Mother Nature's face is not aging slowly or gracefully

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on April 22, 2013

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"Mother Nature's face is not aging slowly or gracefully, the wrinkles and scars caused by accumulating greenhouse gases are already visible. The good news? Extreme weather is also chiseling fissures and gaping holes in the climate deniers' bunker, leaving a crumbling foundation for their arguments. Moving on, it's time to prepare for the unusual weather ahead that is likely to become usual." So writes Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers in her short essay for Earth Day 2013, "The Changing Face of Mother Nature." Dr. Francis' piece is part of a special Earth Day 2013 microsite wunderground has put together, featuring original short essays from seven of the planet's leading climate scientists and climate science communicators. Today is a day to appreciate our planet which sustains all life, a day to reflect on its beauty, and a day to draw attention to the challenges we face to maintain a livable environment for our steadily growing population. Below is a short synopsis of our seven contributors' work.


Figure 1. My favorite wunderphoto of 2012: high-level cirrus clouds containing ice crystals act as prisms, creating this beautiful "Sky Painting" captured by wunderphotographer Doesiedoats over Williams, Oregon on August 7, 2012. As is my tradition on Earth Day, I provide links at the bottom of my Earth Day post to my favorite wunderphotos taken by the wunderground community over the past year. Keep on looking up and sharing your view of the sky!

The Increased Risk of Drought under Global Warming
Drought is the greatest threat civilization faces from climate change, because drought affects the two things we need to live--food and water. Drought expert Dr. Aiguo Dai of SUNY Albany reviews the latest drought predictions from climate models and their "dire projection of increased risk of severe droughts," in his piece, "The Increased Risk of Drought under Global Warming".

The Changing Face of Mother Nature
It seem as though the weather gods have gone berserk in recent years, as nearly every day the headlines report unusual droughts, floods, prolonged cold and snow, heat waves, or unusual weather events happening somewhere around the globe. Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers explains how the unprecedented melting of sea ice and snow in the Arctic may be contributing to this onslaught in her contribution, "The Changing Face of Mother Nature."

My Climate Change
"I used to be very skeptical about global warming, unconvinced that humans had anything to do with it or that it was affecting the weather," writes Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist for The Weather Channel. "But then that changed." Find out why he changed his mind in his piece, "My Climate Change."

Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change
The general public think less than half of climate scientists agree that humans are causing global warming. The reality is 97%. Dr. John Cook, Climate Change Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, explains the challenges of climate science communication in his contribution, "Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change."

The Arctic's Shrinking Sea Ice Cover
The emerging view is that the Arctic will lose essentially all of its summer sea ice cover by the end of this century, perhaps as early as 2030-2040. Dr. Mark Serreze, Director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, discusses the implications in his post, "The Arctic's Shrinking Sea Ice Cover."

How Do We Know Humans are Responsible for Global Warming?
We know Earth is warming, but how do we know that human activities are primarily responsible? Dr. Michael Mann of Penn State explains the evidence in his contribution, "How Do We Know Humans are Responsible for Global Warming?"

Is This Global Warming?
Lately, whenever there is a severe weather or climate event that causes a lot of damage - like a severe heatwave, drought, hurricane or tornado - scientists are asked some version of the question, "Is this global warming?" Dr. Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford University explains what climate science can and cannot say about the answer to this question in his piece, "Is This Global Warming?"

Other Earth Day contributions
Wunderground Community member Skyepony has contributed a piece called "Earth Day 2013: Waiting to Get Fracked."

A new documentary called Thin Ice follows scientists at work in the Arctic, Antarctic, Southern Ocean, New Zealand, Europe and the USA.  They talk about their work, and their hopes and fears, with a rare candor and directness. This creates an intimate portrait of the global community of researchers racing to understand our planet's changing climate. Over 100 college campuses and art theaters are hosting screenings this week.

Jeff Masters

Caroline Bruenn Photography (TheBruenns)
dust storm over Alamogordo
Caroline Bruenn Photography
Strange sky.. (PnDspgs)
in Mossy head Fl. I've never seen the clouds quite like this in N. Florida.
Strange sky..
Lighthunt (Altred)
Lighthunt
Odd Cloud (Wyldman)
Odd cloud near Beaver Rim in Wyoming
Odd Cloud
A Little Light... (ceocrocker)
Amazing what sunlight, river debris and a little skim of ice can produce!
A Little Light...
Haboob #7 (nukegm)
Another dust storm rolling into town.
Haboob #7

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's too friggin cold for late April. I was wearing shorts this time last year. Wearing a jacket now.


Morning TA..
I know right?
My azaleas are very confused..
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Quoting SLU:


The bulls eye could be focused near the Caribbean and SE US this year according to the MSLP anomaly forecasts from some of the computer models namely the UKMET and the EUROSIP (the consensus of several models). Even the outlier ECMWF which in its last forecast shows a hostile environment mostly shows the highest pressures in the sub-tropics with a lower probability of high pressures in the Caribbean. I will post a few graphics to illustrate later on to show how the storm tracks tend to congregate where the SLP's are the lowest.


Please do..
This has/is a strange weather pattern with lots of variability..
I hate to bring it up but starting with the end of last years T/C season as well as this winter it's be very hard for models to keep up and accurately predict..
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It's too friggin cold for late April. I was wearing shorts this time last year. Wearing a jacket now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33101
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I hope you are wrong too!



(Swallows Hard )..
Morning Geoff..
Don't like the way things are lining up..
I remember all too well..
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St Louis, MO (KLSX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Dodge City, KS (KDDC) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Topeka, KS (KTWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5

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422. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
if the present conditions continue to hold, then the season will be more active than the april forecast. if the pieces of the puzzle are coming together as outlined by SLU, then I expect the numbers to go up in the early june forecasts


The bulls eye could be focused near the Caribbean and SE US this year according to the MSLP anomaly forecasts from some of the computer models namely the UKMET and the EUROSIP (the consensus of several models). Even the outlier ECMWF which in its last forecast shows a hostile environment mostly shows the highest pressures in the sub-tropics with a lower probability of high pressures in the Caribbean. I will post a few graphics to illustrate later on to show how the storm tracks tend to congregate where the SLP's are the lowest.
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Moisture in the heartland and Mid-West..
A good thing..





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Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning stoormfury..
Cape Verde season is to be robust this year IMO..
I have noticed the Indian Ocean and it's effects on our T/C season from years past and it looks to be in the realm of the 2004 season in comparison..
Hope I'm wrong.. :(


I hope you are wrong too!

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Good Morning Wu..
A very moist 67 degrees right now with dews at 62..
Partly cloudy with winds flat..
Pollen is outrageous..

Beach looks a bit gloomy right now..

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Quoting stoormfury:
The itcz has not been that far north in recent years ,six weeks prior the official start of the 2013 hurricane season. also the TWP is also showing an abundance of moisture in that zone. this looks ominous because what will happen is the formation of more storms deep in the tropics this coming season.


Good Morning stoormfury..
Cape Verde season is to be robust this year IMO..
I have noticed the Indian Ocean and it's effects on our T/C season from years past and it looks to be in the realm of the 2004 season in comparison..
Hope I'm wrong.. :(
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:
Quoting bjrabbit:
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.

I fully trust that the Russians will leak even more e-mails between these "scientists" proving this hoax the next time the polls start to show the low information person starting to believe this stuff.

This kind of non-sense cost how many lives in Britain this past winter?

Electric cars, windmills and solar will never replace good old coal and natural gas....God Bless Fracking!!




Windmills, solar and anything else they can do would help with that...being most people who'd have died over the cold winter, did because they couldn't afford to heat their homes at the extortionist rates of the power companies. Raising their rates consistantly, as go their profits constistantly, while a lot of people can't afford to heat their homes consistantly. Heat or eat as they say.

Speaking of, finally milder here. Been hovering round 50', which feels absolutely balmy after all the freezes LOL Been sorting the wee garden where I've moved to. Just need to find things easy to grow for this climate as just don't know gardening at all, but really want to grow somethings. Have planted my red currant and raspberry bush out of their planters and into the ground, so hoping at least those will do better this year.


Good Morning mitthbevnuruodo..
Long time no see on this blog..
My secret connections tell me the Raspberry and currant will do great..
Watch the tender veggies..
Go to Skyepony's blog for tips..
Good to see ya.. :)

PS..The rant from bjrabbit reeks of nonsense..
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If we don't get some warm weather here on the Eastcoast,forget about hurricanes! We will be hurled into another iceage!lol
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if the present conditions continue to hold, then the season will be more active than the april forecast. if the pieces of the puzzle are coming together as outlined by SLU, then I expect the numbers to go up in the early june forecasts
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33101
The itcz has not been that far north in recent years ,six weeks prior the official start of the 2013 hurricane season. also the TWP is also showing an abundance of moisture in that zone. this looks ominous because what will happen is the formation of more storms deep in the tropics this coming season.
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Quoting bjrabbit:
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.

I fully trust that the Russians will leak even more e-mails between these "scientists" proving this hoax the next time the polls start to show the low information person starting to believe this stuff.

This kind of non-sense cost how many lives in Britain this past winter?

Electric cars, windmills and solar will never replace good old coal and natural gas....God Bless Fracking!!




Windmills, solar and anything else they can do would help with that...being most people who'd have died over the cold winter, did because they couldn't afford to heat their homes at the extortionist rates of the power companies. Raising their rates consistantly, as go their profits constistantly, while a lot of people can't afford to heat their homes consistantly. Heat or eat as they say.

Speaking of, finally milder here. Been hovering round 50', which feels absolutely balmy after all the freezes LOL Been sorting the wee garden where I've moved to. Just need to find things easy to grow for this climate as just don't know gardening at all, but really want to grow somethings. Have planted my red currant and raspberry bush out of their planters and into the ground, so hoping at least those will do better this year.
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411. beell
Quoting StormTrackerScott:




Ok, my bad. Thought your graphic @ post 400 was current-not at 192 hrs.

Back to lurkin'.
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410. VR46L
Umm old Man Winter just dont want to let up this Year...

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Quoting beell:


Not a chance (imo)
:-)

Check out the continental surface temps along the east coast. This "air" would be entrained into any surface circulation keeping it frontal in nature. And the mid-level shortwave should flatten out as it moves NE up the coast leading to a surface low that will not deepen that much. And there is not a lot of time before this happens. Maybe.



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ESPI has gone down a good deal in the past couple of weeks.

ESPI at -139
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407. VR46L
Good Morning folks !!

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406. beell
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
SE US might have to watch this. We had some STS's develope from this situation just last May.




Not a chance (imo)
:-)

Check out the continental surface temps along the east coast. This "air" would be entrained into any surface circulation keeping it frontal in nature. And the mid-level shortwave should flatten out as it moves NE up the coast leading to a surface low that will not deepen that much. And there is not a lot of time before this happens. Maybe.

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CMC also showing some interesting developments off the SE US next week.



EURO
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.
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Euro is beginning to show a pattern that is seemingly conducive for early tropical threats to the SE US. Next week looks interesting as we could have our first invest to watch. In this pic below the UPPER Low/ surface low moves into the SE US and moves WEST across the Gulf Coast.

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GFS has rain in or around my area from hour 48 to 216....

and it never really gets overly warm either, just low to mid 70s for highs, and 40s and 50s for lows.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Good morning folks! 7-day Tampa Bay area.............


Those rain chances will get bumped up big time over the coming days. Good morning Largo up to 6.20" of rain for the month of April now as the rain just keeps coming on my side of the state.

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SE US might have to watch this. We had some STS's develope from this situation just last May.


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Everyone have a great Tuesday. Aussie, have a wonderful Wednesday.
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Morning all across the other side of the Pacific.


New Zealand's wet week
Weatherwatch NZ



A low pressure system that was responsible for seeing regions of New Zealand go from drought zones to flood zones this weekend will continue to affect the nation for a few more days.

WeatherWatch.co.nz predicts the low will linger in the Tasman Sea until about Wednesday before a westerly change replaces it.

In true Autumn style the westerly will bring a variety of weather with showers, some heavy, in the mix - along with long dry spells. The westerly is likely to bring the bulk of the rain and showers to western areas of both islands from Wednesday to Friday.

The westerly flow means eastern areas are likely to be sunnier, warmer and drier than they were last week.

Another front will sweep up the country on Friday and Saturday from the south west before a new high rolls in this coming weekend.

However the high is being challenged by rainmakers - meaning the big dry may well be reversed completely for some regions before May 1st even arrives. Certainly torrential rain across the weekend reversed drought conditions for big portions of New Zealand - but follow up rain is still needed for some areas, with perhaps the exception of western Bay of Plenty and eastern Coromandel Peninsula following the weekend floods.

Weatherzone 2013








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Low developing off the east coast? It was 1016mb yesterday and 1013 a few hours later. Still attatched to the front though. But that's how the last Andrea developed right?
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

A trough will move close to the islands Wednesday thru Thursday period bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.I don't like that last paragraph of discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST TUE APR 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP FAIR WX CONDITIONS
TODAY. TROF EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL AMPLIFY WITH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU. TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA FRI WITH IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU WITH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
FRI. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIR
WX CONDITIONS. ON WED...TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE DOM REP AND PR
WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE CORDILLERA AS INDUCED SFC TROF
WEAKENS PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. STEERING CURRENTS BECOME VERY WEAK FROM THE WEST SO
EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE VERY LITTLE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO H5 TEMPS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND WBZ HEIGHTS BELOW 12KFT WILL ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TSTMS TO BE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. ON
THU...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTH WITH TSTMS
FORMING ON THE SRN SLOPES AND MOVING SWD INTO THE CARIB SEA BY
EVENING.

TROF AXIS SWINGS BY EARLY FRI WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FRI THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE APPROACH THE END OF APRIL WHICH TYPICALLY
SIGNALS THE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER DRY FOR
THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX TIL 23/13Z. AFT 23/16Z...SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR AND MAY AFFECT JMZ/JBQ.
EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AOB 15 KT. A
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SWELL EVENT IS NOW FORECAST BY WW3 FOR SAT-SUN
WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL WAVE WATCH INDICATING 100% PROB OF
EXCEEDING 3-METER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 20 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 10 10 10
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Minneapolis needs 7.8" of snow from this storm to tie their record for the snowiest April, and 7.9" to break it. Go snow!


My good friends in Minneapolis beg to differ :)
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wikipedia=not a good reference only use as a guide
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Yesterday I enjoyed my 'spring break' of one day...

It's a beautiful 61 degrees, I've already been out watering the garden while the dogs were out. Highs of about 80 later on. Then it looks like a decent chance of rain for the rest of the week. Saves on my water bill.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Steak and eggs, toast, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy
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Quoting bjrabbit:
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.

I fully trust that the Russians will leak even more e-mails between these "scientists" proving this hoax the next time the polls start to show the low information person starting to believe this stuff.

This kind of non-sense cost how many lives in Britain this past winter?

Electric cars, windmills and solar will never replace good old coal and natural gas....God Bless Fracking!!




And of course we never are able to prove or disprove the effects of HAARP!
Which in my opinion is the cause for all of the wacky weather! but again, I'm labeled as a KOOK! by the GW crowd for my thought's, even though they can't disprove my tin hat approach!!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42905
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42905
Good morning folks! 7-day Tampa Bay area.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42905
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As of 8:45 pm HST, the highest total amount of rainfall on Kauai over the past 24 hours was 2.06 inches in Kalaheo. It is located on the southern part of the island, where it received torrential rain from the thunderstorm earlier today. However, wet weather is not over yet for the garden isle. WSR-88D radar data on Kauai shows that there are more showers ahead.
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273 TropicalAnalystwx13: Ran across this earlier:
The authors report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to solar activity. The relationship results from fewer intense tropical cyclones over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when sunspot numbers are high...
Anybody believe it?

I don't see any correlation that lends plausibility to the idea.



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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
802 PM HST MON APR 22 2013

HIC007-230800-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0074.130423T0602Z-130423T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
KAUAI HI-
802 PM HST MON APR 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

* AT 754 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST KAUAI...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE AREA FROM
HANAMAULU AND WESTWARD TO WAIMEA. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KIPU
FALLS...WAILUA...PUHI...POIPU...PAKALA VILLAGE AND KALAHEO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF HEAVY
RAIN PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2197 15973 2210 15929 2196 15932 2186 15944
2190 15964

$$

REYNES
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
colder is not the right word to use in the summer time more like cooler!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 123 Comments: 115517
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THE THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST OVER WATERS JUST SOUTH OF KAUAI HAS
INTENSIFIED TO THE POINT THAT IT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...AND SMALL HAIL.
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the relentless snow just keeps coming down across the Twin cities

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377. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Wabit~ That's a big area of flooding..


Skye .. yes it is a large area under flooding conditions .. probably 75% of Illinois has had flooding in the last week or so .. and any more rain will only aggravate the situation ..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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