Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

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It seems like just a few months ago barges were scraping bottom on the Mississippi River, and the Army Corps of Engineers was blowing up rocks on the bottom of the river to allow shipping to continue. Wait, it was just a few months ago--less than four months ago! Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on January 1 of 2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940 (after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.) But according to National Weather Service, the exceptional April rains and snows over the Upper Mississippi River watershed will drive the river by Tuesday to a height 45 feet higher than on January 1. The latest forecast calls for the river to hit 39.4' on Tuesday, which would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis, where flood records date back to 1861. Damaging major flooding is expected along a 250-mile stretch of the Mississippi from Quincy, Illinois to Thebes, Illinois next week. At the Alton, Illinois gauge, upstream from St.Louis, a flood height of 34' is expected on Tuesday. This would be the 6th highest flood in Alton since 1844, and damages to commercial property in the town of Alton occur at this water level. In addition, record flooding is expected on at least five rivers in Illinois and Michigan over the next few days. A crest 1.5' above the all-time record has already occurred on the Des Plaines River in Chicago. This river has invasive Asian Carp that could make their way into Lake Michigan if a 13-mile barrier along the river fails during an extreme flood. Fortunately, NPR in Michigan is reporting today that U.S. Army Corps of Engineers crews stationed along the 13-mile Asian carp barrier have seen no evidence of the fish breaching the structure, and it would have taken a flood much larger than today's record flood to breach the structure. A crest on the Grand River in Grand Rapids, Michigan nearly 4' above the previous record (period of record: at least 113 years) is expected this weekend. At this flood level, major flooding of residential areas is expected, though the flood wall protecting downtown Grand Rapids will keep the commercial center of the city from flooding.


Figure 1. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Thursday, April 18, 2013 over Northern Illinois were the type of rains one would expect see fall only once every 40 years (yellow colors), according to METSTAT, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) METSTAT computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 2, published in 2004 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) METSTAT does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Damages from the April 2013 Midwest U.S. flood in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of the impacts at the flood levels predicted include:

St. Louis, MO:
Major flooding begins. At this level the Choteau Island Levee, protecting 2400 acres, is overtopped. Also, Lemay Park just south of Lemay Ferry Road will begin flood

Cape Girardeau, MO:
Many homes in the Cape Girardeau area are affected and evacuations may be required. Over 100,000 acres is flooded. Numerous roads are closed.

Hannibal, MO:
The Sny Island and South Quincy levees are overtopped between River Mile 315.4 and 264.3, flooding 110,000 acres. The South River levee is overtopped between River Mile 320.5 and 312.1, flooding 10,000 acres.

Quincy, IL:
Missouri Highway 168 east of Palmyra near the BASF plant closes; Quincy Waterworks inundated.

Note that sandbagging efforts may be able to prevent some of these flooding impacts from occurring. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the latest rainfall and flooding records from this week's epic storm in his latest post. He plans on an update Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis are predicted to crest at 39.5', near major flood stage, on Tuesday. This would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis. Records at the St. Louis gauge to back to 1861. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 3. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on 01/01/2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940, after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flood-Drought-Flood Weather Whiplash
Residents along the Mississippi River have experienced a severe case of flood-drought-flood weather whiplash over the past two years. The Mississippi reached its highest level on record at New Madrid, Missouri on May 6, 2011, when the river crested at 48.35'. Flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that year cost an estimated $5 billion. The next year, after the great drought of 2012, the river had fallen by over 53' to an all time record low of -5.32' on August 30, 2012. Damage from the great drought is conservatively estimated at $35 billion. Next Tuesday, the river is expected to be at flood stage again in New Madrid, 40' higher than the August 2012 record low. Now, that is some serious weather whiplash. I'm often asked about the seemingly contradictory predictions from climate models that the world will see both worse floods and worse droughts due to global warming. Well, we have seen a classic example in the Midwest U.S. over the past two years of just how this kind of weather whiplash is possible. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. We saw an example of this on Thursday morning, when an upper air balloon sounding over Lincoln, Illinois revealed near-record amounts of moisture for this time of year. The precipitable water--how much rain could fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above the ground into rain--was 1.62", just barely short of the Illinois April record for precipitable water of 1.64" set on April 20, 2000 (upper air records go back to 1948.) Thursday's powerful low pressure system was able to lift that copious moisture, cool it, and condense it into record rains. So how can you have worse droughts with more moisture in the air? Well, you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.

The new normal in the coming decades is going to be more and more extreme flood-drought-flood cycles like we are seeing now in the Midwest, and this sort of weather whiplash is going to be an increasingly severe pain in the neck for society. We'd better prepare for it, by building a more flood-resistant infrastructure and developing more drought-resistant grains, for example. And if we continue to allow heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue to build up in the atmosphere at the current near-record pace, no amount of adaptation can prevent increasingly more violent cases of weather whiplash from being a serious threat to the global economy and the well-being of billions of people.


Video 1. One person was hospitalized after a sinkhole swallowed three cars in the South Deering neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago on Thursday, April 18, 2013. Witnesses said the hole opened up around 5 a.m. at 9600 South Houston Avenue, quickly growing from about 20 feet to about 40 feet. First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said. A fourth vehicle was towed from the edge as it was about to fall inside. The sinkhole was due to heavy flooding that broke a water main built in 1915.

Related Science
A 2010 study by Duke University scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the Bermuda High that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the Southeast United States. Thus, the Southeast U.S. may see greater than its share of "Weather Whiplash"--extreme droughts followed by extreme floods--in coming decades. Joe Romm at climateporgress.org has a post discussing the paper, with links to examples of how the Southeast U.S. has seen both extreme droughts and extreme floods since 2005.


Jeff Masters

Underpass flooding (aerojad)
Belmont St. at the Metra train station.
Underpass flooding

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237. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting psetas23:
whats the chance of seeing a tornado in tampa fl tomorrow


I'm thinking not very good. May see a strong thunderstorm though. Front should ruin the boating for east central FL & maybe bring a little rain.



Imelda was declared dead my the NAVY..NOAA showing it's likely last gasp. It's been sheared away since this morning.

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Welcome to Downtown Boston! (not my image)

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31498
Quoting taistelutipu:


May I add my forecast as #93? 19-9-4. Thank you very much.


sure...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you're the 92nd entry..tnks


May I add my forecast as #93? 19-9-4. Thank you very much.
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233. Skyepony (Mod)
Hailstorms have battered parts of central China's Hunan Province since Thursday, leaving three people dead, local authorities said Friday. According to Hunan's Provincial Department of Civil Affairs, the hailstorms have affected 105,000 residents and forced the evacuation of more than 9,400 people. Nearly 200 houses collapsed and 11,000 houses were damaged to varying degrees. The storms have also destroyed about 3,900 hectares of crops. Hailstones were as large as 1.8 cm in diameter in the city of Jishou. Wind speeds hit 22.6 meters per second at Hengshan Mountain, a renowned scenic area. Weather forecasts said heavy rain and hail will continue to hit parts of Hunan next week.
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whats the chance of seeing a tornado in tampa fl tomorrow
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TORNADO WARNING
NCC037-125-151-192200-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0005.130419T2128Z-130419T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
528 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTERN MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 528 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROBBINS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLENDON...HIGHFALLS...
HARPERS CROSSROADS...
GOLDSTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A SCHOOL OR OTHER LARGE BUILDING...GO QUICKLY TO AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR BATHROOM. STAY OUT OF AUDITORIUMS...GYMNASIUMS...
CAFETERIAS OR OTHER LARGE OPEN AREAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SEE. DO
NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 7972 3575 7962 3575 7944 3570 7912
3555 7928 3555 7930 3554 7932 3553 7932
3552 7935 3550 7934 3549 7935 3533 7972
3547 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 227DEG 45KT 3544 7961
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Quoting Articuno:


Should I expect intense storms in my area?


just outside the DC area you are at right?


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For those who may have not seen it yet,our friend Levi did a new discussion about the 2013 North Atlantic season.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14037
Quoting Hurricane4Caster:
Thanks! what number was I?


you're the 92nd entry..tnks
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By the way, the storm being tracked in Virginia did indeed produce a tornado. It touched down a little over half an hour ago and damaged multiple structures. I am not sure if it's still on the ground, though it wouldn't surprise me given its presentation on radar.



Quoting Articuno:


Should I expect intense storms in my area?

I don't know. That depends on where "your area" is. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31498
All looks quiet -- at least for the time being -- on the significant severe weather front, as broad upper-level flow should be positioned across the United States for the rest of April. Don't get me wrong, severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes will definitely be possible on many days for the rest of the month, but a big outbreak looks unlikely. The first smaller chance comes on Monday, when a dryline from central Kansas to the Big Bend region of Texas should spark a few thunderstorms. Moisture is limited, CAPE is marginal, and wind shear is pretty weak. On Tuesday, the dryline, cold front, and associated area of low pressure shifts eastward.

Greater moisture and instability on Tuesday may lead to more robust thunderstorm development across much of southeastern Texas, and all of Arkansas and Louisiana. Wind shear is still lacking, however, suggesting a relatively small tornado threat. On Wednesday, the threat -- if you want to call it that -- reaches Georgia and Florida. Moisture and CAPE are in abundance, but wind shear is nearly nonexistent and lapse rates are poor.

As we head into the final few days of April -- around the 27th, next Saturday -- another severe weather threat looks to come in play across Texas, once again with a dryline, cold front, and area of low pressure. Dewpoints AOA 60F reach all the way into Oklahoma and CAPE surpasses 2000 j/kg. Lapse rates are decent and wind shear is sufficient for tornadic activity as well. The problem, however, is that capping looks to be a concern. This is in the long range and subject to change. The threat shifts eastward the following day, but wind shear is weaker.

The GFS has other systems after this time, but that's getting a bit too far into the long range.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31498
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A favorable thermodynamic environment is allowing for an intensification of this squall line as it pushes across most of the Mid-Atlantic states. CAPE has increased to at least 500 j/kg across central North Carolina, with values at or above 1500 j/kg in eastern North Carolina. Dewpoints are well in the 60s (66F at my house, to be exact) and temperatures are in the low 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are very low, indicating a very small chance of marginal hail. However, low-level rapse rates are extremely high; this suggests a HIGH chance of damaging wind gusts with any potent thunderstorms. LCL heights are generally under 1250m, and bulk wind shear is at least 45 knots, suggesting good tornado potential with any discrete supercells ahead of the line, such as the current one that just entered Virginia.

Line 2 hours ago:



Line now:



Should I expect intense storms in my area?
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
512 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

VAC117-192130-
/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130419T2130Z/
MECKLENBURG VA-
512 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A POSSIBLE
TORNADO. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF
BOYDTON...OR 8 MILES WEST OF SOUTH HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

ADDITIONALLY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE OR LARGER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH HILL AND LA CROSSE AROUND 520 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE FORKSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 7826 3680 7823 3680 7817 3679 7813
3680 7810 3677 7806 3679 7804 3678 7803
3663 7804 3663 7831 3676 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 238DEG 34KT 3670 7824

$$

ZIMMERMAN
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A favorable thermodynamic environment is allowing for an intensification of this squall line as it pushes across most of the Mid-Atlantic states. CAPE has increased to at least 500 j/kg across central North Carolina, with values at or above 1500 j/kg in eastern North Carolina. Dewpoints are well in the 60s (66F at my house, to be exact) and temperatures are in the low 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are very low, indicating a very small chance of marginal hail. However, low-level rapse rates are extremely high; this suggests a HIGH chance of damaging wind gusts with any potent thunderstorms. LCL heights are generally under 1250m, and bulk wind shear is at least 45 knots, suggesting good tornado potential with any discrete supercells ahead of the line, such as the current one that just entered Virginia.

Line 2 hours ago:



Line now:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31498
the squall line
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Many tornado watches for the east coast...
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re: 145. 1900hurricane 2:43 PM CDT on April 19, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:

As unbelievable as it sounds, after looking at the RAP sounding for that area, I could actually see it happening! With such a robust dry layer near the surface, this is pushing wet bulb temps to below freezing throughout most of the atmosphere. This allows evaporative cooling to refreeze the falling precipitation. Assuming it doesn't all evaporate in that dry layer (difficult to do with that much dry air) and that the boundary layer just below it is a touch colder than the short range models are depicting, it would not be impossible for sleet to fall!




Hiya 1900,
Thanks for your response and the sounding. Note also the SW / WSW winds aloft slowed the progression, the mid level moisture / saturation maintained the post-frontal precip a good 12 hrs or so after sfc front passed after midnight last night. Frequently in past have seen such events, probably most common type set up here that results in a changeover to sleet and/or dusting snow in Winter - rare as it usually is here - within the tailing end of slow moving precip shield... barring a 1989-type arctic blast offering more substantial snowfall. Otherwise, we'll need to be right place, under passing cold ULL to get the frozen precip (ala Christmas 2004, etc).

LOL! My temp last night was 76F at midnight (after an 81F high), dropped to 58F by 2 AM... Been holding near 50-52F since daybreak.. Also noted during the evap cooling / short-lived sleet event my thermo fell from 51 to 49F, rising again after back to 53F... Given the air mass settling in and where skies clear out, record lows for Apr 20th will likely be challenged across parts of TX-LA tomorrow.

I'd heard of another report late this morn of sleet/rain mix in Thibodaux just to my north, and saw some myself. But the last one was pretty neat to see as was ALL sleet, yet only lasted 2 minutes / melted quickly where landed on warmer surfaces - glad by chance I was outside to witness it, along with another astounded neighbor... I also reported it to KLIX NWS. Bet a few other locations had some of the novelty sleet too. This date is the latest in season I've ever observed sleet, trace or otherwise here - we're talking 6 decades! Go figure... ;)

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...

VALID 192048Z - 192145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH AT 20 UTC WAS LOCATED FROM
NEAR INT SWWD TO NEAR AKH TO NEAR GRD. AHEAD OF THIS LINE SVR
POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AT 20 UTC...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY
AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 KTS.
THESE DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE MORE
DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF IT...A TRANSITION TO LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND QLCS/BOW ECHO TORNADOES
REMAINING POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM OF
WW130.

..MARSH.. 04/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...C AE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34168162 35168115 36487974 36547908 36567584 35447593
34497725 33177923 33518001 33977990 34208075 34168162
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possible watch there too..but 40% chance won't guarantee it!

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...

VALID 192048Z - 192145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH AT 20 UTC WAS LOCATED FROM
NEAR INT SWWD TO NEAR AKH TO NEAR GRD. AHEAD OF THIS LINE SVR
POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AT 20 UTC...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY
AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 KTS.
THESE DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE MORE
DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF IT...A TRANSITION TO LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND QLCS/BOW ECHO TORNADOES
REMAINING POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM OF
WW130.

..MARSH.. 04/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...C AE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34168162 35168115 36487974 36547908 36567584 35447593
34497725 33177923 33518001 33977990 34208075 34168162
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More than 10 inches of rain in numerous areas in the Central Lesser Antilles.......... and not a drop (or at best ridiculous amounts well below 1/2 inch) in the Northern Islands of St. Martin/Sint Maarten - Anguilla - St. Barths (Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Barbuda, and Antigua have been luckier though).

On top of that, we have strong winds and rough seas... making the weather really crappy and boring.

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Too much rain is getting ahead of the storms in PA, so idk if they will remain strong
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its popping off..

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Current tornado watches per SPC..more updates if necessary


take care!
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It's getting a little out of range of the radar sites, but from what we can see I wouldn't be surprised if there is a tornado on the ground with that storm entering VA.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7623


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...131...

VALID 192036Z - 192230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130...131...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL AND S CNTRL VA WITH DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO CNTRL VA POSING A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...WHILE SUPERCELLS ACROSS N CNTRL NC ALSO MOVE INTO S CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY SERN VA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THETA-E SURFACE AIR MASS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 80S F AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S F. LATEST VWP OUT OF
RAX AND AKQ BOTH SHOW VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS
AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 04/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 36577775 36578033 39687830 39697564 36577775
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The storm about to move into Virginia is looking good.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCC077-192045-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130419T2045Z/
GRANVILLE NC-
440 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GRANVILLE COUNTY...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KERR LAKE...OR 9
MILES EAST OF VIRGILINA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
A TORNADO.
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... KERR LAKE.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3655 7845 3654 7845 3653 7847 3652 7847
3652 7849 3649 7851 3644 7862 3647 7869
3654 7874
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 226DEG 38KT 3652 7862
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TORNADO WARNING
VAC117-192100-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0002.130419T2037Z-130419T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 434 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH
OF CLARKSVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIRGILINA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CLARKSVILLE AROUND 450 PM EDT.
BOYDTON AROUND 500 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE
RICHARDSON...FINCHLEY...EPPES FORK AND JOHN H KERR DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF ON OR NEAR JOHN KERR RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE
INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON`T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN
A THUNDERSTORM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13577
Quoting Doppler22:
I'm skeptical that much will happen in my area. Yes, we are under a tornado watch but I see just a line of storms forming that will brain damaging winds and maybe hail. I could always be wrong, but I feel like the watch for my area will be more Severe Thunderstorm warned then Tornado Warned


Well we got a severe thunderstorm watch in the big bend of Florida here and there really was no real reason for there to be. I've seen hundreds of summer rainy season days back in the Tampa Bay area of Central Florida that never get watch boxes but have much more favorable conditions for severe than around here today.

I did get a nice little thunderstorm here recently, nothing remotely severe or even strong though. Just some nice heavy rain, gusts to about 30 mph at most and a few rumbles of thunder.

The severe threat is indeed valid in Georgia through the Carolinas, particularly in North Carolina, also Virginia.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7287





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN SC...ERN PANHANDLE OF
FL...ERN/SRN GA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...132...

VALID 192029Z - 192230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
129...132...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREAS...OFFERING PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. COLD
FRONT CLOSELY FOLLOWS PRIMARY/WRN CONVECTIVE BAND...AND WWS MAY BE
CLEARED BEHIND THAT ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
ACROSS PORTIONS NRN FL NOT NOW IN WW 132...IN CASE ANY OF THOSE
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED...PER EARLIER COORD W/WFO JAX.

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND WAS EVIDENT FROM SALUDA COUNTY
SC SSWWD ACROSS WAKULLA COUNTY FL AS OF 2015Z...MOVING WITH NET EWD
COMPONENT OF ABOUT 25 KT. LOCAL ACCELERATIONS ARE EXPECTED WHEREVER
FASTER-MOVING BOW/LEWP ELEMENTS OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO MAIN SQUALL
LINE...BKN BAND OF TSTMS...LOCATED NEAR TBR-VLD LINE AS OF
2015Z...MAY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME MORE OF A SVR THREAT
FROM SAV REGION INTO SERN SC.

BUOYANCY SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK OVER WARM SECTOR...WITH MODIFIED FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE MAXIMIZED IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WHERE
SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. RIBBON OF
BETTER-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR IS EVIDENT FROM NRN FL NWD ACROSS
SERN GA THEN NEWD OVER CENTRAL SC...WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOWERS CAPE SOMEWHAT...IT STILL IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SFC-BASED SVR. ACCOMPANYING FACTOR OF SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIVE
POTENTIAL SUPPLEMENTS PRECIP LOADING...AS WELL AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FOR MORE ORGANIZED BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES...IN SUPPORTING DAMAGING-WIND
THREAT. 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE SHOULD PERSIST JUST AHEAD
OF MAIN QLCS ACROSS AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND

FRANKLIN GADSDEN JEFFERSON
LEON LIBERTY MADISON
TAYLOR WAKULLA

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS
COLQUITT COOK IRWIN
LANIER LOWNDES THOMAS
TIFT TURNER WORTH

IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

GRADY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADEL...APALACHICOLA...ASHBURN...
CAIRO...CARRABELLE...CHATTAHOOCHEE...FITZGERALD.. .GREENVILLE...
LAKELAND...MADISON...MONTICELLO...MOULTRIE...NASH VILLE...OCILLA...
PERRY...QUINCY...QUITMAN...SOPCHOPPY...SPARKS...S PRING HILL...
ST. MARKS...SWEETWATER...SYLVESTER...TALLAHASSEE...THO MASVILLE...
TIFTON AND VALDOSTA.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
GAC031-251-SCC005-029-049-192130-
/O.NEW.KCHS.SV.W.0018.130419T2024Z-130419T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
HAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
COLLETON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 423 PM EDT...RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...NEAR
CAPTOLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PREPARE NOW FOR...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
NICKLE SIZE HAIL...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CAPTOLO...HUNTERS...NEWINGTON...SHIRLEY...BURTONS FERRY LANDING...
LURAY...ESTILL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND POWER LINES DIRECTLY TO THE
CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-888-383-2024...WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just looked at the damage from the Mansfield, Georgia tornado from earlier today. It looks consistent with a low-grade EF2. The final decision, obviously, is up to the National Weather Service.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31498
TORNADO WARNING
NCC077-192045-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0004.130419T2021Z-130419T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
421 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEREA...OR 10 MILES EAST OF ROXBORO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAK HILL...
KERR LAKE...STOVALL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 7845 3654 7845 3652 7847 3652 7849
3649 7851 3637 7851 3629 7880 3654 7880
3655 7876
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 226DEG 38KT 3638 7880
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Found the article 1900 - 11/30 StL P-D.

"The result is particularly telling on the river, which was at -1 foot and falling Thursday on the downtown gauge. The numbers are an arbitrary creation from 1863, but the “zero” reading means there is only about 14 feet of water running beneath the Eads Bridge."

We have a frost advisory in S C IL tonight, may slow the morels a bit, they've started finding the little gray ones lately, haven't had a chance to get to my patch yet, hopefully this weekend. The wife loves 'em, and I could use some brownie points.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
bet some flash flood warnings go up here early morning..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Many storms in central North Carolina are rotating...not excessively intense yet, however.
The storm about to cross over into Va is showing a decent hook now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCC145-192030-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130419T2030Z/
PERSON NC-
410 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PERSON COUNTY...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SURL...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ROXBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
early SAT morning might get a bit hairy on the east coast..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Many storms in central North Carolina are rotating...not excessively intense yet, however.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31498

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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