U.S. has a cool and very dry March; severe weather outbreak likely today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT on April 17, 2013

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It was another relatively quiet month for weather extremes in the U.S. during March 2013, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The month ranked as the 43rd coolest March in the 119-year record for the contiguous U.S., and was the coolest March since 2002. This is in stark contrast to what happened in 2012, when the U.S. had its warmest March on record. Eleven states, mostly in the Southeast, experienced a top-ten coolest March on record in 2013. Remarkably, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina had March 2013 temperatures that were cooler than in January 2013. California, Nevada, and Arizona had a top-ten warmest March. The pattern of warmth in the west and cool conditions in the east was due to the fact that the jet stream was stuck in a large loop that allowed cold air to spill out of Canada into the Southeast U.S., and warm air to flow northward over the southwestern states. We can describe the jet stream behavior using the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which is a measure of pressure patterns across the Arctic. During March 2013, the monthly-averaged AO index reached its most negative March value since records began in 1950.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, the year 2013 has been below average for extremes. The CEI during January - March 2013 was 15%, and on average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for March 2013. Eleven states, mostly in the Southeast, had a top-ten coldest March, and California, Nevada, and Arizona had a top-ten warmest March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for March 2013. Although only two states had a top-ten driest March--Wyoming and Louisiana--just eight states were wetter than average, making March 2013 the 5th driest March on record for the U.S. as a whole. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fifth driest March on record in the U.S.
Although only two states had a top-ten driest March in 2013--Wyoming and Louisiana--just eight states were wetter than average, making March 2013 the 5th driest March on record for the U.S. as a whole. Thanks to three major winter storms that crossed the Great Plains during the first half of April, there should be a notable improvement in drought conditions over much of the core U.S. drought region when Thursday's Drought Monitor report is issued, though. The most recent report from April 9 showed a big reduction of the area in the worst drought category, "Exceptional", from 5% to 3%, during the first week of April. About 51% of the U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the March snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was the 10th largest March snow cover extent in the 47-year period of record. However, snowpack, an important water resource in the West, was below-normal in the Sierra Nevada Mountains as well as the Central and Southern Rockies.


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, April 17, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma, and portions of surrounding states. The main threat appears to be large hail, but there may also be a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page, and wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a detailed post on today's severe weather threat.

Jeff Masters

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

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Quoting aspectre:
106 weathermanwannabe: For the Florida Panhandle Bloggers........Is it raining in your parts?

dDepens. (Did anyone else initially misread it as pants?)


depends!!!! LOL!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
190. MTWX
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


sorry..I fixed the whole thing...


Just messing with ya Max... LOL! You have gotten quite good at this over the years, so I got to pick at you when you mess up... ;)
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Boston Marathon bombing arrest: Suspect taken into custody, CNN says

Link


CNN has now said, "Oops"

So any thoughts on how much fun an early morning flight from Chicago to Ft. Lauderdale is gonna be tomorrow? Or will the hefty stuff not start firing til the afternoon?
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Quoting MTWX:


It's the subtle differences in wording too, not just the percentages..

WW114 SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

WW116 SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE


the prime area is around Oklahoma
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting yonzabam:


I'll pass. Anything with 'warmist' in the title is obviously going to be anti-science denier propagandist drivel, and probably paid for by the oil industry.


"American Thinker" is an oxymoron and their opinions reflect that fact.
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186. MTWX
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


it's still dangerous nonetheless...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM 1110 AM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO
2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


It's the subtle differences in wording too, not just the percentages..

WW114 SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

WW116 SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
106 weathermanwannabe: For the Florida Panhandle Bloggers........Is it raining in your parts?

Depends. (Did anyone else initially misread it as pants?)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting MTWX:


*Watches... ;)


sorry..I fixed the whole thing...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
182. MTWX
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


it's still dangerous nonetheless...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

both tornado warnings 116 and 114 include this


*Watches... ;)
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Quoting luvtogolf:
Interesting read on GW from The American Thinker.

www.americanthinker.com/2013/04/the_warmist_crisi s.html


I'll pass. Anything with 'warmist' in the title is obviously going to be anti-science denier propagandist drivel, and probably paid for by the oil industry.
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Quoting MTWX:


Interesting though is the fact that they have the tornado probabilities set lower than the earlier watch in Missouri....


it's still dangerous nonetheless...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM 1110 AM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO
2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting LargoFl:
KILL THIS SOB.............BOSTON (AP) --
CNN is reporting that sources tell them that an arrest has been made in the Boston Marathon bombings that killed three people and wounded more than 170 others.


kill em!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
178. MTWX
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR OKLAHOMA CITY



Interesting though is the fact that they have the tornado probabilities set lower than the earlier watch in Missouri....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The only tropical cyclone to ever form east of the dateline during the month of April was Tropical Storm Carmen in 1950 during April 5th - April 8th. She was also located at 178W....not even in the eastern Pacific.

Link
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
just in


Looks like initiation.
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just in
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Early season E-Pacific storms often do form quite far south.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC has an eastern Pacific tropical storm, again. 3rd run in a row:

And what do you think about this TC?
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not too high for a 15% tornado

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC has an eastern Pacific tropical storm, again. 3rd run in a row:



It seems pretty far south to me...could it be a long Pacific tracker?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
12z CMC has an eastern Pacific tropical storm, again. 3rd run in a row:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Boston Marathon bombing arrest: Suspect taken into custody, CNN says

Link
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Link

Tulsa live stream. (Might be good for later.)
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TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR OKLAHOMA CITY



Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Interesting read on GW from The American Thinker.

www.americanthinker.com/2013/04/the_warmist_crisi s.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE BIG ONE...ALMOST THERE


Soon to have tornado watches for Oklahoma City


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO
SWRN...CENTRAL...NERN OK...AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171809Z - 171945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL TO NERN OK AND SERN
KS.

WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TORNADO WATCH THREAT AREA...ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS W THROUGH NW OK AND SPREAD
INTO SRN KS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Probably have to adjust future watch area north-east of OKC. What do ya'll think?
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warm front is almost fully through MDT risk area

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Whoa there...easy..
Due process, dont let emotions get in the way.
Next thing you know it isnt even the right guy.
Indeed. Two words: Richard Jewell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah your right of course but there is something wrong with someone doing this Horrible stuff, then just getting a prison term..so many now are really suffering badly..the person who did this kind of thing should..suffer badly also..imagine those who lost legs, lost arms or eye sight..nah..i cannot imagine losing my legs etc because of some jerk..send him to that base in cuba and no one hears from him again, cant hear him scream.


i know how you feel but it would not be fun to live in a society in which after being suspected in a crime you can be arrested and killed just like that.

Let the process move along, and if we've got the right guy, he will be punished.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Now including the tornado watch for Oklahoma

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting aspectre:
42 Neapolitan: I spent much of the past week doing work in the area between Lawton, Oklahoma, and Wichita Falls

Did you feel any of the earthquakes? Did the OK tv&radio stations make a big deal of them?
No, I felt no temblors (and having been born and raised in Southern California, I know what they feel like). Radio- and TV-wise, I didn't have much time to watch/listen to either...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41641
Some serious wording by the SPC on tomorrow's outlook. Seems like a good possibility we may see a high risk tomorrow.
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showers developing maybe cap will break today....maybe an isolated small hailstorm

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Whoa there...easy..
Due process, dont let emotions get in the way.
Next thing you know it isnt even the right guy.
yeah your right of course but there is something wrong with someone doing this Horrible stuff, then just getting a prison term..so many now are really suffering badly..the person who did this kind of thing should..suffer badly also..imagine those who lost legs, lost arms or eye sight..nah..i cannot imagine losing my legs etc because of some jerk..send him to that base in cuba and no one hears from him again, cant hear him scream.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41641
Quoting LargoFl:
KILL THIS SOB.............BOSTON (AP) --
CNN is reporting that sources tell them that an arrest has been made in the Boston Marathon bombings that killed three people and wounded more than 170 others.


Mass. does NOT have the death penalty. Hopefully this is tried as a federal case. (Ala McVeigh?) Not sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Just in
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting LargoFl:
KILL THIS *#@$............BOSTON (AP) --
CNN is reporting that sources tell them that an arrest has been made in the Boston Marathon bombings that killed three people and wounded more than 170 others.



Whoa there...easy..
Due process, dont let emotions get in the way.
Next thing you know it isnt even the right guy.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
KILL THIS SOB.............BOSTON (AP) --
CNN is reporting that sources tell them that an arrest has been made in the Boston Marathon bombings that killed three people and wounded more than 170 others.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41641
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Link

KFOR (Oklahoma City live feed....for later?)
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
surprised no watch yet



cloud tops



VIL





Im thinking 2pm watch..pds oklahoma.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171726Z - 171830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST AND SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
And yeah that link I put in comment 142 is relevant. It may contain the earliest depiction through special effects of a tornado on film (1910). The special effects were a lot better in 1939.
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Quoting Thrawst:
Main tornado threat should start around 4-5pm ish and run all the way through the night tonight.


yep...we need some more heat to get things started and at 4 PM-6PM things get busy
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting aspectre:
50 washingtonian115: Everyone just loves correcting/seeing the Washingtonian corrected.

Few (if any) notice or care (enough to remember) who's being corrected.
And if anyone's commentary were irreproachable beyond correction, nobody would come to the WU for weather info, or need the NWS for that matter. We'd all just wait for the PerfectOne to Speak.
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Main tornado threat should start around 4-5pm ish and run all the way through the night tonight.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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