NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

Share this Blog
44
+

The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 598 - 548

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Temperature-wise, one might assume that if conditions are favorable for severe storms / tornados in the FL Panhandle, with temps running from 60 - 70 F, that temps here on the Peninsula in the mid-80s would be adequate for such storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quite an active end to a week...

Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 297


Looks like the weather is going cooler for a few. Wouldn't be a good Beach day. 61.0 here right now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS for 8pm tonight...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-142030-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0003.130414T1841Z-130414T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BREVARD-
241 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN INLET...SATELLITE BEACH...
ROCKLEDGE...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...PALM BAY...MERRITT ISLAND...
MELBOURNE...MALABAR...INDIALANTIC...GRANT...COCOA BEACH...COCOA...
CAPE CANAVERAL...CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...BAREFOOT BAY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 237 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BREVARD
COUNTY. MELBOURNE HAS RECEIVED NEARLY 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST
HOUR WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS
TRAIN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2785 8046 2787 8048 2782 8051 2783 8078
2840 8082 2840 8074 2838 8073 2840 8072
2840 8066 2833 8065 2837 8062 2840 8063
2840 8059 2826 8060 2813 8057 2786 8044

$$


MOSES
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Updating my map for the SE severe weather...
more updates if necessary



click on image for larger view
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting LargoFl:
yes things have changed, we need stay alert now, i just hope the sun doesnt break thru the cloud cover, we dont need daytime heating creating instability...



Instability is already significant over Central Florida, there is plenty enough to support surface based severe weather:








Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT/315 PM EDT/

* AT 140 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 31 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE SAN
BLAS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
588. beell


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
About right... another drenching deluge over SE LA where additional rain is about as welcome as more snow accumulation around Fargo -- SE LA radar estimates...

Saturday was a deceptively nice tranquil day, but as expected conditions rapidly deteriorated by nightfall w developing strong tstms along coastal SE LA lifting inland with short wave / warm front backing up / moisture advection, bringing intense CG lightning, lot of nickel size hail, winds 40-60 mph with bowing segments and rotating cells... with hvy rainfall thru overnight tallying widespread 2-4" / up to 6" and flash flooding in spots prompting warnings...

All NWS offices been forecasting event well ahead in AFD's, yet early last night as radar showed intensifying strong tstms with hail cores quickly approaching here, I had to scoff at this (irrelevant) 0Z sounding discussion from KLIX NWS issued after 8 PM Sat night, one that was utterly worthless regarding our impending weather - WTF? Other than noting the jet streak, it only describes preceding (downstream) conditions that remained thru 0Z at Slidell... and up to that point could not reveal the rapid (upstream) atmospheric evolution less than 100 miles to their SW.
Certainly I understand the particulars but wonder how "average joe" interpreted it (if they read it) making plans for the evening... ;)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
809 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND 650-600MB TODAY...BUT THE REGION BELOW 700MB REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY. AS A RESULT...OVERALL PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH...WITH CURRENT VALUES SITTING AT 0.72 INCHES. THIS IS AN INCREASE OF AROUND 0.30 INCHES FROM THIS MORNING... BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT RAINFALL THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK WHICH HAS SERVED TO LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. A STRONG 110 KNOT JET STREAK HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

Good luck those of you getting it now, hope you need the rain more than I do. Let's see... that brings me to 5.35" for April, up to 22.26" for this year (thankfully had a dry March)... All on the heels of a VERY WET 83.51" in 2012, like much of the N Gulf region was in sharp contrast to the Plains / Midwest - no drought here...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ750-770-142000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.MA.W.0057.130414T1837Z-130414T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
137 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA CITY FL TO DESTIN FL OUT 60 NM OVER GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 135 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS...MOVING EAST AT 40 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3010 8568 2928 8572 2937 8651 2998 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 269DEG 42KT 3017 8609 2940 8613

$$

22-BARRY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting LargoFl:
yes things have changed, we need stay alert now, i just hope the sun doesnt break thru the cloud cover, we dont need daytime heating creating instability...
It's been popping through here (33609) occasionally. Feels soupy; I think only a small spark would set us off for some violent weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A tornado watch has been issued for Hillsborough, Pasco, Polk, Hernando and Citrus counties until 10 p.m. tonight.

Klystron 9 radar shows a band of rain moving into the northern part of the state from the Gulf of Mexico.

Watch Weather on the Nines on Bay News 9 for the latest information.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It certainly feels muggy and hot, I just got back from running 3 miles and WOW, I shouldn't gone until 4pm. I came back to the house looking like I just got back from Wet N' Wild.
yeah the air sure is thick with moisture..whew
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting SouthTampa:
It does seem energetic. I wonder if the severe weather will make it this far south though.
yes things have changed, we need stay alert now, i just hope the sun doesnt break thru the cloud cover, we dont need daytime heating creating instability...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting LargoFl:
LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO WATCH IS FROM THE I-4 corridor northward..this includes Orlando etc........i just knew the air was kinda funky as i walked the dogs..something in the air just does not seem right...stay alert folks in central florida.


It certainly feels muggy and hot, I just got back from running 3 miles and WOW, I shouldn't gone until 4pm. I came back to the house looking like I just got back from Wet N' Wild.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thrawst:
Largo... this could be the shield buster day for you. stay safe man.

Thanks..i was off the web and didnt know about this..whew..this caught me by surprise,guess it caught the nws also by surprise..was only a slight chance of showers..now its different..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting LargoFl:
LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO WATCH IS FROM THE I-4 corridor northward..this includes Orlando etc........i just knew the air was kinda funky as i walked the dogs..something in the air just does not seem right...stay alert folks in central florida.
It does seem energetic. I wonder if the severe weather will make it this far south though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
not sure if posted yet

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO WATCH IS FROM THE I-4 corridor northward..this includes Orlando etc........i just knew the air was kinda funky as i walked the dogs..something in the air just does not seem right...stay alert folks in central florida.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
ooohh




rain here
steady soaking rain, more than expected

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WATCH..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!............. TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 106 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-009-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-05 3-057-069-075-
083-089-095-097-101-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-1 27-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0106.130414T1755Z-130415T0200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CITRUS CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY
MARION NASSAU ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO POLK
PUTNAM SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS
SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION
VOLUSIA
$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
571. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:



Watch out Central and especially north Florida peninsula, this system may have caught people by surprise as the Peninsula wasn't even in a see text as of last night, lol.





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...NERN GULF COAST AND N-CNTRL FL/SRN GA...
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS INVOF NRN GULF COAST REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS N AND E DURING
THE DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NERN GULF COAST. DESPITE
MODEST INSTABILITY...A VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE INVOF THE
FRONT AND STRONG SWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW UPDRAFTS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

FARTHER E ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...GREATER AFTERNOON
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...BUT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN W OF THE REGION UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THUS...DEGREE
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED --
LIKELY TIED TO SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS JUSTIFIED FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS...BUT WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY PROBABILITY UPGRADE ATTM UNTIL DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...CNTRL FL PENINSULA...

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM IN THE GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE OF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS AN MCS ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD. STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE NOSE OF
A 40KT LLJ. AS THIS JET SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE
THE FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE ERN GULF
COAST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
HEATING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WELL AHEAD OF
THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE AFFILIATED WITH
FOCUSED LLJ. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND
NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION EVOLVES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was wondering about that one.



Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Radar has indicated considerable rotation within this storm offshore of the FL panhandle. If it survives to the coast it could end up with a tornado warning.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 141805Z - 141930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE TORNADOES PERSIST
OVER THE REMAINING PARTS OF WW 105 INCLUDING THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO THREAT IS SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS SRN HALF
OF THE FL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL ZONES AROUND OR EAST
OF APALACHICOLA...AND APPEARS TO BE MORE MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT
INLAND.

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO
THREAT SO FAR HAS BEEN THE INABILITY OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO
ADVANCE INLAND. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOW THE WARM FRONT
OFFSHORE OVER THE NRN GULF. STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HAVE EXHIBITED OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH COMMA HEAD MOVING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
PANHANDLE...WHILE DISCRETE SFC BASED STORMS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE
NEAR THE FRONT. AS A RESULT THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WIND INLAND FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST MAINLY ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.

..DIAL.. 04/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 29598353 29728511 30138567 30698537 30678395 30318324
29598353
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Radar has indicated considerable rotation within this storm offshore of the FL panhandle. If it survives to the coast it could end up with a tornado warning.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I noticed that a tornado watch was just issued for Central FL counties. Does a tornado watch automatically include a severe thunderstorm watch, plus the risk of tornadoes as well? I had always assumed that is does. I just ask, however, because the hazardous weather outlook, issued around the same time, mentions the possibility of strong (but not severe) thunderstorms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
.

Try this >>>>> Link


Wooo thank you Aussie! Looks to be working :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Skye...adding to your comment 560

I was shocked back in 2010 after I was noticing the unusual quake activity just after the year begun.

Haiti gets the lethal 7.0 in January (over 316 THOUSAND people!!!) ...scary, then the huge 8.8 in Chile a month after, then Baja California/California gets hit by the 7.2 in April in that same month a big 7.8 hits Indonesia immediately followed by a deadly 6.9 in China killing nearly 2,700 people...

I'm afraid to continue...that year was extreme in quakes

Calexico (or Mexicali) quake of 2010 by USGS
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Largo... this could be the shield buster day for you. stay safe man.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS has "something" moving up the east coast as well in the same time frame as the CMC but not as strong

Looking at the 850 mb plots with temp I see a rush of cold air over the eastern U.S. at the same time, so it looks very extratropical.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5912
562. VR46L
Looks like the Golf might get some interesting weather

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The latest MDR data shows some warming again.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13926
560. Skyepony (Mod)
em>Between 8-12 April, five earthquakes were located within or along the margins of the Newberry caldera by the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN, www.pnsn.org). The first two occurred at 04:19 & 04:20 PDT on 04/08 and were followed over the next 20 minutes by eight smaller (and therefore unlocatable) earthquakes. "Three days later at 5:01 PDT a "low-frequency event", so-called because it lacks higher-frequency waves that are commonly observed in regular earthquakes, occurred at a depth of cc. 8 km. Finally on 04/12 two additional earthquakes occurred at 02:28 and 04:06 PDT. The largest of these five events was a M 1.2. These five events appear as orange or red (two most recent) circles in the below map-view plot. "Although these five events are nothing to get excited about, they are noteworthy because only six other earthquakes have been located within or along the margins of the Newberry caldera since the Newberry seismic network was expanded from one to nine seismic stations in the summer of 2011 (none of these events would have been detected prior to 2011).

"In addition, the 04/11 event is the first low-frequency event ever recorded in the Newberry area. Low-frequency events are not unusual at volcanoes, and when observed are commonly thought to reflect movement of fluid (water, gas, or other) through cracks. Given that there are active hot springs within the caldera, the occasional occurrence of such events should not be surprising. "An unusual feature of this low-frequency event is its depth (8 km). Since the 1980s, such "deep low-frequency events" have been seen intermittently at Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount St. Helens. At these other volcanoes the deep low-frequency events occur as part of background seismicity and have not been associated with eruptions or unrest at the surface (for more information about these type of events in the Cascades, see Nichols et al. (2011)). Although intriguing from a volcanological perspective, these events are again nothing to get excited about.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37159
Yep...new tornado watch for central-northern Florida...
l'll update my map soon

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Gearsts,what does your post in 541 show?
Slow trade winds with a positive NAO.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1365
WOUS64 KWNS 141750
WOU6

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 106 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-009-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053 -057-069-075-
083-089-095-097-101-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-12 7-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0106.130414T1755Z-130415T0200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CITRUS CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY
MARION NASSAU ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO POLK
PUTNAM SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS
SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION
VOLUSIA


GAC039-049-065-101-299-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0106.130414T1755Z-130415T0200Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
ECHOLS WARE


AMZ450-452-454-550-552-GMZ850-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0106.130414T1755Z-130415T0200Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

02016

VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS has "something" moving up the east coast as well in the same time frame as the CMC but not as strong





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gearsts,what does your post in 541 show?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
554. VR46L
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Interesting ob at this time, to me, at least.
Our high temp today is progged to be 70-71 our low tonight, 66, currently it's 58.6 on da Bayou.


Be careful up there !! Some Nasties out in the Gulf

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
second run in a row for the CMC but the 12z run has a stronger storm forming off the east coast of Florida..not skilled on determining if tropical characteristics without the FSU assistance which doesnt go out in long range..anyone know if tropical or just a regular NE runner?





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting ob at this time, to me, at least.
Our high temp today is progged to be 70-71 our low tonight, 66, currently it's 58.6 on da Bayou.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
551. VR46L
Some cells popping up in central Florida

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
550. MahFL
The humidity shot up from 34% to 62%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
549. MahFL
We had heavy rain and thunder and the temps have cooled to 66 F now, in Orange Park.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 598 - 548

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.