Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

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It seems like just a few months ago barges were scraping bottom on the Mississippi River, and the Army Corps of Engineers was blowing up rocks on the bottom of the river to allow shipping to continue. Wait, it was just a few months ago--less than four months ago! Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on January 1 of 2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940 (after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.) But according to National Weather Service, the exceptional April rains and snows over the Upper Mississippi River watershed will drive the river by Tuesday to a height 45 feet higher than on January 1. The latest forecast calls for the river to hit 39.4' on Tuesday, which would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis, where flood records date back to 1861. Damaging major flooding is expected along a 250-mile stretch of the Mississippi from Quincy, Illinois to Thebes, Illinois next week. At the Alton, Illinois gauge, upstream from St.Louis, a flood height of 34' is expected on Tuesday. This would be the 6th highest flood in Alton since 1844, and damages to commercial property in the town of Alton occur at this water level. In addition, record flooding is expected on at least five rivers in Illinois and Michigan over the next few days. A crest 1.5' above the all-time record has already occurred on the Des Plaines River in Chicago. This river has invasive Asian Carp that could make their way into Lake Michigan if a 13-mile barrier along the river fails during an extreme flood. Fortunately, NPR in Michigan is reporting today that U.S. Army Corps of Engineers crews stationed along the 13-mile Asian carp barrier have seen no evidence of the fish breaching the structure, and it would have taken a flood much larger than today's record flood to breach the structure. A crest on the Grand River in Grand Rapids, Michigan nearly 4' above the previous record (period of record: at least 113 years) is expected this weekend. At this flood level, major flooding of residential areas is expected, though the flood wall protecting downtown Grand Rapids will keep the commercial center of the city from flooding.


Figure 1. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Thursday, April 18, 2013 over Northern Illinois were the type of rains one would expect see fall only once every 40 years (yellow colors), according to METSTAT, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) METSTAT computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 2, published in 2004 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) METSTAT does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Damages from the April 2013 Midwest U.S. flood in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of the impacts at the flood levels predicted include:

St. Louis, MO:
Major flooding begins. At this level the Choteau Island Levee, protecting 2400 acres, is overtopped. Also, Lemay Park just south of Lemay Ferry Road will begin flood

Cape Girardeau, MO:
Many homes in the Cape Girardeau area are affected and evacuations may be required. Over 100,000 acres is flooded. Numerous roads are closed.

Hannibal, MO:
The Sny Island and South Quincy levees are overtopped between River Mile 315.4 and 264.3, flooding 110,000 acres. The South River levee is overtopped between River Mile 320.5 and 312.1, flooding 10,000 acres.

Quincy, IL:
Missouri Highway 168 east of Palmyra near the BASF plant closes; Quincy Waterworks inundated.

Note that sandbagging efforts may be able to prevent some of these flooding impacts from occurring. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the latest rainfall and flooding records from this week's epic storm in his latest post. He plans on an update Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis are predicted to crest at 39.5', near major flood stage, on Tuesday. This would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis. Records at the St. Louis gauge to back to 1861. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 3. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on 01/01/2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940, after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flood-Drought-Flood Weather Whiplash
Residents along the Mississippi River have experienced a severe case of flood-drought-flood weather whiplash over the past two years. The Mississippi reached its highest level on record at New Madrid, Missouri on May 6, 2011, when the river crested at 48.35'. Flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that year cost an estimated $5 billion. The next year, after the great drought of 2012, the river had fallen by over 53' to an all time record low of -5.32' on August 30, 2012. Damage from the great drought is conservatively estimated at $35 billion. Next Tuesday, the river is expected to be at flood stage again in New Madrid, 40' higher than the August 2012 record low. Now, that is some serious weather whiplash. I'm often asked about the seemingly contradictory predictions from climate models that the world will see both worse floods and worse droughts due to global warming. Well, we have seen a classic example in the Midwest U.S. over the past two years of just how this kind of weather whiplash is possible. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. We saw an example of this on Thursday morning, when an upper air balloon sounding over Lincoln, Illinois revealed near-record amounts of moisture for this time of year. The precipitable water--how much rain could fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above the ground into rain--was 1.62", just barely short of the Illinois April record for precipitable water of 1.64" set on April 20, 2000 (upper air records go back to 1948.) Thursday's powerful low pressure system was able to lift that copious moisture, cool it, and condense it into record rains. So how can you have worse droughts with more moisture in the air? Well, you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.

The new normal in the coming decades is going to be more and more extreme flood-drought-flood cycles like we are seeing now in the Midwest, and this sort of weather whiplash is going to be an increasingly severe pain in the neck for society. We'd better prepare for it, by building a more flood-resistant infrastructure and developing more drought-resistant grains, for example. And if we continue to allow heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue to build up in the atmosphere at the current near-record pace, no amount of adaptation can prevent increasingly more violent cases of weather whiplash from being a serious threat to the global economy and the well-being of billions of people.


Video 1. One person was hospitalized after a sinkhole swallowed three cars in the South Deering neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago on Thursday, April 18, 2013. Witnesses said the hole opened up around 5 a.m. at 9600 South Houston Avenue, quickly growing from about 20 feet to about 40 feet. First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said. A fourth vehicle was towed from the edge as it was about to fall inside. The sinkhole was due to heavy flooding that broke a water main built in 1915.

Related Science
A 2010 study by Duke University scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the Bermuda High that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the Southeast United States. Thus, the Southeast U.S. may see greater than its share of "Weather Whiplash"--extreme droughts followed by extreme floods--in coming decades. Joe Romm at climateporgress.org has a post discussing the paper, with links to examples of how the Southeast U.S. has seen both extreme droughts and extreme floods since 2005.


Jeff Masters

Underpass flooding (aerojad)
Belmont St. at the Metra train station.
Underpass flooding

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I just walked over 2 miles from the library to get home in the mid to upper 30s with gusty winds. It wasn't that bad actually. I even got a picture of some snow that was still on the ground from last night.
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435. VR46L
Gotta wonder is this going to hold up or is the shield going to hold up




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434. VR46L
Quoting CEastwood:


I know the feeling. We just had about 15" of snow here in the Front Range of Colorado over the last few days, and our temps have been about 20 degrees below normal. We finally got a break, but now the prediction for Mon-Tues is 4-8" of new snow. This global warming is freezing our Spring. We'll be in summer before long.


Cool Handle CEastwood !

Welcome !

Hope you thaw out soon !

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433. yoboi
Very chilly morn......
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Just 41 days to the official start of hurricane season
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

I gave Max some numbers to put on his chart about a month or so ago, but that was without much in the way of analysis (read: I went with my gut). When finals are over, I'll probably end up doing a more in-depth analysis on my blog.


I hear ya..
Finals first..
i saw the ones on Max's blog just now..
Mine are there also..
Give us a heads up when you do your analysis for your blog and post it..TIA

BBL
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6884
Quoting pcola57:


Excellent 1900 (and seminolesfan )..
I see it now..
Sometimes I need a little guidance..
Thanks for taking the time.. :)

PS..Giving any #'s on the TC season?

I gave Max some numbers to put on his chart about a month or so ago, but that was without much in the way of analysis (read: I went with my gut). When finals are over, I'll probably end up doing a more in-depth analysis on my blog.
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Quoting Bielle:
SNOW! (east of Toronto, Ontario, Canada). I have had enough of it, more than enough.


I know the feeling. We just had about 15" of snow here in the Front Range of Colorado over the last few days, and our temps have been about 20 degrees below normal. We finally got a break, but now the prediction for Mon-Tues is 4-8" of new snow. This global warming is freezing our Spring. We'll be in summer before long.
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428. VR46L
Have to say despite the CMC and GFS hinting at something the SST is not viable for tropical development JMO

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SNOW! (east of Toronto, Ontario, Canada). I have had enough of it, more than enough.
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Yesterday afternoon (~1 p.m.) it was 91 degrees in Central Florida; right now (11:15 a.m.) it's 63.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Not a problem, it's the red area in south Utah on the first chart (500 mb vorticity analysis) and the dry area that ends up in about the same place on the water vapor loop.


Excellent 1900 (and seminolesfan )..
I see it now..
Sometimes I need a little guidance..
Thanks for taking the time.. :)

PS..Giving any #'s on the TC season?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6884
Quoting pcola57:


I guess I'm blind or don't know what I'm looking at 1900..
But I can't discern that vort over Utah.. :p




The little shortwave behind the longwave trough...

"Spinny-Spot" on the WV image...
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Quoting pcola57:


I guess I'm blind or don't know what I'm looking at 1900..
But I can't discern that vort over Utah.. :p

Not a problem, it's the red area in south Utah on the first chart (500 mb vorticity analysis) and the dry area with a bit of turn that ends up in about the same place on the water vapor loop.
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Quoting LargoFl:
about 10 degree's cooler today..feels great..........


It sure does! :)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
I would guess that the CMC is a little too excited to see latent heat release warm the lower troposphere, especially the upper levels still being so baroclinic. If you are interested, this future system will be supported by the vort max over Utah right now.


I guess I'm blind or don't know what I'm looking at 1900..
But I can't discern that vort over Utah.. :p
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6884
Horsehead Nebula
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I would guess that the CMC is a little too excited to see latent heat release warm the lower troposphere, especially the upper levels still being so baroclinic. Even on the phase diagram, while the layer from 900-600 mb (lower troposphere above the boundary layer) can be seen with a warm core, the layer above that (600-300 mb) always remains cold core, and this is supported by the how the storm lies within the divergent regions of the upper jet streaks.





If you are interested, this future system will be supported by the vort max over Utah right now.



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Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6884
well thanks for the email but i do not make hurricane amount prediction, because i do not believe any human being can predict how many storms and hurricanes will come this coming season..no problem at all for me but to me..its just making guesses..plain and simple..so no im not taking a guess ok..and thanks for thinking of me..take care
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm the only Floridian who you'll hear say this but I actually like the heat when it's seasonal for it. Somehow, rainy and cold Winter days make everything feel depressing.


Not the only one, CybrTeddy :-) If I could live in the deep Tropics I would; my plants would be so much happier. I don't like cold, don't like winter's short days. And the quick, hard rains of the tropics soothe my soul.

Maybe rainy season will come early this year? (my fingers are crossed!)
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Nam has alot of rain for florida tomorrow..we'll see...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
When making predictions for the upcoming hurricane season, I noticed that a lot of members here are making their own predictions with low hurricane-to-tropical storm ratios.  I realize the last two previous seasons featured high tropical storm numbers but comparatively low numbers of hurricanes.  However, something tells me that things may be different this season.  I still go with 20/12/5.  I would love some insight as to why some of you think we will have high TS numbers with a low hurricane count :)
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413. Skyepony (Mod)
Low in the Central Atlantic..

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Quoting LargoFl:
about 10 degree's cooler today..feels great..........


I'm the only Floridian who you'll hear say this but I actually like the heat when it's seasonal for it. Somehow, rainy and cold Winter days make everything feel depressing.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
about 10 degree's cooler today..feels great..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
409. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
its not only the CMC, the GFS has it as well but not as strong as the CMC..its something to discuss only and if you read back on yesterday, Levi talked about it as well but since its April and not June, its hard to believe..I get that..however, the GFS had this system crossing florida in past long range runs last week and going up the east coast much stronger like the CMC is showing but always cold core..the fact that its showing some warm core aspects to it now, it shouldnt be discounted..Watch the trends..

Also the Nogaps



I remember noticing it on saturday (last week ) and at the moment it appears to be a little something ... It is really early and the sst don't stack up but at least its something to be curious about and of course I understand why the folk in your area are watching it .. if it springs a surprise its your area that is impacted .
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Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6884
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF
TAMIAMI TRAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS.

WIND: SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.

FLOODING: THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR URBAN STREET FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROPOLITAN REGION.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6884
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SPECIALLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. A STRONGER WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
913 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

FLZ039-042-GMZ850-870-201500-
LEVY-CITRUS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
913 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NATURE COAST AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH THESE SHOWERS.

$$

TF
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
402. etxwx
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. This has been one tenacious winter! Spring? And it's not done yet.

Record lows likely tonight with scattered frost. Nice weekend with highs in the upper 60's Saturday and in the 70's Sunday. And yes another cold front will arrive Tuesday night with a chance of rain into early Wednesday.


AtHome! Did you just say the gardeners' "F" word?? *sigh* No sense in putting the old sheets and plastic away then...and I'll be dragging the heater back into the greenhouse. I guess we should go out and memorize the chill so we can relive it in August. :)
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
not a drop here yet but much cooler than yesterday...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Quoting srqthymesage:


wishcasting...14, 5, 5



Ok, I'll go ahead and guess....

22/8/5
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its not only the CMC, the GFS has it as well but not as strong as the CMC..its something to discuss only and if you read back on yesterday, Levi talked about it as well but since its April and not June, its hard to believe..I get that..however, the GFS had this system crossing florida in past long range runs last week and going up the east coast much stronger like the CMC is showing but always cold core..the fact that its showing some warm core aspects to it now, it shouldnt be discounted..Watch the trends..

Also the Nogaps

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
Quoting beell:


Hello over there.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2013

...NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE ESTABLISHED FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT FELL TO 40
DEGREES AT 630 AM. THIS IS A NEW LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE
DAY...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 44 DEGREES
ESTABLISHED IN 1901. THIS IS THE FIRST RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
ESTABLISHED IN HOUSTON SINCE SEPTEMBER 7TH 2011 AND THE LOWEST APRIL
TEMPERATURE SINCE A VALUE OF 38 DEGREES WAS RECORDED ON APRIL 17TH
1999.


Hi! :) Strange spring we're having.
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395. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting washingtonian115:
That is the CMC we're talking about here..constantly making cyclones.

Looking at the phase analysis it has such a weak, shallow asymmetric warm core..it's hard to call that a forecast for a cyclone..





That video in the entry is probibly the best video of cars screaming for help from a hole that I've ever seen...
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On the cmc it going to NY
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It on the GFS too!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
That is the CMC we're talking about here..constantly making cyclones.
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system off the east coast on GFS

CMC

NAVY(NOGAPS)
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391. beell
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ok, so maybe not completely unprecedented but... just ain't right ;) Good morning all. :)

NewsSETX 12NewsSETX
The latest Spring date in which a temperature of 40 or lower was recorded at BPT was April 25, 1910: 36 degrees

Apr 20, 2013 6:36 AM
Temp
35.8°F
0mph
Hi: 42°F
Lo: 36°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: NW 0
Wind Chill: 36°F
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 36°F
Avg Wind: 0 NW
Pressure: 30.18"
Rain/Month: 4.29"
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM


Hello over there.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2013

...NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE ESTABLISHED FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT FELL TO 40
DEGREES AT 630 AM. THIS IS A NEW LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE
DAY...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 44 DEGREES
ESTABLISHED IN 1901. THIS IS THE FIRST RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
ESTABLISHED IN HOUSTON SINCE SEPTEMBER 7TH 2011 AND THE LOWEST APRIL
TEMPERATURE SINCE A VALUE OF 38 DEGREES WAS RECORDED ON APRIL 17TH
1999.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
Quoting VR46L:


Thankfully you are getting a bit more Rain than you had the previous couple of years!


Yes, and I am grateful! I'm sure this cool weather will be a distant memory soon enough.
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389. VR46L
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. This has been one tenacious winter! Spring? And it's not done yet.

Record lows likely tonight with scattered frost. Nice weekend with highs in the upper 60's Saturday and in the 70's Sunday. And yes another cold front will arrive Tuesday night with a chance of rain into early Wednesday.


Thankfully you are getting a bit more Rain than you had the previous couple of years!
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Quoting VR46L:


LOL Its colder there than in the NE Atlantic !!!

57°F here


Lol. This has been one tenacious winter! Spring? And it's not done yet.

Record lows likely tonight with scattered frost. Nice weekend with highs in the upper 60's Saturday and in the 70's Sunday. And yes another cold front will arrive Tuesday night with a chance of rain into early Wednesday.
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That is the CMC we're talking about here..constantly making cyclones.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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