Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

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It seems like just a few months ago barges were scraping bottom on the Mississippi River, and the Army Corps of Engineers was blowing up rocks on the bottom of the river to allow shipping to continue. Wait, it was just a few months ago--less than four months ago! Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on January 1 of 2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940 (after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.) But according to National Weather Service, the exceptional April rains and snows over the Upper Mississippi River watershed will drive the river by Tuesday to a height 45 feet higher than on January 1. The latest forecast calls for the river to hit 39.4' on Tuesday, which would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis, where flood records date back to 1861. Damaging major flooding is expected along a 250-mile stretch of the Mississippi from Quincy, Illinois to Thebes, Illinois next week. At the Alton, Illinois gauge, upstream from St.Louis, a flood height of 34' is expected on Tuesday. This would be the 6th highest flood in Alton since 1844, and damages to commercial property in the town of Alton occur at this water level. In addition, record flooding is expected on at least five rivers in Illinois and Michigan over the next few days. A crest 1.5' above the all-time record has already occurred on the Des Plaines River in Chicago. This river has invasive Asian Carp that could make their way into Lake Michigan if a 13-mile barrier along the river fails during an extreme flood. Fortunately, NPR in Michigan is reporting today that U.S. Army Corps of Engineers crews stationed along the 13-mile Asian carp barrier have seen no evidence of the fish breaching the structure, and it would have taken a flood much larger than today's record flood to breach the structure. A crest on the Grand River in Grand Rapids, Michigan nearly 4' above the previous record (period of record: at least 113 years) is expected this weekend. At this flood level, major flooding of residential areas is expected, though the flood wall protecting downtown Grand Rapids will keep the commercial center of the city from flooding.


Figure 1. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Thursday, April 18, 2013 over Northern Illinois were the type of rains one would expect see fall only once every 40 years (yellow colors), according to METSTAT, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) METSTAT computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 2, published in 2004 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) METSTAT does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Damages from the April 2013 Midwest U.S. flood in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of the impacts at the flood levels predicted include:

St. Louis, MO:
Major flooding begins. At this level the Choteau Island Levee, protecting 2400 acres, is overtopped. Also, Lemay Park just south of Lemay Ferry Road will begin flood

Cape Girardeau, MO:
Many homes in the Cape Girardeau area are affected and evacuations may be required. Over 100,000 acres is flooded. Numerous roads are closed.

Hannibal, MO:
The Sny Island and South Quincy levees are overtopped between River Mile 315.4 and 264.3, flooding 110,000 acres. The South River levee is overtopped between River Mile 320.5 and 312.1, flooding 10,000 acres.

Quincy, IL:
Missouri Highway 168 east of Palmyra near the BASF plant closes; Quincy Waterworks inundated.

Note that sandbagging efforts may be able to prevent some of these flooding impacts from occurring. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the latest rainfall and flooding records from this week's epic storm in his latest post. He plans on an update Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis are predicted to crest at 39.5', near major flood stage, on Tuesday. This would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis. Records at the St. Louis gauge to back to 1861. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 3. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on 01/01/2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940, after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flood-Drought-Flood Weather Whiplash
Residents along the Mississippi River have experienced a severe case of flood-drought-flood weather whiplash over the past two years. The Mississippi reached its highest level on record at New Madrid, Missouri on May 6, 2011, when the river crested at 48.35'. Flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that year cost an estimated $5 billion. The next year, after the great drought of 2012, the river had fallen by over 53' to an all time record low of -5.32' on August 30, 2012. Damage from the great drought is conservatively estimated at $35 billion. Next Tuesday, the river is expected to be at flood stage again in New Madrid, 40' higher than the August 2012 record low. Now, that is some serious weather whiplash. I'm often asked about the seemingly contradictory predictions from climate models that the world will see both worse floods and worse droughts due to global warming. Well, we have seen a classic example in the Midwest U.S. over the past two years of just how this kind of weather whiplash is possible. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. We saw an example of this on Thursday morning, when an upper air balloon sounding over Lincoln, Illinois revealed near-record amounts of moisture for this time of year. The precipitable water--how much rain could fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above the ground into rain--was 1.62", just barely short of the Illinois April record for precipitable water of 1.64" set on April 20, 2000 (upper air records go back to 1948.) Thursday's powerful low pressure system was able to lift that copious moisture, cool it, and condense it into record rains. So how can you have worse droughts with more moisture in the air? Well, you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.

The new normal in the coming decades is going to be more and more extreme flood-drought-flood cycles like we are seeing now in the Midwest, and this sort of weather whiplash is going to be an increasingly severe pain in the neck for society. We'd better prepare for it, by building a more flood-resistant infrastructure and developing more drought-resistant grains, for example. And if we continue to allow heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue to build up in the atmosphere at the current near-record pace, no amount of adaptation can prevent increasingly more violent cases of weather whiplash from being a serious threat to the global economy and the well-being of billions of people.


Video 1. One person was hospitalized after a sinkhole swallowed three cars in the South Deering neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago on Thursday, April 18, 2013. Witnesses said the hole opened up around 5 a.m. at 9600 South Houston Avenue, quickly growing from about 20 feet to about 40 feet. First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said. A fourth vehicle was towed from the edge as it was about to fall inside. The sinkhole was due to heavy flooding that broke a water main built in 1915.

Related Science
A 2010 study by Duke University scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the Bermuda High that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the Southeast United States. Thus, the Southeast U.S. may see greater than its share of "Weather Whiplash"--extreme droughts followed by extreme floods--in coming decades. Joe Romm at climateporgress.org has a post discussing the paper, with links to examples of how the Southeast U.S. has seen both extreme droughts and extreme floods since 2005.


Jeff Masters

Underpass flooding (aerojad)
Belmont St. at the Metra train station.
Underpass flooding

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Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8382
Quoting stormchaser19:


Woww!!!!! How many members has the EUROPEAN MODEL!!Hoho


Really I don't know the total ensemble members but for sure more than 20.Maybe Levi knows the exact number.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


They dont name things that are already named......its so obvious your joke is not funny :D
No it wasn't meant to be funny..You'll be surprised how far people will go for ratings..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18856
1184. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder if TMC has created their own hurricane naming list.Opps I think I just gave them an idea..


They dont name things that are already named......its so obvious your joke is not funny :D
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I wonder how rich the fat cash cows head of NBC universal are doing?.They seem to own half the networks on T.V and half of the sites on the web.Must be the life living with all that money..

No Aussie..the market channel (TWC).Since they seem to be in it for the money now instead of the weather..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18856
Quoting Tazmanian:
we have are 26th winter name storm of the season by TWC we now have Winter Storm Zeus we made it too the Z storm

And they said they wouldn't name to many. And they missed one before Athena so we could of been on the 1st name of the extras list.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15997
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder if TMC has created their own hurricane naming list.Opps I think I just gave them an idea..


The Movie Channel???

Are all the channels over there now joined the bandwagon and starting to name storms?? Are they going to name a hurricane Alf and Barny and Chity-chity-bang-bang, Ernie, John Wayne?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15997
1179. 47n91w
Average April snowfall at my location in far northern Wisconsin is 4.1". I've had 32.6" so far this month (101.6" winter total) with 6" still on the ground from the last storm. And now more is coming tonight. When will it end!?!? Some thundersnow is expected too, haven't experienced that since Christmas 2009.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder if TMC has created their own hurricane naming list.Opps I think I just gave them an idea..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18856
we have are 26th winter name storm of the season by TWC we now have Winter Storm Zeus we made it too the Z storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115603
The new one from NWS
Today A slight chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Quoting AussieStorm:


They don't have clue what the weather will do... possible and chance.... hmmmm also possibly or a chance of the sun shining or a meteor could fall from the sky.
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Just like the IR said......
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The April Eurosip update shows a wide range.



Woww!!!!! How many members has the EUROPEAN MODEL!!Hoho
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
For WPB from NWS!!
Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%.


They don't have clue what the weather will do... possible and chance.... hmmmm also possibly or a chance of the sun shining or a meteor could fall from the sky.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15997
1172. etxwx
Happy Earth Day all. Looks like a beautiful spring day here in East Texas with a high of 79F and sunny.

In honor of Earth Day:
Earth Day 2013: 13 years of Google's Earth Day doodles

Their graphic artists have come a long way. Enjoy!
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1171. kwgirl
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.This city life can be quite tiersome not to mention all that commuting and raising 6 little ones.When I retire I'm thinking about moving to the coast or a quite country side home where life can be less hetic than it all ready is.Or perhaps move to the keys?.I heard the people down there are liad back :) (from commercials on T.V.)
If you can say manana to anything that needs doing and mean it, then you are half way there. People think we move slowly down here. Mainly because it is hot and humid and to move faster just works up a sweat:)
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Quoting kwgirl:
Life is all of what you make of it. Maybe you need to be more "laid back" in your expectations and reactions in order to get a more laid back lifestyle. It must be difficult living in a "high" pressure area without responding in kind. Meditation would help you realize your true self.
Yes.This city life can be quite tiersome not to mention all that commuting and raising 6 little ones.When I retire I'm thinking about moving to the coast or a quite country side home where life can be less hetic than it all ready is.Or perhaps move to the keys?.I heard the people down there are liad back :) (from commercials on T.V.)
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18856
1169. kwgirl
Quoting washingtonian115:
2013 will forever be remember for a year without a spring for much of the people in the north..Why wasn't it cold when it was suppose to be?.And why weren't we in this wet pattern when the cold air was around?.And why am I asking questions I already know the answer to?.Everything is so confusing why can't life be more well for the better term laid back?.
Life is all of what you make of it. Maybe you need to be more "laid back" in your expectations and reactions in order to get a more laid back lifestyle. It must be difficult living in a "high" pressure area without responding in kind. Meditation would help you realize your true self.
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spring weather coming soon.
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here we go!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2013 will forever be remember for a year without a spring for much of the people in the north..Why wasn't it cold when it was suppose to be?.And why weren't we in this wet pattern when the cold air was around?.And why am I asking questions I already know the answer to?.Everything is so confusing why can't life be more well for the better term laid back?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18856
6Z 252HR snow in the NE
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Is 1.6" alot of precipitable moisture? We get that much rain on an average afternoon in Florida.

Precipitable water does not necessarily equate to how much rain you would receive if a thunderstorm formed over your area. One must also take into account moisture advection - winds move moisture from other areas into areas where storms are occurring. There are many times when some higher-end flash flood events will produce 5-10" of rainfall from very slow moving thunderstorms, yet precipitable water values rarely get above 3in.

The "rarity" of a particular value changes based upon the season. Values exceeding 2 standard deviations or the 99th percentile have been correlated to many heavy rainfall events.

Precipitable water climatology:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw
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For WPB from NWS!!
Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
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Sorry to hear about your windows Kiwigirl.I hope your insurance does cover windows.They can be quite pricey to replace.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18856


Not enough light for visable. More marine influence. 57.1F....
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1160. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah all except humor..you can't even tell a joke without someone minusing your comment because it is off topic..


Yeah I know what ya mean ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7047
1159. VR46L
Quoting kwgirl:
No, some hooligan with a rock and a pipe.


Oh God ! I am so sorry there are some people who have nothing better to do than that .. Probably brats who have no idea how to have a good time and parents couldn't be bothered to bring them up right !!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7047
The April Eurosip update shows a wide range.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah all except humor..you can't even tell a joke without someone minusing your comment because it is off topic..
I think that is a user base problem more so than a blog feature problem.

Edit: Been like that sense I joined if I remember correctly. Had a lot of drama going on back then.
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1156. kwgirl
Quoting VR46L:


Gosh Did a storm do that down at the keys on Saturday ?
No, some hooligan with a rock and a pipe.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It has been a while now sense TWC/NBC bought Wunderground. Many people were making a huge stink over it when it happened and I think it is safe to say it was totally unwarranted. In fact sense the takeover the site has improved IMO. Blogging community has improved dramatically sense the introduction of the Real Time updating of blogs and comments. So far I have seen nothing but positives come out. Not sure who exactly is responsible for the upgrades but whoever it is they are doing a great job.
Yeah all except humor..you can't even tell a joke without someone minusing your comment because it is off topic..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18856
Miami NWS Disco

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SHORT TERM PATTERN IN DEPICTING A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT EFFECTS THIS WILL HAVE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY PARTICULARLY FOR TODAY. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF DID NOT
INITIALIZE WELL AT ALL AND IGNORES MUCH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
THE HRRR DEPICTS THE AREA SHIFTING EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THIS
MORNING AND THIS SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. THE REAL DILEMMA IN TODAY`S FORECAST IS
JUST HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR CONSIDERING THE EXTENSIVE
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES BUT THE FACT THAT
WE ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -11C WILL SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION, THE PWAT FROM THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING IS AT 1.87 INCHES WHICH
IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM FOR LATE APRIL WHICH SHOWS THE CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. THEREFORE, ANY SUNSHINE THAT CAN
OCCUR TODAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH SOME CHANCE FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING.
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1153. VR46L
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. From your mouth to God's ear VR46L. Sometime Saturday night two of my car windows were busted, so I currently have a garbage bag taped to the opening. I just hope my insurance company was correct and we have a mobile glass repair service here in the keys.


Gosh Did a storm do that down at the keys on Saturday ?
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7047
It has been a while now sense TWC/NBC bought Wunderground. Many people were making a huge stink over it when it happened and I think it is safe to say it was totally unwarranted. In fact sense the takeover the site has improved IMO. Blogging community has improved dramatically sense the introduction of the Real Time updating of blogs and comments. So far I have seen nothing but positives come out. Not sure who exactly is responsible for the upgrades but whoever it is they are doing a great job.
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SPC

...SRN TWO-THIRDS OF FL THIS AFTN...
WEAK SW-NE FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED OVER CNTRL FL WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SURGE OF LOW-LVL NELY FLOW TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE SLOWLY EVOLVES
OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. WHILE THIS WILL TEND TO USHER IN SOMEWHAT
DRIER LOW-LVL AIR...WITH AFTN HEATING CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA LIKELY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF COOL...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH WEAK LWR TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW PROMOTING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...SETUP MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT
IN SCTD-NUMEROUS DIURNAL TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
SFC WINDS.
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1150. kwgirl
Quoting VR46L:
It would appear that there is not too much rain to come..

Good morning all. From your mouth to God's ear VR46L. Sometime Saturday night two of my car windows were busted, so I currently have a garbage bag taped to the opening. I just hope my insurance company was correct and we have a mobile glass repair service here in the keys.
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Quoting VR46L:
It would appear that there is not too much rain to come..



Cold mid level temperatures and PWAT's of 1.8 to 1.9 means that the atmosphere is very unstable once the sune can break through these low clouds in place right now.

545 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ONE OR
TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...CONTAINING STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
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Good Morning. Drove the length of Florida this weekend from Tally, to Orlando, to Ft. Lauderdale, to US 27 past Lake Okeechobee, etc. Raining most of the trip but nice and green everywhere. Worst storm I saw was in Ft. Lauderdale on Saturday afternoon. Most beautiful sights we saw was bird-wise driving through the Everglades on US 27 yesterday from South Florida up to Clermont; a flock of about 5 Flamingos cruising over US 27 around Palm Beach; a nice looking Bald Eagle guarding the nest on top of an electric pole near Sebring; and a momma Great Heron crossing the street with three little ones following her somewhere around Lake County. Did not have a chance to look at any radars/weather info during the trip but I see now that it was a State wide rain event as it all exits the East Coast.

Everyone have a great day; weather looks pretty good across the US at the moment but the Spring flooding will be a disaster.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9835
1147. VR46L
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
yeah. I have no idea why I still have 60% pops in my area north of Tampa... Maybe there's enough low level moisture and lift to get storms going


Maybe the afternoon heating might trigger some showers .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7047
Quoting VR46L:
It would appear that there is not too much rain to come..

yeah. I have no idea why I still have 60% pops in my area north of Tampa... Maybe there's enough low level moisture and lift to get storms going
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1145. VR46L
It would appear that there is not too much rain to come..

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7047
1144. pcola57
Good Morning and Happy Earth Day to Us and our Planet..
Gonna get outside today and do something positive..
Our planet needs US.. :)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6925
1143. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:



Cheers thanks!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7047

Quoting VR46L:


I don't suppose there is a legend for that graphic or if its temps or anomalies ...
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1141. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


I don't suppose there is a legend for that graphic 1139 or if its temps or anomalies ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7047
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/22/13 1128Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 1115Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA...S NORTH DAKOTA...WYOMING...
.
ATTN WFOS...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...RIW...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
.
EVENT...SNOW...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LAST OF THE PV ANOMALIES WAS PUSHING
ACROSS NE OREGON/
W CENTRAL IDAHO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING SE ACROSS NE IDAHO AND
NW MONTANA. AHEAD IN N WYOMING, CLOUD TOPS WARMING OF AREA EXTENSE OF
ENHANCED WARMER CLOUDS HAD EXPANDED INDICATING MOSTLY A DECREASE IN
SNOW RATES MOST EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT MAYBE THE NORTHEAST...BUT LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW HANGING BACK ACROSS NW WY AND SOUTHERN MONTANA TO INTERIOR
SW MONTANA. EXPECT WORST OF SNOWS (MODERATE TO HVY) TO BE OVER AND JUST
LIGHT LINGERING IN WEAK FORCING AND MODERATE MOISTURE. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA..ENHANCED BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD SIGNATURE FROM
INTERIOR WESTERN SD EAST THROUGH CENTRAL SD AND EXTENDING LIGHT PRECIP
TO THE EAST AND NE AS FAR EAST AS INTERIOR
EASTERN SD INTO S CENTRAL ND. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM MAX PWAT
OVER S AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA AND SD AND THEN TURNING ABRUPTLY
WEST ACROSS C SD. COMBO OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHORT WAVE
CUTTING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD..HELPING INCREASE SNOW JUST EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS AND ON INTO CENTRAL SD. BEHIND NW SD SHORT WAVE...PV
ANOMALIES WITH MUCH LESS ENHANCED CLOUDS RESULTING IN LIGHTER SNOW MOST
AREAS OF N WYOMING, EXCEPT HIGHER SPOTS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1115-1500Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...SHORT WAVE AND TROUGH NW MONTANA THROUGH NE OREGON WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE AND EAST...ENOUGH FORCING AND LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE
WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP GOING...POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF MODERATE SNOW HIGH
SPOTS WEST AND NORTHERN WYOMING. BETTER ACTION OUT CENTERED ON SD AND
IN PARTICULAR CENTRAL SD AS DEEP MODERATE MOISTURE (PWAT CLOSE TO 0.8"
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS) GETS ADVECTED INTO THE STATE AND MEETS UP WITH
COOLING SURFACE AND LEAD SHORT WAVE PRODUCING BAROCLINIC LEAF OUT AHEAD
ACROSS AREA CENTERED IN CENTRAL SD FOR HIGHEST SNOW RATES THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE EXPANDING
SOUTH ACROSS N CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR LOCAL MODERATE TO HVY SNOW TO PUSH
EAST FROM KCDR AREA AS COOLING SURFACE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND
SURFACE LOW PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS .php
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LAT...LON 4615 9954 4464 9991 4168 10669 4426 10638
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NNNN

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15997
Quoting Jedkins01:


Oh yes what was I thinking!










Hey guys how did you get a pic of me wearing my tin foil hat?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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