NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

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The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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For those who live in Texas and may want to go to a NHC workshop,you have the opportunity to attend for free the Houston/Galveston Workshop on June 1rst from 10 AM CDT to 3 PM CDT
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14250
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Thanks Dr. Masters. It's a good reminder that single events can't be definitively ascribed to global warming. It's more valid to look at trends.


I think single events are assigned to HAARP and the effects of what man can do!
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Good Morning Folks!..well yesterday while it WAS very windy and overcast all day...I didnt get enough rain to wet a sidewalk a lil...just a very light sprinkle and poof its gone lol...oh well..it wasnt our storm anyway huh.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
516 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-132115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
516 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...STEMMING FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE MOST FAVORED REGION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...MOSTLY OVER THE NATURE COAST.
THE REST OF THE WEEK...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

FLEMING
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning gang!
G'evening Aussie.. interesting paint jobs down under....

I like ours better...


But can you see it when it's 10,000ft above you...
Btw, is the other side of that plane her rear face, I prefer that side. It don't talk back. LOL
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Good morning. The SPC continues to forecast severe weather across the South next week:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


few minutes with several paint buckets... lol

Those are aboriginal painting. Not done in a few minutes. It's an art that is passed down through the ages. There is a story behind each painting.
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today and Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST SAT APR 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WIND ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE CIMMS/MIMIC
PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.65 INCHES WITH
THIS WEAK TROUGH. THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PR/USVI TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WITH THIS FEATURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN THE LOCAL REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PR WHERE THE MODERATE CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PR. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO STREAMERS DOWNWIND OF THE SMALL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 13/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN FROM 13/18Z THROUGH 13/22Z OVER
TJMZ...IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WHILE SEAS REMAIN AT 6 FT OR LESS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 75 / 20 40 40 20
STT 86 76 86 78 / 20 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14250
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Morning gang!
G'evening Aussie.. interesting paint jobs down under....

I like ours better...

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Heavy rain now approaching the Kauai County of Hawaii.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:

If any Texas coastal location is statistically overdue for a significant hurricane, it's the Corpus Christi area. When is the last time the central Texas coast had a decent hurricane?


ummmmmm? Not sure. But they've had some whoppers. Don't know if this season will turn out any differently than the last few for Texas. All I keep hearing is drought. Less rain than 2012 reeks of ridge to me. But as you say, there's no way to tell tracks ahead of time. Just wait and see and prepare anyway. As usual. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yep, we were under-due for a tropical storm or hurricane around here but if this season passes Texas by completely it will tie the longest spell without a landfall in Texas of 5 years. I have when that happened written down somewhere I swear. :) But our neighbor just across the border who posts her delicious breakfast menus in the morning said we weren't to get another hurricane here for 10 years. Sounds good to me. But Some of this state sure could use a good wet depression or tropical storm. And Don doesn't count! :p

I agree with this too lol. We are due for one. Havent had once since Ike 2008 and thats right Don doesn't count!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


But our neighbor just across the border who posts her delicious breakfast menus in the morning said we weren't to get another hurricane here for 10 years.
If any Texas coastal location is statistically overdue for a significant hurricane, it's the Corpus Christi area. When is the last time the central Texas coast had a decent hurricane?
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


You got me. I don't know enough about how to interpret the conditions needed for an active, average, or inactive season.


You get a young groundhog, and teach it how to throw dice.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

And I agree 100%. I have also heard for the past 2 years that the entire Gulf coast especially TX/LA had a super high risk for a strike and it didn't happen. I live in that area and I always look out for things like that.


Yep, we were under-due for a tropical storm or hurricane around here but if this season passes Texas by completely it will tie the longest spell without a landfall in Texas of 5 years. I have when that happened written down somewhere I swear. :) But our neighbor just across the border who posts her delicious breakfast menus in the morning said we weren't to get another hurricane here for 10 years. Sounds good to me. But Some of this state sure could use a good wet depression or tropical storm. And Don doesn't count! :p
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
Link
Take a look at this forecast!


Way far out as someone else just pointed out but yes Florida is way overdue for a hurricane strike.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Do you realize how far out this is? We still have difficulty identifying and forecasting 5-day forecasts, much less four months from now during peak season.

I think there is also a lot of confusion (and this isn't really pointed at you, just anyone who advocates it in general) amongst people that more numbers correlate toward increased US landfalls, and that's not always the case. While statistically more storms would theoretically tend to increase the amount of observed US landfalls, there have been several active seasons with comparatively few US landfalls (1984, 1990, 2010), just as there have been inactive seasons with a relative abundance of landfalls (1983, 1994, 2002).

How many times since 2010 have we heard "the US is in for it this year", only to have four straight years with recurvature (2009-2012) due to a persistent east coast trough? I'm of the opinion that while analog years can show us the most likely range of observed tropical cyclones, their usefulness as track predictors are extremely lacking, and are not as viable as some forecasters give them credit for. I haven't found any real evidence to suggest that sea surface temperature patterns in the winter and spring will stay consistent or follow a predictable trend into the summer and ultimately allow us to get an idea of the mean storm tracks for a year. Water temperature anomalies are important, yes, because tropical cyclones will tend to form where the largest [positive] sea surface temperature anomalies are, which will logically influence their track proclivities, but only to an extent. The synoptic steering/jet stream pattern over the United States is also exponentially important, and is extremely fickle at any given point in the year. To think we can take a couple of analog years and use them as premises for the most likely conglomeration of storm tracks in a given year is extremely foolish. This isn't to say we shouldn't keep trying, just that we aren't there yet, so it's best to take all such predictions like the one from Crown Weather Services with an enormous grain of salt.

And I agree 100%. I have also heard for the past 2 years that the entire Gulf coast especially TX/LA had a super high risk for a strike and it didn't happen. I live in that area and I always look out for things like that.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
Link
Take a look at this forecast!


Do you realize how far out this is? We still have difficulty identifying and forecasting 5-day events, much less four months from now during peak season.

I think there is also a lot of confusion (and this isn't really pointed at you, just anyone who advocates it in general) amongst people that more numbers correlate toward increased US landfalls, and that's not always the case. While statistically more storms would theoretically tend to increase the amount of observed US landfalls, there have been several active seasons with comparatively few US landfalls (1984, 1990, 2010), just as there have been inactive seasons with a relative abundance of landfalls (1983, 1994, 2002).

How many times since 2010 have we heard "the US is in for it this year", only to have four straight years with recurvature (2009-2012) due to a persistent east coast trough? I'm of the opinion that while analog years can show us the most likely range of observed tropical cyclones, their usefulness as track predictors are extremely lacking, and are not as viable as some forecasters give them credit for. I haven't found any real evidence to suggest that sea surface temperature patterns in the winter and spring will stay consistent or follow a predictable trend into the summer and ultimately allow us to get an idea of the mean storm tracks for a year. Water temperature anomalies are important, yes, because tropical cyclones will tend to form where the largest [positive] sea surface temperature anomalies are, which will logically influence their track proclivities, but only to an extent. The synoptic steering/jet stream pattern over the United States is also exponentially important, and is extremely fickle at any given point in the year. To think we can take a couple of analog years and use them as premises for the most likely conglomeration of storm tracks in a given year is extremely foolish. This isn't to say we shouldn't keep trying, just that we aren't there yet, so it's best to take all such predictions like the one from Crown Weather Services with an enormous grain of salt.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


The 80 % for the Louisiana through western FL panhandle will be interesting to see if it plays out. I'm just wondering if this is tropical cyclones, named storms, or hurricanes though.

Probably all of those. Also from about... freeport TX to southwest LA...be interesting to see if that plays out. The Caribbean is in for it as well.
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SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
PHZ110-112-130700-
/O.NEW.PHFO.MA.W.0009.130413T0554Z-130413T0700Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
754 PM HST FRI APR 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS

* UNTIL 900 PM HST

* AT 753 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
34 KNOTS OR GREATER 37 NM WEST OF LEHUA ROCK...OR ABOUT 78 NM WEST
OF LIHUE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN SMALL BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER...STAY BELOW DECK. IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2241 16046 2212 16014 2181 16076 2200 16089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 238DEG 16KT 2196 16075

$$

HOUSTON
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Link
Take a look at this forecast!


The 80+% for the Louisiana through western FL panhandle will be interesting to see if it plays out. I'm just wondering if this is tropical cyclones, named storms, or hurricanes though.
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Link
Take a look at this forecast!
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Was reading a Wiki article on the 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane. Had a storm of that intensity had struck the same location in Southeast Florida today, especially due to the immense rise in population since then, the results may be horrific. Think about 11-foot storm surges pounding at one of the most densely populated and tourist packed sections of the US (SE Florida)--unless a lot of time is given to prepare, we could be talking about hundreds of deaths. Quite interesting how things change so drastically and how population booms can make an impact on a disaster's effects on an area.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I like to remain scientific... ;)


You got me. I don't know enough about how to interpret the conditions needed for an active, average, or inactive season.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
Quoting AussieStorm:


How much time to do these??





Probably not much time. I'm sure it's this stuff. Link

It's just printed on vinyl with a huge printer, then shaped and stuck down to the surface of the vehicle/plane with hot air.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
No particular reason Kori. Just going against the wunderground mainstream.

For example one guy on here had a poll for when the first storm would be named and the latest option was June 16-30. When the average date of the first named storm is in July.



Well I like to remain scientific... ;)
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No particular reason Kori. Just going against the wunderground mainstream.

For example one guy on here had a poll for when the first storm would be named and the latest option was June 16-30. When the average date of the first named storm is in July.

Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I say slow start and fairly active through the middle and the end of the season.


Just curious, what makes you say a slow start?
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I say slow start and fairly active through the middle and the end of the season.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
Quoting lobdelse81:
I guess after several meteorological organizations gave predictions of an active 2013 hurricane season coming up it is time for a poll just for fun to see what you guys think of the type of active hurricane season we will have.  So the 2013 hurricane season will be active with.....
a) a slow start at the beginning of the season, but a sharp increase during the peak months and an active finish
b) active throughout the whole six month span and maybe even spilling into December
c) an active start, staying active through the peak months, but then an abrupt inactive finish towards the end

I go with "A", similar to the 2004 season, but maybe slightly more active towards the peak months.  I say we may have 20-11-5, when all is set and done :-)


B
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting lobdelse81:
I guess after several meteorological organizations gave predictions of an active 2013 hurricane season coming up it is time for a poll just for fun to see what you guys think of the type of active hurricane season we will have.  So the 2013 hurricane season will be active with.....
a) a slow start at the beginning of the season, but a sharp increase during the peak months and an active finish
b) active throughout the whole six month span and maybe even spilling into December
c) an active start, staying active through the peak months, but then an abrupt inactive finish towards the end

I go with "A", similar to the 2004 season, but maybe slightly more active towards the peak months.  I say we may have 20-11-5, when all is set and done :-)


B
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Quoting seminolesfan:


Gotta love them differential equations. :)

Yeah, I am usually all over the SPC Meso page. Tons of information on one page and easily flipped through. Then I pull soundings from the areas I'm looking to visualize through the 3rd dimension to get a different perspective.


Yeah I took differential equations last semester, it definitely is not mathematics for the feint of heart! lol
Very tedious and takes a lot of time, patience and thought. However once you get past those obstacles it was actually fairly enjoyable because differential equations are so important and applicable to the physical sciences including meteorology. I know I'm going to need my experience with them for when I take atmospheric dynamics.

And yes both types of analysis are useful just for different purposes, the SPC page is great for looking at regional analysis, however the sounding is better for analyzing the atmospheric column, its one weakness is that its only for a given location, but that really isn't a weakness because its designed for a given location.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7440
I guess after several meteorological organizations gave predictions of an active 2013 hurricane season coming up it is time for a poll just for fun to see what you guys think of the type of active hurricane season we will have.  So the 2013 hurricane season will be active with.....
a) a slow start at the beginning of the season, but a sharp increase during the peak months and an active finish
b) active throughout the whole six month span and maybe even spilling into December
c) an active start, staying active through the peak months, but then an abrupt inactive finish towards the end

I go with "A", similar to the 2004 season, but maybe slightly more active towards the peak months.  I say we may have 20-11-5, when all is set and done :-)
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
108 trHUrrIXC5MMX: Can you do something about the blurriness [of the map in comments103&107]

Nope, the blurriness is the result of blowing up multiple thumbnails, and the thumbnails don't have enough pixels to show detail.

In place of the decently-scaled gif animations that could be easily image-linked, ya now hafta go to the WeatherPredictionCenter and click on the thumbnail leading to the SurfaceAnalysisRadarLoop for detail sufficient to be useful.

"To better reflect the diversity of our products and services..." Smiling faces, smiling faces sometimes...
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Pretty similar but OK...... :)


I'll change it..don't worry
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have 18-9-4 you told me on April 2.. updating them I guess?


Pretty similar but OK...... :)
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Re: #152 -- oy, Aussie... I hope none of the pilots are prone to seizures; I nearly had one just looking at those planes.... ;-)
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Quoting stormchaser19:


16-21 Tropical Storms
8-12 Hurricanes
4-6 Majors

Net numbers

19-10-5


I have 18-9-4 you told me on April 2.. updating them I guess?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Guys, Im working on my hurricane chart...

I do an update every Saturday, tell me your numbers if you want to see your name on there tomorrow (if not then wait another week).

[All if I fix a major and unintentional flaw that happened some minutes ago]


16-21 Tropical Storms
8-12 Hurricanes
4-6 Majors

Net numbers

19-10-5
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Quoting AussieStorm:


How much time to do these??







few minutes with several paint buckets... lol
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have no idea how SPC gets this..



when you've got this...



this...



and this...




try a different time... either way the 12z was much more disturbing..
It all depends on which run you look at but the potential is there.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
on some other note

these fellas have time to do this... but cool I guess



How much time to do these??





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Through 1964 the hurricane season ended on November 15th.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Guys, Im working on my hurricane chart...

I do an update every Saturday, tell me your numbers if you want to see your name on there tomorrow (if not then wait another week).

[All if I fix a major and unintentional flaw that happened some minutes ago]


18/9/5.
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Quoting Grothar:


I'm just a little old man who just sits and posts weather blogs. By the way, the first system should develop on May 17.
I wonder if they will ever start the Atlantic Hurricane Season on the 15th of May.
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Guys, Im working on my hurricane chart...

I do an update every Saturday, tell me your numbers if you want to see your name on there tomorrow (if not then wait another week).

[All if I fix a major and unintentional flaw that happened some minutes ago]
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.