Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

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It seems like just a few months ago barges were scraping bottom on the Mississippi River, and the Army Corps of Engineers was blowing up rocks on the bottom of the river to allow shipping to continue. Wait, it was just a few months ago--less than four months ago! Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on January 1 of 2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940 (after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.) But according to National Weather Service, the exceptional April rains and snows over the Upper Mississippi River watershed will drive the river by Tuesday to a height 45 feet higher than on January 1. The latest forecast calls for the river to hit 39.4' on Tuesday, which would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis, where flood records date back to 1861. Damaging major flooding is expected along a 250-mile stretch of the Mississippi from Quincy, Illinois to Thebes, Illinois next week. At the Alton, Illinois gauge, upstream from St.Louis, a flood height of 34' is expected on Tuesday. This would be the 6th highest flood in Alton since 1844, and damages to commercial property in the town of Alton occur at this water level. In addition, record flooding is expected on at least five rivers in Illinois and Michigan over the next few days. A crest 1.5' above the all-time record has already occurred on the Des Plaines River in Chicago. This river has invasive Asian Carp that could make their way into Lake Michigan if a 13-mile barrier along the river fails during an extreme flood. Fortunately, NPR in Michigan is reporting today that U.S. Army Corps of Engineers crews stationed along the 13-mile Asian carp barrier have seen no evidence of the fish breaching the structure, and it would have taken a flood much larger than today's record flood to breach the structure. A crest on the Grand River in Grand Rapids, Michigan nearly 4' above the previous record (period of record: at least 113 years) is expected this weekend. At this flood level, major flooding of residential areas is expected, though the flood wall protecting downtown Grand Rapids will keep the commercial center of the city from flooding.


Figure 1. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Thursday, April 18, 2013 over Northern Illinois were the type of rains one would expect see fall only once every 40 years (yellow colors), according to METSTAT, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) METSTAT computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 2, published in 2004 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) METSTAT does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Damages from the April 2013 Midwest U.S. flood in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of the impacts at the flood levels predicted include:

St. Louis, MO:
Major flooding begins. At this level the Choteau Island Levee, protecting 2400 acres, is overtopped. Also, Lemay Park just south of Lemay Ferry Road will begin flood

Cape Girardeau, MO:
Many homes in the Cape Girardeau area are affected and evacuations may be required. Over 100,000 acres is flooded. Numerous roads are closed.

Hannibal, MO:
The Sny Island and South Quincy levees are overtopped between River Mile 315.4 and 264.3, flooding 110,000 acres. The South River levee is overtopped between River Mile 320.5 and 312.1, flooding 10,000 acres.

Quincy, IL:
Missouri Highway 168 east of Palmyra near the BASF plant closes; Quincy Waterworks inundated.

Note that sandbagging efforts may be able to prevent some of these flooding impacts from occurring. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the latest rainfall and flooding records from this week's epic storm in his latest post. He plans on an update Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis are predicted to crest at 39.5', near major flood stage, on Tuesday. This would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis. Records at the St. Louis gauge to back to 1861. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 3. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on 01/01/2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940, after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flood-Drought-Flood Weather Whiplash
Residents along the Mississippi River have experienced a severe case of flood-drought-flood weather whiplash over the past two years. The Mississippi reached its highest level on record at New Madrid, Missouri on May 6, 2011, when the river crested at 48.35'. Flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that year cost an estimated $5 billion. The next year, after the great drought of 2012, the river had fallen by over 53' to an all time record low of -5.32' on August 30, 2012. Damage from the great drought is conservatively estimated at $35 billion. Next Tuesday, the river is expected to be at flood stage again in New Madrid, 40' higher than the August 2012 record low. Now, that is some serious weather whiplash. I'm often asked about the seemingly contradictory predictions from climate models that the world will see both worse floods and worse droughts due to global warming. Well, we have seen a classic example in the Midwest U.S. over the past two years of just how this kind of weather whiplash is possible. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. We saw an example of this on Thursday morning, when an upper air balloon sounding over Lincoln, Illinois revealed near-record amounts of moisture for this time of year. The precipitable water--how much rain could fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above the ground into rain--was 1.62", just barely short of the Illinois April record for precipitable water of 1.64" set on April 20, 2000 (upper air records go back to 1948.) Thursday's powerful low pressure system was able to lift that copious moisture, cool it, and condense it into record rains. So how can you have worse droughts with more moisture in the air? Well, you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.

The new normal in the coming decades is going to be more and more extreme flood-drought-flood cycles like we are seeing now in the Midwest, and this sort of weather whiplash is going to be an increasingly severe pain in the neck for society. We'd better prepare for it, by building a more flood-resistant infrastructure and developing more drought-resistant grains, for example. And if we continue to allow heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue to build up in the atmosphere at the current near-record pace, no amount of adaptation can prevent increasingly more violent cases of weather whiplash from being a serious threat to the global economy and the well-being of billions of people.


Video 1. One person was hospitalized after a sinkhole swallowed three cars in the South Deering neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago on Thursday, April 18, 2013. Witnesses said the hole opened up around 5 a.m. at 9600 South Houston Avenue, quickly growing from about 20 feet to about 40 feet. First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said. A fourth vehicle was towed from the edge as it was about to fall inside. The sinkhole was due to heavy flooding that broke a water main built in 1915.

Related Science
A 2010 study by Duke University scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the Bermuda High that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the Southeast United States. Thus, the Southeast U.S. may see greater than its share of "Weather Whiplash"--extreme droughts followed by extreme floods--in coming decades. Joe Romm at climateporgress.org has a post discussing the paper, with links to examples of how the Southeast U.S. has seen both extreme droughts and extreme floods since 2005.


Jeff Masters

Underpass flooding (aerojad)
Belmont St. at the Metra train station.
Underpass flooding

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN VA AND MD INCLUDING DC/BWI
METRO AREA INTO SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191727Z - 191830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT


SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-19Z OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND SPREAD ENEWD
ACROSS VA/MD AND POSSIBLY INTO SERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT
IS CONDUCIVE FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT. TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED FOR ISSUANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
RESULTING IN SURFACE HEATING/WARMING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WHILE STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ADVANCE INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES.


..PETERS/MEAD.. 04/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 36608035 39697814 40217644 40037557 38937608 37667645
36537712 36608035
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Just out of curiosity, what is the water levels on the Mississippi river scaled to? Obviously 0 feet does not mean no water or no flow since we were having negative river heights earlier this year. What is the reason 0 feet is where it is at, because I have a hard time believing that it is completely arbitrary.


Link
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Quoting NRAamy:
Has the list of official hurricane names for 2013 come out yet? Would be awesome if the g name was Grothar.....or Geritol....same same.....

;)
You've been gone for like a milinium.We've you been?.I miss the purple hippo.
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Welcome back Amy...
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* AT 116 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RUTLEDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN MANSFIELD...SEEK SHELTER NOW!!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Has the list of official hurricane names for 2013 come out yet? Would be awesome if the g name was Grothar.....or Geritol....same same.....

;)
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The rain is not here... Just after 3am it started.



Loop


I'm going to bed now. Stay safe all.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
Just out of curiosity, what is the water levels on the Mississippi river scaled to? Obviously 0 feet does not mean no water or no flow since we were having negative river heights earlier this year. What is the reason 0 feet is where it is at, because I have a hard time believing that it is completely arbitrary.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting DookiePBC:


Shame you are not down here already. It is beautiful right now...sunny, warm, breezy. Hope it stays that way for the weekend.


Can't leave until the of a meeting at work around 3:00.......But already raining in Tally. Will drive safe this afternoon but this the forecast for Ft. Laud tomorrow:

Saturday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. South wind around 11 mph.

Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph.


Good enough for me.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8826
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Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7302
Quoting AGWcreationists:
It's interesting how little severe weather was in the PDS watch area in IN and IL. Hopefully the NWS is going to go back and figure out how they got it wrong and learn from it.
I'm certain they will. That is, after all, how real science is done--and few are better at practicing real science than the good people at NOAA...
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Quoting trumpman84:


I don't know -- did 'science' really predict them? Surely, I saw no predictions of a huge midwest drought in early 2012 -- you know -- before it happened. I see only blanket predictions like "more drought" and "more floods." Well, surely somewhere in the world, there is a flood going on right now and surely, somewhere in the world, there is a drought going on right now. So, as I said, a prediction that is correct regardless of what will happen is not really a prediction at all.

If I said, "I predict it will rain tomorrow." without specifying a location where the rain will occur, am I really making a prediction? Alternatively, if I said "I predict it will rain, snow or be dry tomorrow in New York City," is that prediction?


Incredibly simple; I'll convict you right out of your own words: You paraphrased the scientific predictions as "more" ("more drought"), and "more" ("more floods"). And -- referring to science -- the prediction of MORE most certainly IS a legitimate PREDICTION.

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I'm surprised there is a severe thunderstorm watch for my area now, severe parameters don't look very good in north Florida right now. We should pick up some decent rains but to me large scale lift and lapse rates look rather weak for a significant squall line.

Moisture levels again are very high but there isn't very much lift to get a serious squall line going.


However, maybe they see something I don't, time will tell. I hope the severe watch does verify though, I'd like to see some good action today :)

I think we'll get nice fun line of thunderstorms, but I'm not sure about anything very strong to severe, we'll see.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7302
Quoting yqt1001:
I just lost my power for about 10 minutes because of a snowstorm.

So much for the 10C highs we usually get this time of year . :/


Just like I got a forecast high of 59 early next week...and usually, we are around 75 or 80F.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
As I expected yesterday storms' main threat were strong winds...72 wind reports


It's interesting how little severe weather was in the PDS watch area in IN and IL. Hopefully the NWS is going to go back and figure out how they got it wrong and learn from it.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


SamWalkerOBX Sam Walker
Crazy "eye-like" cloud formation over the #OBX right now! #ncwx


wow Aussie!! I went on that twitter account and sometimes you have to find the humor in some things..

ACD ‏@Apdirtybird 1m

@ChrisMottram @samwalkerobx @wxbrad Of course we'd be invaded this week.
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jameson jenkins ‏@jamesonjenkins
chambers county.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
I just lost my power for about 10 minutes because of a snowstorm.

So much for the 10C highs we usually get this time of year . :/
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SamWalkerOBX Sam Walker
Crazy "eye-like" cloud formation over the #OBX right now! #ncwx
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...CNTRL AND ERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191635Z - 191830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN
NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AN EWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S AND SFC DEW POINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...DESPITE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES /CURRENTLY BETWEEN
25-30 KTS/ SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON /TO AROUND 40-45
KTS/ AS THE REGION IS GLANCED BY THE STRONGER MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE ERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
QLCS/BOW ECHO TORNADOES.

..MARSH/MEAD.. 04/19/2013
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Stop feeding the monkeys!! They will only poo in their hands and throw it at you (it's what they do)...
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Quoting IFuSAYso:


I didn't see complaining, I saw an attempt for discussion.
"I am getting a little weary of every extreme weather event being attributed to global warming, especially on this site." -- trumpman84

Do you see an "attempt for discussion"? Or do you see a complaint?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I am driving down from Tally to Ft. Laud this afternoon for a party down there tomorrow..........Will take phone pics if I encounter any inclement weather on the way. Looking forward to seeing the old home town again.

Gonna get over towards the beach and AIA rain or shine down there regardless.......If the weather is nice, no umbrella and stroll AIA in the afternoon. If it is raining, guess I have to hold up at the Blue Martini until the rain passes................ :)


Shame you are not down here already. It is beautiful right now...sunny, warm, breezy. Hope it stays that way for the weekend.
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Note:

In my (now old) hurricane score list I had 88 listed...now some new entries have bumped the total count to 91.
I'll display the new chart this Saturday with the 3 new entries...who else would like to participate... ?

my goal is to reach 100...just 9 to go.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting Jedkins01:



If so, why not just go to a different blog? Dr. Masters is not some personal internet servant designed just for us blog readers. Obviously the climate change phenomenon is something he is interested in if he frequently focuses on and studies it, after all he started this site and it is his blog, isn't it? If you do not share the same interest, you're welcome to go to a different blog. To complain about it won't help you or anyone else.


I didn't see complaining, I saw an attempt for discussion.
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11am SPC Discussion:

...SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THE SWD EXTENSION OF A LLJ COUPLED TO ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. AND
WHILE 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SAMPLED POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL YIELD A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN GA NWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA. FARTHER N FROM THE DELMARVA INTO
S-CNTRL/SERN NY...MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A LESS MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL RESULT IN DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT.

RECENT RADAR DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF
COLD-FRONTAL STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA...SERN AL...AND THE FL
PNHDL WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /SEE MCD 531 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS/. EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND TO TAKE PLACE NWD ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS INCREASING MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA
INTERACT WITH THE POLEWARD DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY NWD TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE THE OVERLAP
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST. HERE...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES
WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

FARTHER N INTO S-CNTRL/SERN NY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FORECAST...A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST IF A
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE BAND CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
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updated SPC map..pretty much the entire east coast is going to be included



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Quoting ncstorm:
Updated Torcon from Dr. Greg Forbes

Fri Apr 19
Scattered severe thunderstorms along and possibly ahead of a cold front in east PA, south NY near Monticello, west NJ, MD, DE, central and east VA, central and east NC, central and east
SC, southeast GA. TORCON - 4 central NC, central VA.


TOR:CON Details -

DC - 3
DE - 2 to 3
GA southeast - 2
MD central, east - 3
NC central - 4
NC east - 3
NJ west - 2 to 3
NY south near Monticello - 2
PA east - 3
SC central, east - 3
VA central - 4
VA southeast - 3
other areas - 1 or less
so today he lessened the tor-con for west central florida?..yesterday he had it at 2-3
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
Updated Torcon from Dr. Greg Forbes

Fri Apr 19
Scattered severe thunderstorms along and possibly ahead of a cold front in east PA, south NY near Monticello, west NJ, MD, DE, central and east VA, central and east NC, central and east
SC, southeast GA. TORCON - 4 central NC, central VA.


TOR:CON Details -

DC - 3
DE - 2 to 3
GA southeast - 2
MD central, east - 3
NC central - 4
NC east - 3
NJ west - 2 to 3
NY south near Monticello - 2
PA east - 3
SC central, east - 3
VA central - 4
VA southeast - 3
other areas - 1 or less
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compare march april 2013 and 2012/2013 april



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0940 AM TSTM WND DMG GRAND BAY 30.48N 88.34W
04/14/2013 MOBILE AL PUBLIC

POWER LINE KNOCKED OVER NEAR GRAND BAY. 46 MPH ESTIMATE.

0940 AM TSTM WND DMG GRAND BAY 30.48N 88.34W
04/14/2013 MOBILE AL PUBLIC

POWER POLE KNOCKED DOWN NEAR GRAND BAY. 46 MPH ESTIMATE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
Quoting trumpman84:
When you predict wetter and drier weather, your predictions are true no matter what happens. If there is a drought, they were right -- it's global warming. If there is a flood, they were right -- it's global warming. If there is a heat wave -- well that's global warming. If there is a cold snap -- well, global warming will change weather patterns to make it colder in certain areas too. Am I the only one that notices this?

It seems that a prolonged period of completely average weather with no extremes is the only thing that can disprove their statement. The only problem is -- this just doesn't happen. Long term average weather is simply an average of the different extremes which have occured over a given time period. I'm perfectly fine if you want to look at the trend of these averages and try to apply a cause, but I am getting a little weary of every extreme weather event being attributed to global warming, especially on this site.



If so, why not just go to a different blog? Dr. Masters is not some personal internet servant designed just for us blog readers. Obviously the climate change phenomenon is something he is interested in if he frequently focuses on and studies it, after all he started this site and it is his blog, isn't it? If you do not share the same interest, you're welcome to go to a different blog. To complain about it won't help you or anyone else.
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compare march/april 2013


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Quoting OrchidGrower:


Trumpman, your statements would hold water (no pun intended) if it weren't for the fact that science not only predicted these effects before we saw them, but explained why they would occur.

Perhaps you should take your weary self on vacation. That failing, I suggest you avoid this website. For my part, I would rather know the truth so that I can prepare for what's already happening around us (or at least know that it's coming).


I don't know -- did 'science' really predict them? Surely, I saw no predictions of a huge midwest drought in early 2012 -- you know -- before it happened. I see only blanket predictions like "more drought" and "more floods." Well, surely somewhere in the world, there is a flood going on right now and surely, somewhere in the world, there is a drought going on right now. So, as I said, a prediction that is correct regardless of what will happen is not really a prediction at all.

If I said, "I predict it will rain tomorrow." without specifying a location where the rain will occur, am I really making a prediction? Alternatively, if I said "I predict it will rain, snow or be dry tomorrow in New York City," is that prediction?
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pretty strong wind gusts south of my area......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
As I expected yesterday storms' main threat were strong winds...72 wind reports


Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
weather is changing so fast that everything they have learned will become useless in using to predict outcomes


Yep...completely agree

good afternoon everyone...busy day today but Friday!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS GA...FL PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191542Z - 191815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT MAY INTENSIFY AS
IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MAIN RISK
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED...WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...1530Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY
COLLOCATED WITH PRIMARY AND INITIALLY NON-SVR CONVECTIVE BAND FROM
NEAR ATL-LSF LINE SSWWD ACROSS WALTON COUNTY FL OVER GULF. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN GA AND FL
PANHANDLE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC WINDS AT BUOY 42039 AHEAD OF FRONT
HAVE BEEN VEERING...WHILE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER
E...INDICATING STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE FROM THERE
NNEWD ACROSS MAI AREA TO SRN PORTIONS FL/GA BORDER. FRONTAL AND
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING AS IT NEARS THAT
CONFLUENCE ZONE...WHICH ALSO APPEARS TO BE MESOBETA-SCALE
CONVERGENCE MAX WITH RELATED ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT. FURTHER ENHANCING
LIFT IS DIABATICALLY DRIVEN BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE ACTING ON UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND
1.25-1.5 INCH PW TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND YIELD MLCAPE
IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.

MEANWHILE...AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE...STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ALOFT IS MOVING AWAY FROM AREA...AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEEN
SHRINKING GRADUALLY AS 850-MB FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS TREND
HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP INCLUDING THOSE NEAR
TLH...JAX...AND VLD. DEEP SHEAR IS STRONGEST ALONG FRONT...WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 40-45 KT...WEAKENING WITH EWD
EXTENT. AT ANY GIVEN FIXED LOCATION...DEEP SHEAR MAY UNDERGO NET
INCREASE PRIOR TO FROPA...SINCE LOOSENING OF HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT
IS BEING OFFSET BY THEIR EWD TRANSLATION. WINDS ALOFT ALSO HAVE
SUBSTANTIAL COMPONENT PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...INDICATING CONTINUED
DOMINANCE OF QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE FORCING AND MODE.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...B MX...

LAT...LON 30288604 32018511 33628383 34418293 33548234 32968221
32348211 31038257 29458339 29638341 29728357 29908367
30118408 30028433 29918430 29578499 29668521 29628536
29838544 29918537 30108576 30288604
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

ALZ050-191600-
BARBOUR AL-
1025 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL
1100 AM CDT...

AT 1025 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR RICHARDS CROSSROADS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EUFAULA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
OSCO AROUND 1035 AM CDT.
EUFAULA AROUND 1045 AM CDT.
LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK AROUND 1050 AM CDT.


&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
Quoting trumpman84:
When you predict wetter and drier weather, your predictions are true no matter what happens. If there is a drought, they were right -- it's global warming. If there is a flood, they were right -- it's global warming. If there is a heat wave -- well that's global warming. If there is a cold snap -- well, global warming will change weather patterns to make it colder in certain areas too. Am I the only one that notices this?

It seems that a prolonged period of completely average weather with no extremes is the only thing that can disprove their statement. The only problem is -- this just doesn't happen. Long term average weather is simply an average of the different extremes which have occured over a given time period. I'm perfectly fine if you want to look at the trend of these averages and try to apply a cause, but I am getting a little weary of every extreme weather event being attributed to global warming, especially on this site.


You are mischaracterizing the information you come across. For the nth time, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to classify any single weather event as a result of climate change. Scientists understand this. The public and the media apparently do not.

Now, if the frequency of events or the extremes of the event are beyond what is statistically likely, THEN it makes sense to investigate whether or not the climate change is affecting those events. For example, a single 1-in-100 year event isn't out of the ordinary. Having three such events occurring within a 10 year period however may indicate something out of the ordinary is happening.

You also seem to have a misunderstanding when it comes to statistics. You don't need an extended period of "average" weather. Extremes happen, but in a stable system the "average" remains approximately the same over time. If outliers occur more frequently, are biased in a particular direction, or increase in their deviations, then the average will change accordingly. Since we depend on a relatively stable climate, changes in the climate average are of high interest.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:
Interesting line firing in the Gulf

yes i see that..maybe an interesting night ahead for us here along the gulf coast of florida..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I am driving down from Tally to Ft. Laud this afternoon for a party down there tomorrow..........Will take phone pics if I encounter any inclement weather on the way. Looking forward to seeing the old home town again.

Gonna get over towards the beach and AIA rain or shine down there regardless.......If the weather is nice, no umbrella and stroll AIA in the afternoon. If it is raining, guess I have to hold up at the Blue Martini until the rain passes................ :)
have a good trip and drive alert..those wind gusts are pretty strong now..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
weather is changing so fast that everything they have learned will become useless in using to predict outcomes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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I am driving down from Tally to Ft. Laud this afternoon for a party down there tomorrow..........Will take phone pics if I encounter any inclement weather on the way. Looking forward to seeing the old home town again.

Gonna get over towards the beach and AIA rain or shine down there regardless.......If the weather is nice, no umbrella and stroll AIA in the afternoon. If it is raining, guess I have to hold up at the Blue Martini until the rain passes................ :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8826


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS GA...FL PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191542Z - 191815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT MAY INTENSIFY AS
IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MAIN RISK
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED...WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...1530Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY
COLLOCATED WITH PRIMARY AND INITIALLY NON-SVR CONVECTIVE BAND FROM
NEAR ATL-LSF LINE SSWWD ACROSS WALTON COUNTY FL OVER GULF. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN GA AND FL
PANHANDLE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC WINDS AT BUOY 42039 AHEAD OF FRONT
HAVE BEEN VEERING...WHILE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER
E...INDICATING STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE FROM THERE
NNEWD ACROSS MAI AREA TO SRN PORTIONS FL/GA BORDER. FRONTAL AND
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING AS IT NEARS THAT
CONFLUENCE ZONE...WHICH ALSO APPEARS TO BE MESOBETA-SCALE
CONVERGENCE MAX WITH RELATED ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT. FURTHER ENHANCING
LIFT IS DIABATICALLY DRIVEN BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE ACTING ON UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND
1.25-1.5 INCH PW TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND YIELD MLCAPE
IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.

MEANWHILE...AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE...STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ALOFT IS MOVING AWAY FROM AREA...AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEEN
SHRINKING GRADUALLY AS 850-MB FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS TREND
HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP INCLUDING THOSE NEAR
TLH...JAX...AND VLD. DEEP SHEAR IS STRONGEST ALONG FRONT...WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 40-45 KT...WEAKENING WITH EWD
EXTENT. AT ANY GIVEN FIXED LOCATION...DEEP SHEAR MAY UNDERGO NET
INCREASE PRIOR TO FROPA...SINCE LOOSENING OF HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT
IS BEING OFFSET BY THEIR EWD TRANSLATION. WINDS ALOFT ALSO HAVE
SUBSTANTIAL COMPONENT PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...INDICATING CONTINUED
DOMINANCE OF QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE FORCING AND MODE.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/19/2013
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
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AHA!!! I knew it! The weather's conspirin' agin us.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.