NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

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The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I remember one time was in Pasadena, it was awful and like 95'. So we headed to Santa Monica....was about 60' with the marine layer...had to buy a sweater! haha Funny, 60' is warm to me now!


"Jedkins01

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.
During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more."



That's just Murphy's Law ;p Seriously though, back in Palm Springs in the mid-90's...would be SO hot and muggy, you'd see the clouds building...but we NEVER got the thunderstorms or rain! Would always wait until closer to Imperial/San Bernadino country or the Az border, you just prayed and prayed PLEASE let us have it! But no LOL



lol yeah I know what you mean, I actually lived in California for a year, lived a few miles inland. The difference is though its normal to be dry there all the time, climatology normal yearly rainfall is roughly 4 to 8 inches in most of those areas of southern California, some spots a tad more, some even less. The normal yearly rainfall in Central Florida is 40 to 60 inches depending on what location. When drought happens there its much scarier because you don't know when its going to end. You also know when it does end, it will probably end with a bang followed by too much rain, that's what happened last year.


Of course, I shouldn't say drought isn't scary in southern California because it is already dry, drier than normal can mean the threat of epic fires, yikes!
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Getting very heavy rain and some CG lightning and gusty winds right now. The cooler layer north of the warm front is really shallow here as I can easily see the convective clouds racing from south to north not far above the cooler stable air with some low stratus and scud moving north to south.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Marine Layer sometimes caused by a coastal eddy. It is a fixture here during June. At least it isn't hot and humid.


I remember one time was in Pasadena, it was awful and like 95'. So we headed to Santa Monica....was about 60' with the marine layer...had to buy a sweater! haha Funny, 60' is warm to me now!


"Jedkins01

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.
During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more."



That's just Murphy's Law ;p Seriously though, back in Palm Springs in the mid-90's...would be SO hot and muggy, you'd see the clouds building...but we NEVER got the thunderstorms or rain! Would always wait until closer to Imperial/San Bernadino country or the Az border, you just prayed and prayed PLEASE let us have it! But no LOL
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 142017Z - 142145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES PERSISTS ACROSS WW 106. THE GREATEST
NEAR TERM SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NCNTRL FL NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE ASCENT
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER NCNTRL FL AS WELL AS WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE SEA BREEZE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DESTABILIZED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
BACKED TO ELY JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT
LARGER HODOGRAPHS THAN IN WARM SECTOR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45
KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE TORNADOES WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT.

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD
TOWARD NRN FL THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND LIKELY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS AND A SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 04/14/2013
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A band of showers associated with a cold front is approaching towards Oahu.

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643. beell

RAP 700mb temps-19Z
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Temps have been in the 80's for hours in Central Florida...

There must be missing trigger I agree, no lift? I don't know.


maybe an outflow boundary will move through and start something.

Things seem to be starting here and there.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
Largo: Maybe some of these will make their way down here.
Link
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this cell is still trucking along...I wonder if it has/had a waterspout with.



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Good afternoon everyone hope all of you are having a great day.
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Hello from very blizzardy North Dakota!

I've been a mostly lurker here since 2005. We here in central North Dakota are rarely in the weather spotlight. With this blizzard, the NWS has updated our expected snow totals from 12 to 18+ inches.

I'm in a second floor apartment and would guess we've received about 10 inches so far.

I'm grateful we didn't have freezing rain before the snow started. No power losses that I know of. Monday's going to be a digging out day.

Keep warm,
Maddy



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Skip to the line break if you don't want to read the recap from blog2373page3, 4, and 5
124 yonzabam: 16,000 dead pigs and 1,000 dead ducks in Chinese river
Ducks I could understand, but 16,000 dead pigs? Even if the water was contaminated with a deadly toxin - and there seems to be no evidence of that, as yet - how would the pigs actually end up in the river?
That's an awful lot of pork, and the Chinese love their pork, so what the heck has happened here? Anyone got a suggestion?

136 aspectre: Agricultural, environmental, and health authorities refusing to do their jobs. There was a deadly swine ?flu? virus epidemic that made the pigs contagious; unsellable, not even as meat. So producers just killed them and dumped 'em in the river... or at least the somewhat scrupulous ones did.
Ducks are often raised alongside of pigs over there. (Leading to fears that genetic recombinations of porcine and avian influenzas will create deadly strains that can crossover into humans.)
145 yonzabam: Great hypothesis. The reason so many novel flu viruses emerge from China is that pigs and ducks are reared together. Avian flu infects the ducks, but usually isn't transmissible to humans.
However, the ducks transmit it to pigs, and the virus undergoes genetic changes in their mammalian host, which sometimes results in a flu that can be passed on to people.

163 aspectre: If you are referring to the deadly viral epidemic amongst pigs, twas reported as factual in the Chinese press.
If you are referring to local Chinese agricultural, environmental, and health authorities failing to do their jobs on all fronts, even China's Politburo and its CentralCommittee are trying to expose and address that problem.
165 yonzabam: The viral epidemic. Strange it wasn't mentioned in the BBC story.
208 aspectre: Turns out it was reported as a porcine circovirus rather than as an influenza virus.
Unsurprisingly considering the degree of corruption amongst the local officials, more-than-13,000 dead pigs found floating and still the "Water quality in the Huangpu River has been normal up to now," [according to an] official at the Shanghai Information Office. He also stressed that porcine circovirus cannot be contracted by humans... cough cough

526 yonzabam: H7N9 bird flu update. It appears to be spreading. Two new cases today, the first ones reported from Henan province. First case reported from Beijing, yesterday.
That makes a total of 60 confirmed cases and 13 deaths. Most cases are probably from poultry, although there is some preliminary evidence of person to person transmission.
Researchers announced a few days ago that it's mutating eight times faster than 'normal', and expressed concerns that this could result in a strain that spreads easily between people.


Extracted from an earlier article in The Atlantic magazine:
A new strain of avian flu called H7N9 has infected at least seven humans and killed three in provinces near the Chinese metropolis of Shanghai, with the first death occurring on March 4.
Meanwhile, in the last month, about 16,000 pigs, 1,000 ducks, and a few swans have been pulled dead from Chinese rivers.
An April 2nd World Health Organization (WHO) statement that scientists could find "no evidence of any connection" between the dead pigs and the human victims can no longer be found on its website.

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636. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:



Temps have been in the 80's for hours in Central Florida...

There must be missing trigger I agree, no lift? I don't know.


I don't know either. Just a guess. That particular mechanism is not an instantaneous process.
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I concur on not knowing why there are no storms developing in C FL. Perhaps, there is a cap in place.





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634. beell
Earlier convection on the east coast did leave a westward moving boundary.

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Quoting beell:


Could be you don't have much of a trigger over central FL other than reaching the convective temp. Forecast convective temps are around 77-80°F. So maybe not long.




Temps have been in the 80's for hours in Central Florida...

There must be missing trigger I agree, no lift? I don't know.
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This event is VERY high helicity/shear in northern gulf coast states, but potentially very low instability...

just like winter.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
some storm clouds popping in South Florida now..

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
The next snowstorm developing in the CO/WY Rockies

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
628. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm wondering if there might be some sort of CAP present...

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.

During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more.



Could be you don't have much of a trigger over central FL other than reaching the convective temp. Forecast convective temps are around 77-80°F. So maybe not long.

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It's gonna be another warm and stormy week here in Kings Mills, OH.
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.BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A JET
STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE VERY POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS ON THE ORDER OF 100-110
KNOTS AT 250MB. WE LOOK TO BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THAT JET
STREAK WITH VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE. THE GFS IS
ACTUALLY DEPICTING A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS. NO DOUBT...POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN
THE CARDS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW CONFIDENCE TORNADO
THREAT IN THE HWO. THE ONE THING THAT KEEPS US FROM INCREASING THE
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING SINCE
THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO...DEW POINTS ARE BEING ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE MID 60S...WHICH
ARE LOWER THAN OBSERVED DEW POINTS WERE DURING OUR LAST SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ON THE 11TH. OF COURSE...THE LONG RANGE MODELS MIGHT
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...AND NO
DOUBT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS DAY BY DAY
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
ouch

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FUTURE GUIDANCE...AS A MENTION IN THE HWO WILL BECOME NEEDED IF THE
TEMP FORECAST HOLDS.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I was thinking about that too.. should fire up at any moment


I'm wondering if there might be some sort of CAP present...

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.

During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more.

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting Jedkins01:
Its weird that thunderstorms aren't breaking out yet over Central Florida. There is deep moisture in the region, instability is quite impressive with surface CAPE of 2000 to 3000, steep low level lapse rates and pretty impressive mid level lapse rates as well.


I was thinking about that too.. should fire up at any moment
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Its weird that thunderstorms aren't breaking out yet over Central Florida. There is deep moisture in the region, instability is quite impressive with surface CAPE of 2000 to 3000, steep low level lapse rates and pretty impressive mid level lapse rates as well.
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Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Thrawst:


What's the cause for all the low clouds always being over that area?


Marine Layer sometimes caused by a coastal eddy. It is a fixture here during June. At least it isn't hot and humid.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5962
Haven't seen anyone chatting about it here, but the blizzard in ND is really getting crazy. Bismarck's already got over 14", with snow still coming down at 1-2" per hour. Their all-time 24-hour record, 15.9", looks certain to fall today. On April 14th!
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617. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
These two cells are the most likely dangerous (big winds, tornado-producers) storms...I think
about to move ashore, especially the 1st one..


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
These two cells are the most likely dangerous (big winds, tornado-producers) storms...I think
about to move ashore, especially the 1st one..




Max the second cell you point out has a nadar signature ...
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on some other note..the wintry side of this

AccuWeather.com %u200F@breakingweather 7m
14 inches of snow reported on the ground just north of Downtown Bismarck, N.D. Still heavy snow falling.

they are in a blizzard warning...could get just below 2' of snow... 12-18"
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Im off subject but am wondering if the red river is still going to flood yet as Jeff mentioned last week .

Current temp 97 sky smokie
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC037-142015-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0087.130414T1921Z-130414T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT/315 PM CDT/

* AT 215 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ST GEORGE ISLAND...
OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 2962 8507 2962 8498 2968 8486 2969 8490
2972 8489 2968 8486 2969 8482 2979 8467
2980 8463 2984 8458 2983 8456 2979 8458
2977 8468 2968 8478 2959 8498 2958 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 245DEG 27KT 2961 8496

$$
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Just came in from working in the yard all morning to check the real weather forcast here. It's raining to the north and south of the DeLand, FL area,which is what has happened the last 2 weeks! We need rain, but not the storms. The sun just came out...please just rain.
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a couple of convective cloud areas out over gulf moving ene towards tampa strong south sea breeze flow coming up over south fla good feeding supply for storms

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
These two cells are the most likely dangerous (big winds, tornado-producers) storms...I think
about to move ashore, especially the 1st one..


Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I think I saw something there... did not have a "senior moment" I had then... lol


it was the 12z run from yesterday..I needed the one from today:)
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39730
Quoting ncstorm:
edited..wrong run


I think I saw something there... did not have a "senior moment" then... lol
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting PedleyCA:


Looks like the weather is going cooler for a few. Wouldn't be a good Beach day. 61.0 here right now.



What's the cause for all the low clouds always being over that area?
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1900
edited..wrong run
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Looks as if the severe threat will slide just south of Tallahassee as usual with these type of events, probably going to just get some nice heavy rain with some thunder here.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39730
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Temperature-wise, one might assume that if conditions are favorable for severe storms / tornados in the FL Panhandle, with temps running from 60 - 70 F, that temps here on the Peninsula in the mid-80s would be adequate for such storms.
yes its going to be a very watchful evening around central florida..until 10pm i think the nws said.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39730
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39730
599. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:


Been looking at that stuff off the Panhandle for a while there seems to be some nasty stuff in it and I see a warning has gone up...



WUUS52 KTAE 141842
SVRTAE
FLC037-141915-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0086.130414T1842Z-130414T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
142 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT/315 PM EDT/

* AT 140 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 31 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE SAN
BLAS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 2961 8508 2963 8515 2965 8516 2969 8509
2967 8506 2963 8509 2962 8507 2961 8502
2963 8495 2967 8489 2967 8482 2958 8504
2958 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 241DEG 37KT 2947 8527

$$
BARRY
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Temperature-wise, one might assume that if conditions are favorable for severe storms / tornados in the FL Panhandle, with temps running from 60 - 70 F, that temps here on the Peninsula in the mid-80s would be adequate for such storms.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.