NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

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The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Not too bad
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Looks like i've been missing an active day... Got back from my camping trip so i'm ready to track some severe storms XD
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Showers moving in to Oahu.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Looks like I-94 East is closed near Barnesville Mn do to 2 tractor trailers on their sides. One seems to be carrying livestock as I have seen a couple local farmers bring their trailers in to the accident area. Doug K is streaming live from the scene.
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692. beell



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FL SPACE COAST TO THE FL BIG BEND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 142244Z - 150015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A CLUSTER OF QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL FL AND WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD FROM THE FL
BIG BEND VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED WARM FRONT FROM
DAB TO 15 MI WSW CTY WITH THE EAST SEA BREEZE FRONT APPROXIMATELY 50
MI INLAND. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES AND AT THEIR INTERSECTION...SERVING AS PREFERRED STORM
EMBRYO LOCATIONS. WEAK SUPERCELLS EXHIBITING WEAK LOW LEVEL
ROTATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL FL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
POSE AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WIND POTENTIAL AND A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT.

FARTHER W...40 KT EWD MOTION OF A MATURE SQUALL LINE AND WEAK
CYCLONIC SHEAR IN THE FORM OF WEAK MESOVORTICES COULD POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE SQUALL LINE INVOF THE DECAYING WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE IN
AREAS FARTHER N TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER HAS HINDERED SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION WITH ISOLD DMGG WIND POTENTIAL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..SMITH.. 04/14/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16864
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
I love the new further south surfacce low on the new GFS




now:



before:




with good CAPE we could have a few tornadoes in MS/LA/AR
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TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-095-117-127-142345-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0010.130414T2243Z-130414T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
643 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SCOTTSMOOR...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER PARK...UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...MAITLAND...GOLDENROD...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...SANFORD...OVIEDO...
LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...LAKE JESSUP...GENEVA...CHULUOTA...
CASSELBERRY...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT.

* AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WINTER
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SANFORD AIRPORT...MIDWAY...OSTEEN AND MAYTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2905 8099 2878 8083 2870 8083 2853 8135
2878 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 245DEG 22KT 2869 8128

$$


MOSES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
did anyone see the long range GFS? holy sheeze..









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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...N-CNTRL/NE OK...FAR W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142236Z - 150030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO A MODERATELY WARM AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SVR COVERAGE
BUT A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE LIKELY. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE
KS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS MIXED TO AROUND 800 MB /PER RAP
SOUNDINGS/ AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
RELATIVELY WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-800 MB IS LIMITING
INSTABILITY...WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPE AROUND 500 J PER
KG. THESE INSTABILITY VALUES MAY BE A LITTLE LOW...SINCE 22Z
RAP-BASED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW DEWPOINT VALUES THAT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS NOT DEPICTED WELL IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FARTHER S...SOME TALLER CU HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF WEAK TRIPLE POINT
NEAR MAJOR COUNTY OK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J PER KG.

GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 45 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS/HAIL EXISTS. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/14/2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes, Jedkins.

I forgot to mention the gusty winds...
Just because the storms cleared, does not mean you are off the hook now, look to your west... Ya know...

stay safe there...big rain, thunderstorms, wind and possible flash flooding coming over to your area.
tornado watch cancelled..I see


There really isn't much else headed my why but light showers, the surface low is crossing the area now so convective rains are done.

It looks like an organized convective line is beginning to organize in the gulf on Tampa long range radar, hopefully it will hold strong and bring needed rain.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7828
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH FL ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING UP ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN TUE-FRI, A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS THE WEATHER LOOKS TO
BECOME POTENTIALLY QUITE ACTIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SETS UP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FL,
AND A SLOW MOVING ONE AT THAT. SO A RATHER DRY WORK WEEK AHEAD
FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY STORMY WEEKEND. I KNOW, NOT WELL TIMED!



Hey it will be May before you know it and that's when the action starts again in South Florida.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7828
Quoting Tazmanian:



how you like it all so what kind of laptop did you get all so how you like window 8?
I got a hp laptop.I have windows 8 but it's so confusing to work with.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Can anyone imagine getting 24 inches of snow in the middle of April
Sadly enough, yes. In 2008 we got 36 inches in April
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Live video on I94 of insane mid April blizzard conditions near Fergus Falls MN. Check DougK's stream:
DougK Live mobile chaser video
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Miami NWS Disco

DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH FL ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING UP ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN TUE-FRI, A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS THE WEATHER LOOKS TO
BECOME POTENTIALLY QUITE ACTIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SETS UP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FL,
AND A SLOW MOVING ONE AT THAT. SO A RATHER DRY WORK WEEK AHEAD
FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY STORMY WEEKEND. I KNOW, NOT WELL TIMED!
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Just got my brand new computer!.Ha ha yes!.

It's beautiful here in D.C today.Hard to believe that it's snowing somewhere else in the U.S.Just shows how crazy the jet stream can be in April.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I live in Tallahassee by FSU, we have gotten some pretty heavy rain and a couple of stronger thunderstorms. The cool stable air near the surface prevented us from seeing anything too bad but the winds have gusted upwards of 45 mph or so when the stronger cell came through with intense rainfall and some potent lightning but nothing terrible. Pretty much run of the mill thunderstorms for Florida, but still nice and enjoyable for sure :)

now we are getting steady rain with gusty winds, the thunderstorms have cleared through.


yes, Jedkins.

I forgot to mention the gusty winds...
Just because the storms cleared, does not mean you are off the hook now, look to your west... Ya know...

stay safe there...big rain, thunderstorms, wind and possible flash flooding coming over to your area.
tornado watch cancelled..I see
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
555 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC069-142215-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130414T2215Z/
LAKE-
555 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TAVARES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION WERE LOCATED NEAR
THE VILLAGES AND MASCOTTE...ALSO MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8195 2896 8166 2905 8165 2902 8148
2858 8180 2862 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 210DEG 23KT 2880 81
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I had a feeling the greatest severe threat would be over NE Florida since they had the most heating combined with greater dynamics.

Central Florida is very moist and unstable but is struggling to get cells going. I'm not sure why but probably a lack of lift or maybe some sort of cap buried within overall fairly steep lapse rates.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7828


Still not clear- Makes me shiver 63.4 here.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Quoting pcola57:


Picnic Table survived Max.. :)
Apalachicola got hit with a tornado I think..
We got 1.07" here and it's stopped raining..
I believe we are done here..
Tallahassee and Jacksonville look bad now..
Don't know why the CE Fl hasn't got much..
Maybe they will before it's all said and done..


I see,
I expect over 1" from Mobile, AL trhough Jacksonville...
sorry for the wet stormy day. Maybe good for the trees


Gotta check out that picnic table one day...
:)



I live in Tallahassee by FSU, we have gotten some pretty heavy rain and a couple of stronger thunderstorms. The cool stable air near the surface prevented us from seeing anything too bad but the winds have gusted upwards of 45 mph or so when the stronger cell came through with intense rainfall and some potent lightning but nothing terrible. Pretty much run of the mill thunderstorms for Florida, but still nice and enjoyable for sure :)

now we are getting steady rain with gusty winds, the thunderstorms have cleared through.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7828
NWS Twin Cities ‏@NWSTwinCities 25m
Today is the 6th day in a row MSP has had snow. It's a record for April! The previous record for consecutive days in April was set in 1928!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting pcola57:


Picnic Table survived Max.. :)
Apalachicola got hit with a tornado I think..
We got 1.07" here and it's stopped raining..
I believe we are done here..
Tallahassee and Jacksonville look bad now..
Don't know why the CE Fl hasn't got much..
Maybe they will before it's all said and done..


___

I see,
I expect over 1" from Mobile, AL through Jacksonville, FL
sorry for the wet stormy day. Maybe good for the trees


Gotta check out that picnic table one day...
:)
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
According to the 12Z GFS it looks like most of the rains awaited for the end of the week will fall over and around Martinique-Dominica-Guadeloupe.... and once again the Northern islands won't get much.

This morning, the San Juan NWS said the NE Carib would get a good weather event during the latter part of the coming week..... but unfortunately they have changed their mind this afternoon!

>> Morning discussion :

GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
THIS TROUGH PATTERN WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.


>> Latest discussion :

THE GFS BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR IN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL HOLD.
NEVERTHELESS INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRIER THAN THE FIRST PART...THEN MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT CAPPING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY MID LAYERS TO KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OVERALL WITH ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS.
(wow what a change)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


a really wet day for you my friend... how did it go (that picnic table?)


red dot?


Picnic Table survived Max.. :)
Apalachicola got hit with a tornado I think..
We got 1.07" here and it's stopped raining..
I believe we are done here..
Tallahassee and Jacksonville look bad now..
Don't know why the CE Fl hasn't got much..
Maybe they will before it's all said and done..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:




a really wet day for you my friend... how did it go (that picnic table?)


red dot?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX: RE: Post#659


it knew it... it was a tornado there near Apalachicola.


That storm is still there Max..
Tornado not though..
Look at the line of T'sorm in the bottom NEXRAD Image I posted..
(Post# 665)
Still looks quite active..
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DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE ASCENT
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER NCNTRL FL AS WELL AS WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE SEA BREEZE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DESTABILIZED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
BACKED TO ELY JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT
LARGER HODOGRAPHS THAN IN WARM SECTOR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45
KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE TORNADOES WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT.

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD
TOWARD NRN FL THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND LIKELY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS AND A SEVERE THREAT.
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Doppler indicated possible tornado, Lake County, Fl. It's finally raining here!
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Jacksonville, FL (KJAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Tallahassee, FL (KTLH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


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Looks like the storms are firing now.

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WFUS52 KMLB 142130
TORMLB
FLC069-142215-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0009.130414T2130Z-130414T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
530 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...THE VILLAGES...TAVARES...PAISLEY...
MOUNT DORA...LISBON...LEESBURG...LAKE HARRIS...LAKE GRIFFIN...LADY
LAKE...HOWEY IN THE HILLS...EUSTIS...EMERALDA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

* AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOWEY IN THE HILLS...OR NEAR MASCOTTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FRUITLAND PARK...LEESBURG AIRPORT...THE VILLAGES...MID FLORIDA
LAKES AND PITTMAN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8195 2896 8166 2905 8165 2902 8148
2858 8180 2862 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 210DEG 23KT 2866 8187

$$


MOSES




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Quoting FlyingScotsman:
>And there you have it, folks. A new 24-hr. record.


They are going to shatter that record if tonight's initial forecast holds up..."3-7 inches" Can anyone imagine getting 24 inches of snow in the middle of April and setting your 24-hour record?
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM SNOW BISMARCK 46.81N 100.78W
04/14/2013 M16.2 INCH BURLEIGH ND COCORAHS

STILL SNOWING


And there you have it, folks. A new 24-hr. record.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


it knew it... it was a tornado there near Apalachicola.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW IA INTO NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142028Z - 142200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP S/SW FROM SW
IA INTO NW MO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SW IA IN THE VICINITY OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD THIS
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S INTO CNTRL IA AND NRN MO...SFC MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEG F...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD IN GENERAL
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW COULD OVERCOME POOR
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A FEW MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 39549494 39909494 40929477 41749444 42059410 42209353
42089290 41589238 41009224 40199250 39659292 39389354
39239401 39329463 39549494


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Wow.

To say tornadoes are possible in eastern Arkansas on Thursday with this kind of hodograph is an understatement.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32508
Just wondering if wet weather causes epic fires in south California. More vegetation grows only to turn to fuel when the normal pattern resumes.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6092
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167


Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
this cell is still trucking along...I wonder if it has/had a waterspout with.





It looks like it did.

1933 EASTPOINT FRANKLIN FL 2975 8487 WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE IN EASTPOINT. (TAE)
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW IA INTO NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142028Z - 142200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP S/SW FROM SW
IA INTO NW MO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SW IA IN THE VICINITY OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD THIS
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S INTO CNTRL IA AND NRN MO...SFC MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEG F...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD IN GENERAL
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW COULD OVERCOME POOR
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A FEW MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/14/2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe an outflow boundary will move through and start something.

Things seem to be starting here and there.

There is a boundary near Tampa Bay that is trying to get a few showers/storms going.
This image was taken 10 minutes ago or so.


the most recent image shows only one storm has been able to get going though.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I remember one time was in Pasadena, it was awful and like 95'. So we headed to Santa Monica....was about 60' with the marine layer...had to buy a sweater! haha Funny, 60' is warm to me now!


"Jedkins01

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.
During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more."



That's just Murphy's Law ;p Seriously though, back in Palm Springs in the mid-90's...would be SO hot and muggy, you'd see the clouds building...but we NEVER got the thunderstorms or rain! Would always wait until closer to Imperial/San Bernadino country or the Az border, you just prayed and prayed PLEASE let us have it! But no LOL



lol yeah I know what you mean, I actually lived in California for a year, lived a few miles inland. The difference is though its normal to be dry there all the time, climatology normal yearly rainfall is roughly 4 to 8 inches in most of those areas of southern California, some spots a tad more, some even less. The normal yearly rainfall in Central Florida is 40 to 60 inches depending on what location. When drought happens there its much scarier because you don't know when its going to end. You also know when it does end, it will probably end with a bang followed by too much rain, that's what happened last year.


Of course, I shouldn't say drought isn't scary in southern California because it is already dry, drier than normal can mean the threat of epic fires, yikes!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7828

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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