March 2013 the globe's 10th warmest March; a billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on April 24, 2013

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March 2013 was the globe's 10th warmest March since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 9th warmest March on record. The year-to-date period of January - March has been the 8th warmest such period on record. March 2013 global land temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 9th warmest on record. March 2013 was the 337th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 12th or 8th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during March 2013 was the 16th largest in the 47-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March 2013 in his March 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. He notes that one nation set an all-time heat record: on March 6th, Navrongo, Ghana reached 43.0°C (109.4°F), the warmest temperature reliably ever measured in the country (for any month.)


Figure 1. March 2013 was the 2nd coldest winter in the U.K. since 1910, exceeded only by March 1962. In this photo taken by wunderphotographer tonylathes on March 24, 2013, we see one of March's heavy snowstorms that affected Wardlow Village in Derbyshire, United Kingdom.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for March 2013, the 10th warmest March for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), a large-scale climate pattern that can influence temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, set a record low for March. This negative phase was associated with frigid Arctic air spilling southward into the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes, leading to unusually cold conditions in the Eastern U.S., most of Europe, and northern Siberia.This phase of the AO also contributed to much warmer than average and even record warm temperatures in northeastern Canada and southeastern Greenland. A large swath of China and several regions in central and northern Africa in the 0°–20°N latitude belt were also record warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

First U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2013: March 18 - 20 severe weather outbreak
Two billion-dollar weather disasters occurred globally in March, bringing the 2013 total to five, according to the March 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker AON Benfield. The five billion-dollar weather disasters for 2013 so far:

1) Flooding in Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
2) Flooding in Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
3) Winter weather in Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
4) Drought in Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 3/31, $1.71 billion
5) Severe weather in the Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $1 billion

The first billion-dollar weather disaster in the U.S. was a severe weather outbreak that began on March 18, featuring a long-lived squall line of severe thunderstorms called a "derecho" that dropped hail up to softball size from Louisiana to South Carolina. Mississippi was hardest hit, with up to 60,000 insurance claims. Ten tornadoes touched down and two fatalities were reported during the outbreak. The U.S. has averaged 4.4 billion-dollar weather disasters per year from 1980 - 2012, but experienced 25 in the two-year period 2011 - 2012.

The deadliest March weather disaster was an outbreak of severe weather that swept across parts of eastern Bangladesh on March 22. The outbreak included a tornado that struck the regions of Sadar, Akhaura and Bijoynagar in Brahmanbaria district. At least 35 people were killed and 388 injured.


Figure 3. Hail up to the size of tennis balls fell on McComb, Mississippi, as documented by wunderphotographer sirencall On March 18, 2013. The hailstorm was part of a severe weather outbreak that gave the U.S. its first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2013.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 12th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during March 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer. The large majority of the El Niño models predict neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C below average as of April 22, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since March 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 5th lowest March extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during March reached its fifth lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 10th consecutive March and 142nd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen nine of the ten lowest March extents in the satellite record.

Jeff Masters

Storm in the gulf (myvalleylil)
Storm in the gulf
Do you like my hat! (sandiquiz)
For the third time in as many weeks, we have snow. Luckily not as much in this area as further north, where there are 15 foot snowdrifts in Cumbria, North West UK.
Do you like my hat!
Freezing Fog on Crocus (WurzelDave)
In the fog was small patches of freezing fog.
Freezing Fog on Crocus

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april 29 2013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Interesting Blog... USA and UK and Parts of Australia have below average month but it's still 8th warmest.
You're correct in pointing out that both the eastern US and much of Europe were chilly. The same with southern South America and the northeastern Pacific. But red clearly ruled the map, including Australia, which looks to have had very little in the way of below normal temperatures for March.

No "agenda", as someone claimed. Just further signs of a warming planet.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13474
Quoting AussieStorm:
Interesting Blog... USA and UK and Parts of Australia have below average month but it's still 8th warmest.
Quoting Chucktown:


Don't you know, we have an agenda to keep here.

Or perhaps, as I'm sure you learned during your courses on climate during your study to become a meteorologist, the data is showing exactly what we expect. Different parts of the world experience differing magnitude anomalies, and rarely is virtually the entire world all colder/warmer/wetting/drier at the same exact time.

And perhaps it also indicates that, ya know, instead of some "agenda" or whatever you are going on about, the U.S. and parts of Europe actually are not the globe as a whole, but instead geographers were right... they only make up <10% of the area, which really has a small impact on the average across the whole area.

So perhaps we should use this as a teaching moment... when we hear that one small part of the globe is experiencing warmer/colder/wetter/drier weather over a short period, we should be skeptical of that being global in scale until we have further data.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3172


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 137...

VALID 241400Z - 241530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 137 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 137 OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS AND SCNTRL LA WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SE LA INTO SW MS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES
ARE IN TH 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN NEW ORLEANS SHOWS
45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 20 KT. THIS WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LCL-HEIGHTS AROUND 500 METERS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS MOVES EWD INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1012 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

LAC005-241530-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-130424T1530Z/
ASCENSION LA-
1012 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN
ASCENSION PARISH...

AT 1008 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PRAIRIEVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF GONZALES...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SORRENTO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9101 3034 9099 3035 9089 3033 9085
3027 9081 3028 9078 3026 9079 3018 9071
3019 9068 3021 9067 3020 9067 3016 9068
3021 9106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1511Z 274DEG 25KT 3030 9093

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144


SPC AC 241224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CNTRL
GULF CST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE LWR 48 THIS
PERIOD...ON SRN FRINGE OF MAIN UPR LOW/TROUGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THIS FLOW...NOW OVER
MO...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NE TO THE UPR OH VLY THIS EVE...AND INTO
QUE EARLY THU...AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING ND ARCS E/SE
ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY TO NEAR LK MI. FARTHER S...WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH NOW OVER SE TX SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE INTO GA THIS EVE
WHILE UPR LOW OFF THE CST OF BAJA CA ADVANCES MORE SLOWLY ENE TOWARD
NRN BAJA.

AT LWR LVLS...STRONG COLD FRONT WITH MO TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
STEADILY E ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY AND CNTRL/NRN APPALACHIANS LATER
TODAY...AND MORE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE TN VLY/GULF CST STATES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A FEW POCKETS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SVR TSTMS TODAY. A WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE
MID-MO VLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ND TROUGH.

...LA/MS TODAY...
A BAND OF STRONG TSTMS HAS FORMED IN RECENT HOURS ALONG PORTION OF
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WRN GULF CST REGION. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY AREA OF ENHANCED WAA/LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /PW
AOA 2 INCHES/ AHEAD OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE. AREA VWP DATA SHOW
LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE GIVEN 30 KT SLY LLJ VEERING
TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW AT 500 MB. WHILE WEAK LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE/COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW
INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING WHEN LOW-LVL FLOW VEERS WITH THE CONTINUED EWD
MOTION OF UPR DISTURBANCE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 137
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1015 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

LAC005-007-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-10 3-105-109-117-
MSC045-109-147-241800-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.A.0137.000000T0000Z-130424T1800Z/

TORNADO WATCH 137 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 PARISHES

IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

ASCENSION ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON

IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

HANCOCK PEARL RIVER WALTHALL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BAY ST. LOUIS...BAYOU CANE...
BELLE CHASSE...BOGALUSA...CHALMETTE...COVINGTON...CUT OFF...
DENHAM SPRINGS...DESTREHAN...DIAMONDHEAD...DONALDSONVILLE ...
FRANKLINTON...GALLIANO...GONZALES...GRAMERCY...HA MMOND...HOUMA...
KENNER...LABADIEVILLE...LACOMBE...LAPLACE...LAROS E...LUTCHER...
MANDEVILLE...METAIRIE...NEW ORLEANS...NORCO...PAINCOURTVILLE...
PICAYUNE...PIERRE PART...PONCHATOULA...PORT SULPHUR...RACELAND...
RESERVE...SLIDELL...THIBODAUX...TYLERTOWN...VIOLE T...
WALKER AND WAVELAND.

$$
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 137
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1015 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

GMZ530-534-241800-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.A.0137.000000T0000Z-130424T1800Z/

TORNADO WATCH 137 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS LAKE BORGNE

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting LargoFl:
folks forget about a model run 222 hours away, we have SEVERE weather going on right now that people should be following along the western gulf coast..


Yes you are right , Just getting carried away with the season not even starting.....


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC099-101-241600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0037.130424T1501Z-130424T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1001 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES STEPHENSVILLE...
SOUTHERN ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...PATTERSON...MORGAN CITY...BURNS POINT...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1000 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...OVER PATTERSON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BERWICK AND STEPHENSVILLE BY 1005 AM CDT...
MORGAN CITY BY 1010 AM CDT...
AMELIA BY 1020 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 2952 9121 2954 9127 2943 9127 2946 9132
2943 9134 2945 9135 2947 9131 2956 9142
2954 9154 2963 9155 2965 9159 2970 9151
2987 9121 2981 9109 2965 9110 2960 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1500Z 311DEG 32KT 2966 9131

$$

K. KUYPER
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sounds like a brand of high tech washing machines.


...good one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting pcola57:


Now thats trollish..
And childish IMO..
Wake up Walt..
Taz will get you..
The "Tazinator!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting AussieStorm:
Interesting Blog... USA and UK and Parts of Australia have below average month but it's still 8th warmest.


Don't you know, we have an agenda to keep here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
folks forget about a model run 222 hours away, we have SEVERE weather going on right now that people should be following along the western gulf coast..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm interesting it is at the end of the GFS run I believe this is on the 13th of May



Yes the CFS had it two weeks ago ..Fished it though but look what it has ... I know its pretty much a month away but I recall you said developement around the 15th

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
TORNADO WARNING
LAC005-033-047-241530-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0036.130424T1443Z-130424T1530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
943 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GONZALES...
SOUTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF OAK HILLS PLACE...
EAST CENTRAL IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PLAQUEMINE...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 942 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GARDERE...
OR NEAR PLAQUEMINE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WESTMINSTER...CARVILLE...GEISMER...PRAIRIEVILLE AND SORRENTO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting clwstmchasr:
While the Globe has been hot, it sure has been very pleasant here in Florida with below normal temperatures since the beginning of March.
Which part of Florida? Here in Naples on the Southwest coast, the temperature has been above normal 21 of April's 23 days, including the last 17 consecutive days. That's a huge difference from March, which saw below normal temperatures here on all but five days. Love those turnarounds... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13474
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
934 AM AST WED APR 24 2013

PRC015-069-077-085-095-103-109-129-151-241630-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0020.130424T1334Z-130424T1630Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ARROYO PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
934 AM AST WED APR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ARROYO...NAGUABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...PATILLAS...
SAN LORENZO...YABUCOA AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 1230 PM AST


* AT 935 AM AST......DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS
WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...THROUGH AT LEAST
1230 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6574 1818 6571 1817 6573 1815 6573
1815 6576 1806 6579 1805 6582 1802 6582
1796 6594 1797 6602 1795 6606 1808 6607
1829 6578

$$

AAS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Aren't those base reflectivity images great!! I just discovered that site yesterday after you posted the Paducah NWS Nexrad image. That got my attention immediately!

So I thank you for the neat images and staying on top of the active weather down near the Crescent City...


Good Morning SouthernIllinois..
So glad you like them and they are good for sure..
New Orleans is a little over 200 miles from me but usually what they get, I get..

Here's a couple of relevant images for you..

This is an image before your current rains..



This is your area now after the recent rains/flooding..



You can read the complete report on my blog post# 341..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Thanks Doc!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


Now thats trollish..
And childish IMO..
Wake up Walt..
Taz will get you..


Ooooo NO, you said his name... Its like bettlejuice, just dont say it two more times...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmm interesting it is at the end of the GFS run I believe this is on the 13th of May

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
43. MTWX
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sounds like a brand of high tech washing machines.


Yeah... From the 1950's... LOL!!!

Just messin' Wash...


Getting our soaking and rapid temperature drop now... So far it has dropped 15 degrees in the last 30 minutes...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting Blog... USA and UK and Parts of Australia have below average month but it's still 8th warmest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
While the Globe has been hot, it sure has been very pleasant here in Florida with below normal temperatures since the beginning of March.


I agree..
Morning clwstmchasr..
Thank goodness they have been..
Been outside for several days fighting a algea bloom in my pool..
It's been a bit breezy and really comfortable..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Quoting SouthernIllinois:


I agree it doesn't look very conducive anytime soon for any tropical or sub-tropical development anywhere down there. 06Z GFS depicts very hostile conditions at the 250MB level.

click image to enlarge

how it it at about 300 hours out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Waltanater:
I just did. Actually, I will call you "Washinater" How's that? ah ha ha ha...
Sounds like a brand of high tech washing machines.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
Quoting Waltanater:
I just did. Actually, I will call you "Washinater" How's that? ah ha ha ha...


Now thats trollish..
And childish IMO..
Wake up Walt..
Taz will get you..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Thanks for the monthly update.

I think 337 in a row, pretty much says what needs to be said.

The warmer sea surface temperatures have a direct effect on Tropical Storm activity levels and cloud formation. That seems very relevant to this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Waltanater:
any...general one


Check out posts #20 and #21..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Quoting pcola57:


Sure..
Which post # ?
any...general one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
1)You can't call me Washi and 2) It all depends on who brings up what such topic.And 3) If a comment is not offensive and stays in the guidelines then why not question authority.4) there is nothing out in the tropics do your going to have to wait expect arguing to continue.
I just did. Actually, I will call you "Washinater" How's that? ah ha ha ha...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol sorry pcola, those graphics are from Levi's site.

Link

Under forecast models.


As always I thank you TA..
Did anyone tell you lately your getting smarter.??.Lol..
Thanks for sharing.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Quoting Waltanater:
can u post the water vapor images please?


Sure..
Which post # ?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Quoting pcola57:


Morning bappit..
Yes it is a hint..
Some of my bookmarks are getting old and non-relevant..
I know when to shout for help..Lol..

Lol sorry pcola, those graphics are from Levi's site.

Link

Under forecast models.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
This place has become soft over these past few years..What Insaid in the post was 1) I go to other sites to discuss GW with mature people.Funny how a certain group can get away with calling people stupid and monkeys.2)That someone hasn't taken their meds but I see they have now which wasn't directed at anyone in particular.I could've been talking about my son for all they know.


Wash, you have WU mail...
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Quoting pcola57:


can u post the water vapor images please?
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Quoting Waltanater:
Does anyone want to argue about GW or any other topic today?
1)You can't call me Washi and 2) It all depends on who brings up what such topic.And 3) If a comment is not offensive and stays in the guidelines then why not question authority.4) there is nothing out in the tropics so your going to have to wait expect arguing to continue.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
Quoting bappit:

That seems like a hint.


Morning bappit..
Yes it is a hint..
Some of my bookmarks are getting old and non-relevant..
I know when to shout for help..Lol..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Quoting SouthernIllinois:


I'm with you. This is no place I care to discuss topics such as AGW. Others may, and that's great, but I generally don't comment on those topics here. I pretty much use this site for weather related topics for the most part. This site offers some fantastic resources along with very knowledgeable bloggers when it comes to weather! And that includes all types of weather--winter storms, severe weather, etc.--not just tropical forecasting.

Put 'em on ignore. That's what I do.

Edit: They do make it just a tiny bit obscure on how to do that. You have to:
1) open the drop down menu under your handle at the top of this page,
2) click on "My Blog",
3) find the section labeled "Blog Control Panel",
4) click on "Edit Ignored List"
5) enter in the undesired's handle on the list exactly, upper case and lower case must match
6) click the "Update Ignored List" button at the bottom of the page
7) go back to the main blog and refresh the page to see if everything worked
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
New Orleans, LA (KLIX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)




Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for posting that TA..
I couldn't post the Sub-Jet from a site that has a paywall..
It's the only link I have on it..
I will bookmark your image/website info if I can find it.. :p

That seems like a hint.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6779
Does anyone want to argue about GW or any other topic today?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.