Damaging major flooding in Illinois as Mississippi River crests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on April 23, 2013

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The mighty Mississippi River has surged to damaging major flood heights along a 200-mile stretch in western Illinois just north of St. Louis, Missouri. “We have seen some of the worst flooding damage to neighborhoods and homes across our state in Illinois history,” Governor Quinn said on Monday, and he declared 44 counties disaster areas. Missouri Governor Jay Nixon declared a state of emergency after flash flooding hit many areas of his state. The river has been closed to barge traffic along a 15-mile stretch near St. Louis since Saturday, when 114 barges broke loose from a fleeting area. Eleven barges containing coal sank. Approximately twelve locks on the Mississippi and Illinois rivers have been closed to shipping due to high water. The Mississippi River peaked at top-five flood heights in recorded history Sunday through Tuesday along the 200-mile section north of St. Louis, but is now falling. The flood crest has yet to come from St. Louis southwards, where the river will stay near crest for multiple days, due to 0.5 - 1.0" of rain expected to fall over most of Illinois, Missouri, and Indiana on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the floods will not be as significant, ranking near the 10th highest floods on record near St. Louis. Flood records along the Mississippi extend back in time to the 1840s to 1940s, depending upon the location.


Figure 1. Thursday, April 18, 2013: Aerial photo provided by the U.S. Coast Guard shows the dam in Marseilles, Ill., after seven barges broke free from a tow and came to rest against the dam. (AP Photo/Courtesy of the U.S. Coast Guard, Petty Officer 3rd Class John Schleicher.)

Record flooding ends in Illinois and Michigan
The National Weather Service recognizes four types of flooding: minor, moderate, major, and record. Major flooding is capable of causing significant damage, and moderate and minor flooding generally only cause isolated damage. Record flooding, of course, can cause record damage, and we had at least nineteen river gauges report record flooding during the April 2013 flood event. The record flooding has ended, and no more record flooding is expected this week. The record floods, as compiled by Dr. Greg Forbes of TWC:

Illinois River: at Peoria, IL; Henry IL; Morris IL; Ottawa IL; and LaSalle IL
Grand River at Comstock Park, MI
Rock River at Moline IL and Byron, IL (short record at the latter)
LaMoine River at Ripley, IL and Colmar, IL
Fox River at McHenry Lock and Dam, IL and Algonquin Tailwater, IL
Des Plaines River at Des Plaines and Riverside IL
Vermilion River at Leonore, IL
East Branch DuPage River at Bolingbrook, IL
Spoon River at Seville, IL
English River at Kalona, IA
North Branch Chicago River in Chicago, IL 


Figure 2. Holy carp! A smallmouth bass checks out the interior of an office building in Riverfront Plaza, which was flooded by the Grand River in downtown Grand Rapids, MI, on Saturday, April 21, 2013. The Grand Rapids Public Museum is in the background. The picture was taken by Lynn Clay, director of network office supervision at Northwestern Mutual Financial Network in Grand Rapids. According to an interview with MLive.com, she was simply trying to take a photo of the flood when the fish swam into the frame. She didn’t even realize it until she saw the image later. The 110-year-old building, despite some leaking and soggy bottom level carpeting, survived the flooding in great shape, according to facilities staff.


Figure 3. Office building in Grand Rapids, Michigan where the fish photo was taken, as seen on Saturday, April 21, 2013. Image credit: GRNow.com. According to this thread on Facebook, the office building was built with aquarium glass.

More major Midwest spring flooding expected next week
A second round of major Midwest flooding is expected the last week of April and into early May, when the heavy snowpack in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin is expected to melt significantly, unleashing the equivalent of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall into the watersheds of the Red River of the North, Mississippi River, and Missouri River. Of particular concern is the flooding expected on the Red River of the North near Fargo, North Dakota, where flood heights will likely be among the top five in recorded history. Fortunately, the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows only one significant rain-making storm affecting the region April 25 - May 7--a cold front that may produce about 0.5" of precipitation around April 30.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt summarized some of the rainfall and flooding records from the epic storm April 15 - 20 storm in his Sunday post.

Earth Week 2013
The general public think less than half of climate scientists agree that humans are causing global warming. The reality is 97%. Dr. John Cook, Climate Change Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, explains the challenges of climate science communication in his contribution to our Earth Day 2013 microsite, "Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change."

Jeff Masters

I think the drought is over (rds817)
Wabash River now cresting in Terre Haute at 27.4 feet! This is the 7th highest level ever recorded. It's the highest in 55 years going back to 1958 for the last time it was higher than this.
I think the drought is over
River has come up alot in 24hrs (nauvoo)
2' 3
River has come up alot in 24hrs
Flooded Bridge (geuDek)
Kishwaukee River flooding in Praire Park.
Flooded Bridge

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214. Naga5000
12:18 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Quoting bjrabbit:
All of these floods were no doubt caused by global warming....if only idiots like myself could see this.

Before man made global warming, which is desperately searching for that vaunted consensus, these kinds of floods NEVER happened. That's right...they never happened. Yeah, Indians just built their villages right next to rivers and nothing ever happened because evil man wasn't causing global warming way back when. Yeah, like way back when Galileo was told he was wrong about what he thought. I'm sure the learned men back then were in 100% consenus on the earth being the center of the universe.

What you are witnessing is the result of sheer stupidity...the result of building in known flood plains. I wonder why they are called 100 year flood plains? I mean, did global warming start 100 years ago? Did they have satellite data from back then? Doesn't matter.



No one is saying global warming is causing these floods, instead, a warming planet makes extreme weather events more likely to occur. That is an important distinction. Also, no one is calling you an idiot. The information and science is out there and easily discoverable. A good place to start was yesterday's blog by Dr. Masters.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3969
213. ncstorm
12:15 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yeah,I see the change the image of all his products!!!


Okay thanks, because I didnt remember any of this stuff..

it looks like they redid the whole page..will make for some interesting maps this hurricane season..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
212. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:15 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Link for #211


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/ opinion/beware-the-scammers-targeting-academics/st ory-e6frgcko-1226439754177

The International Scholarly Research Network (ISRN) is not really a network. Instead, it's a publisher, or more precisely, a publisher's imprint. ISRN is a brand of Hindawi Publishing Corporation based in Cairo, Egypt.

Hindawi publishes 86 titles under this brand, and the titles all begin with the initialism ISRN. Alphabetically, the first is ISRN Agronomy, and the last is ISRN Zoology. The journals all fall into the areas of science, technology and medicine.

This imprint is not on my list (above) of questionable publishers, but I am monitoring its progress. ISRN uses the gold open-access model of financing scholarly publishing. That is, it charges authors upon acceptance of an article. The normal fee for ISRN titles is US $500 per article, ...


http://scholarlyoa.com/2012/01/26/all-about-the-i nternational-scholarly-research-network/
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
211. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:13 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Be careful...

Beware the scammers targeting academics
BY:VAL COLIC-PEISKER From: The Australian August 05, 2012 2:07PM


MY alarm bells went off a few months ago when my research student received two "no changes required" reviews, only three weeks after she had made her first submission to a refereed journal.

A short and flattering review is usually a case of a lazy referee. In this case it was more sinister: fake reviews. The editor's letter also asked for a $200 submission fee.

It is easy enough to start a phony journal in the internet jungle, a great playground for scammers of all sorts. But the journal in point, International Journal of Business and Social Science, was listed on the Australian Research Council's 2012 ERA list of refereed journals.

The fake reviews, containing grammatical errors, were signed by a professor of economics from Radford University, US. Upon inquiry, he told me he did not sign the editorial decision and that his academic identity was used by the scam journal without his permission. A couple of months later, another call for papers from a suspicious-looking journal reached my inbox. The International Journal of Business and Social Research was apparently the extension to a successful business model of IJBSS which has published 35 refereed articles in each monthly issue since 2009. On the website I found the editor's contact details. This time a Stanford University academic. The reply was "The editor? No way."


Refereed publishing is one of the main pillars of the academic profession. A thorough peer review is what distinguishes it and justifies its claim to scientific authority.

It seems that the pillars are increasingly shaky.

Fake journals are a market response to the high and unrealistic pressure on Western academics to churn out original scientific publication. Under pressure, they can become complicit in a scam that eases the pressure. Academics from all over the world have published in IJBSS. Earlier this year, Sydney University based its redundancy list on an arbitary number of refereed publications. The key concern here is that IJBSS's scam was legitimised by being on the list of recognised journals put together by the peak national research body.
...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
210. stormchaser19
12:12 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Evening..

Maybe I am late on this or maybe I just wasnt paying attention but did the TCFA page always have a 0-24 hour or 0-48 hour window tropical cyclone probability??





Yeah,I see the change the image of all his products!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
209. Jedkins01
12:09 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Space is always relevant on Wunderground.

(That and rocket launches, especially manned missions, are equal to Super Bowl Sunday for Floridians)



We live in a great state, we have NASA and the NHC, and we also have FSU meteorology ;)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
208. ncstorm
12:08 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Good Evening..

Maybe I am late on this or maybe I just wasnt paying attention but did the TCFA page always have a 0-24 hour or 0-48 hour window tropical cyclone probability??



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
207. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:06 AM GMT on April 24, 2013


This is a contour plot of total totals index with a contour interval of 2. The TT field shows instability in the atmosphere based on the lapse rate from 850 to 500 mb plus dewpoint at 850 mb. Where TTs are greater than 45, thunderstorms are possible. The higher the number, the more unstable the atmosphere is and as a result, the bold the thunderstorms could become. Values of 52 or higher indicate areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. Values <40 indicate areas of stable weather where skies are generally clear.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:04 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
205. ScottLincoln
12:04 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Quoting aspectre:
I posted so late-night that ya probably didn't see this, so...
273 TropicalAnalystwx13: Ran across this earlier:
The authors report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to solar activity. The relationship results from fewer intense tropical cyclones over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when sunspot numbers are high...
Anybody believe it?

I don't see any correlation that lends plausibility to the idea.


The paper's abstract indicates that the link is between solar activity and tropical activity in the Gulf and Caribbean. You'd probably need a subset of your tropical Atlantic data to really make a fair comparison.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3326
204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:03 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
203. Levi32
12:02 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Quoting bappit:

Your graphs are for the whole North Atlantic. The quote mentions only Gulf and Carribean. They cite a possible mechanism which gives it some plausibility. I have no clue whether the data supports it or not. I also don't know how large an effect there might be compared to other factors. The article seems to be behind a pay wall.


I don't think this (below) is the same paper, so these authors seem to have been busy with this link recently. Here's their last paper (October 2012) dealing with the spatial distribution of hurricane counts as a function of SSN. Quite interesting.

Link
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
202. ScottLincoln
12:01 AM GMT on April 24, 2013
Quoting russm1:


Yes I read it and think it proves the issue of AGW is NOT settled quite well, thank you very much. I'm sure you also read that the research was funded by the Canadian Centre for Corporate Social Responsibility, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) Fellowship, Killam Foundation Fellowship, Alberta Innovates %u2013 Alberta Water Research Institute, and Engineers Canada.

Guess you just don't like Canadians!

I guess if you did actually read it, yet came to this conclusion seemingly at odds with the actual paper and the authors' conclusions, the issue wasn't in reading it but may instead lie in reading comprehension.

If you think a non-random survey of only-sorta-related-to-climate-science scientists in one of largest oil/gas extraction regions of the world constitutes a representative sample of climate science and should be considered for further study on what climate scientists think, then I'm not really sure what to say. That concept is just plain silly.

If you think a paper that set out to group people from an individual, non-represenative survey - not to actually sample and extrapolate their opinions but to describe and study their worldviews - should be used as a conclusive report that samples and extrapolates opinions to the world's scientists, then I'm not really sure what to say. That's another concept that is just plain silly.

It still doesn't seem like you read the paper. Maybe you should read it again? If there are confusing parts perhaps you should contact the authors for clarification? If you keep making conclusions like those above, actual scientists are going have a hard time taking you seriously and will be, well, skeptical.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3326
201. 47n91w
11:57 PM GMT on April 23, 2013
Within the last 10 days...

Last night's storm:


And the one before that:


And the one before that:




News from the NWS Office in Duluth:

Top 3 Snowiest Aprils
1. 31.6" in 1950
2. 24.4" in 1961
3. 23.7" in 1983

As of 1 am CDT April 23rd, 2013....51.0" (1st)


Top 5 Snowiest Years
1. 135.4" in 1995-1996
2. 131.8" in 1949-1950
3. 128.2" in 1996-1997
4. 121.0" in 1968-1969
5. 117.1" in 1988-1989

As of 7 am CDT April 23rd, 2013....129.4" (3rd)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting aspectre:

Your graphs are for the whole North Atlantic. The quote mentions only Gulf and Carribean. They cite a possible mechanism which gives it some plausibility. I have no clue whether the data supports it or not. I also don't know how large an effect there might be compared to other factors. The article seems to be behind a pay wall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
I posted so late-night that ya probably didn't see this, so...
273 TropicalAnalystwx13: Ran across this earlier:
The authors report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to solar activity. The relationship results from fewer intense tropical cyclones over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when sunspot numbers are high...
Anybody believe it?

I don't see any correlation that lends plausibility to the idea.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Go to my blog to answer this question=Greek names in 2013?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All of these floods were no doubt caused by global warming....if only idiots like myself could see this.

Before man made global warming, which is desperately searching for that vaunted consensus, these kinds of floods NEVER happened. That's right...they never happened. Yeah, Indians just built their villages right next to rivers and nothing ever happened because evil man wasn't causing global warming way back when. Yeah, like way back when Galileo was told he was wrong about what he thought. I'm sure the learned men back then were in 100% consenus on the earth being the center of the universe.

What you are witnessing is the result of sheer stupidity...the result of building in known flood plains. I wonder why they are called 100 year flood plains? I mean, did global warming start 100 years ago? Did they have satellite data from back then? Doesn't matter.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


If this CFS forecast is verified,Nino regions are going to cool much more!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting stormchaser19:

2005

2013


Not even close in comparison there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In reference to my above post, it seems like in the last few years the warm pool (eddy) in the Gulf has set up more to the West near Louisiana with the cold pools setting up near the FL panhandle. Let's see if the current different pattern stays in contrast from the past few years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Amazing warm pool there off the FL panhandle and a little to the West there. That would be a bad setup for a storm moving north toward the coast there if that pool stays and when it heats up more as the year goes on.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not weather-related (though it one day could be): here's some fantastic HD footage of the SpaceX Grasshopper's 250m flight test. Awesome technology behind this one:



Space is always relevant on Wunderground.

(That and rocket launches, especially manned missions, are equal to Super Bowl Sunday for Floridians)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Minnemike:
yay, my wife just passed her dissertation, WU!!!
yeah, for some reason you all need to know, i just got the email ^_^
we're off to Pasadena, CA.. NASA JPL for the post-Doc... no more Minnemike :/



Awesome!

Wait wheres your dissertation thesis?

lol jk
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
There is a good blob in the EPAC. I think it was the CMC that was bullish a week ago with formation of a TC but it abandoned the idea recently.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This is just gettin' weird. :)

Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn

Highs Wednesday may be 20 degrees colder across Southeast Texas as a strong cold front sweeps through the area during the morning - Upper 50s to near 60. Fairly high rain chances will remain throughout the day.

Currently, temperatures are only in the 30s in the Texas Panhandle.




Just emptying all the cold air out from up north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
180 auburn: Just thought I would post this. I have noticed a couple of WU weather stations being powered by this little $25.00 computer. I love my Raspberry Pi, the amount of weather related things that can be done with it are vast!
183 Neapolitan: I've got two. One is being used in a pedestrian way...But I've got the other attached to a civilian drone...project...I'd rather not get into at the moment

No sense being coy, the "pizza delivery drone pilots wanted" made it obvious what you're up to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
184. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I've got two. One is being used in a pedestrian way: remotely accessing different networks. But I've got the other attached to a civilian drone as part of a work project I'd rather not get into at the moment. They're great machines--especially for the amazing price.


I had thought about the drone myself..have a friend that has one set up with a pi to keep track of his cattle..the run time isn't great on it though..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:
Just thought I would post this..I have noticed a couple of WU weather stations being powered by this Little $25.00 computer..I love my Raspberry Pi the amount of weather related things that can be done with it are vast!

Raspberry Pi Inventor Sets Out To Change The World With $25 Mini-Computer
I've got two. One is being used in a pedestrian way: remotely accessing different networks. But I've got the other attached to a civilian drone as part of a work project I'd rather not get into at the moment. They're great machines--especially for the amazing price.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I find it highly likely that he did not read it - or any scientific journal article on the topic - to be honest. That's fairly clear from his "Corrupted emails, improper temperature recordings (it goes on and on)" quip.



Yes I read it and think it proves the issue of AGW is NOT settled quite well, thank you very much. I'm sure you also read that the research was funded by the Canadian Centre for Corporate Social Responsibility, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) Fellowship, Killam Foundation Fellowship, Alberta Innovates – Alberta Water Research Institute, and Engineers Canada.

Guess you just don't like Canadians!
Member Since: August 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
180. auburn (Mod)
Just thought I would post this..I have noticed a couple of WU weather stations being powered by this Little $25.00 computer..I love my Raspberry Pi the amount of weather related things that can be done with it are vast!

Raspberry Pi Inventor Sets Out To Change The World With $25 Mini-Computer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Flood advisory issued for my area until later in the afternoon:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1123 AM HST TUE APR 23 2013

HIC003-240015-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0075.130423T2123Z-130424T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
1123 AM HST TUE APR 23 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 215 PM HST

* AT 1112 AM HST...RAIN GAGES IN THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN FALLING AT .57 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THIS ADVISORY COVERS THE WHOLE ISLANDS OF OAHU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 215 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2156 15833 2176 15794 2129 15760 2123 15774
2126 15810

$$
DONALDSON
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TomTaylor:
This is huge. Massive zonal wind anomaly developing across the East Atlantic and MDR. Tradewinds will be slow to even non existent at times as a cut-off low replaces the position of the subtropical ridge.

GEFS 7-day Zonal Wind Anomaly



GEM ENS looks the same. Both global ensemble keep winds low through the next two weeks. Looks like the CFS forecasts from earlier this month will verify well. I expect SSTAs in the MDR/East Atl (60-15W) to get above 1C, might even push 1.5.




There really isnt any significant differences between the models here.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Awesome! Congratulations to both her and you. But what do you mean "no more Minnemike"? You going away, or changing your name to something more fitting for SoCal?
thanks!! well, my projection of her future colleagues has me looking at a major beard chop.. so i'd feel like a poser with the current avatar; sight/locale..
maybe a purple hippo ;)
or per your biggest fans, a pic of Sheldon.. i hear that abysmal program takes place there
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
TomTaylor how persistent is that anomaly forecast to be?


I'm not Tom, but through at least the first week of May.
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Not weather-related (though it one day could be): here's some fantastic HD footage of the SpaceX Grasshopper's 250m flight test. Awesome technology behind this one:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TomTaylor how persistent is that anomaly forecast to be?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8918
And as a general FYI...

Although I don't think I'll be doing a point-by-point of the Washington Times' "90% of climate scientists are actual deniers because it snowed and felt cold outside" article (it's not my job to be skeptical for other people or do their critical thinking), I will provide a few links on actual snowfall data that the article overlooked.

Consider this a starting point for our skeptical individuals to begin their point-by-point critique.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008J CLI2665.1
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/snow.html

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/snow-2/
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3326
Cold front must be close, top of my WU page shows mid & upper 40s for Spfld & StL, and says we're still upper 50s
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Quoting TomTaylor:
This is huge. Massive zonal wind anomaly developing across the East Atlantic and MDR. Tradewinds will be slow to even non existent at times as a cut-off low replaces the position of the subtropical ridge.

GEFS 7-day Zonal Wind Anomaly



GEM ENS looks the same. Both global ensemble keep winds low through the next two weeks. Looks like the CFS forecasts from earlier this month will verify well. I expect SSTAs in the MDR/East Atl (60-15W) to get above 1C, might even push 1.5.



Yep. It's amazing how fast the anomalies can jump in a short period of time. Of course, if the cut-off low brings increased cloudiness, then it will slow the warming. However, one thing we shouldn't have to worry about with that pattern is African dust slowing the warming. Other than cloudiness, the warming could be fairly quick and substantial. A pattern like that should also strengthen the tripole signature and further the focus of heat into the deep tropics. It could be quite a nice year for Cape Verde hurricanes and the Caribbean door could finally reopen.
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Quoting Minnemike:
yay, my wife just passed her dissertation, WU!!!
yeah, for some reason you all need to know, i just got the email ^_^
we're off to Pasadena, CA.. NASA JPL for the post-Doc... no more Minnemike :/
Awesome! Congratulations to both her and you. But what do you mean "no more Minnemike"? You going away, or changing your name to something more fitting for SoCal?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is huge. Massive zonal wind anomaly developing across the East Atlantic and MDR. Tradewinds will be slow to even non existent at times as a cut-off low replaces the position of the subtropical ridge.

GEFS 7-day Zonal Wind Anomaly



GEM ENS looks the same. Both global ensemble keep winds low through the next two weeks. Looks like the CFS forecasts from earlier this month will verify well. I expect SSTAs in the MDR/East Atl (60-15W) to get above 1C, might even push 1.5.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this pattern persist this can be an analog year in terms of TRAJECTORIES NOT NUMBERS



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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 113 Comments: 106562

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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