NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

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The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
317 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

HIC003-150415-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0069.130415T0117Z-130415T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
317 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 615 PM HST

* AT 306 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN MOVING ON TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF OAHU NEAR PEARL HARBOR. SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES INDICATE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAIKELE...KUNIA...WHITMORE VILLAGE...WAIPIO...WAIPAHU...WAIMALU...
WAHIAWA...SCHOFIELD BARRACKS...PEARL CITY...NANAKULI...MILILANI
TOWN AND AIEA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 615 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2137 15818 2161 15799 2146 15788 2131 15775
2124 15773 2127 15812

$$

DEJESUS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
NEAR SPACE COAST STADIUM
...OR NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND VIERA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

Weird wording...


Well, good for the tornado that it is finally getting its confidence up. Hope it goes and plays well. Good luck Mr. Tornado!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
746. Skyepony (Mod)
I'm south of the one headed toward Rockledge. Can see a shelf in front of the near constant lightning. Weather is crazy out there..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
NEAR SPACE COAST STADIUM
...OR NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND VIERA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

Weird wording...

It's good the tornado doesn't have self-esteem problems.

A confident tornado is a good tornado.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
NEAR SPACE COAST STADIUM
...OR NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND VIERA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

Weird wording...
Yeah. They are basicly saying is "We are almost positive it is on the ground or is seconds away from being on the ground". Scary wording used today for sure.

Edit: When I first read it my mind fixed it for me. I reread it and yeah that is weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
NEAR SPACE COAST STADIUM
...OR NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND VIERA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

Weird wording...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7303
There is a possible tornado headed for the Cocoa Beach area.
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Full size
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Beautiful bird wing supercell...rotation is increasing with it.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
This is worrying. Large inflow notch formed on the other storm.

Inflow notch is has some very stron winds starting to come into it. You can see them flowing into the storm on radar.

NASA may be in for some trouble.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The new tornado warned storm is looking pretty good, it may try for a quick spin-up tornado like the last one.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7303
Quoting Levi32:


Not even that. The thickness (~temperature) gradient across the center of the storm tells you it's not shallow warm-core, and the center of the storm is under the upper-level jetstream, so it's not vertically stacked with a cold pool either.




thanks levi, i almost lost my dinner when i heard the words "may be subtropical"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
736. beell
That particular cell had/has decent velocity and a semi-broad circulation around 5,000'. Not impossible to reach the surface.

Edit: NM, was looking at the new warned right mover NW of Melbourne. Not the cell offshore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just as I say ignore that tvs, that line of thunderstorms gets tornado warned.

WFUS52 KMLB 150102
TORMLB
FLC009-150200-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0013.130415T0102Z-130415T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
902 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ROCKLEDGE...PORT CANAVERAL...PATRICK
AIR FORCE BASE...MERRITT ISLAND...LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...COCOA
BEACH...COCOA...CAPE CANAVERAL...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

* AT 900 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
VIERA...SUNTREE AND JETTY PARK

THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN. TORNADOES ARE OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WHICH ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.

THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO SEE. BE SMART AND REACT NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2816 8086 2838 8088
2843 8075 2841 8073 2844 8073 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 250DEG 12KT 2829 8083

$$


MOSES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



Not good...
It has really fallen apart in the last few frames. If it will cycle again it will be over the water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
852 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130415T0130Z/
BREVARD-
852 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 846 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS CROSSING
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY NEAR COCOA TOWARDS MERRITT ISLAND AND
STATE ROUTE 5 28...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BELLWOOD...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK...PORT CANAVERAL...KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER...MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE AND PLAYALINDA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO
. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2835 8060 2833 8064 2835 8065
2832 8065 2821 8081 2836 8087 2852 8078
2850 8076 2841 8073 2852 8073 2853 8077
2854 8073 2860 8073 2868 8069 2868 8066
2871 8067 2859 8057 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 221DEG 23KT 2841 8071

$$


KELLY



Not good...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The rotation isn't nearly as strong as it was a couple of frames ago, which is good. The new threat is going to be damaging winds in excess of 60mph in these areas. Ignore the green TVS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxTracker15:


and just as I post that, it weakens.
Good chance it was a short lived EF 0-1. Good thing it will not have much time to cycle before it goes over land.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I love how a supercell can have pitiful rotation, but as soon as I say something it rapidly develops into a tornado.


and just as I post that, it weakens.
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Can sea spray from a waterspout imitate a debris ball signature?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I love how a supercell can have pitiful rotation, but as soon as I say something it rapidly develops into a tornado.
I think your data updates may be slow. Had the same frame when I first posted. Maybe update refresh time?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
852 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130415T0130Z/
BREVARD-
852 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 846 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS CROSSING
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY NEAR COCOA TOWARDS MERRITT ISLAND AND
STATE ROUTE 5 28...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BELLWOOD...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK...PORT CANAVERAL...KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER...MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE AND PLAYALINDA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO
. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2835 8060 2833 8064 2835 8065
2832 8065 2821 8081 2836 8087 2852 8078
2850 8076 2841 8073 2852 8073 2853 8077
2854 8073 2860 8073 2868 8069 2868 8066
2871 8067 2859 8057 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 221DEG 23KT 2841 8071

$$


KELLY
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7303
Quoting WxTracker15:


Possible debris now.



Link

I love how a supercell can have pitiful rotation, but as soon as I say something it rapidly develops into a tornado.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Rotation is pretty pitiful and dual pol indicates nothing.


Possible debris now.



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Rotation is pitiful and dual pol indicates nothing.
Rotation looks pretty good to me.


Strongest cuplet is over the possible debris ball to.

Edit: Seems to have weakened now. May cycle quickly though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Holy cow. Good thing it is about to go over water.



Debris ball on the end?

No. Rotation is pretty pitiful and dual pol indicates nothing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
More animated convective parameters in Florida from the NWS Melbourne office
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Holy cow. Good thing it is about to go over water.



Debris ball on the end?
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Wow, Cocoa, FL is taking a direct hit if there's something on the ground. Let's hope there isn't as that is a fairly large town of over 17,000 people.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7303
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
241 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

HIZ005>011-150345-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
241 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

.NOW...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER OAHU TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. RAINFALL EXTENDS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST SO BRIEFLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...PERHAPS GREATER AT TIMES...ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CAUSE
PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY WHICH CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.

$$

DEJESUS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Animated helicity in FL.

0-3 km

0-1 km
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
716. Skyepony (Mod)
That tornado in Brevard is about to cross I-95 into Cocoa, Rockledge & Merrit Island..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was in Winter Park for the duration of the thunderstorms this evening in Central FL. I suspect the worst of the weather missed my location to the north, yet we were directly under red cells based on the radar at least twice. It got a bit windy (20-30 mph) as the first of the storms grazed us to the north with heavy rain and a few semi-close lightning strikes. The height of the storms to follow brought some dangerous lightning and torrential rain, but nothing close to severe where I was. Judging by the drive home from Winter Park to Altamonte Springs, nothing severe happened here either. A few twigs and palm fronds are down, that's pretty much it. Boy did we get a bunch of rain, just what we needed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New warning on that storm.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
831 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHARPES...ROCKLEDGE...PORT SAINT
JOHN...PLAYALINDA BEACH...MERRITT ISLAND...PORT CANAVERAL...
COCOA...CAPE CANAVERAL...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT.

* AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROCKLEDGE...COCOA...MERRITT ISLAND...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND
MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE.

THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN. TORNADOES ARE OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WHICH ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.

THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO SEE
. BE SMART AND REACT NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2835 8060 2833 8064 2835 8065
2832 8065 2821 8081 2836 8087 2852 8078
2850 8076 2841 8073 2852 8073 2853 8077
2854 8073 2860 8073 2868 8069 2868 8066
2871 8067 2859 8057 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 221DEG 25KT 2833 8079

$$


KELLY
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7303
Nice hook echo:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7303
Based solely on the GFS output...means this is subject to change. It is anyways considering this is still a few days out.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...

DISCUSSION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVE ACROSS NORTH
CNTRL/NE OK ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ESE ACROSS REGION.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONFIRMS OUN RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWING
APPARENT LEADING EDGE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S/ JUST ABOUT TO INTERCEPT THE BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTH. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY
LLJ AND MDT TO STRONG DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH LATE
TNGT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...CORFIDI
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Live stream of live hogs running loose from an overturned semi-truck in the Minnesota Blizzard.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks subtropical to me, but I could be wrong.


Not even that. The thickness (~temperature) gradient across the center of the storm tells you it's not shallow warm-core, and the center of the storm is under the upper-level jetstream, so it's not vertically stacked with a cold pool either.



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WOW, incredible rainbow on Reed Timmer's live stream!!

Link
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1737
The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Brevard County in Florida...
this includes the cities of... Titusville Airport... Titusville...
Sharpes... port Saint John... lone cabbage Fish Camp... Cocoa...
southeastern Orange County in Florida...
northeastern Osceola County in Florida...

* until 845 PM EDT.

* At 804 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 10 miles
southwest of lone cabbage Fish Camp... moving northeast at 15 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Canaveral Groves

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a strong building on
the lowest floor... in an interior room such as a bathroom or closet.
Keep away from windows. Get under a workbench or other piece of
sturdy furniture. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body.

Evacuate Mobile homes or vehicles for more substantial shelter.


Lat... Lon 2819 8095 2826 8110 2865 8082 2853 8077
2851 8077 2847 8075 2843 8075 2839 8072
2839 8073 2838 8073 2839 8072 2836 8070
time... Mot... loc 0005z 214deg 14kt 2827 8098
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Here's another look at that storm on the 18z GFS, 10 days out:



This isn't the first run to show something in that time period, but this is definitely the most aggressive it's been with it.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7303
washingtonian115

Your new HP laptop might be helped out with a program from an outfit called Quality Freeware. You can get a program so your windows 8 machine can mimic Windows 7 or Vista. Don't know what that might do to the speed of your laptop but may prevent you from breaking in the new machine. Hope this helps. FYI
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Quoting TheGreatHodag:


Is that a 'warmeaster' or something somewhat tropical?

Looks subtropical to me, but I could be wrong.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Late Season Winter Storm Hits Northern Plains

A late season winter storm will bring strong gusty winds and heavy snow and ice to the Northern Plains through Monday. Snow totals for the region are expected to range between 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in central North Dakota
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Quoting ncstorm:
did anyone see the long range GFS? holy sheeze..











Is that a 'warmeaster' or something somewhat tropical?
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Plenty of rain coming for the central-eastern U.S. this week. GFS ensemble mean Week 1 total accumulated precipitation anomaly:

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Quoting washingtonian115:
I got a hp laptop.I have windows 8 but it's so confusing to work with.



lol take it back


and get a window 7 PC on the HP web site


Link


and you be happer
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Not too bad
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.