U.S. has a cool and very dry March; severe weather outbreak likely today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT on April 17, 2013

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It was another relatively quiet month for weather extremes in the U.S. during March 2013, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The month ranked as the 43rd coolest March in the 119-year record for the contiguous U.S., and was the coolest March since 2002. This is in stark contrast to what happened in 2012, when the U.S. had its warmest March on record. Eleven states, mostly in the Southeast, experienced a top-ten coolest March on record in 2013. Remarkably, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina had March 2013 temperatures that were cooler than in January 2013. California, Nevada, and Arizona had a top-ten warmest March. The pattern of warmth in the west and cool conditions in the east was due to the fact that the jet stream was stuck in a large loop that allowed cold air to spill out of Canada into the Southeast U.S., and warm air to flow northward over the southwestern states. We can describe the jet stream behavior using the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which is a measure of pressure patterns across the Arctic. During March 2013, the monthly-averaged AO index reached its most negative March value since records began in 1950.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, the year 2013 has been below average for extremes. The CEI during January - March 2013 was 15%, and on average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for March 2013. Eleven states, mostly in the Southeast, had a top-ten coldest March, and California, Nevada, and Arizona had a top-ten warmest March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for March 2013. Although only two states had a top-ten driest March--Wyoming and Louisiana--just eight states were wetter than average, making March 2013 the 5th driest March on record for the U.S. as a whole. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fifth driest March on record in the U.S.
Although only two states had a top-ten driest March in 2013--Wyoming and Louisiana--just eight states were wetter than average, making March 2013 the 5th driest March on record for the U.S. as a whole. Thanks to three major winter storms that crossed the Great Plains during the first half of April, there should be a notable improvement in drought conditions over much of the core U.S. drought region when Thursday's Drought Monitor report is issued, though. The most recent report from April 9 showed a big reduction of the area in the worst drought category, "Exceptional", from 5% to 3%, during the first week of April. About 51% of the U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the March snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was the 10th largest March snow cover extent in the 47-year period of record. However, snowpack, an important water resource in the West, was below-normal in the Sierra Nevada Mountains as well as the Central and Southern Rockies.


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, April 17, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma, and portions of surrounding states. The main threat appears to be large hail, but there may also be a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page, and wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a detailed post on today's severe weather threat.

Jeff Masters

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741. 1900hurricane
3:46 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



This is deja vu...I remember dreaming about there being a severe wx event and coming on wunderground and talking about it and you mentioned this line coming......dont remember what happened after that, it probably wasnt good :)

My wx dreams usually dont end so safely

Anyway, stay safe.

Lucky, my dreams of that nature usually end up being horribly wrong (probably because I typically end up dreaming something catastrophic). The only time they seem to end up right is when they involve my ex-girlfriend. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
740. yqt1001
3:33 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Less important than the tornadoes..but

City of Thunder Bay
5:18 AM EDT Thursday 18 April 2013
Snowfall warning for
City of Thunder Bay issued

15-20cm of snow expected. Winter will never end!

So much for the 10C we usually get this time of year. :/
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
739. StormTrackerScott
3:30 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Lots of rain on tap for FL.

84hr precip accum (NAM)
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
738. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:29 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
737. StormTrackerScott
3:27 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
They issued a PDS for this? LOL!!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
736. StormTrackerScott
3:25 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


the biggest deal today are the damaging winds... very strong gusts are the main threat, lowered the changes for hail significantly and for tornadoes today...

Already 9 wind reports


It just seems the SPC folks were using the shock and awe effect earlier when it appeared the tornado threat was going to be very low.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
735. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:23 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Not looking good for tornadoes today as this squall line is charging east fast. Again SPC folks might have really jumped the gun here. I mean a PDS with marginally strong storms. Makes no sense.





the biggest deal today are the damaging winds... very strong gusts are the main threat, lowered the changes for hail significantly and for tornadoes today...

Already 9 wind reports
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
734. StormTrackerScott
3:23 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting MTWX:
Discrete cells trying to fire ahead of the line in central AR. Link


That maybe a tornado area extending into Mississippi and Tennessee.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
733. StormTrackerScott
3:21 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Not looking good for tornadoes today as this squall line is charging east fast. Again SPC folks might have really jumped the gun here. I mean a PDS with marginally strong storms. Makes no sense.



Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
732. GeorgiaStormz
3:15 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting Slamguitar:


Hopefully it ended in lollipops and unicorns and not death. :D


Definitely not death...I never dream about that....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
731. Tazmanian
3:12 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Got to go back to class. Tornado warning in southern Missouri, btw.



this check the NWS pags and there is no tornado warning out there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
730. Slamguitar
3:12 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



This is deja vu...I remember dreaming about there being a severe wx event and coming on wunderground and talking about it and you mentioned this line coming......dont remember what happened after that, it probably wasnt good :)

My wx dreams usually dont end so safely

Anyway, stay safe.


Hopefully it ended in lollipops and unicorns and not death. :D
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
729. 1900hurricane
3:11 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Now that I look at it a little more closely, this is probably closer to the surface where the upglide is taking place.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
728. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:11 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting MrstormX:


Oh, apologies...I thought you were in Indiana haha.


yep..he's a Carolinian from the northerners
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
727. Bluestorm5
3:10 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting MrstormX:


Oh, apologies...I thought you were in Indiana haha.
Haha, it's all good :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897
726. Bluestorm5
3:10 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Got to go back to class. Tornado warning in southern Missouri, btw.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897
725. MrstormX
3:09 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm not in Indiana. I'm in North Carolina. I'm just saying I'm surprised we got PDS watch, although it is moderate risk day.


Oh, apologies...I thought you were in Indiana haha.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
724. Bluestorm5
3:09 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting MrstormX:


Where in Indiana are you located?
I'm not in Indiana. I'm in North Carolina. I'm just saying I'm surprised we got PDS watch, although it is moderate risk day.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897
723. Thrawst
3:08 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Watch that storm near Quitman, Arkansas.
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1793
722. GeorgiaStormz
3:05 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting Slamguitar:
Another line that will eventually reach me:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1048 AM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF SOUTH HAVEN TO BENTON
HARBOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TOQUIN AND SOUTH HAVEN AROUND 1105 AM EDT.
PIER COVE AND BANGOR AROUND 1110 AM EDT.
FENNVILLE AND DECATUR AROUND 1115 AM EDT.
NEW RICHMOND AND BERLAMONT AROUND 1120 AM EDT.
DUNNINGVILLE AND ARMSTRONG CORNERS AROUND 1125 AM EDT.
MONTEREY AND DIAMOND SPRINGS AROUND 1130 AM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE VAN BUREN STATE PARK...
PALISADES PARK...COVERT...KEELER...HARTFORD...HAMILTON TWP...
MCDONALD...LACOTA...LAWRENCE AND KIBBIE.

...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH



This is deja vu...I remember dreaming about there being a severe wx event and coming on wunderground and talking about it and you mentioned this line coming......dont remember what happened after that, it probably wasnt good :)

My wx dreams usually dont end so safely

Anyway, stay safe.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
721. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:04 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
For those living in the East coast, expect gusty winds, hail and maybe (low chance) of tornadoes...


those weather conditions described above are more likely to happen within this area



more updates about it tomorrow
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
720. MrstormX
3:04 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm pretty surprised we got PDS tornado watch in Indiana. Wasn't expecting one, despite the day being moderate risk. I think SPC jumped the gun on this one.


Where in Indiana are you located?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
719. MTWX
3:03 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Discrete cells trying to fire ahead of the line in central AR. Link
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
718. Slamguitar
2:59 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Another line that will eventually reach me:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1048 AM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF SOUTH HAVEN TO BENTON
HARBOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TOQUIN AND SOUTH HAVEN AROUND 1105 AM EDT.
PIER COVE AND BANGOR AROUND 1110 AM EDT.
FENNVILLE AND DECATUR AROUND 1115 AM EDT.
NEW RICHMOND AND BERLAMONT AROUND 1120 AM EDT.
DUNNINGVILLE AND ARMSTRONG CORNERS AROUND 1125 AM EDT.
MONTEREY AND DIAMOND SPRINGS AROUND 1130 AM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE VAN BUREN STATE PARK...
PALISADES PARK...COVERT...KEELER...HARTFORD...HAMILTON TWP...
MCDONALD...LACOTA...LAWRENCE AND KIBBIE.

...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
717. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:57 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Current tornado watches from SPC


Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
716. Bluestorm5
2:57 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
I'm pretty surprised we got PDS tornado watch in Indiana. Wasn't expecting one, despite the day being moderate risk. I think SPC jumped the gun on this one.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897
715. 1900hurricane
2:51 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Post-frontal isentropic lift once again rules the day here in Texas.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
714. LargoFl
2:51 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
713. washingtonian115
2:48 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting MTWX:


Yeah. As the cold front finally swings through overnight tonight, it looks like it will cut off the low level moisture currently coming in off of the gulf. You guys will get some storms, but nothing near the extent of today.
After last year we don't need any of those.But we do need the rain.Don't want to slip back into a drought.Those flowers/plants last year looked so miserable.They look much happier and brighter.Now their's a mental image for ya.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
712. FunnelVortex
2:48 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Im ready for hurricane season. It looks like the tropics are locked and loaded, now all we need is the safety (jet stream) turned off and the trigger (convection) pulled.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
711. LargoFl
2:48 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
not a nice day saturday,but hopefully some good rains...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
710. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:48 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
The atmosphere ahead of the squall line remains capped for the time being. When it breaks, there's a good chance of isolated supercells which will be capable of producing marginally severe hail, extremely damaging winds, and a few significant/long-lived tornadoes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31424
709. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:46 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
The main threat from these storms today is damaging winds, less hail and tornadoes as SPC says

we already have 7 wind reports
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
708. LargoFl
2:46 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
60+ mph winds, bet there is going to be alot of roof damage etc thruout the midwest today regardless of tornado's etc..not a good day at all, I just hope folks in the warned area's are taking heed of this bad weather and taking the needed precautions huh...so many just go about their business and dont
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
707. MTWX
2:45 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks.Looks like we won't get it as bad here as the plains.


Yeah. As the cold front finally swings through overnight tonight, it looks like it will cut off the low level moisture currently coming in off of the gulf. You guys will get some storms, but nothing near the extent of today.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
706. luvtogolf
2:43 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Stephen Hawking gave a talk this week saying that the Universe was created without God. I guess I've been duped about God and religion. Gotta believe what science says.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 934
705. washingtonian115
2:42 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting MTWX:


Heere is tomorrows Wash...

Link
Thanks.Looks like we won't get it as bad here as the plains.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
704. LargoFl
2:41 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...WW 123...WW 124...

DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW
FORMATIONS IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS WW AREA WITH
EMBEDDED ELEMENTS MOVING MORE RAPIDLY NEWD...ROUGHLY 40 KT. GIVEN
LACK OF CINH EVIDENT IN 12Z LZK RAOB...DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF INITIAL/PRIMARY CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. WARM SECTOR IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE STEADILY
THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...EDWARDS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
703. MTWX
2:41 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.More of those please.I wouldn't mind a 2010 repeat which had a handful of those.Igor,Danielle,Earl,Julia.But the conditions compared to last year in the deep tropics look more primed.

Post 698 does that go out to tomorrow?.


Heere is tomorrows Wash...

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
702. 1900hurricane
2:41 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.More of those please.I wouldn't mind a 2010 repeat which had a handful of those.Igor,Danielle,Earl,Julia.But the conditions compared to last year in the deep tropics look more primed.

Post 698 does that go out to tomorrow?.

Nope, that's for now/today.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
701. 1900hurricane
2:38 PM GMT on April 18, 2013


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0015
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
851 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 181250Z - 181750Z

SUMMARY...WARM FRONT AND GREATER INSTABILITY NOSING INTO A REGION
ALREADY INUNDATED BY OVERNIGHT RAINS. ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINS
WILL COMPOUND ONGOING AREAL FLOODING AND MAY RESULT IN LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...INDICATED BY THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ON ASSOCIATED GRAPHIC...HAD YIELDED TRAINING
STORMS OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING. MONITORING LOCAL STORM REPORTS AND
RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS...THERE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF AREAL FLOODING/INUNDATION OWING TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY LOW.

THE STAGE IS SET FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TO COMPOUND THE SITUATION.
TRAINING ECHOES WITH MDT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MID LEVEL
FRONT NEAR/NORTH OF KALAMAZOO TO LANSING TO FLINT...WITH THESE
ECHOES INTERCEPTING THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
MEANWHILE...WITH SFC WARM FRONT NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN...THE NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGH 15 UTC IN
ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. INCREASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.75 INCHES...OR 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY... ARGUES FOR A BRIEF BURST
OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SQUALL LINE...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL 1-2 INCHES ATOP SATURATED GROUND. EVENT SHOULD PROPAGATE
EASTWARD BY MIDDAY.

BURKE


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON 41728704 41848556 42348443 42838380 43248367 43628376
43778399 43838477 43578570 42838730 42428794 41798774
41728704
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
700. Slamguitar
2:38 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
This one is going to be in my area in ~1hr.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OTTAWA...
SOUTHERN MUSKEGON AND NORTHERN ALLEGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

AT 1024 AM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SNUG HARBOR TO CRISP TO
SAUGATUCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MOORLAND AND DUNNINGVILLE AROUND 1035 AM EDT.
DIAMOND SPRINGS AND BEAVERDAM AROUND 1040 AM EDT.
MONTEREY AND TALLMADGE AROUND 1045 AM EDT.
FOREST GROVE AND HUDSONVILLE AROUND 1050 AM EDT.
WAYLAND AROUND 1055 AM EDT.
GREEN LAKE AND CORNING AROUND 1100 AM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE EASTMANVILLE...ALLENDALE...
ZEELAND...RAVENNA...HAMILTON...CHESTER TWP...LAMONT...CONKLIN...
BAILEY AND DRENTHE.

...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
699. washingtonian115
2:37 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting CybrTeddy:


To be honest, I just want to see a long-tracked Cape Verde major hurricane. Haven't seen one since Hurricane Katia.
Yes!.More of those please.I wouldn't mind a 2010 repeat which had a handful of those.Igor,Danielle,Earl,Julia.But the conditions compared to last year in the deep tropics look more primed.

Post 698 does that go out to tomorrow?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
698. 1900hurricane
2:35 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
It is in both the hatched tornado area and the hatched wind area, so it certainly has that going for it.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
697. Thrawst
2:35 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
My guy feeling tells me the probabilities, at least for tornado potential (F2+) for this tornado watch is probably too conservative. It is only 30% chance of a significant tornado and the watch goes for 7.5 hours.

Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1793
696. FlyingScotsman
2:34 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Good golly, was not expecting a PDS today! That wording is very strong:
"SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE"


Even if discrete supercells don't materialize and the tornado threat is reduced, it's looking likely that we could see a huge derecho event.
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 215
695. CybrTeddy
2:33 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
What I need is a good hurricane to track.No Ernesto's/Isaac's/Nadine's please...I should add ugly Leslie to the list as well as one of the most annoying storms of 2012..Micheal and Chris were just perfect and beautiful..So was Kirk.


To be honest, I just want to see a long-tracked Cape Verde major hurricane. Haven't seen one since Hurricane Katia.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
694. 1900hurricane
2:32 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
These are some of the lowest probabilities I've ever seen for a PDS watch. Obviously the SPC must think there is some real destructive potential in there though or else they wouldn't have issued it.

WWUS40 KWNS 181336
WWP3

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

WT 0123 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24050
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU3.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
693. MTWX
2:30 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting Slamguitar:
Just a reminder of our tornado outlook as of a few hours ago:



Nothing like being in the 10% hatched when our weather isn't supposed to arrive until the midnight to 4 am slot....
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
692. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:27 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
big tornado watch 125 just issued
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
691. Ameister12
2:23 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
It could get very dangerous out there if discrete cells form ahead of the line. Conditions today are favorable for a couple strong and possibly long tracked tornadoes. Stay safe out there, everybody!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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