NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

Share this Blog
44
+

The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 948 - 898

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

948. PalmBeachWeather
2:56 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now not sure if you are being sarcastic and playing mind games because I have stated two times that I was not mad at you and have moved on from the subject by stating I still have faith in the human race.

So what are you doing?
How about a rain check..We'll just stick to dinner
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5883
947. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:52 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
946. washingtonian115
2:50 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
My goodness... Sorry I brought up a sore subject Wash. Only one thing to say...Lindsay Lohan... Grow up
Now not sure if you are being sarcastic and playing mind games because I have stated two times that I was not mad at you and have moved on from the subject by stating I still have faith in the human race.

So what are you doing?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
945. Tazmanian
2:48 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
See todays CPC ENSO update at my ENSO blog



they dont have too go too your blog they can this go too this site

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
944. pcola57
2:48 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
My new Video. Enjoy, like and share.



Very nice Aussie..
Good lightening shots..
Like the music too..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6836
943. ScottLincoln
2:47 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is data courtesy of Patrick Marsh with the SPC:

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk has remained a Day 2 Moderate Risk or was upgraded to a Day 2 High Risk.
--> Means no Day 3 Moderate Risk has ever been overforecast.

That's not necessarily correct, that just means that the SPC has maintained forecast consistency for subsequent issuances. To do a fair comparison, you need to look at actual storm reports for the day forecasted.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
942. 1900hurricane
2:46 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is data courtesy of Patrick Marsh with the SPC:

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk has remained a Day 2 Moderate Risk or was upgraded to a Day 2 High Risk.
--> Means no Day 3 Moderate Risk has ever been overforecast.

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk remained a Day 1 Moderate or High Risk.

* 30% of all Day 3 Moderate Risks (10 total) were upgraded to a Day 1 High Risk.

I'd be careful with the overforecasted term, since a couple of the days were given moderate or high risks on the day of the event and ended up busting. Here is the list of Day 3 Moderate risks issued, and here are some of the busts.



June 10th, 2005



April 24th, 2007 (perhaps the worst bust of them all)



June 7th, 2007 (not a complete bust, but pretty bad considering the risk size and placement)



April 10th, 2008



April 10th, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
941. PalmBeachWeather
2:45 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
My goodness... Sorry I brought up a sore subject Wash. Only one thing to say...Lindsay Lohan... Grow up
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5883
940. washingtonian115
2:44 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Wash.... Sorry I pissed you off.I will never ever mention Paris Hilton either,
Oh no I'm not mad at you.I'm still glad their are people in the world who are not brain washed with the filth that is out here.Still gives me hope for the human race.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
939. AussieStorm
2:41 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
My new Video. Enjoy, like and share.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
938. PalmBeachWeather
2:40 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
BITING MY TONGUE
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5883
937. AussieStorm
2:39 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Serious ???

If you are being serious you are lucky!!

Sorry I don't watch trash tv or read trash magazines.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
936. Tropicsweatherpr
2:39 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
See todays CPC ENSO update at my ENSO blog
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14301
935. PalmBeachWeather
2:38 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
When I come here I come to escape the names of those people :).I hear "them" every day on the radio and the news get more money to act stupid and excus my language slu**y.I don't like it when "they"'are brought up.Especially on a weather blog."their" names are banned in my house.I don't see how the young people can look up to such trash and call it their idol.I'm not angry at you Palmbeachweather.Just don't like when "they" brought up.And no I'm not a hater.

So they are a who's who to me.
Wash.... Sorry I pissed you off.I will never ever mention Paris Hilton either,
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5883
934. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:37 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Bismarck, ND

THE RECORD FOR THE MOST SNOW ON ANY DAY OF THE YEAR IN BISMARCK WAS 15.5 INCHES ON MARCH 3...1966.
IT IS NOW...17.3 INCHES.

more much snow heading your way...this could eventually lead to major flooding
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
933. washingtonian115
2:35 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Aussie...Just no Kim Kardashian vids....
When I come here I come to escape the names of those people :).I hear "them" every day on the radio and the news get more money to act stupid and excus my language slu**y.I don't like it when "they"'are brought up.Especially on a weather blog."their" names are banned in my house.I don't see how the young people can look up to such trash and call it their idol.I'm not angry at you Palmbeachweather.Just don't like when "they" brought up.And no I'm not a hater.

So they are a who's who to me.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
932. VirginIslandsVisitor
2:35 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who????


Oh, everyone has me laughing so hard over here! Aussie must be the only one in the world (or at least this blog) who doesn't know who the Kardashians are!

Just got back from a funeral. Thanks for putting a smile on my face!

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 626
931. VR46L
2:29 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who is that?


Serious ???

If you are being serious you are lucky!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6926
930. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:29 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Nobody in my opinion


LOL....
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
929. PalmBeachWeather
2:28 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who is that?
Nobody in my opinion
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5883
928. AussieStorm
2:27 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Aussie...Just no Kim Kardashian vids....

Who????
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
927. PalmBeachWeather
2:25 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just had a storm pass through Sydney. I went for my first storm chase and caught some ok lightning video. Youtube says it'll be another 15mins till its ready. Once it's finished uploading to youtube I'll post the video.
Aussie...Just no Kim Kardashian vids....
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5883
926. AussieStorm
2:24 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's a beautiful morning, I think I'll go outside for awhile..and smile..

Just had a storm pass through Sydney. I went for my first storm chase and caught some ok lightning video. Youtube says it'll be another 15mins till its ready. Once it's finished uploading to youtube I'll post the video.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
925. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:23 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
This is data courtesy of Patrick Marsh with the SPC:

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk has remained a Day 2 Moderate Risk or was upgraded to a Day 2 High Risk.
--> Means no Day 3 Moderate Risk has ever been overforecast.

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk remained a Day 1 Moderate or High Risk.

* 30% of 10 Day 3 Moderate Risks were upgraded to a Day 1 High Risk.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32226
924. Tazmanian
2:23 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes... I saw them
some severe weather
I expected Yogi to be named soon... thanks Taz



your late we all ready have Yogi
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
923. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:21 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting Tazmanian:



check out commet 916/917


yes... I saw them
some severe weather
I expected Yogi to be named soon... thanks Taz
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
922. AussieStorm
2:20 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have winter storm Yogi we olny have one more name winter storm to go


How can it be a Winter Storm Yogi when it's no longer winter. TWC is a joke.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
921. PalmBeachWeather
2:20 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
I hate to do this.But please help this little girl in Palm Harbor that was involved in a terrible accident with a lawn mower accident. This poor little girl lost both feet and the family needs help. This is in the St. Petersburg Florida area... I'm not good at posting sites so maybe Largo and Jenkins can help me... So very sad.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5883
920. Tazmanian
2:19 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

same here...

good morning everyone



check out commet 916/917
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
919. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:18 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's a beautiful morning, I think I'll go outside for awhile..and smile..

same here...

good morning everyone
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
918. NttyGrtty
2:17 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting goosegirl1:


Maybe not "bad", but there is "incorrect". The goal of any science is to strive to get closer to the correct answer to whatever question you wish to ask, so if you want the best information from the most qualified source, ask the experts.


Feel free to ignore it then. I simply found it interesting and neither made nor make any judgement as to it's "correctness"...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 835
917. Tazmanian
2:15 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
i this noted this on the day 3 out look







DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL IL...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY...

...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z FROM
SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS THE NAM
MAY BE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTING AN EARLY FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY1-2 TIME FRAME BEFORE
SLOWLY RETREATING INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BODY OF OK
WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD 50KT+ LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OK/KS.
SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS KS INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NWRN MO. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS/NWRN OK WHICH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...SSWWD INTO WEST TX. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM OK NEWD INTO MO. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SRN MOST STALLED BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK OF MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL
FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS A SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL ENCOURAGE
A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
PROPAGATE SEWD. BY EARLY THURSDAY AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED FROM NRN IL...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NWRN TX.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
916. Tazmanian
2:11 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
we now have winter storm Yogi we olny have one more name winter storm to go

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
915. bryanfromkyleTX
2:08 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Looking forward to the cool air coming to south central Texas again this week.....
Member Since: April 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
914. Jedkins01
2:08 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:


True but Im speaking from personal experience as of last year during hurricane season when I was posting a certain model run and got shot down about a potential low not being tropical and it ended up being an invest..I have seen it happen and the NHC labels it..not saying it will happen this time just pointing out that because long range model runs says its not tropical in long range doesent mean it wont change..of course, the models have dropped it now..


Ok I see what your saying, yeah that is definitely true. I was just responding to a premise that models showing a low initiating in the south gulf in April mean its probably tropical when in most cased they aren't.

What you said is true though, we are approaching the hurricane season and you can't rule out a low that develops in the tropics even if its initiation isn't tropical at first or depicted as tropical.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7546
913. PalmBeachWeather
2:07 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
It's a beautiful morning, I think I'll go outside for awhile..and smile..
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5883
912. Jedkins01
2:02 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I think the drought is about over in many places across E C FL. Melbourne picked up 3.79", Sanford 2.29", Daytona Beach 1.03", Orlando Executive Airport 1.40", Orlando International .79.



It's definitely not over, those amounts are not enough to cover the drought, many places across Florida have had large deficits, quite a bit larger than that. It's certainly a good help, but many other places in Florida are terribly dry still, and like I said, even those areas aren't without drought yet. Although 3 inches of rain is certainly enough to help short term drought issues.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7546
911. goosegirl1
1:52 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting NttyGrtty:


I simply found it interesting that economists would even comment on the subject. There's no such thing as bad information...


Maybe not "bad", but there is "incorrect". The goal of any science is to strive to get closer to the correct answer to whatever question you wish to ask, so if you want the best information from the most qualified source, ask the experts.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
910. Tropicsweatherpr
1:50 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting Gearsts:
Yep i'm gonna stalked his twitter today lol.


I hope he sees my post #882 and replies wherever he chooses.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14301
909. washingtonian115
1:47 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Being labeled an invest honestly has nothing to do with the low's structure and characteristics. Most invests are tropical waves/disturbances, which makes sense because that what accounts for the vast majority of tropical cyclones, but a baroclinic cyclone can also be labeled an invest if the NHC thinks it's plausible that the low can start to sustain itself with barotropic processes, which requires it to be in a favorable atmospheric region and over warm enough waters at the time or in the near future. Invest is merely an umbrella term for anything that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Now as it looks in the 00Z analysis, it looks quite unlikely that that vort max will be classified as an invest for a couple of reasons. For one, it lies right in the center of a subtropical jet streak, which is putting massive amounts of horizontal wind shear over it. With it as caught up in the hostile westerly flow as it is, there is very little potential for barotropic processes to sustain itself let alone develop. The other great detriment is that the sea surface temperatures in the potential area of interest are too low for typical tropical activity.

However, with this a 192 hour forecast, there is a whole world of possibility between now and then. Though quite unlikely, conditions may become much more favorable by the time the event occurs (or on the other end of the spectrum, it may not occur entirely). At this point though, we really can't tell. Who knows, maybe eight days out, the NHC will declare 90L as our first invest of the year.
If the NHC labels this an invest then they will be cruley teasing us.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
908. LargoFl
1:43 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
warm and sunny here now,looks to be a nice day..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38982
907. NttyGrtty
1:38 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting goosegirl1:


If you don't mind, I will rely on climatologists to provide my climate science, not economists. Not only that... there really is scientific consensus.

Link

Just as you wouldn't ask your lawyer to deliver your new baby, you probably wouldn't ask an economist about climate :)


I simply found it interesting that economists would even comment on the subject. There's no such thing as bad information...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 835
906. washingtonian115
1:38 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I would like to know what Levi thinks about this. I think is early to throw the towel on an active North Atlantic season.
Usually when this occurs we get something like last year.Storms forming/finding better conditions in the sub-tropics.With smaller storms in the tropics.Usually in a higher pressure environment smaller storms form vs in a lower pressure environment we get bigger storms.

I'm talking about size not strength in case anyone is confused.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
905. goosegirl1
1:35 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Since it's Monday, and Tax Day...why not?

"The Economist and other journalism icons are beginning to reassess their position on global warming."

Link


If you don't mind, I will rely on climatologists to provide my climate science, not economists. Not only that... there really is scientific consensus.

Link

Just as you wouldn't ask your lawyer to deliver your new baby, you probably wouldn't ask an economist about climate :)

edit... or more correctly, you wouldn't ask a journalist, either.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
904. Gearsts
1:33 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I would like to know what Levi thinks about this. I think is early to throw the towel on an active North Atlantic season.
Yep i'm gonna stalked his twitter today lol.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
903. washingtonian115
1:32 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:


1900..you are killing me over here..crushing me left and right..:)..but..I'll wait and see what happens
Yes we are all desperate but we are just gonna have to wait until conditions previel for a tropical entity to form in the Atlantic.I think we might have a invest in May but I don't think we'll see a storm.I think June is a better fit.This season reminds me(from the conditions I'm seeing in the Atlantic now) of a classic hurricane season.First storm forms in June and then we have activity until November.That's how I'm seeing it.I could be wrong of course.Last year was ahead of schedule thanks to a warm winter and hot spring.So hurricane season jumped a month ahead.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
902. pcola57
1:31 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:RE: Post#892
Good morning/afternoon/evening to all!

Reading the blog yesterday, someone asked the question about flooding in North Dakota/Manitoba/Saskatchewan. I apologize for the length of the article but there's some interesting info in it:


Thanks so much for that enlightening post VirginIslandsVisitor..
Very much worth the read..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6836
901. 1900hurricane
1:30 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:


True but Im speaking from personal experience as of last year during hurricane season when I was posting a certain model run and got shot down about a potential low not being tropical and it ended up being an invest..I have seen it happen and the NHC labels it..not saying it will happen this time just pointing out that because long range model runs says its not tropical in long range doesent mean it wont change..of course, the models have dropped it now..

Being labeled an invest honestly has nothing to do with the low's structure and characteristics. Most invests are tropical waves/disturbances, which makes sense because that what accounts for the vast majority of tropical cyclones, but a baroclinic cyclone can also be labeled an invest if the NHC thinks it's plausible that the low can start to sustain itself with barotropic processes, which requires it to be in a favorable atmospheric region and over warm enough waters at the time or in the near future. Invest is merely an umbrella term for anything that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Now as it looks in the 00Z analysis, it looks quite unlikely that that vort max will be classified as an invest for a couple of reasons. For one, it lies right in the center of a subtropical jet streak, which is putting massive amounts of horizontal wind shear over it. With it as caught up in the hostile westerly flow as it is, there is very little potential for barotropic processes to sustain itself let alone develop. The other great detriment is that the sea surface temperatures in the potential area of interest are too low for typical tropical activity.

However, with this a 192 hour forecast, there is a whole world of possibility between now and then. Though quite unlikely, conditions may become much more favorable by the time the event occurs (or on the other end of the spectrum, it may not occur entirely). At this point though, we really can't tell. Who knows, maybe eight days out, the NHC will declare 90L as our first invest of the year.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
900. Tropicsweatherpr
1:30 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting Gearsts:
So is showing less activity hmm


I would like to know what Levi thinks about this. I think is early to throw the towel on an active North Atlantic season.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14301
899. Gearsts
1:27 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The April ECMWF MSLP update is out and show higher pressures in the Atlantic than in the March update.

March Operational July,August,September update:



March Ensemble mean update:



April Operational August,September,October update:



April Ensemble mean for August,September,October update

So is showing less activity hmm
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
898. FlyingScotsman
1:17 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
Get a load of this storm report in Bismarck—astounding!
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
731 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW BISMARCK 46.81N 100.78W
04/15/2013 M23.5 INCH BURLEIGH ND TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH 12TH STREET IN NORTH BISMARCK
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 216

Viewing: 948 - 898

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.