NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

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The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PattiinFL:


A friend of mine in Palm Bay, Florida (Brevard County) had a tornado go through her neighborhood. She heard the train sound, had the master window blown out and her patio furniture is destroyed, along with various missing items outside. I think the news stations did an excellent job covering the storm. They called it for Palm Bay. Luckily my friend and her family are safe. Still lots of thunder out there.

One window and lawn furniture? typical florida weather.
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Picture of the Year 2012: The Seventh Annual Wikimedia Commons POTY Contest

Requires some clicking to see the full pics. Click on the slide show link, next a link to an individual pic, then the full resolution link.

first place

second place
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Has there been any damage? :(


A friend of mine in Palm Bay, Florida (Brevard County) had a tornado go through her neighborhood. She heard the train sound, had the master window blown out and her patio furniture is destroyed, along with various missing items outside. I think the news stations did an excellent job covering the storm. They called it for Palm Bay. Luckily my friend and her family are safe. Still lots of thunder out there.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


All this debating back and forth about the wording is splitting hairs, IMO.

In a fast developing situation that is happening at night, in Brevard County, FL (population 550,000, not including tourists and part-time residents) and in the most densely populated part of Brevard County presents all sorts of challengers for forecasters and emergency management officials.

This complex of thunderstorms has had continuous lightning, very heavy rains, strong straight-line winds and small hail, in places. Combine all of that together with all of the other factors mentioned above and you can see why some forecasters would rather overdo the warnings than play them down. Putting out the alarmist-sounding wording will assure that media outlets which are tracking the weather will take notice. And they in turn will report the wording to anyone watching television or listening to radio, or reading local online info that is not necessarily weather-related.

The fact is, most of those who live in Florida are not likely to be as tuned-in to the tornado threat possibility in association with heavy thunderstorms as would those in the Plains states or the Upper Midwest, or even areas of the Deep South. What this means is that it takes more to get their attention as they tend to be rather blasé about weather, except for hurricanes perhaps.



I agree good point. I know people who live around here who say, well we don't really get tornadoes in Florida, they get those in plains, we get hurricanes.

I'm talking recently too, even though clear and well visible damage paths have been made by tornadoes in this area in recent years, and even though this county has a history of numerous tornadoes. People think just cause they haven't seen a tornado than they must be really rare.

However, most regular people who live in Oklahoma will say the same, that they haven't see one, but yet people there don't use the same logic thinking they are rare because popular thought makes it well known of the tornado risk in the area. People reason far more based on popular thought that is spread by pop culture themes and word of mouth rather than research or other means of gained knowledge...

What my point is though is just confirming what you said. People just aren't as aware of them here regardless of how often they occur or how often they don't.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7553
A subtropical storm off the SE coast of the USA 10 days from now??? There is a high chance that it won't verify, but thats what the 18z GFS run suggests. Seeing model runs like this sure remind you that hurricane season is getting very close. (47 days, 0 hours, 53 minutes)

 
Anyway there have been tornadic supercells in Florida all evening.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The tornadoes over Cocoa are passing within 1 mile of half my entire family. The one earlier this evening with a defined hook was within several hundred feet of my Aunt's house.

me too...just power out here
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just little spinners, but we sure need the rain
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18z has a TS in the gulf

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look what's back...negative PDO:



And the MDR is warming back after cooling in the past week.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14306
Quoting Jedkins01:


While I think they are being a bit too aggressive with the wording, you are being a little too conservative. These cells that have had warnings are very comparable to many other cells that have produced tornadoes. Now as far as a high end tornado, I agree that wording is too strong. I haven't any indications that these cells have been able to produce EF3 to EF5 tornadoes, using wording like strong, violent tornadoes would tend to sound like they are though.



All this debating back and forth about the wording is splitting hairs, IMO.

In a fast developing situation that is happening at night, in Brevard County, FL (population 550,000, not including tourists and part-time residents) and in the most densely populated part of Brevard County presents all sorts of challengers for forecasters and emergency management officials.

This complex of thunderstorms has had continuous lightning, very heavy rains, strong straight-line winds and small hail, in places. Combine all of that together with all of the other factors mentioned above and you can see why some forecasters would rather overdo the warnings than play them down. Putting out the alarmist-sounding wording will assure that media outlets which are tracking the weather will take notice. And they in turn will report the wording to anyone watching television or listening to radio, or reading local online info that is not necessarily weather-related.

The fact is, most of those who live in Florida are not likely to be as tuned-in to the tornado threat possibility in association with heavy thunderstorms as would those in the Plains states or the Upper Midwest, or even areas of the Deep South. What this means is that it takes more to get their attention as they tend to be rather blasé about weather, except for hurricanes perhaps.
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Look what's back...negative PDO:

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Imelda stands with 85 mph winds... should begin to smoke down from now on
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The tornadoes over Cocoa are passing within 1 mile of half my entire family. The one earlier this evening with a defined hook was within several hundred feet of my Aunt's house.


Has there been any damage? :(
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8627
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hypothehis...

IF we get to complete the list (that is getting 2 more snowstorms i.e Yogi and Zeus)
then do we go to...um... Alpha? (I guess)




i think they will ues the next winter names if they run out
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The tornadoes over Cocoa are passing within 1 mile of half my entire family. The one earlier this evening with a defined hook was within several hundred feet of my Aunt's house.
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Almost 1 1/2 inches if rain in the rain gauge just north of Daytona Beach today. That's the biggest one day total we have had around here in quite a while
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this is another major snowstorm developing by the Rockies, look at the snow forecast

254 PM MDT SUN APR 14 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.


* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
tornado alerts cancelled
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I know that there are different interpretations and opinions about the wording but my opinion is that is was better to do it the way the NWS did with the wording to be in the safe side of things than be sorry later especially in the night hours when is difficult to see what is going on.



I agree, the NWS in Melbourne is probably aware of that its entirely possible for a tornado to be stronger than what it might appear to be on radar, of course, it can also be the other way around, weaker than appearing on radar, but better safe than sorry.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7553
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll make my graphic more specific tomorrow. The significant severe weather should be farther south across Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Ohio still has a good possibility of regular severe weather...large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes.

Alright, thanks for the info, TA!

NWS in Wilmington, OH is monitoring this system, though they haven't said anything about Thursday, they are saying there is a possibility for large hail on Tuesday.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS TO BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know that there are different interpretations and opinions about the wording but my opinion is that is was better to do it the way the NWS did the right thing to be in the safe side of things than be sorry later especially in the night hours when is difficult to see what is going on.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14306
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thanks...


Look at the bottom left of this image...
could be Yogi?


More snow? Heck, might as well postpone spring...
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
They always overreact. TBW is much more conservative ;)


I've seen TBW go a bit too conservative for comfort though, we had a late night thunderstorm a couple years back in July that was a really violent thunderstorm with an unbelievable amount of lightning and extreme rain and wind. It produced wind damage in more than one spot in Pinellas including a confirmed tornado and wind gusts to 70 mph but it never got a tornado warning or a severe thunderstorm warning. I remember a Bay News 9 meteorologist covering the storm kept repeating how he was surprised there wasn't a warning and how he was waiting for there to be one anytime but none were issued.

Of course, that's a very extreme case, I think a late night shift worker didn't have enough sleep or something, it was weird. The NWS never does that normally, they are always on it.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7553
Quoting Ameister12:

Not liking the fact that you put my area under the significant severe weather area for Thursday. Any ideas on what I should expect here in SW Ohio, or is it too far out to really tell.

I'll make my graphic more specific tomorrow. The significant severe weather should be farther south across Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Ohio still has a good possibility of regular severe weather...large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes.
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774. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
MA, the storm is the type of super cell that is capable of producing strong tornadoes. The wording is in good use here.



I agree..it was the size.. had that come down to the ground it could have been a strong tornado. The others looked weaker & smaller.

They are showing penny size hail in Sanford.


US92 by Daytona is shut down again..smoke from the brushfires.
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Sure has the supercell look to it.

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looks good (bad) at 252 hours (10 days from now)


um? what happens here? (264 hours)


long way out I know
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really don't get the wording tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130415T0200Z/
BREVARD-
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIANA...OR NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERRITT ISLAND...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...CAPE
CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES
. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2817 8079 2834 8079
2841 8073 2842 8073 2846 8070 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 264DEG 30KT 2828 8064

$$


MOSES

There are no indications that this storm is even producing a tornado, much less a strong to violent one. Unnecessary alarm IMO.


While I think they are being a bit too aggressive with the wording, you are being a little too conservative. These cells that have had warnings are very comparable to many other cells that have produced tornadoes. Now as far as a high end tornado, I agree that wording is too strong. I haven't any indications that these cells have been able to produce EF3 to EF5 tornadoes, using wording like strong, violent tornadoes would tend to sound like they are though.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7553
Hypothehis...

IF we get to complete the list (that is getting 2 more snowstorms i.e Yogi and Zeus)
then do we go to...um... Alpha? (I guess)

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Everyone talking about tornadoes just needs to chill out! And this video just might help.



thanks...


Look at the bottom left of this image...
could be Yogi?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Based solely on the GFS output...means this is subject to change. It is anyways considering this is still a few days out.


Not liking the fact that you put my area under the significant severe weather area for Thursday. Any ideas on what I should expect here in SW Ohio, or is it too far out to really tell.
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Everyone talking about tornadoes just needs to chill out! And this video just might help.

Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8627
Hey Guys have not been around much over the past few months but just read some interesting news here in Cayman. We may have an operational 250 mile range Doppler Radar for the 2013 hurricane season only taken 5 years since they started the project lol

March 20th 2013


RADAR completion and training

The Cayman Islands is nearing the completion of the installation of its very own weather radar that started in 2008. The radar has been funded jointly by the European Union (Grant of 4.1 million Euros), and the Cayman Islands Government covering extra funding that has been required. The Cayman Islands Airports Authority has overseen the project.
From March 4-15 2013 the final radar training was carried out by a representative from SELEX Cooperation.
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North Dakota is getting smoked with this storm.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013 /532 PM MDT SUN APR 14 2013/

...INTERSTATE 94 CLOSED FOR BOTH EASTBOUND AND WESTBOUND LANES
FROM FARGO TO THE MONTANA BORDER...

...INTERSTATE 29 CLOSED FOR BOTH EASTBOUND AND WESTBOUND LANES
FROM FARGO TO GRAND FORKS...

THE NORTH DAKOTA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION...ALONG WITH THE
NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY PATROL...HAVE CLOSED INTERSTATE 94 IN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM FARGO TO THE MONTANA BORDER. INTERSTATE 29 HAS ALSO
BEEN CLOSED FROM FARGO TO GRAND FORKS.

HEAVY SNOW...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES...AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF
SNOW MAKING THE ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE.


I-29 should be Northbound and Southbound not East and West
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
These cells may try to produce something later.


WUUS52 KMLB 150145
SVRMLB
FLC061-097-150245-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0011.130415T0145Z-130415T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT.

* AT 941 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
YEEHAW JUNCTION...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KENANSVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
FLORIDA TURNPIKE NEAR KENANSVILLE AND BLUE CYPRESS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO
MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8076 2764 8102 2780 8105 2785 8090
2785 8087 2782 8087 2782 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 253DEG 23KT 2778 8090

$$


KELLY




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These cells may try to produce something later.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really don't get the wording tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130415T0200Z/
BREVARD-
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIANA...OR NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERRITT ISLAND...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...CAPE
CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES
. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2817 8079 2834 8079
2841 8073 2842 8073 2846 8070 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 264DEG 30KT 2828 8064

$$


MOSES

There are no indications that this storm is even producing a tornado, much less a strong to violent one. Unnecessary alarm IMO.
They always overreact. TBW is much more conservative ;)
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Quoting wxchaser97:

March 15th, 2012. Dexter, MI(40ish miles away from me) got hit by an EF3 tornado. Columbiaville, MI got an EF2 and Ida Township, MI got an EF0. That day is when I joined WU so I remember it well. There wasn't supposed to be tornadoes that day, but mother nature had different ideas.

I still think that storm won't produce a strong to violent tornado.
Yeah, fell apart. Was just making a point that anything could happen. Time flies that seemed just like yesterday.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If I remember correctly other factors contribute. There was a day last year that was not even highlighted for severe weather that had several tornadoes of EF2 and 1 EF3 if I remember. Was off the Great Lakes. Think it was near Detroit.

March 15th, 2012. Dexter, MI(40ish miles away from me) got hit by an EF3 tornado. Columbiaville, MI got an EF2 and Ida Township, MI got an EF0. That day is when I joined WU so I remember it well. There wasn't supposed to be tornadoes that day, but mother nature had different ideas.

I still think that storm won't produce a strong to violent tornado.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If I remember correctly other factors contribute. There was a day last year that was not even highlighted for severe weather that had several tornadoes of EF2 and 1 EF3 if I remember. Was off the Great Lakes. Think it was near Detroit.

You're speaking of the Dexter, MI EF3. That tornado was spawned within a small area of confluence. The situation was an exception, not the rule. Parameters in Florida are not favorable for strong tornadoes, much less violent ones.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, that's not necessary at all.

If I remember correctly other factors contribute. There was a day last year that was not even highlighted for severe weather that had several tornadoes of EF2 and 1 EF3 if I remember. Was off the Great Lakes. Think it was near Detroit.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really don't get the wording tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130415T0200Z/
BREVARD-
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIANA...OR NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERRITT ISLAND...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...CAPE
CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES
. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2817 8079 2834 8079
2841 8073 2842 8073 2846 8070 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 264DEG 30KT 2828 8064

$$


MOSES

There are no indications that this storm is even producing a tornado, much less a strong to violent one. Unnecessary alarm IMO.

Yeah, that's not necessary at all.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MA, the storm is the type of super cell that is capable of producing strong tornadoes. The wording is in good use here.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I really don't get the wording tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130415T0200Z/
BREVARD-
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIANA...OR NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERRITT ISLAND...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...CAPE
CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES
. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2817 8079 2834 8079
2841 8073 2842 8073 2846 8070 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 264DEG 30KT 2828 8064

$$


MOSES

There are no indications that this storm is even producing a tornado, much less a strong to violent one. Unnecessary alarm IMO.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
Seems like the proximity to the sea tends to kill these storms quickly. Good thing they did not start producing tornadoes more inland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Getting back into business, some tornado warnings over Cape Canaveral I see..hmmm
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CAPE CANAVERAL VICINITY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 150113Z - 150215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LINGERING THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL SUPERCELL ROTATION WILL
SEEMINGLY PERSIST BEYOND THE 02Z/15 TORNADO WATCH EXPIRATION. A
LOCAL EXTENSION-IN-TIME FOR ANOTHER HOUR MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
CESSATION OF DMGG WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CYCLING
SUPERCELLS EXHIBITING LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR THE CAPE
CANAVERAL VICINITY. MOIST LOW LEVELS CO-LOCATED WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE FEATURING 40 KT 1 KM AGL FLOW HAS SERVED TO
ENLARGE THE HODOGRAPH /300 0-1 KM M2/S2 SRH/ AND MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MESOCYCLONE ROTATION DURING THE NEAR TERM. ASIDE FROM DMGG
WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL INVOF CAPE CANAVERAL...THE REMAINING NRN HALF
OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO N FL HAS OR WILL BE APPRECIABLY
OVERTURNED...IN ADDITION TO THE LOSS OF DIURNALLY-GENERATED
INSTABILITY. THUS...THE TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS IN THE AREA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WHERE A
LOCAL WW EXTENSION-IN-TIME COULD ADDRESS A LINGERING SEVERE STORM
THREAT BEYOND 02Z.

..SMITH.. 04/15/2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Rotation doesn't look as strong in the last couple frames. Conditions clearly aren't favorable for long tracking, sustained tornadoes, just possible brief ones like these two storms may have produced.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm south of the one headed toward Rockledge. Can see a shelf in front of the near constant lightning. Weather is crazy out there..
You seem to be close enough where you may see a tornado if it is not rain wrapped.

Edit: Seems to have fallen apart a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's good the tornado doesn't have self-esteem problems.

A confident tornado is a good tornado.


NO, Cody, why you steal and better word my thoughts?

This is one weird night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
317 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

HIC003-150415-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0069.130415T0117Z-130415T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
317 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 615 PM HST

* AT 306 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN MOVING ON TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF OAHU NEAR PEARL HARBOR. SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES INDICATE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAIKELE...KUNIA...WHITMORE VILLAGE...WAIPIO...WAIPAHU...WAIMALU...
WAHIAWA...SCHOFIELD BARRACKS...PEARL CITY...NANAKULI...MILILANI
TOWN AND AIEA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 615 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2137 15818 2161 15799 2146 15788 2131 15775
2124 15773 2127 15812

$$

DEJESUS

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.