Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

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It seems like just a few months ago barges were scraping bottom on the Mississippi River, and the Army Corps of Engineers was blowing up rocks on the bottom of the river to allow shipping to continue. Wait, it was just a few months ago--less than four months ago! Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on January 1 of 2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940 (after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.) But according to National Weather Service, the exceptional April rains and snows over the Upper Mississippi River watershed will drive the river by Tuesday to a height 45 feet higher than on January 1. The latest forecast calls for the river to hit 39.4' on Tuesday, which would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis, where flood records date back to 1861. Damaging major flooding is expected along a 250-mile stretch of the Mississippi from Quincy, Illinois to Thebes, Illinois next week. At the Alton, Illinois gauge, upstream from St.Louis, a flood height of 34' is expected on Tuesday. This would be the 6th highest flood in Alton since 1844, and damages to commercial property in the town of Alton occur at this water level. In addition, record flooding is expected on at least five rivers in Illinois and Michigan over the next few days. A crest 1.5' above the all-time record has already occurred on the Des Plaines River in Chicago. This river has invasive Asian Carp that could make their way into Lake Michigan if a 13-mile barrier along the river fails during an extreme flood. Fortunately, NPR in Michigan is reporting today that U.S. Army Corps of Engineers crews stationed along the 13-mile Asian carp barrier have seen no evidence of the fish breaching the structure, and it would have taken a flood much larger than today's record flood to breach the structure. A crest on the Grand River in Grand Rapids, Michigan nearly 4' above the previous record (period of record: at least 113 years) is expected this weekend. At this flood level, major flooding of residential areas is expected, though the flood wall protecting downtown Grand Rapids will keep the commercial center of the city from flooding.


Figure 1. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Thursday, April 18, 2013 over Northern Illinois were the type of rains one would expect see fall only once every 40 years (yellow colors), according to METSTAT, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) METSTAT computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 2, published in 2004 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) METSTAT does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Damages from the April 2013 Midwest U.S. flood in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of the impacts at the flood levels predicted include:

St. Louis, MO:
Major flooding begins. At this level the Choteau Island Levee, protecting 2400 acres, is overtopped. Also, Lemay Park just south of Lemay Ferry Road will begin flood

Cape Girardeau, MO:
Many homes in the Cape Girardeau area are affected and evacuations may be required. Over 100,000 acres is flooded. Numerous roads are closed.

Hannibal, MO:
The Sny Island and South Quincy levees are overtopped between River Mile 315.4 and 264.3, flooding 110,000 acres. The South River levee is overtopped between River Mile 320.5 and 312.1, flooding 10,000 acres.

Quincy, IL:
Missouri Highway 168 east of Palmyra near the BASF plant closes; Quincy Waterworks inundated.

Note that sandbagging efforts may be able to prevent some of these flooding impacts from occurring. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the latest rainfall and flooding records from this week's epic storm in his latest post. He plans on an update Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis are predicted to crest at 39.5', near major flood stage, on Tuesday. This would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis. Records at the St. Louis gauge to back to 1861. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 3. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on 01/01/2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940, after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flood-Drought-Flood Weather Whiplash
Residents along the Mississippi River have experienced a severe case of flood-drought-flood weather whiplash over the past two years. The Mississippi reached its highest level on record at New Madrid, Missouri on May 6, 2011, when the river crested at 48.35'. Flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that year cost an estimated $5 billion. The next year, after the great drought of 2012, the river had fallen by over 53' to an all time record low of -5.32' on August 30, 2012. Damage from the great drought is conservatively estimated at $35 billion. Next Tuesday, the river is expected to be at flood stage again in New Madrid, 40' higher than the August 2012 record low. Now, that is some serious weather whiplash. I'm often asked about the seemingly contradictory predictions from climate models that the world will see both worse floods and worse droughts due to global warming. Well, we have seen a classic example in the Midwest U.S. over the past two years of just how this kind of weather whiplash is possible. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. We saw an example of this on Thursday morning, when an upper air balloon sounding over Lincoln, Illinois revealed near-record amounts of moisture for this time of year. The precipitable water--how much rain could fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above the ground into rain--was 1.62", just barely short of the Illinois April record for precipitable water of 1.64" set on April 20, 2000 (upper air records go back to 1948.) Thursday's powerful low pressure system was able to lift that copious moisture, cool it, and condense it into record rains. So how can you have worse droughts with more moisture in the air? Well, you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.

The new normal in the coming decades is going to be more and more extreme flood-drought-flood cycles like we are seeing now in the Midwest, and this sort of weather whiplash is going to be an increasingly severe pain in the neck for society. We'd better prepare for it, by building a more flood-resistant infrastructure and developing more drought-resistant grains, for example. And if we continue to allow heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue to build up in the atmosphere at the current near-record pace, no amount of adaptation can prevent increasingly more violent cases of weather whiplash from being a serious threat to the global economy and the well-being of billions of people.


Video 1. One person was hospitalized after a sinkhole swallowed three cars in the South Deering neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago on Thursday, April 18, 2013. Witnesses said the hole opened up around 5 a.m. at 9600 South Houston Avenue, quickly growing from about 20 feet to about 40 feet. First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said. A fourth vehicle was towed from the edge as it was about to fall inside. The sinkhole was due to heavy flooding that broke a water main built in 1915.

Related Science
A 2010 study by Duke University scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the Bermuda High that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the Southeast United States. Thus, the Southeast U.S. may see greater than its share of "Weather Whiplash"--extreme droughts followed by extreme floods--in coming decades. Joe Romm at climateporgress.org has a post discussing the paper, with links to examples of how the Southeast U.S. has seen both extreme droughts and extreme floods since 2005.


Jeff Masters

Underpass flooding (aerojad)
Belmont St. at the Metra train station.
Underpass flooding

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Looks like I'm sitting in that dry slot for awhile today..



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Ya know, I see all the Global warming, i.e. Climate change debates, science facts this way, science facts that way, real facts,exaggerated facts, political motivated weather information, Doom and Gloom weather information, when I was in College I took a course on weather by an old college professor, We all know the kind, the one with the brown tweed jacket, bow tie, pants up to his solar plexis, gray hair sort of slicked back and of course his pipe! This old guy taught meteorology for decades, wasn't much on new technology, but one theme he always said, was (Well ya-know mother nature always has a way of even it's self), and this old guy is right more than he was wrong, I learned a lot just from one class from this old dude, when I see post in here that are this or that, of course related to Climate change, I just laugh, and remember that old professor, talking about mother nature.
With the current flooding, I think about the drought last summer, and think about how this old dude was so so right!
He is right weather WiLL find a way to balance it's self out.It was like summer and spring all last year..Just two months but Sandy came and changed all that.After when she came through so did the cold and wind.Yes we had some warm ups here and their but this winter was considerably colder than last winter and so is this spring.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:
Ya know, I see all the Global warming, i.e. Climate change debates, science facts this way, science facts that way, real facts,exaggerated facts, political motivated weather information, Doom and Gloom weather information, when I was in College I took a course on weather by an old college professor, We all know the kind, the one with the brown tweed jacket, bow tie, pants up to his solar plexis, gray hair sort of slicked back and of course his pipe! This old guy taught meteorology for decades, wasn't much on new technology, but one theme he always said, was (Well ya-know mother nature always has a way of even it's self), and this old guy is right more than he was wrong, I learned a lot just from one class from this old dude, when I see post in here that are this or that, of course related to Climate change, I just laugh, and remember that old professor, talking about mother nature.
With the current flooding, I think about the drought last summer, and think about how this old dude was so so right!


That'll be a comfort for all the environmental refugees, for the people who won't be able to afford basic food, due to global crop failures, for those who can't get water due to changing rainfall patterns, for those infected by spreading tropical diseases, and for those whose homes are destroyed by floods and storms etc.

Don't laugh too loudly. They may decide to take you with them.
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Here is the whole global weather in one loop.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Tropicsweather:

Looks like all that rain that we were supposed to get yesterday fell between here and St. Croix.

Carnival is ramping up with the boat races in a couple of hours. I think they're in for a rough ride!

Lindy


Oh boy,that was bad luck for you to not get the rain. Let's see if the next trough later this week brings the rain to where you are.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
Tropicsweather:

Looks like all that rain that we were supposed to get yesterday fell between here and St. Croix.

Carnival is ramping up with the boat races in a couple of hours. I think they're in for a rough ride!

Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ya know, I see all the Global warming, i.e. Climate change debates, science facts this way, science facts that way, real facts,exaggerated facts, political motivated weather information, Doom and Gloom weather information, when I was in College I took a course on weather by an old college professor, We all know the kind, the one with the brown tweed jacket, bow tie, pants up to his solar plexis, gray hair sort of slicked back and of course his pipe! This old guy taught meteorology for decades, wasn't much on new technology, but one theme he always said, was (Well ya-know mother nature always has a way of even it's self), and this old guy is right more than he was wrong, I learned a lot just from one class from this old dude, when I see post in here that are this or that, of course related to Climate change, I just laugh, and remember that old professor, talking about mother nature.
With the current flooding, I think about the drought last summer, and think about how this old dude was so so right!
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40 days left for 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season to start.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
SOUTH FLORIDA STAY ALERT TODAY..STAY SAFE DOWN THERE...................NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW MAY BE SEVERE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 60 MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN STREET FLOODING.

WATERSPOUTS: AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS, THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF WATERSPOUT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Good Sunday Morning..CMC..





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Major Flooding Continues in the Midwest

The recent torrent of rainfall in the Midwest has sent river levels rising across the region. Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Indiana and Michigan have been hardest hit states. Some river levels will approach and even break records. Numerous flood warnings are in effect.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Quoting indianrivguy:


Thanks, I have speaking commitments that do not allow the time, I have to be back the next day... but I WILL make it that way. I will hooking up with Dan Tonsmeire, Apalachicola Riverkeeper in Tally and try to mooch a 50 cent tour of his river, in trade for the same on mine. Nearly all my experience is in tropical, and near tropical temperate estuaries. The Apalachicola uses different adaptations to achieve the same thing... and it ALL holds interest to me.


The temp here got down to 46 degrees at the Naval Air Station..

hmmm, guess I better bring more clothes.


Tough schedule..
Time constraints..
I hope you enjoy and have a solid take away from your Tour on the Apalachicola..
(Watch out for the "sleepy" gators there..about once a year they get someone")
Good luck with your speaches as well..
Most of all Marty..
Be safe.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
Quoting pcola57:


Travel safe and well Marty..
Hope you can find a way to the courthouse here and dig up the interview of your grand fathers..
As the saying goes "If not now.."
Sometimes we just have to go for it..
Best of luck.. :)


Thanks, I have speaking commitments that do not allow the time, I have to be back the next day... but I WILL make it that way. I will hooking up with Dan Tonsmeire, Apalachicola Riverkeeper in Tally and try to mooch a 50 cent tour of his river, in trade for the same on mine. Nearly all my experience is in tropical, and near tropical temperate estuaries. The Apalachicola uses different adaptations to achieve the same thing... and it ALL holds interest to me.


The temp here got down to 46 degrees at the Naval Air Station..

hmmm, guess I better bring more clothes.
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Volley Ball nets in place now..runner on the beach..
And Sun 'fixin to rise..
All seems well this am..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
Well another one..
The temp here got down to 46 degrees at the Naval Air Station..
Broke Old record of 48 set in 1998..
Pensacola Naval Air Station is not a NWS reporting station..
However it is within spitting distance from me and it's my go to station..
The official NWS for Pensacola is the airport..(scareport..Lol)..
Thats over 17 miles from me..
And much more northward in the county..
I stick with our boys here on duty.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
Quoting indianrivguy:


[smiles] Not this morning Marvin :) Henry, Jed and the shrimp are on their own. Today is prepare for my drive to Tallahassee tomorrow day.


Travel safe and well Marty..
Hope you can find a way to the courthouse here and dig up the interview of your grand fathers..
As the saying goes "If not now.."
Sometimes we just have to go for it..
Best of luck.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
LONGBOAT KEY --
The Coast Guard has taken over the search for a 5-year-old boy who went missing in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday evening.

The boy, who was not identified, either fell off or was swept off a jetty at Longboat Pass around 6:30 p.m., the Manatee County Sheriff's Office said. Personnel from multiple agencies searched for him into the night before stopping because of darkness.

The search by Coast Guard resumed at daybreak today.

Authorities said the boy was with his family until he got caught in a rip current and swept out to sea. Signs prohibit swimming in the area because of strong currents.

Crews are searching from Bradenton Beach to Whitney Beach, in both the gulf and Intracoastal Waterway.

Family members are "very, very emotional," Longboat Key Fire Rescue Chief Paul Dezzi said. "What I hope they understand (is) ... we're doing everything we possibly can. We've gone above and beyond. And I hope they understand that."
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Good morning Largo, IRG and all...We will have to see how warm it gets today. If the cloud cover doesn't break, that will tap down the severity of the storms for our area. It will be a wait and see day!
yeah solid overcast here by me now..hope no tornado's today down south...nws doesnt think so right now..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning GeoffreyWPB !!..looks like today is a south florida event..stay safe down there ok


Good morning Largo, IRG and all...We will have to see how warm it gets today. If the cloud cover doesn't break, that will tap down the severity of the storms for our area. It will be a wait and see day!
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not a drop here,hope we get at least a shower today...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
good morning GeoffreyWPB !!..looks like today is a south florida event..stay safe down there ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Quoting pcola57:
Morning IRG..
Going to pick shrimp off that tree again??..Lol.. :)


[smiles] Not this morning Marvin :) Henry, Jed and the shrimp are on their own. Today is prepare for my drive to Tallahassee tomorrow day.
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Looks like Tuesday the weather gets active again.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
520 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW MAY BE SEVERE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 60 MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN STREET FLOODING.

WATERSPOUTS: AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS, THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF WATERSPOUT.

RIP CURRENTS: A NORTHEAST WIND OF AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE LOW TIDE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHTNING ...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY ACTIVITY THAT BECOMES CONCENTRATED IN ONE AREA
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF
THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
good morning folks!..was there any damage from that tornado down in south florida last night?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

More drier weather than what occurred in the past couple of days will be with us in PR and adjacent islands until mid-week when another trough will arrive increasing the showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN APR 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS
IT MERGES WITH A BROAD CUTOFF LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN RESULTING IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT MERGES WITH A BROAD CUTOFF LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AS WELL AS EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCALLY. THEREFORE FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST PR. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA
TAF SITES WITH ONSHORE WINDS 15G25KT EXCEPT AROUND 10KT AT JMZ.
BKN040 AT JMZ THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AT ALL OTHER
TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST AN IMPROVEMENT IN
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW
7 FEET AND WINDS 21 KNOTS OR LESS. BUOY DATA SUPPORT
AFOREMENTIONED TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 30
STT 86 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
Morning IRG..
Going to pick shrimp off that tree again??..Lol.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
Morning Largo!

Evening Aussie!
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Nam for this evening.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Nam and GFS put the rain coming northward around 5-6pm tonight..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Good Morning Folks! current GFS..not a drop here so far..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
924 PM HST SAT APR 20 2013

HIC009-211030-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0070.130421T0724Z-130421T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MAUI HI-
924 PM HST SAT APR 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF MAUI IN MAUI COUNTY

* UNTIL 1230 AM HST

* AT 918 PM HST...NEAR KIPAHULU...OR ABOUT 29 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
KAHULUI. THE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HANA
AND HAMOA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1230 AM HST IF HEAVY
RAIN PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2073 15609 2082 15607 2084 15599 2071 15597
2057 15614 2062 15619

$$
LAU
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone want a early season System in the Caribbean that moves into the GOM mid May????

CFS 732hrs....



CFS 780hrs...



CFS 876hrs....




CFS 912hrs...


Hmm not surprised at all I did say we could see storm early
Looks like early start to cayman season
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Where does the CFS get it's info from... the Weather Almanac?


I don't know. But I think they missed the memo on how these cold fronts ARE NEVER GOING TO STOP COMING THROUGH HERE! Lol. K. I'm done now. :) Was surprised that the gulf is as warm as it is here. Still 70f a long way from where it needs to be.

LONG TERM...NEXT RAIN CHANCE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER ROBUST
CANADIAN COLD FRONT BACKED UP BY ARCTIC AIR FROM THE PRARIE PROVINCES.
A MAJOR DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A MORE ZONAL FLOW SHUNTING
THIS INVASION TO THE EAST AND KEEPING OUR TEMPS NOT AS COOL. THIS FLOW
SHOULD SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON ENDING THE PRECIP LATER IN
THE WEEK WHICH COULD TAKE THE FORM OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH COOL TEMPS.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hmm 912 hours... let me get the stopwatch for that

Where does the CFS get it's info from... the Weather Almanac?
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Quoting aspectre:
736 Grothar: The first tropical system should develop between May 15 and 17.

EastPacific or Atlantic?


Yes.
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736 Grothar: The first tropical system should develop between May 15 and 17.

EastPacific or Atlantic?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
0Z GFS at 30 hours:

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Quoting Grothar:


The first tropical system should develop between May 15 and 17.


I was personally thinking May 21 between 7:56 PM and 11:29 pm is a much more reasonable conclusion given the position of the gulf stream and the current placement of eddy currents in the gulf...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7434
I was checking temps in the keys, its been very steamy, Marathon had lows near 80 and a high of 92 along with mid 70's dew points and a heat index of 102, that is August weather!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7434
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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