Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

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It seems like just a few months ago barges were scraping bottom on the Mississippi River, and the Army Corps of Engineers was blowing up rocks on the bottom of the river to allow shipping to continue. Wait, it was just a few months ago--less than four months ago! Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on January 1 of 2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940 (after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.) But according to National Weather Service, the exceptional April rains and snows over the Upper Mississippi River watershed will drive the river by Tuesday to a height 45 feet higher than on January 1. The latest forecast calls for the river to hit 39.4' on Tuesday, which would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis, where flood records date back to 1861. Damaging major flooding is expected along a 250-mile stretch of the Mississippi from Quincy, Illinois to Thebes, Illinois next week. At the Alton, Illinois gauge, upstream from St.Louis, a flood height of 34' is expected on Tuesday. This would be the 6th highest flood in Alton since 1844, and damages to commercial property in the town of Alton occur at this water level. In addition, record flooding is expected on at least five rivers in Illinois and Michigan over the next few days. A crest 1.5' above the all-time record has already occurred on the Des Plaines River in Chicago. This river has invasive Asian Carp that could make their way into Lake Michigan if a 13-mile barrier along the river fails during an extreme flood. Fortunately, NPR in Michigan is reporting today that U.S. Army Corps of Engineers crews stationed along the 13-mile Asian carp barrier have seen no evidence of the fish breaching the structure, and it would have taken a flood much larger than today's record flood to breach the structure. A crest on the Grand River in Grand Rapids, Michigan nearly 4' above the previous record (period of record: at least 113 years) is expected this weekend. At this flood level, major flooding of residential areas is expected, though the flood wall protecting downtown Grand Rapids will keep the commercial center of the city from flooding.


Figure 1. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Thursday, April 18, 2013 over Northern Illinois were the type of rains one would expect see fall only once every 40 years (yellow colors), according to METSTAT, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) METSTAT computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 2, published in 2004 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) METSTAT does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Damages from the April 2013 Midwest U.S. flood in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of the impacts at the flood levels predicted include:

St. Louis, MO:
Major flooding begins. At this level the Choteau Island Levee, protecting 2400 acres, is overtopped. Also, Lemay Park just south of Lemay Ferry Road will begin flood

Cape Girardeau, MO:
Many homes in the Cape Girardeau area are affected and evacuations may be required. Over 100,000 acres is flooded. Numerous roads are closed.

Hannibal, MO:
The Sny Island and South Quincy levees are overtopped between River Mile 315.4 and 264.3, flooding 110,000 acres. The South River levee is overtopped between River Mile 320.5 and 312.1, flooding 10,000 acres.

Quincy, IL:
Missouri Highway 168 east of Palmyra near the BASF plant closes; Quincy Waterworks inundated.

Note that sandbagging efforts may be able to prevent some of these flooding impacts from occurring. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the latest rainfall and flooding records from this week's epic storm in his latest post. He plans on an update Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis are predicted to crest at 39.5', near major flood stage, on Tuesday. This would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis. Records at the St. Louis gauge to back to 1861. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 3. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on 01/01/2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940, after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flood-Drought-Flood Weather Whiplash
Residents along the Mississippi River have experienced a severe case of flood-drought-flood weather whiplash over the past two years. The Mississippi reached its highest level on record at New Madrid, Missouri on May 6, 2011, when the river crested at 48.35'. Flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that year cost an estimated $5 billion. The next year, after the great drought of 2012, the river had fallen by over 53' to an all time record low of -5.32' on August 30, 2012. Damage from the great drought is conservatively estimated at $35 billion. Next Tuesday, the river is expected to be at flood stage again in New Madrid, 40' higher than the August 2012 record low. Now, that is some serious weather whiplash. I'm often asked about the seemingly contradictory predictions from climate models that the world will see both worse floods and worse droughts due to global warming. Well, we have seen a classic example in the Midwest U.S. over the past two years of just how this kind of weather whiplash is possible. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. We saw an example of this on Thursday morning, when an upper air balloon sounding over Lincoln, Illinois revealed near-record amounts of moisture for this time of year. The precipitable water--how much rain could fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above the ground into rain--was 1.62", just barely short of the Illinois April record for precipitable water of 1.64" set on April 20, 2000 (upper air records go back to 1948.) Thursday's powerful low pressure system was able to lift that copious moisture, cool it, and condense it into record rains. So how can you have worse droughts with more moisture in the air? Well, you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.

The new normal in the coming decades is going to be more and more extreme flood-drought-flood cycles like we are seeing now in the Midwest, and this sort of weather whiplash is going to be an increasingly severe pain in the neck for society. We'd better prepare for it, by building a more flood-resistant infrastructure and developing more drought-resistant grains, for example. And if we continue to allow heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue to build up in the atmosphere at the current near-record pace, no amount of adaptation can prevent increasingly more violent cases of weather whiplash from being a serious threat to the global economy and the well-being of billions of people.


Video 1. One person was hospitalized after a sinkhole swallowed three cars in the South Deering neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago on Thursday, April 18, 2013. Witnesses said the hole opened up around 5 a.m. at 9600 South Houston Avenue, quickly growing from about 20 feet to about 40 feet. First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said. A fourth vehicle was towed from the edge as it was about to fall inside. The sinkhole was due to heavy flooding that broke a water main built in 1915.

Related Science
A 2010 study by Duke University scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the Bermuda High that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the Southeast United States. Thus, the Southeast U.S. may see greater than its share of "Weather Whiplash"--extreme droughts followed by extreme floods--in coming decades. Joe Romm at climateporgress.org has a post discussing the paper, with links to examples of how the Southeast U.S. has seen both extreme droughts and extreme floods since 2005.


Jeff Masters

Underpass flooding (aerojad)
Belmont St. at the Metra train station.
Underpass flooding

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Emergency Declaration number 3362 on Apr 18, 2013


Massachusetts Explosions (EM-3362)


Incident period:

Monday, April 15, 2013 to Monday, April 22, 2013

Emergency Declaration declared on April 17, 2013
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Alright, time to go outside and enjoy what little warmth we will have today. It was 36F this morning in South MS...in late April. Luckily, next week looks warmer. Oh wait...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I missed being there for Debby... just saying


Ugh, just the thought of Debby makes me want to puke. What an annoying storm.

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's considered unkind is highly subjective towards who the comment is being intended for. You and I both know both of us are being "nice".

Count me in as being bored.
Same here.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


True. I think we need a hurricane to track. That way, I can make fun of your forecasts/argue with you in chat.


I missed being there for Debby... just saying
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's considered unkind is highly subjective towards who the comment is being intended for. You and I both know both of us are being "nice".

Count me in as being bored.


True. I think we need a hurricane to track. That way, I can make fun of your forecasts/argue with you in chat.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Welcome back Pat.

12z Euro came in much stronger than its previous runs for that low off the East Coast, still not really strong but much more than the 0z run which hardly showed anything.



I could end up with some heavy rain and wind if the models trend west some.
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Quoting Patrap:
Hiya taz.

Good to be around.

Hope ya well dude.



You haven't been around in a long time and you come in and pick up right where you left off, as if you never left (posting maps, quotes, etc.) Now that is a veteran in my book.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, well. He IS alive...


The new hard drive functions better dan da old n' too.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Eh, that's debatable. This is what happens when I get bored: incessant rambling. Look who is being unkind, now.

What's considered unkind is highly subjective towards who the comment is being intended for. You and I both know both of us are being "nice".

Count me in as being bored.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Hiya KOTG and taz.

Good to be around.

Hope ya well dude's.

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Scattered showers will continue to move thru PR this afternoon and tonight.Sunday and the early part of next week looks more dry.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT APR 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A LARGER CUTOFF LOW ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG AND CONTINUE TO CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND A FEW DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MIMIC-TPW AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR AREA
BY TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION...GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DOMINATE OVER THAT LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING..WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT THAN IT HAS
BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE AS
LOW AS ONE INCH WITH AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND AND MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST 22/00Z. AS A RESULT...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TJSJ...TJPS...
TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 7 FT OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS
WILL GO BELOW 7 FEET AS WELL AS WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 85 / 60 60 20 20
STT 74 86 75 85 / 40 40 20 20
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Quoting Patrap:
First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said.


If a street sinkhole gets 3 cars in one morn,,is it a Birdie?



Well, well. He IS alive...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
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Quoting Tazmanian:



am not being rude you nut head

if you dont like what some says too some one then ingor them and this move on or it will this turn in too a big old fight that will nevere end !!!!!!


taz behave yourself will ya you know better

hey pat good to see ya

gro the east pacfic will be spinning one up soon another week or so
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think it's suffice to say you've lost your mind. Though I believe it would probably be equally as correct to assume you never had one to begin with. :)


Eh, that's debatable. This is what happens when I get bored: incessant rambling. Look who is being unkind, now.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Congrats for surpassing te 100 mark. You think that before July 1rst it can reach 150-200 with the last minute entries?


yeah thanks!

my main objective was to reach 100... I still welcome any more further than that..

The list getting bigger??? no problem...I have no problem with expanding it and saving it...
the real size of it (before I shrink it is 15"x50"), yeah that big!

My mac can store that with no problem but I don't keep it there. I bought a storage device which can save even more stuff than my computer.

let the entries continue...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting MississippiWx:


Nah, it just grows on trees around here. Unfortunately, all of our trees were blown down during the tornado, so it's running low.

I think it's suffice to say you've lost your mind. Though I believe it would probably be equally as correct to assume you never had one to begin with. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said.


If a street sinkhole gets 3 cars in one morn,,is it a Birdie?

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
A new blog with the latest hurricane chart...now reaching 102 entries!!
I uploaded a video and it's there too, check it out. Use 1080p for the best view if you'd like.

I had some problems embedding it because the old embedding format was not there (option removed), so I had to lookup what the problem was, over half hour reading nonsense until I figured it out...

anyway..go right ahead and have a look.

At the end of the video I talk a bit, so don't freak out.


Congrats for surpassing the 100 mark. You think that before July 1rst it can reach 150-200 with the last minute entries?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A new blog with the latest hurricane chart...now reaching 102 entries!!
I uploaded a video and it's there too, check it out. Use 1080p for the best view if you'd like.

I had some problems embedding it because the old embedding format was not there (option removed), so I had to lookup what the problem was, over half hour reading nonsense until I figured it out...

anyway..go right ahead and have a look.

At the end of the video I talk a bit, so don't freak out.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Obviously not in Hattiesburg.


Nah, it just grows on trees around here. Unfortunately, all of our trees were blown down during the tornado, so it's running low.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting MississippiWx:


The trough extending to the south and east from it is all I need to see. If that's how it pans out, no subtropical named system.

Yeah, there's almost no chance it gets even close to name-worthy. It'll probably be more like what the GFS shows.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


You mean you can buy jeans that have niceness?? Where do you find those? ;-)

Obviously not in Hattiesburg.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting Grothar:


Niceness doesn't come in a bottle; it comes in your genes.


You mean you can buy jeans that have niceness?? Where do you find those? ;-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Vertical Instability in the caribbean is above average

In the Tropical Atlantic is just below average
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z CMC still showing that interesting, somewhat warm core low off the East Coast.







The trough extending to the south and east from it is all I need to see. If that's how it pans out, no subtropical named system.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting MississippiWx:


Taz, you sure have become old and grumpy over the years. You should look into Grothar's meds. He's older, yet always happy. :-)


Niceness doesn't come in a bottle; it comes in your genes.
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
243 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-202200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
243 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

.NOW...
A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF AND
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT MARTIN
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. BEHIND THE FRONT...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH AND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR FROM LAKE COUNTY TO VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH 6
PM. ACROSS OSCEOLA...BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH TO
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

15
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Depth 26.C Isotherm
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12z CMC still showing that interesting, somewhat warm core low off the East Coast.





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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
By the way, Environment Canada has confirmed a tornado touched down in Shelburne, Ontario[,Canada] Thursday night, part of a line severe thunderstorms that produced gusty winds and torrential rainfall -- leading to flooding -- across much of the providence. A tornado in April in Ontario is relatively uncommon, but what makes this one especially...special...is that it is the first Canadian tornado to ever receive a rating on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. It was rated a high-end EF1.


Especially special, eh? That's usually the way I describe you to other people. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Gro, you know the correct term is "rocket fuel" :)


I usually wait until mid-May before I use the term "rocket fuel" I usually leave that for GeoffWPB.
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By the way, Environment Canada has confirmed a tornado touched down in Shelburne, Ontario[,Canada] Thursday night, part of a line severe thunderstorms that produced gusty winds and torrential rainfall -- leading to flooding -- across much of the providence. A tornado in April in Ontario is relatively uncommon, but what makes this one especially...special...is that it is the first Canadian tornado to ever receive a rating on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. It was rated a high-end EF1.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
here comes the NEXT front wens..................
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Quoting Grothar:
Jet fuel in the in Eastern Pacific and the underarm of Africa.


Gro, you know the correct term is "rocket fuel" :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



am not being rude you nut head

if you dont like what some says too some one then ingor them and this move on or it will this turn in too a big old fight that will nevere end !!!!!!


Taz, you sure have become old and grumpy over the years. You should look into Grothar's meds. He's older, yet always happy. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting Caneguy:


I would like to add mine. 18/11/6. Great job on the chart bud!

Edit: Didn't see you had mine already listed! Disregard today's numbers :)
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Check out those Great Lakes water temperatures, Milwaukee may have to be on alert this year :)


I didn't realize they were so high.
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rains still headed northeastward.................
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The Human Impact of Tropical Cyclones: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

APRIL 16, 2013

ABSTRACT

Background.
Cyclones have significantly affected populations in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Americas over the past quarter of a century. Future vulnerability to cyclones will increase due to factors including population growth, urbanization, increasing coastal settlement, and global warming. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of cyclones on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters.
...

There were 412,644 deaths, 290,654 injured, and 466.1 million people affected by cyclones between 1980 and 2009, and the mortality and injury burden was concentrated in less developed nations of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of cyclone-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries male gender was associated with increased mortality risk, whereas females experienced higher mortality in less developed countries.

http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/the-hu man-impact-of-tropical-cyclones-a-historical-revie w-of-events-1980-2009-and-systematic-literature-re view/

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Gro. Here is the more focused temps in GOM, Caribbean,Western Atlantic and EPAC.



It's hard for me to focus these days.
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Here is the latest update as of April 20 for the MDR.



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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


27 named storms and 18 hurricanes???
You're the 99th.

ONE MORE! who wants to be 100! and reach my goal?!


I would like to add mine. 18/11/6. Great job on the chart bud!
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491. JRRP
my numbers are
NS: 17
H: 10
MH: 6
C5: 2
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Quoting Grothar:
Jet fuel in the in Eastern Pacific and the underarm of Africa.



Check out those Great Lakes water temperatures, Milwaukee may have to be on alert this year :)
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Quoting Grothar:
Jet fuel in the in Eastern Pacific and the underarm of Africa.



...That's a lot of kerosene : )
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hey guys
hmm just noticed that the ITCZ/Monsoon trough in the atlantic is above 0N all of it from 50W to africa

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Quoting Grothar:
Jet fuel in the in Eastern Pacific and the underarm of Africa.



Hi Gro. Here is the more focused temps in GOM, Caribbean,Western Atlantic and EPAC.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.