Disturbance in the Northwest Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:21 PM GMT on November 17, 2005

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Hello all, it's Shaun again.

Disturbance in the northwest Caribbean

The National Hurricane Centered issued a Tropical Disturbance Statement for the disturbance in the northwest Caribbean Sea at 4:25 PM EST.
To summarize the statement, a hurricane hunter investigated the area and found that the disturbance off the Nicaragua coast had not developed into a tropical depression. In fact, areal coverage and intensity of shower activity has decreased significantly over the past few hours as evidence in satellite imagery.

The hurricane hunter also investigated the remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-seven and found no closed circulation. Suprisingly, tropical storm force winds along with shower activity was observed in the area.
When looking at the satellite imagery, it is evident that there is significant convection noted along with the remnants of Twenty-seven. It seems as though this system now has the best chance of further development over the next few days as it resides in an environment of weak shear. The farther north it travels, however, the more shear it will encounter.

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407. Skyepony (Mod)
12:15 AM GMT on November 19, 2005
snowboy~ 963mb
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38340
406. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
11:42 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Snowboy put me in for 945-990mb
405. mouseybabe
11:07 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
oakland... the worst is that citizens wants those of us who are insured by other companies to pay them a fee!!! why should i pay them? it's ridiculous...
404. mouseybabe
11:03 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
i'm going for 972mb
403. oakland
10:34 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
cgables,

I have Citizens because I live east of I-95 in Broward County and you're right. Premiums ARE rediculous and they want to increase it another 15% or more.
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7526
402. seflagamma
10:33 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Dr Masters has a new post up for Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40921
401. BwanaDogSWFLA
10:32 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Has anyone seen Jim Cantore??????

I am having a beer with him right now in Cape Coral.
400. LakeWorthFinn
10:30 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
LOL Ogal, let us know, so we can adjust Gamma's track!
The winners of snowboys last contest on Beta were:
DocNDswamp and weatherspirit
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7379
399. msuengineer
10:29 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
snowboy,

I know you only mentioned pressures, but landfall Monroe/Collier county line, 60-65mph winds, Monday 1 PM, 980mb
398. mouseybabe
10:29 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
rwd... i will get out, even for a TS... i can't take any chances with the place destabilized... but i may not have a home to come back to... oh, well, life goes on and i don't give up...
397. snowboy
10:28 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES GAMMA A LITTLE STRONGER...

...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.

FORECASTER KNABB
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
396. OGal
10:28 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Has anyone seen Jim Cantore??????
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19223
395. cgableshurrycanegal
10:25 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
SWFLKR, I hear you about ins cos, they think they rule and are allowed to. And if you try to go in with Citizen's who HAS to take you, the premiums are up the wazoo. Really stinks.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
394. GainesvilleGator
10:25 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
When Frances & Jean came close to Gainesville, FL last year we had sustained winds of around 45 MPH, gust maybe to 60. Power was knocked for 3-4 days at my moms house. People may want to make preparations on cooking the turkey from a gas grill or something.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 745
393. cgableshurrycanegal
10:23 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Gamma, being SURE to clarify which one right now!!! ROFLOL!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
392. cgableshurrycanegal
10:22 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Don Noe, thinks very nasty rainy windy period... by TUES should be very nice thru Thanksgiving. But cautions that is still a developing situation. And of course, the moisture is already entrained... we have NASCAR in Homestead and the big football game... gonna be damp...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
391. snowboy
10:21 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
got em sngalla and seflagamma
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
390. rwdobson
10:20 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
I'm gonna guess higher, 988 mb. it will get more wound up with a lower pressure after it becomes non-tropical and races up the front.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
389. SWFLKR
10:20 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
I say 974
388. SWFLKR
10:19 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Yeah and I just got a letter from Nationwide today saying that the time frame for insurance companies to not be able to cancel your policy is up tomorrow. They sent a letter right after Wilma saying they couldn't cancel for a certain time frame and now it ends. Charley was the only claim I have ever put in on insurance in my life besides health insurance. They threatend to cancel me if I put in any more claims and any non act of god claims will cause very high rate increase for two years per incident. Is a fire an act of God? LOL They also changed the water damage part of the policy. It only covers a said amount due to water damage from roof leaks or via windows blown in. Makes you sick after paying such high premiums all these years in Florida. To think I left Broward County 2 months before Charley hit for a calmer life. Too funny. Anyways my heart goes out to all over on the East Coast. I have so many friends and fond memories over there. I hate to see anyone suffer from these storms but the places I have lived in Florida hold a special place in my heart even thoguh I moved to SWFL. Lets hope we don't lose power again too.
387. BwanaDogSWFLA
10:17 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Link Here is the link to the actual article. Sorry I just posted the site at first.
386. seflagamma
10:16 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
snowboy, I think I left my on lefty's blog. it was something like 983 (I think)..please add it to your list.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40921
385. sngalla
10:15 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
982
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
384. snowboy
10:13 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
hie everyone, hard to believe we are dealing with TS Gamma in the 2nd half of November.

Anyhow, now's you chance at fame and immortality. I'm going to track people's predictions for lowest pressure of the storm again (like we did for (Beta and Wilma), so unwrap your crystal balls, fire up the computer, read the tea leaves or whatever and give me your fearless predictions for the lowest pressure that NHC posts for Gamma before it dissipates. I'll collect predictions from here and lefty's blog, update the list a few times a day and we'll see how it goes.

I predict a minimum pressure of 965 mb, and LakeWorthFinn is going for 972 mb...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
383. BwanaDogSWFLA
10:13 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Go to www.fldfs.com to read about the two deductible problem. Should be okay, at least that is what I got out of it.
382. seflagamma
10:09 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
gablesgal, I do so appreciate your specifying that you are trying to kill off "TS GAMMA" !!!! not me!!! LOLOL
Thanks
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40921
381. cgableshurrycanegal
10:08 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
elliston, you and SWFLKR aren't kidding. It became a real nightmare for too many folks.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
380. cgableshurrycanegal
10:07 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
rwd YES!!! DIE TS GAMMA DIE!!! If we start a mantra of it or something, would THAT work??? Am getting manic on the subject...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
379. dcw
10:06 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
12 ft waves? That's no TS!
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
378. EllistonVA
10:06 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
SWFLKR- A good point about the insurance, most people don't realize that their deductibles are a "per storm" kinda thing. A lot of people found that out the hard way last year. You might be able to fork out the $$$ for your deductible once in a year, but most people can't afford to do it two or three times....
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
377. rwdobson
10:06 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Dissipation is a real possibility...and i'm sure that's everyone's favored scenario.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
376. cgableshurrycanegal
10:05 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
there was definitely more water damage to roofs causing more folks to become homeless. more rain, just what is needed. ::sigh:: Our house clearly will be fine. Maybe we'll lose power again, I don't trust FPL, but oh well...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
375. cgableshurrycanegal
10:02 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Don Noe says it might disappear and go away due to the front causing alot of shear and morph into part of the front. We aren't s'posed to get overly excited. ARGH!!!
We will get rain, SUN-MON...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
374. seflagamma
9:58 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
I just checked the local news on line and they are still leaving open the chance it will get sheared off before hitting us. I sure hope so. I was planning on getting my Christmas boxes out of the attic this weekend also. Guess I won't now! LOL
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40921
372. cgableshurrycanegal
9:52 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
TWC says this is an amazing season... no kidding...
the gal says Gamma kind of snuck up on us??? Say WHAT???
Not forecast to become a hurricane but MON afternoon as a TS over So FL...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
371. cgableshurrycanegal
9:48 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
actually, guru, it has been mentioned a couple of times on TWC. It is mentioned in the trop weather updates and our local guys have mentioned it. However, you're right in that noone seems to give it much importance so far.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
370. Skyepony (Mod)
9:47 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
the waves in the area are reaching 12 to 13 ft
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38340
369. SWFLKR
9:47 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
I give up. I vow to never wash the pool deck again. The boat is up for sale for real,so I pray nothing happens to to it. It went in the paper today but is not covered or tied down. This is the gods honest truth. We bought this boat for a steal from my parents last year 5 weeks after Charley hit us. The make model of the boat..... Hurricane 2004. Does it get any better? LOL I was going to start getting the outdoor Christmas stuff out. So its all over the garage and will have to be moved to put vehicles in. I am so sick and tired of tropical weather. Lets hope it gets sheared and dies so no one has to deal with Gamma. A word of advice to anyone who has roof damage from Wilma and has not talked to their insurance adjuster. All damage was from Wilma. You will get screwed over so bad if it involves another named storm. Oh the lessons we learn.
368. rwdobson
9:44 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
mousey, you sure you can't get somewhere besides a unsecured mobile home for this? do you have a battery powered radio for potential tornado warnings?
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
367. turtlehurricane
9:42 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
i hav updated my blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
366. weatherguru
9:39 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
will this hurricane season ever end?

What noone is talking about except accuweather, is that the upper level low in the atlantic may become a sub tropical storm as it drifts westward it may take on more tropical characteristics
365. dcw
9:37 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
No, read the public advisory. It says TD27 regenerates...becomes Tropical Storm Gamma.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
364. weatherwannabe
9:32 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
windnwaves why would a highly educated uber lawyer/IT Temp watch such trash as Category 7: The End fo the World. I figured you would have far more important things to spend yout time doing like reporting warm core systems to the National Hurricane Center.
363. LakeWorthFinn
9:31 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
mousey, I hope your home will be ok - and mine too, along with everyone else's!
2005, no one will ever forget this year.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7379
362. seflagamma
9:28 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
they totally skipped the TD27 or 28 part I guess to eliminate any confusion and just jumped to TS Gamma...

That may be why they waited so long, they did not want a TD to deal with the number...perhaps???
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40921
361. rwdobson
9:26 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
It's nice that the people who make the "potential" maps are honest enough to put that chart up.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
360. TheSnowman
9:24 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Nice Chart there RW
359. BwanaDogSWFLA
9:22 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
I am taking my ball and going home. Charlie, Wilma, GAMMA????? Unbelievable. At least I kept the plywood and still have 20 gallons for the generator.
358. TheSnowman
9:22 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
no i know im just saying the track is very similar
357. rwdobson
9:21 PM GMT on November 18, 2005
Storms rarely reach their potential as shown on those maps (see the link) It's certainly not out of the question that this thing would lose tropical identity completely in the next 3 days.


Link
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.