NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

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The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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whew next saturday...
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I think the drought is about over in many places across E C FL. Melbourne picked up 3.79", Sanford 2.29", Daytona Beach 1.03", Orlando Executive Airport 1.40", Orlando International .79.
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846. MahFL
Very muggy in NE FL, 84 % humidity.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Good point, I remember last year with tropical storm Debby there was a tornado warning with a rotating cell that moved right over us and I saw people running around outside. I told them there was a tornado warning and they didn't think that happened in tropical storms.

If someone hears of a tornado warning in Oklahoma they are running for cover. Some of it also is attitude, here in Florida people sometimes are a little too laid back about everything as much as relaxation is good, hence the bad driving too ;) lol

People in the plains are used to a bit of a harsher way of life so there may be overall a healthier respect for danger in such regions as apposed to here. The Tampa Bay area seems full of people who say they wouldn't leave regardless of how powerful of a hurricane arrived. Now, I doubt that to some extent, personally I think many would start to panic and want to leave if they saw a hurricane like Katrina on satellite barreling toward Tampa Bay. I feel that once people feel the fear it will be too late do too our natural tendency to procrastinate unless you already had a plan in the first place.


Also regarding tornadoes and population. Very true, that is especially true for South Florida, if you look at tornado reports in south Florida, there are large clusters of them near the developed areas of Miami through west palm and then Punta Gorda through Naples on the other coast, with oddly very few over the rest of South Florida. Well, maybe its not so odd given people just don't live across the rest of the millions of acres of mainland.

There are even some other important things to consider regarding tornado reports in Florida, population in Florida has only been high for the last 20 to 30 years. Once you head before the 70's and 80's, Florida is no mans land practically. The major areas now were pretty small towns overall even 50 years ago.

Also most tornadoes in Florida unlike their Midwest counterparts are almost always rain wrapped in heavy precip, its rare to NOT have an HP supercell here. Also, most areas are dominated by thick woods that give poor distance visibility.

I'm not saying that changes the threat of tornadoes here drastically, but what you and I have mentioned does matter and should be taken into account. I think the largely uninhabited areas combined with the nature of tornadoes being rain wrapped here so often are important factors.
Floridians are extremely complacent when it comes to weather, especially Tampans with hurricanes..

We have had large hurricanes barreling straight towards us that were forecast to hit and only a handful of the people in evac zones decided to go.
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next Friday.....
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this system thurs will be OUR weather on the weekend again..
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hopefully I'll get a shower out of this later today.....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On this date two years ago, residents across Mississippi and Alabama were preparing for one of the largest tornado outbreaks ever to hit their state, part of a 3-day tornado onslaught from Oklahoma to North Carolina.

The strongest on yesterday's date, April 14, was an EF3 near Tushka, Oklahoma. It was a large wedge tornado and remained on the ground for 17 miles. It killed 2 and destroyed homes/shifted them off their foundations.

Many strong tornadoes touched down on this date, April 15, 2011. An EF3 hit the city of Clinton, Mississippi, another hit near Scooba, another near Leakesville (4 deaths); an EF3 moved almost directly through the city of Tuscaloosa, another hit Myrtlewood (1 death), and yet another hit Pine Level (3 deaths). In total, there were 146 reports of tornadoes. This day was only a moderate risk.

This day last year was also a moderate risk following the big outbreak on the 14th.



It ended up as a bust, however.

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Some of the heaviest rain I have ever seen yesterday. I picked up 2.60" of rain and also had hail accumulate in my yard over in Wekiva Springs with frequent lightning for many hours yesterday evening.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On this date two years ago, residents across Mississippi and Alabama were preparing for one of the largest tornado outbreaks ever to hit their state, part of a 3-day tornado onslaught from Oklahoma to North Carolina.

The strongest on yesterday's date, April 14, was an EF3 near Tushka, Oklahoma. It was a large wedge tornado and remained on the ground for 17 miles. It killed 2 and destroyed homes/shifted them off their foundations.

Many strong tornadoes touched down on this date, April 15, 2011. An EF3 hit the city of Clinton, Mississippi, another hit near Scooba, another near Leakesville (4 deaths); an EF3 moved almost directly through the city of Tuscaloosa, AL, another hit Myrtlewood (1 death), and yet another hit Pine Level (3 deaths). In total, there were 146 reports of tornadoes. This day was only a moderate risk.


Yeah i remember that...
We had a camping trip in north GA with a couple hundred kids but everybody got sent home because of baseball sized hail and winds that messed all all the tents.
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On this date two years ago, residents across Mississippi and Alabama were preparing for one of the largest tornado outbreaks ever to hit their state, part of a 3-day tornado onslaught from Oklahoma to North Carolina.

The strongest on yesterday's date, April 14, was an EF3 near Tushka, Oklahoma. It was a large wedge tornado and remained on the ground for 17 miles. It killed 2 and destroyed homes/shifted them off their foundations.

Many strong tornadoes touched down on this date, April 15, 2011. An EF3 hit the city of Clinton, Mississippi, another hit near Scooba, another near Leakesville (4 deaths); an EF3 moved almost directly through the city of Tuscaloosa, AL, another hit Myrtlewood (1 death), and yet another hit Pine Level (3 deaths). In total, there were 146 reports of tornadoes. This day was only a moderate risk.
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There's good potential for strong to violent tornadoes in the Moderate risk area on Wednesday. The same can be said for Thursday, though if we see one, it will probably just that...one from a discrete supercell. The main threat Thursday will be widespread damaging winds along a squall line.
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Time to start a new week. Everyone have a great Monday. Aussie, have a great Tuesday.
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SPC has raised a “moderate risk” of severe weather Wednesday for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, where a significant tornado outbreak is likely with many severe weather parameters falling into place.


It's a shame there is no instability in the SE usa....

the MLJ and LLJ will be so strong.

Looks like mainly a squall line with a possible QLCS spinup.
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and:

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JUNE DUE TO WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY CONVECTIVE AIR MASS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT POSITIVE BUOYANCY IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUNDING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE SMALL...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
OF COURSE...THIS ASSUMES THAT THE
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HEATING. THE
SET-UP FOR WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE MAY
BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER...AND THIS MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.


shreveport:
STG STORM SYSTEM WILL GET RAMPED UP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER IN DAY WED. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH
AN OVERALL SLOWER TREND WITH ONSET OF STORMS THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAVY
RAIN...STG LOW LVL SHEAR...AND STEEP INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR ALL FORMS OF SVR WX LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTN ACROSS AREA.

jackson:

...A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
CWA. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE
AT THIS POINT.

and ga

MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN STORE FOR WEEKS END WITH CONTINUED
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WRT TIMING FOR THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE FRONT MOVING INTO NW GEORGIA FRIDAY
AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL FOR THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
IMPRESSIVE AS 80KT 850 JET DECREASES TO A STILL SUBSTANTIAL 60 TO
65 KTS FOR THE NW ZONES. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT
WILL NOT HIT TOO HARD SINCE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
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AL:

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE SQUALL
LINE WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM
FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY.
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR AN EVENT THAT IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY.
THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A QLCS WITH EMBEDDED
TORNADOES IN THE LINE. WITH THE LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT DEEP FORCING ALONG SQUALL LINE WILL OFFSET LACK
OF INSTABILITY
. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
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mephis:

THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -4C AND -6C...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS A POWERFUL CYCLONICALLY
CURVED 100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE
STRONG APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...HELPING
TO MAINTAIN SOME BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS OVERSPREADS
THE FORECAST AREA. A SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD
EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE
STORMS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE.
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Wow! A moderate risk 3 days out! Could we see our first high risk day of the year on Wednesday?
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Good morning everyone!

Good evening Aussie!

I need two hours without rain this morning... I have a protest rally scheduled at Senator Negrons office this morning... may the dryness be with me.. for awhile.. :)
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The SPC has also outlined a severe weather threat area further east for Thursday:



This day will likely feature a long squall line capable of producing potentially widespread damaging wind.
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

The diurnal heating will form afternoon showers in the interior of PR in the next couple of days. We will be watching what unfolds by the end of the week with a trough that may bring deep moisture. Fingers crossed on that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST MON APR 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN TUE AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GENERATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY AND GENERATE A MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GET CLOSER TO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS MORE ORGANIZED AND WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL TO INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 15/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PR THROUGH ABOUT 15/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO ESE AT
10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO FL050.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SEAS
WITH WAVES FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS SWELL
EVENT WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 4 FEET AND 16 SECONDS AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 74 / 10 20 20 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 10 30 30 40
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Had a great weekend for gardening, though the rain Saturday night, while not much, meant not being able to paint the deck. A warm 64 degrees with a high in the mid-eighties later on.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: sausage cheese and pancake sandwiches, poached eggs and bacon, yogurt and fresh orange juice. Enjoy!
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Good morning. The SPC has issued a moderate risk for Wednesday, that is very rare for a Day 3 outlook, generally used only when there is potential for a severe weather outbreak on the day in question. Anywhere from Norman and Oklahoma City all the way up to Joplin are under the gun for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging wind.

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7-day for Tampa Bay area.....................
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Good Morning folks!.........................
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Darkening Skies, Ancona, Italy...from facebook...

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Here in the Bismarck, ND area it's gonna take us a few days to dig out. Here's an update from NWS:

...ALL KINDS OF SNOWFALL RECORDS SMASHED AT BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA ON APRIL 14 2013...

AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BISMARCK...RECORDS GO BACK TO 1875.

SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR APRIL 14 2013 WAS 17.3 INCHES. THE STORM TOTAL SO FAR IS 17.4 INCHES.

A TENTH OF AN INCH FELL ON APRIL 13. THE 17.3 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL IN BISMARCK SUNDAY

BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...APRIL 14...OF 5.0 INCHES FROM 1986.

THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR ANY DAY IN APRIL IS BROKEN. IT WAS 15.2 INCHES ON APRIL 5 1997.

THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF APRIL WAS 18.7 INCHES IN 1984.

IT IS NOW...21.2 INCHES SO FAR THIS APRIL...2013.

THE RECORD FOR THE MOST SNOW ON ANY DAY OF THE YEAR IN BISMARCK WAS 15.5 INCHES ON MARCH 3...1966.

IT IS NOW...17.3 INCHES.

'til later,
Maddy
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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL IL...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY...

...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z FROM
SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS THE NAM
MAY BE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTING AN EARLY FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY1-2 TIME FRAME BEFORE
SLOWLY RETREATING INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BODY OF OK
WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD 50KT+ LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OK/KS.
SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS KS INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NWRN MO. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS/NWRN OK WHICH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...SSWWD INTO WEST TX. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM OK NEWD INTO MO. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SRN MOST STALLED BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK OF MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL
FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS A SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL ENCOURAGE
A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
PROPAGATE SEWD. BY EARLY THURSDAY AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED FROM NRN IL...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NWRN TX.

..DARROW.. 04/15/2013
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I extracted this information from my weather station after a cold front passed through Sunday Evening (EDT): I'm pretty amazed that the dew point can change almost instantaneously when the gust front hits,

Dew Point Depression at Time of Gust Front

20:53:39 - 71.6°F (t)

20:53:48 - 68.9°F (-1.5°F, ∆t = 9s)

20:54:21 - 67.6°F (-3.0°F, ∆t = 42s)

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Quoting Tazmanian:
18z has a TS in the gulf



GFS LOL
ECMWF has nothing. I look at the ECMWF before the GFS. We all know the ECMWF does better.
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Looks like the NAO will become positive but eventually go back to negative phase.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Gnite everyone...
great blogging week we had...

have a great upcoming work week..!


Night
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Gnite everyone...
great blogging weekend we had...

have a great upcoming work week..!
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Widespread showers are still affecting the island of Oahu but is forecast to diminish overnight.

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The eye has become obscured on satellite imagery, but it is still evident on microwave imagery.



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Jedkins01

Living in both Iowa and Eastern Texas, I'd say that visibility has to do a lot with it. Even talking to fellow Texans about tornadoes, they will mention some experience they had in a more western part of the state with a longer view or less hills. The part of Iowa I lived in was very flat and mostly fields. You could see storms for miles away. Even if a storm didn't impact you, a supercell was visible for miles. Where I live in Texas now, if there was an isolated supercell tornado, I wouldn't know about it until my phone alerted me of the tornado warning, or I heard about it later. Just so many trees blocking the horizon.
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Oahu has received higher amount of rainfall today than compared to yesterday. The highest amount over the past 24 hours was 1.44 inches of rain in Schofield South as of 5:45 pm HST. Drier weather is expected for the Hawaiian Islands in the next couple of days as the cold front weakens.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Absolutely correct, Jedkins.

I can picture some residents of Brevard County blithely playing video games, earlier this evening and while the thunder was crashing all around their house and the wind was howling outside, spraying rain against the windows...

"Tornado? What tornado? This is just a thunderstorm. We get those all the time..."

While it may be true that some people in Oklahoma may consider the tornado risk from the perspective of their own lack of personal experience, just as here in Florida, they surely are more tuned in to the overall risk. I have a good friend in Wichita, Kansas who has run to the basement on more than a few occasions when there was a tornado warning for that county. I find it very hard to picture most people in Florida running into a closet or bathtub when a tornado warning is issued for their county. It is simply a different mindset.

Someone earlier said that the tornado parameters are not very impressive in Florida, and was implying that this alone was a good reason for not ramping up the threat wording at the local NWS office. That is a generalization. Normally, Florida tornadoes are not that impressive compared with those in other parts of the country but that is not always the case. In the last fifteen years, at least 71 persons have been killed by tornadoes in Florida and most of those were EF-2s and EF-3s. And as I have pointed out before on this blog, there have been at least two EF-4 twisters confirmed in Florida during the past 50 years or so.

Bearing in mind that much of the state is still made up of large wilderness tracts that are not common in many other areas of the Eastern US, it is just possible that more severe funnels have touched down in various areas of the state but went undetected. Even so, in general terms, Florida is densely populated but the population patterns are unusually concentrated in specific areas, not spread around the state evenly. This means that when a tornado threat exists in these areas, the risk factor is elevated, in spite of widespread public ignorance of this fact.



Good point, I remember last year with tropical storm Debby there was a tornado warning with a rotating cell that moved right over us and I saw people running around outside. I told them there was a tornado warning and they didn't think that happened in tropical storms.

If someone hears of a tornado warning in Oklahoma they are running for cover. Some of it also is attitude, here in Florida people sometimes are a little too laid back about everything as much as relaxation is good, hence the bad driving too ;) lol

People in the plains are used to a bit of a harsher way of life so there may be overall a healthier respect for danger in such regions as apposed to here. The Tampa Bay area seems full of people who say they wouldn't leave regardless of how powerful of a hurricane arrived. Now, I doubt that to some extent, personally I think many would start to panic and want to leave if they saw a hurricane like Katrina on satellite barreling toward Tampa Bay. I feel that once people feel the fear it will be too late do too our natural tendency to procrastinate unless you already had a plan in the first place.


Also regarding tornadoes and population. Very true, that is especially true for South Florida, if you look at tornado reports in south Florida, there are large clusters of them near the developed areas of Miami through west palm and then Punta Gorda through Naples on the other coast, with oddly very few over the rest of South Florida. Well, maybe its not so odd given people just don't live across the rest of the millions of acres of mainland.

There are even some other important things to consider regarding tornado reports in Florida, population in Florida has only been high for the last 20 to 30 years. Once you head before the 70's and 80's, Florida is no mans land practically. The major areas now were pretty small towns overall even 50 years ago.

Also most tornadoes in Florida unlike their Midwest counterparts are almost always rain wrapped in heavy precip, its rare to NOT have an HP supercell here. Also, most areas are dominated by thick woods that give poor distance visibility.

I'm not saying that changes the threat of tornadoes here drastically, but what you and I have mentioned does matter and should be taken into account. I think the largely uninhabited areas combined with the nature of tornadoes being rain wrapped here so often are important factors.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I agree good point. I know people who live around here who say, well we don't really get tornadoes in Florida, they get those in plains, we get hurricanes.

I'm talking recently too, even though clear and well visible damage paths have been made by tornadoes in this area in recent years, and even though this county has a history of numerous tornadoes. People think just cause they haven't seen a tornado than they must be really rare.

However, most regular people who live in Oklahoma will say the same, that they haven't see one, but yet people there don't use the same logic thinking they are rare because popular thought makes it well known of the tornado risk in the area. People reason far more based on popular thought that is spread by pop culture themes and word of mouth rather than research or other means of gained knowledge...

What my point is though is just confirming what you said. People just aren't as aware of them here regardless of how often they occur or how often they don't.


Absolutely correct, Jedkins.

I can picture some residents of Brevard County blithely playing video games, earlier this evening and while the thunder was crashing all around their house and the wind was howling outside, spraying rain against the windows...

"Tornado? What tornado? This is just a thunderstorm. We get those all the time..."

While it may be true that some people in Oklahoma may consider the tornado risk from the perspective of their own lack of personal experience, just as here in Florida, they surely are more tuned in to the overall risk. I have a good friend in Wichita, Kansas who has run to the basement on more than a few occasions when there was a tornado warning for that county. I find it very hard to picture most people in Florida running into a closet or bathtub when a tornado warning is issued for their county. It is simply a different mindset.

Someone earlier said that the tornado parameters are not very impressive in Florida, and was implying that this alone was a good reason for not ramping up the threat wording at the local NWS office. That is a generalization. Normally, Florida tornadoes are not that impressive compared with those in other parts of the country but that is not always the case. In the last fifteen years, at least 71 persons have been killed by tornadoes in Florida and most of those were EF-2s and EF-3s. And as I have pointed out before on this blog, there have been at least two EF-4 twisters confirmed in Florida during the past 50 years or so.

Bearing in mind that much of the state is still made up of large wilderness tracts that are not common in many other areas of the Eastern US, it is just possible that more severe funnels have touched down in various areas of the state but went undetected. Even so, in general terms, Florida is densely populated but the population patterns are unusually concentrated in specific areas, not spread around the state evenly. This means that when a tornado threat exists in these areas, the risk factor is elevated, in spite of widespread public ignorance of this fact.
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Bismarck, ND still under winter alerts

TORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...AND AROUND BOWMAN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
FROM WATFORD CITY...THROUGH HAZEN...MANDAN...AND BISMARCK...TO
FORT YATES...LINTON...AND ASHLEY...TO ELLENDALE...WHERE TOTALS
WILL BE A CRIPPLING 15 TO 19 INCHES.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
800. beell
Quoting geepy86:

One window and lawn furniture? typical florida weather.










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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting PattiinFL:


A friend of mine in Palm Bay, Florida (Brevard County) had a tornado go through her neighborhood. She heard the train sound, had the master window blown out and her patio furniture is destroyed, along with various missing items outside. I think the news stations did an excellent job covering the storm. They called it for Palm Bay. Luckily my friend and her family are safe. Still lots of thunder out there.

One window and lawn furniture? typical florida weather.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.