NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

Share this Blog
44
+

The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 548 - 498

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
547. Skyepony (Mod)
Atmosphere has been way more unstable here in East Central FL than yesterday..really muggy too. Had some lightning & mostly scattered big drops of rain so far.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38200


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141703Z - 141830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON OVER CNTRL FL AND
EVENTUALLY SCNTRL AND NCNTRL FL. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY OVER CNTRL THROUGH NCNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL
FL FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO NORTH OF THE TAMPA AREA. NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING...AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 SUPPORTING MLCAPE
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR MELBOURNE ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE SEA BREEZE
AND SEA BREEZE-WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. WHILE FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM IS RATHER
WEAK...MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-45 KT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH EITHER THE WARM FRONT OR
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

..DIAL/KERR.. 04/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 26888136 28078235 29408242 29598166 28638106 27218057
26888136
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
545. Skyepony (Mod)
Blob blowing up in the East Pacific..click pic for loop.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38200
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
543. Skyepony (Mod)
IMELDA
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38200



Watch out Central and especially north Florida peninsula, this system may have caught people by surprise as the Peninsula wasn't even in a see text as of last night, lol.

The SPC is responding to the fact that this system has evolved into one that poses greater severe parameters than the models were suggesting the last few days. They have responded to this change fortunately very quickly.

Now I don't think there will be an outbreak, but there could be at least few severe cells across North and Central Florida today given this:












As the warm front lifts north, expect the high instability over Central Florida to expand into North Florida where the greater dynamics will lie.


Further south into Central Florida is tricky because its already very unstable, most notably for severe weather is the ML CAPE at 2000 j/KG which is very significant. However, this low pressure system is more compact like a tropical system, so its uncertain whether an organized squall line will extend south in time before it passes across Florida. If an organized line of thunderstorms DOES develop in the gulf, watch out as many more hours of heating are set to occur.


Here in the Eastern Panhandle/Big Bend its also tricky because its hard to say whether the warm front will lift north of here in time for thunderstorms to become surface based, if it does, very high Helicity, strong shear, and strong dynamics will bring a tornado threat into Tallahassee.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7605
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1804
Severe weather across the southeast today...tornado watches up

might update it later


Also, if you missed my new blog yesterday (for a reason or another), check it out. The new big list counting 88 people is there.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Reed Timmer ‏@reedtimmerTVN
One year ago today was a prolific tornado outbreak in the Southern Plains w/ 153 tornadoes, including this drill bit.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The SPC has put a slight risk up for a large area of FL, including a 5% tornado area:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Awww, it won't let me watch it from the UK, boooo. Not like get SNL here anyway geesh!


We're finally out of the freezer in N Wales. When I got home from work last night, was a balmy 52'.....though horribly windy and rainy. Rain stopped here this afternoon, though not the winds, really bad. Everything all flooded again too as was torrential from yesterday evening through this morning. But, isn't freezing, so something!
.

Try this >>>>> Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Powerful squall line.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..well Saturday Night Live did a skit last night about The Weather Channel..its official..they have officially became a joke..





Awww, it won't let me watch it from the UK, boooo. Not like get SNL here anyway geesh!


We're finally out of the freezer in N Wales. When I got home from work last night, was a balmy 52'.....though horribly windy and rainy. Rain stopped here this afternoon, though not the winds, really bad. Everything all flooded again too as was torrential from yesterday evening through this morning. But, isn't freezing, so something!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1052 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

ALC003-141600-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-130414T1600Z/
BALDWIN AL-
1052 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 1047 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROBERTSDALE TO 4 MILES EAST OF FOLEY TO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ORANGE BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LINE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY SOON BE CANCELLED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORANGE BEACH... GULF SHORES... SUMMERDALE...
ROBERTSDALE... LILLIAN... FOLEY...
ELBERTA... BON SECOUR...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning and Happy Sunday. For the North Florida crowd; not really expecting a huge tornado threat this afternoon in my neck of the woods (Big Bend)in spite of the watch but plenty of rain a t-storms (second round) this afternoon. See NWS discussion below. Good day to stay indoors an do chores or go to the movies. I did the laundry this am; gonna go to the movies in a little bit and chomp some popcorn..... :)

See Yall tomorrow unless severe weather picks up around here later this evening and stay safe out to my West in the Panhandle; your part of Florida tends to get to brunt of severe weather for North Florida before the fronts die down as they approach the Big Bend..............WW.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1124 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
UPDATED
At 11 am EDT, Warm front was located across extreme nrn gulf with storms strong to severe storms developing along and just to north of boundary across E/Cntrl gulf..... There remains sufficient shear to develop organized bows and with increasing upper divergence from approaching shortwave/trough
should allow these bows to overcome current stable surface later and reach ground this aftn/early eve as warm front lifts nwd. also meso-vortices along boundary can generate waterspouts and isold
tornados.

Local WRF guidance suggest that the timing of storms today will start with showers moving inland around 8 AM EDT this morning, staying along the Florida coast. A line of thunderstorms develops to our west and enters the western part of the forecast area around 3 PM EDT. It starts as a line from Destin to Dothan and moves eastward through the afternoon and evening. The strongest storms stay in Florida, but showers and thunderstorms will still effect our Alabama and Georgia counties.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Blizzard warnings up for North Dakota... (well for nearly 3 hours already up)

a new storm next week for you! :(

759 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS THEN IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT MONDAY.

* TIMING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

* HAZARD...HEAVY SNOW FROM DICKINSON AND KILLDEER TO BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN WILL RECEIVE 10 TO 16 INCHES. PLACES LIKE CROSBY...
WILLISTON... BOWMAN AND HETTINGER WILL RECEIVE 6 TO 10 INCHES. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
H7N9 bird flu update.

It appears to be spreading. Two new cases today, the first ones reported from Henan province. First case reported from Beijing, yesterday. That makes a total of 60 confirmed cases and 13 deaths.

Most cases are probably from poultry, although there is some preliminary evidence of person to person transmission.

Researchers announced a few days ago that it's mutating eight times faster than 'normal', and expressed concerns that this could result in a strain that spreads easily between people.

Won't be time to start worrying until health care workers start going down with it.

This site's a bit of an ordeal to navigate, and it's multilingual, but it's the best I've found for up to the minute information.





www.flutrackers.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any publicity is good publicity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7 day for Tampa bay area..........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'd say it's already blown well past the 75mph mark.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 965.4mb/ 90.0kt



Imelda has certainly had an up and down ride:



I would say yes. A very tight eye. A TS don't have eye's like that. under estimated much!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
March 1993..the storm of the century.............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
stay alert Jedkins,some nasty storms by you............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GAC027-087-131-185-253-275-142200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0105.130414T1500Z-130414T2200Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOKS DECATUR GRADY
LOWNDES SEMINOLE THOMAS
$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-07 3-077-079-091-
113-123-129-131-133-142200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0105.130414T1500Z-130414T2200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$


Loooks like the SPC has changed their outlook in our area. I've been thinking they should as we may just get some violent thunderstorms here later given that surface cyclogenesis is already occurring and that means the warm front may lift north of here later.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7605
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-07 3-077-079-091-
113-123-129-131-133-142200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0105.130414T1500Z-130414T2200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'd say it's already blown well past the 75mph mark.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 965.4mb/ 90.0kt



Imelda has certainly had an up and down ride:



well 90 kt (105 mph) it's a bit too high for me...
but possible
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
good morning everyone...

Imelda could reach 75 mph again...but not for long

I'd say it's already blown well past the 75mph mark.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 965.4mb/ 90.0kt



Imelda has certainly had an up and down ride:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
What a mess on the Gulf Coast this morning, tons of rain coming down with these showers and storms, and a couple of them are producing damaging wind:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
good morning everyone...

Imelda could reach 75 mph again...but not for long
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On the topic of quality and cutting-edge climatology science, we have this parting shot from now-retired NASA scientist James Hansen (and Pushker A. Kharecha):
Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es3051197?jou rnalCode=esthag


"On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000–7.04 million deaths and 80–240 [gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent] emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power."

Good on Hansen to compare two mainstream energy paths and thus keep his opposition to natural gas clear of the issue of the limits of greener energy alternatives. But now Hansen is off to the tar sands and probably more jail time for his pipeline protests, so here is a plug for that yet-greener path.

Suppose we could pay for the development of renewable energy resources in every community on the planet without taking a dime from any national treasury or borrowing a penny from any bank, and suppose all that money stayed in these communities to empower the local development and control of every essential resource. I'm talking about people power. Might that be worth a shot? More than 700 people from more than 40 nations have signed onto a member-owned global network supporting this solution, and the membership is now growing by 7-10% a week. A summary of the info is here:


Reconomy - building the world of the future with the money of the future. http://reconomy.net/Reconomy/policy6.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST HAZARD BEING
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY IN DENSE PATCHES COULD FALL BELOW 1 MILE. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 14h
Widespread storms stay north on Sunday. Scattered storms migrate inland with the sea-breeze over the peninsula
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gee we could USE that 1-3 inches HERE around Tampa bay,not in the cards....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MSC035-141545-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0049.130414T1351Z-130414T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
851 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PETAL...HATTIESBURG...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 851 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR HATTIESBURG...OR NEAR
WEST HATTIESBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RAWLS
SPRINGS...MCLAURIN...SUNRISE...EASTABUCHIE AND MACEDONIA

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO
HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF HIGHWAYS
AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


112
WFUS54 KLIX 141327
TORLIX
LAC087-141400-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0034.130414T1327Z-130414T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
827 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 825 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
YSCLOSKEY...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHALMETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
500. Skyepony (Mod)
Little more on the topic of the entry..

Hoerling — who clearly accepts that man-made global warming is making weather hotter and more extreme
— has published several non-peer-reviewed reports as the lead of NOAA’s
Climate Scene Investigators that claim global warming did not influence
recent catastrophic extremes, such as the 2009-2010 Snowmageddon, the 2010 Russian heat wave, and the 2011 tornado outbreak. Hoerling’s team did conclude, however, that “human-caused global warming
was a factor in the Midwest flooding disaster” of 2008. Hoerling’s
method of ascribing attribution to global warming relies primarily on
statistical analysis of weather records. His method can miss phenomena
that occur because of non-linear changes in the climate system, such as
how the decline in Arctic sea ice caused by global warming is
influencing large-scale circulation patterns.
Peer-reviewed studies that don’t rely on a single test for
attribution have found a clear link between global warming and the
2009-2010 Snowmageddon and the 2010 Russia heat wave.
In a peer-reviewed work, Hoerling did find that the increasing frequency of Mediterranean droughts is caused by global warming.
source
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38200
499. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
CYCLONE TROPICAL IMELDA (10-20122013)
16:00 PM RET April 14 2013
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Imelda (976 hPa) located at 17.9S 59.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 55 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 85 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.2S 60.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 20.2S 61.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.6S 60.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée
72 HRS: 22.1S 57.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================
After having slowly drifted southeastwards since yesterday afternoon, Imelda keeps on tracking southeastwards but accelerating. Intensification keeps on going and eye is better defined since 1000 UTC on both infrared and visible channels meteosat7 imagery. Current mentioned intensity is an average over the last 6 hours. NOAA 1900 UTC imagery shows that radius of maximum winds has contracted and Imelda presents now a more classic structure near the center with however an outer dissymetric structure ( near gale force and gale force winds extension has been recalibrated thanks to partially covered 0511 UTC ASCAT and totally covered 0723 UTC OSCAT swaths. At 1200 UTC, meteosat7 shows a de-phased center on enhanced infrared imagery compared to the visible channel one, used for this fix. Imelda lies under an upper tropospheric ridge with weak vertical wind shear and good upper level divergence mainly polewards (cf. water vapor Imagery).

For the next 36 hours system is expected to track globally southeastwards under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge located to its northeast.

On this forecast track, upper levels conditions are expected to progressively degrade during next night as wind shear increase. However as the shear is on the same direction of the expected track, the negative effect could be somewhat limited initially. On and after Monday, the vertical wind shear is forecast to increase sharply ahead an upper levels trough and system should weaken. On and after Tuesday, the weakening system is expected to track globally westwards steered by the trade-winds flow and evacuate in the extratropical latitudes.

Given the current intensity and the vicinity, all interests in the Mascaregnes Islands should monitor the progress of this system ... particularly interests in Rodrigues Island ... which is currently affected by the first outer active bands located in the southeastern sector of the system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45628
Developing hook echo???

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 548 - 498

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
50 °F
Overcast