattern that can influence temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, set a record low for March. This negative phase was associated with frigid Arctic air spilling southward into the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes, leading to unusually cold conditions in the Eastern U.S., most of Europe, and northern Siberia.This phase of the AO also contributed to much warmer than average and even record warm temperatures in northeastern Canada and southeastern Greenland. A large swath of China and several regions in central and northern Africa in the 0°–20°N latitude belt were also record warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

First U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2013: March 18 - 20 severe weather outbreak
Two billion-dollar weather disasters occurred globally in March, bringing the 2013 total to five, according to the March 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker AON Benfield. The five billion-dollar weather disasters for 2013 so far:

1) Flooding in Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
2) Flooding in Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
3) Winter weather in Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
4) Drought in Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 3/31, $1.71 billion
5) Severe weather in the Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $1 billion

The first billion-dollar weather disaster in the U.S. was a severe weather outbreak that began on March 18, featuring a long-lived squall line of severe thunderstorms called a "derecho" that dropped hail up to softball size from Louisiana to South Carolina. Mississippi was hardest hit, with up to 60,000 insurance claims. Ten tornadoes touched down and two fatalities were reported during the outbreak. The U.S. has averaged 4.4 billion-dollar weather disasters per year from 1980 - 2012, but experienced 25 in the two-year period 2011 - 2012.

The deadliest March weather disaster was an outbreak of severe weather that swept across parts of eastern Bangladesh on March 22. The outbreak included a tornado that struck the regions of Sadar, Akhaura and Bijoynagar in Brahmanbaria district. At least 35 people were killed and 388 injured.


Figure 3. Hail up to the size of tennis balls fell on McComb, Mississippi, as documented by wunderphotographer sirencall On March 18, 2013. The hailstorm was part of a severe weather outbreak that gave the U.S. its first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2013.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 12th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during March 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer. The large majority of the El Niño models predict neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C below average as of April 22, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since March 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 5th lowest March extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during March reached its fifth lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 10th consecutive March and 142nd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen nine of the ten lowest March extents in the satellite record.

Jeff Masters

Storm in the gulf (myvalleylil)
Storm in the gulf
Do you like my hat! (sandiquiz)
For the third time in as many weeks, we have snow. Luckily not as much in this area as further north, where there are 15 foot snowdrifts in Cumbria, North West UK.
Do you like my hat!
Freezing Fog on Crocus (WurzelDave)
In the fog was small patches of freezing fog.
Freezing Fog on Crocus

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


to see an exodus this hurricane season.

A very high chance in Florida for mass evacuation, I really hope people listen, prepare and act!


Well the evacuations may not be that major if the storm catches people by surprise: like Charley (2004).
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 414 Comments: 677
Quoting hurricaneben:


please don't even think about that...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


to see an exodus this hurricane season.

A very high chance in Florida for mass evacuation, I really hope people listen, prepare and act!


Well the evacuations may not be that major if the storm catches people by surprise: like Charley (2004).
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 414 Comments: 677
Most girls BB teams have two or three 5'10" or taller here in IL, almost always one. As I said, not majority, but certainly not rare. There are at least two I can think of at moment in my daughter's graduating class that are least 5'10 and have been since Jr. High (14). Three now that I think of it, out of approx. 30 girls in her class.

Spfld and StL reached 50 , we topped at 49, didn't clear as quickly I guess.
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Quoting luvtogolf:


If science says so, then I guess I've been lied to by my faith community for the past 60 years.


Probably not so much intentionally lied to, more likely the people telling you their version of how things happened were just wrong.

Most religious books were written by people hundreds of years ago when people knew little about how the word actually worked.

We can find places where they thought the Sun revolved around the Earth and where they thought the Earth was flat.

Member Since: September 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
Quoting psetas23:
neutral hurricane season look out florida


And the gulf coast. Both FL and Gulf see no differences in landfall frequency during cold/neutral events. The east coast (Georgia N ward) however sees a drastic reduction of landfalls during neutral years thus increasing the amount of storms heading towards the GC and FL. Partly due to the median classification longitude being 50W and beyond during neutral years. Hurricanes that strike the east coast tend to form in the Eastern Atl. The way the past 9 years have gone however, I wouldn't bank on anything other than abnormal.
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Severe thunderstorm watch 138 just issued for eastern PA
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting dabirds:
Lots of 14 yr olds at or near 5'11" around my parts yonzabam. Most are finishing growing at that age. I'm 6' and see girls around my height quite a bit, much more often then when I was younger. My daughter was 5'4" at twelve, ended up 5'5". Certainly not the majority reach 5'11", but not rare either.


Not in the UK, there aren't. If there really are LOTS of 14 year old girls that are 5' 11" in the US (which I seriously doubt), then there must be 'something in the water'.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Florida is going to get hit by a major. I don't know if it will be this year or next but the percentages say it is going to happen.


to see an exodus this hurricane season.

A very high chance in Florida for mass evacuation, I really hope people listen, prepare and act!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting luvtogolf:
Science isn't always right or indisputable despite what you think.
I didn't refer to science in general, did I? I was specifically speaking of the indisputable warming of the earth, nothing more.
Quoting luvtogolf:
Recently Stephen Hawking spoke that God had nothing to do with the creation of the Universe. If science says so, then I guess I've been lied to by my faith community for the past 60 years.
Stephen Hawking is a great man, and one of our time's finest minds. But having said, that, I agree with Naga that discussions of faith vs. science have no place in a scientific forum.
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Lots of 14 yr olds at or near 5'11" around my parts yonzabam. Most are finishing growing at that age. I'm 6' and see girls around my height quite a bit, much more often then when I was younger. My daughter was 5'4" at twelve, ended up 5'5". Certainly not the majority reach 5'11", but not rare either.
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Quoting seminolesfan:

Why do you always change the skeptical view of man's industrial tampering with the dynamical earth system to a denial of current temperature trends?
I don't believe I "always" do that. In fact, I don't "always" do anything (except maybe brush and floss before bed). My comments here have been in response to some who are questioning Dr. Masters' usage of NOAA's new temperature percentile maps; there's been nothing stated about "man's industrial tampering with the dynamical earth system". And if there has been, I've missed it.
Quoting seminolesfan:
I know you like to talk down to people and move the playing field to something more emotion-laden than the topic of your own biases and persistent use of logical crutches of debate rather than direct answers.
Please try to avoid the ad hominems if you would. Thanks!
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Quoting luvtogolf:


Science isn't always right or indisputable despite what you think.

Recently Stephen Hawking spoke that God had nothing to do with the creation of the Universe. If science says so, then I guess I've been lied to by my faith community for the past 60 years.


Don't start this argument. Faith has no empirical evidence behind it. You cannot compare faith to science. Science requires evidence, faith has no such requirement.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
You did happen to notice that the darkest reds also disappear on the percentile map, right? At any rate, facts are facts: the planet is warming. Despite caterwauling to the contrary, that is scientifically indisputable.


Science isn't always right or indisputable despite what you think.

Recently Stephen Hawking spoke that God had nothing to do with the creation of the Universe. If science says so, then I guess I've been lied to by my faith community for the past 60 years.
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250. yoboi
Quoting seminolesfan:

Why do you always change the skeptical view of man's industrial tampering with the dynamical earth system to a denial of current temperature trends?

(Just curious. I know you like to talk down to people and move the playing field to something more emotion-laden than the topic of your own biases and persistent use of logical crutches of debate rather than direct answers.)


Because he supports ATB 4 sec & 5,200 F.......
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Good afternoon everyone!

I just concluded a new blog... mind if you check it out?
The new hurricane chart is there with more information
I also updated my hurricane season forecast
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
More good flooding news, Fargo predicted rise lowered around 2 feet, which puts it near relative safe 38 ft level. Slower melt, I assume, helping. Article didn't state reason unfortunately.
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neutral hurricane season look out florida
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Quoting Neapolitan:
You did happen to notice that the darkest reds also disappear on the percentile map, right? At any rate, facts are facts: the planet is warming. Despite caterwauling to the contrary, that is scientifically indisputable.

Why do you always change the skeptical view of man's industrial tampering with the dynamical earth system to a denial of current temperature trends?

(Just curious. I know you like to talk down to people and move the playing field to something more emotion-laden than the topic of your own biases and persistent use of logical crutches of debate rather than direct answers.)
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244. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:


It's irrelevant. It does not change the fact that this March was the 10th warmest since record keeping began in 1880.


or 123rd coldest!!!!!!
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Hurricane Kit


Make sure your hurricane kit includes:
Flashlights & extra bulbs
Battery-operated radio
Battery-operated lanterns
Batteries (in different sizes!)
Matches
First aid kit
Duct tape
Rain gear
Clock (wind-up or battery-powered)
Plastic garbage bags
Fire extinguisher
Scissors
Can Opener
Clean clothes
Extra blankets
Heavy gloves

House Checklist
Remove outdoor items
Trim dead branches from trees
Board up windows
Fill gas tanks and extra containers
Get extra cash
Move furniture away from windows
Store important documents in waterproof containers
Extra supply of medicines

Food and Water
Pack non-perishable food for each person for 3-7 days.
Bottled water (1 gallon/person/day)
Bottled juice
Two coolers:
One for drinks & one for food
Canned foods
Manual can opener
Dry pet food

Medical Needs
Medic-alert tags
Insect-repellent sprays
Feminine hygiene items
Sunscreen
Soap
First aid kit
Prescription medication
Over-the-counter medication
Children's medicine
Bandages
Adhesive tape
Antiseptic solution
Thermometer
Tweezers


.
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40%
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Line of storms forming in PA... Looks to hit me in around 1-2 hrs maybe... If it survives the exit off the Mountains
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Quoting luvtogolf:
It will always be presented in a way to eliminate the blue colors.
You did happen to notice that the darkest reds also disappear on the percentile map, right? At any rate, facts are facts: the planet is warming. Despite caterwauling to the contrary, that is scientifically indisputable.
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SST's getting closer to 26C

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36853
Quoting Naga5000:


It's irrelevant. It does not change the fact that this March was the 10th warmest since record keeping began in 1880.
Put enough constraints on any statistic and it will be true upon detailed analysis of the specific instance cited.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36853
Quoting luvtogolf:


It will always be presented in a way to eliminate the blue colors.

Ohhh, THAT kind of more interesting. I guess the eye is drawn to red...
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For those who have not seen it yet and may want to chim in on this,I made a blog about the following question=Greek names in 2013 North Atlantic season?
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Quoting luvtogolf:


It will always be presented in a way to eliminate the blue colors.


It's irrelevant. It does not change the fact that this March was the 10th warmest since record keeping began in 1880.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36853
Quoting JeffMasters:


The anomaly map uses the period 1980 - 2010 as the "normal", whereas the percentile map references temperatures to the entire period of record, back to 1880. Either are valuable, depending upon whether you want to compare things to what people are used to (the globally-warmed climate of the past 30 years) or want to look at the long-term picture (how does this year rank compared to the entire 134-year period of record.) NCDC just started producing the percentile maps, and I think they are more interesting than the old anomaly maps.

Jeff Masters


More interesting to whom? Science is about breadth as much as depth, IMO...
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sure is Hot here today.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36853
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36853
Dr. Masters, could you please post a blog entry about this hurricane season and what you think will be the most prevalent factors affecting it sometime soon? I think everyone here would enjoy it; I know I would.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 PM AST WED APR 24 2013

PRC007-009-019-025-035-041-045-105-139-242315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0023.130424T2012Z-130424T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-NARANJITO PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-AIBONITO PR-
412 PM AST WED APR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CAGUAS...CAYEY...CIDRA...COMERIO... NARANJITO...
TRUJILLO ALTO...AGUAS BUENAS AND AIBONITO

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 408 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS
WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST
715 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6619 1828 6617 1828 6611 1830 6605
1833 6603 1816 6603 1810 6612 1805 6616
1807 6621 1810 6622 1809 6627 1823 6634
1827 6629 1833 6628 1833 6622

$$

ER
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Quoting nymore:
Why would Jeff use the temperature percentiles global picture and not the actual temperature anomaly global picture. Here see if you can figure it out.

Percentiles



Temp Anomalies



I can only figure he hates the color blue


It will always be presented in a way to eliminate the blue colors.
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Ice Gas: A Step Closer to Commercial Production

The news in early March that a Japanese company had finally successfully extracted natural gas from methane hydrate deposits under the seabed offshore Japan was hailed as a breakthrough for the energy industry around the world. There are large deposits of methane hydrate, or "ice gas", in several locations around the planet which means, if successfully exploited, they could bring to many regions around the world the low gas prices currently seen in North America as a result of the shale gas boom.

Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) reported March 12 that it successfully extracted natural gas from methane hydrate deposits from around 1,000 feet under the seabed offshore Japan.

Methane hydrate is a compound in which a large amount of methane is trapped within a crystal structure made up of water, so forming a solid that is similar to ice in its composition (although it looks like slush). For methane hydrate deposits to form the right conditions in terms of pressures and temperatures are required. These conditions are normally found in four kinds of environment:

Sediment and sedimentary rock under Arctic permafrost
Sedimentary deposits along continental margins
Deepwater sediments of seas and lakes (e.g. the fresh water Lake Baijal, Siberia)
Beneath Antarctic ice
There are some 40 trillion cubic feet of methane held in methane hydrate deposits under the sea in the eastern Nankai Trough, off the southern coast of the Japanese island of Honshu, according to JOGMEC. This is equivalent to around 11 years of the amount of liquefied natural gas that is currently imported into Japan.

[more at link]
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From the IRI website status of ENSO conditions.








Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25323

Quoting yonzabam:


I don't want to sound facetious regarding a child abduction incident . . . but I have never in my life seen a 14 year old girl that was 5' 11" tall. 5' 4" is awfully tall for a 12 year old girl, too.
Well, my cousin was 5'6" when she was 12 and, but ur right, its not a normal thing



Quoting txjac:


I've never seen an amber alert come out by the National Weather Service ...is that a normal thing?
And as Keeper said, Amber Alerts are posted by the NWS and other forms of media so it increases the chances of the child being found
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Here is a educational place that talks about what are Tropical Waves,how they evolve,wind sfifts etc etc.

Evolution of a Tropical Wave
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Quoting JeffMasters:
NCDC just started producing the percentile maps, and I think they are more interesting than the old anomaly maps.
So do I. And, despite an earlier insinuation, the percentile map softened both the deep reds as well as the dark blues seen on the anomaly map, while giving an even truer picture of the situation around places like Oceania.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Tornado caught on camera this afternoon in the New Orleans metro.


That picture was actually taken in Bourg, La. Near Houma, La.
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wow nice take a look at that blob off the W coast of Africa its spinning around 5/6N 19/20W

Link

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218. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting txjac:


I've never seen an amber alert come out by the National Weather Service ...is that a normal thing?


NWS started doing that last year I believe .. Weather Bug and several other weather programs are putting alerts out also .. I get them on my weather radio when they occur in my area ..
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Finally working for me again, kept locking up on pages 2 & 3 (50 comments). Anyway, up to 45 and slowly clearing out. Another .7" in the guage. Some puddles with last weeks 8" still soaking the ground. Flood levels on MS peaking today, all below the IL river. N of that levees and sandbagging held, no cuts in the ag levees that were overtopped. Birds looking good for sweep of Nats (sorry DC area bloggers) and winning road trip, Blues in the playoffs, and morels should be popping with 70s coming for weekend, not much to complain about (since I'm not a farmer).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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